TerraKeepKeeping Earth within its limits
Cloud-free satellite view around Flare field near Irkutsk (Russia) — 28 registered sites, with the finding area outlined
57.67°N 105.88°ENASA Blue Marble via GIBS · outline = finding area
Published

Unregistered night-time heat source burns 17 of 30 nights near Irkutsk flare field

Flare field near Irkutsk (Russia) — 28 registered sites · seen · published

A night-time heat detector on the NOAA-20 and NOAA-21 satellites picked up 7 persistent heat clusters in the flare field near Irkutsk over 2026-09-01 to 2026-09-30. Six match sites in the EOG flare registry (VNF) annual summaries. One does not: at 57.6817, 106.0828 it was lit on 17 of 30 nights, peaking at 33.21 MW, with no registered flare site within 2 km. A later pass on 2026-09-30 saw heat again at the same spot, at 13.13 MW — an independent confirmation of the heat, but not of its cause.

What this is not: the sensor cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, a refinery or a kiln. "New" here only means absent from the 2023 and 2024 annual registries — a flare too small or too often clouded for that product would also look new. Heat energy (FRP) is not burned volume, and unlit venting of methane would not show at all. No operator or owner is identified; this is a place, not a company.

What would change our mind: an asset registry match to an existing furnace or plant, a long cloud-free gap with no heat, or methane data from Sentinel-5P or EMIT pointing to a different process.

Written by AI, then checked by a separate reviewer before publication. Every claim points at the evidence below.

What we saw

  • NASA fire detections — 7 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-09-01…2026-09-30); new cluster (no VNF 2023 and 2024 site within 2 km) 17 nights, max 33.21 MW at 57.6817, 106.0828. (Sep 28, 2026) See the source ↗
  • NASA fire detections — 7 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-09-02…2026-10-01); new cluster (no VNF 2023 and 2024 site within 2 km) 18 nights, max 33.21 MW at 57.6817, 106.0828. (Sep 30, 2026) See the source ↗
  • NASA fire detections — Night-time heat with FRP ≥ 5 MW again at the flagged cluster on a later pass (2026-09-30). (Sep 30, 2026) See the source ↗

What it might not be

  • Thermal satellite data cannot distinguish a gas flare from a furnace, refinery or kiln.
  • "New" means only that no 2023 or 2024 registry flare site lies within 2 km; small or cloud-hidden flares are missing from that registry.
  • FRP is a single-pixel heat estimate, not flared gas volume, and saturates on the largest flares.
  • Clouds and smoke hide nights, so the 17-night count is a floor, not a total.
  • Unlit venting and cold methane releases are invisible to this sensor.
  • Only about two passes per night near 01:30 local time; brief flaring in between is missed.
  • No operator or ownership attribution is possible from these data.
  • Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.
  • Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.
  • FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.
  • Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.
  • No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.
  • Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.
  • The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week.
  • 'New flaring' only means no site of the VNF 2023/2024 annual summaries within 2 km: a flare too small or too cloudy for EOG's annual product, or a new furnace, also qualifies.

What would change our mind

Newer satellite images that show no change, a correction from the data source, or a reply with evidence from the ground. If that happens, the case is marked “Turned out wrong” — in public — and it stays on this site.

Why this was published

Two separate sources agreed — NASA fire detections, then NASA fire detections — and a reviewer checked the evidence before it went up.

Replies

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Ledger id 01a0f114-f624-709a-8b39-f3ae6bd11bca

Technical details rule, evidence ids, history, proof
Rule
flaring v1.0
Tier
T2
Tags
flaring, oil-gas, discovered, rus, rus_ups_105.8865e_57.8759n, new-flare
Confirmed
Yes — independent revisit signal, 2026-10-01
Rule FP rate
5.8 % · 3 of 52 decided
Location
57.67°N 105.88°E
Observed
2026-09-28
Opened
2026-09-30 by automatic rule flaring v1.0
  1. candidate
  2. confirmed
  3. published
  4. resolved

Evidence3

alertfirms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt

7 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-09-01…2026-09-30); new cluster (no VNF 2023 and 2024 site within 2 km) 17 nights, max 33.21 MW at 57.6817, 106.0828.

hotNightDetections 781maxFrp 52.61maxNights 17newClusters 1new_flare 1persistentClusters 7vnfMatched 6vnfTopBcm 0.504vnfTopKm 0.08vnfYear 2024
· flaring v1.0 · firms-flaring-flare-rus-57p9n-105p9e-2026-09-01-2026-09-30
Source ↗
alertfirms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt

7 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-09-02…2026-10-01); new cluster (no VNF 2023 and 2024 site within 2 km) 18 nights, max 33.21 MW at 57.6817, 106.0828.

hotNightDetections 788maxFrp 52.61maxNights 18newClusters 1new_flare 1persistentClusters 7vnfMatched 6vnfTopBcm 0.504vnfTopKm 0.09vnfYear 2024
· flaring v1.0 · firms-flaring-flare-rus-57p9n-105p9e-2026-09-02-2026-10-01
Source ↗
alertfirms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrtConfirming signal

Night-time heat with FRP ≥ 5 MW again at the flagged cluster on a later pass (2026-09-30).

clusters 1maxFrp 13.13
· flaring v1.0 · firms-flaring-flare-rus-57p9n-105p9e-2026-09-30-revisit
Source ↗

Context

ENSO El Niño · ONI +1.8

Publication gates

  • Evidence — 2 pieces from firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt — met
  • Independent confirmation — a different revisit (firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt), 2026-10-01 — met
  • Human approval — 1 of 2 needed at tier 2 — not met
  • Narration — AI-drafted by claude-opus-5 — met
Published
2026-10-01 by AI model
Narrated By
AI model
Reviewed By
AI model
Policy
2026-09-26-autonomous
Note
autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)

History6

  1. evidence added → publishedautomatic rule flaring v1.0
  2. status changed → publishedAI model
  3. reviewed → confirmedAI model
  4. narrated → confirmedAI model
  5. confirmed → confirmedautomatic rule flaring v1.0
  6. created → candidateautomatic rule flaring v1.0

Verify

Checkpoint
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1 · 1104 entries
Signed root
2d46ab865c78…d5686a
This case
6 signed events
Leaf
#1097 of 1104 — this case’s latest event
Leaf hash
49ae44d5a8b4…20d0e8
Proof
6-hash audit path
  1. 45b3c53b206e0599899dac0d7cadf8ab07ccfc7c8e7394353369575abb4c5315
  2. b5085375af98e42f412159a1017999c55bcba0d01491af2676d0b3ceb6e53690
  3. ae4a2a2604c6e65995d0d306cb0cd2a515b5791eae3e97bd7358e42ac3b268c7
  4. c975c829e374fe7df303dbffb1c3e80df6c273cc625d4b10d1dce405e61ce34e
  5. faf94375e7054adbd22fa0ead48c4d4d3a748de7b2b9cd5efbc8cf21e012ab03
  6. 8c9c126ddde5463be4c66b848b31cefa5e2e8b034ab906e8158680a170325566
Last event
4083082c9366…bf5c87
Note
Checkpoint text
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1
1104
LUarhlx4E7iZHtDXE5BrFb7xMhoCK404KhBp2snVaGo=

— earthdeck TkCXv/sH/NTGvayZVEMmgP9cZnDpvpCaJ9kK+Cb/ptytbf1au9W9DoMBSvoBcBgV8vaL/MaVF3YesXBKf/3RqhoFSgA=

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