{"finding":{"findingId":"01a0f114-f624-709a-8b39-f3ae6bd11bca","status":"published","tier":2,"rule":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5,"revisitHours":18}},"title":"New flaring near Irkutsk (Russia)","summary":"1 persistent VIIRS night-time heat cluster(s) near Irkutsk (Russia) are not in the flare registry: no site of the VNF 2023 and 2024 annual summaries within 2 km. One was lit 17 of the last 30 nights (max 33.21 MW) at 57.6817, 106.0828. It may be a new flare — or a furnace, or a flare too small for EOG's annual product; a later pass confirms the heat, not its cause.","geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[106.083,57.682]},"bbox":[105.52,57.34,106.24,57.99],"aoi":{"id":"flare-rus-57p9n-105p9e","name":"Flare field near Irkutsk (Russia) — 28 registered sites","tags":["flaring","oil-gas","discovered","rus","rus_ups_105.8865e_57.8759n","new-flare"]},"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[]},"blindSpots":["Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.","Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.","FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.","Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.","No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.","Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.","The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week.","'New flaring' only means no site of the VNF 2023/2024 annual summaries within 2 km: a flare too small or too cloudy for EOG's annual product, or a new furnace, also qualifies."],"observedAt":"2026-09-28T00:00:00Z","createdAt":"2026-09-30T06:50:32.883Z","updatedAt":"2026-10-01T06:50:35.097Z","createdBy":"system:flaring@1.0","confirmed":{"at":"2026-10-01T00:50:33.169Z","independence":"revisit","signal":{"id":"firms-flaring-flare-rus-57p9n-105p9e-2026-09-30-revisit","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-30T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[105.52,57.34,106.24,57.99],"clusterKm":1,"days":2,"limit":50,"minFrp":5,"minNights":1,"vnf":false}},"summary":"Night-time heat with FRP ≥ 5 MW again at the flagged cluster on a later pass (2026-09-30).","values":{"clusters":1,"maxFrp":13.13}}},"evidence":[{"id":"firms-flaring-flare-rus-57p9n-105p9e-2026-09-01-2026-09-30","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-28T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[105.52,57.34,106.24,57.99],"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"limit":20,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5}},"summary":"7 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-09-01…2026-09-30); new cluster (no VNF 2023 and 2024 site within 2 km) 17 nights, max 33.21 MW at 57.6817, 106.0828.","values":{"hotNightDetections":781,"maxFrp":52.61,"maxNights":17,"newClusters":1,"new_flare":1,"persistentClusters":7,"vnfMatched":6,"vnfTopBcm":0.504,"vnfTopKm":0.08,"vnfYear":2024}},{"id":"firms-flaring-flare-rus-57p9n-105p9e-2026-09-02-2026-10-01","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-30T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[105.52,57.34,106.24,57.99],"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"limit":20,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5}},"summary":"7 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-09-02…2026-10-01); new cluster (no VNF 2023 and 2024 site within 2 km) 18 nights, max 33.21 MW at 57.6817, 106.0828.","values":{"hotNightDetections":788,"maxFrp":52.61,"maxNights":18,"newClusters":1,"new_flare":1,"persistentClusters":7,"vnfMatched":6,"vnfTopBcm":0.504,"vnfTopKm":0.09,"vnfYear":2024}}],"attribution":null,"narration":{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0f50d-fbe9-7da4-a991-c4027f4532db","findingId":"01a0f114-f624-709a-8b39-f3ae6bd11bca","at":"2026-10-01T01:22:09.513Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"8b2294a6df97f93774a83e283bd72fe6c772ba263aaeb77006243e8f2dfbb61f","kind":"narrated","text":"Unregistered night-time heat source burns 17 of 30 nights near Irkutsk flare field\n\nA night-time heat detector on the NOAA-20 and NOAA-21 satellites picked up 7 persistent heat clusters in the flare field near Irkutsk over 2026-09-01 to 2026-09-30. Six match sites in the EOG flare registry (VNF) annual summaries. One does not: at 57.6817, 106.0828 it was lit on 17 of 30 nights, peaking at 33.21 MW, with no registered flare site within 2 km. A later pass on 2026-09-30 saw heat again at the same spot, at 13.13 MW — an independent confirmation of the heat, but not of its cause.\n\nWhat this is not: the sensor cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, a refinery or a kiln. \"New\" here only means absent from the 2023 and 2024 annual registries — a flare too small or too often clouded for that product would also look new. Heat energy (FRP) is not burned volume, and unlit venting of methane would not show at all. No operator or owner is identified; this is a place, not a company.\n\nWhat would change our mind: an asset registry match to an existing furnace or plant, a long cloud-free gap with no heat, or methane data from Sentinel-5P or EMIT pointing to a different process.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Nights lit out of 30 at the unregistered cluster: 17 [firms-flaring-flare-rus-57p9n-105p9e-2026-09-01-2026-09-30]\n- Peak heat energy at that cluster (MW): 33.21 [firms-flaring-flare-rus-57p9n-105p9e-2026-09-01-2026-09-30]\n- Persistent night-time clusters in the field: 7 [firms-flaring-flare-rus-57p9n-105p9e-2026-09-01-2026-09-30]\n- Clusters matched to the flare registry: 6 [firms-flaring-flare-rus-57p9n-105p9e-2026-09-01-2026-09-30]\n- Clusters with no registry site within 2 km: 1 [firms-flaring-flare-rus-57p9n-105p9e-2026-09-01-2026-09-30]\n- Heat energy on the confirming pass (MW): 13.13 [firms-flaring-flare-rus-57p9n-105p9e-2026-09-30-revisit]\n\nConfidence: medium\nCaveats:\n- Thermal satellite data cannot distinguish a gas flare from a furnace, refinery or kiln.\n- \"New\" means only that no 2023 or 2024 registry flare site lies within 2 km; small or cloud-hidden flares are missing from that registry.\n- FRP is a single-pixel heat estimate, not flared gas volume, and saturates on the largest flares.\n- Clouds and smoke hide nights, so the 17-night count is a floor, not a total.\n- Unlit venting and cold methane releases are invisible to this sensor.\n- Only about two passes per night near 01:30 local time; brief flaring in between is missed.\n- No operator or ownership attribution is possible from these data.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"bdec0090420385f37a01724caabd576e9724a1b23e61f43318a1388c3bcf929a","transcriptSha256":"97792a9a60501b53cb1a3c643fe397e292467848d72afcdddac108cae9a01abd","evidenceRefs":["firms-flaring-flare-rus-57p9n-105p9e-2026-09-01-2026-09-30","firms-flaring-flare-rus-57p9n-105p9e-2026-09-30-revisit"]},"reviews":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0f50e-1c25-7577-b667-5df5ee0a3292","findingId":"01a0f114-f624-709a-8b39-f3ae6bd11bca","at":"2026-10-01T01:22:17.765Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"081308158db8a2c053db29007fd38f8c3130a4aad3cdb61d9e3d3fbcaf2af188","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":2,"note":"All numeric claims (7 clusters, 6 matched, 1 new, 17/30 nights, 33.21 MW, 13.13 MW revisit) trace directly to the cited evidence fields.; Narration clearly states the heat-vs-cause ambiguity, alternative explanations (furnace, refinery, kiln), registry limitations, FRP-vs-volume caveat, cloud/pass gaps, and lack of operator attribution — matching the blind spots list.; No individual persons are named or identifiable; only a place and generic satellite data are discussed.; AOI is not tagged or flagged as a control site (control: false), consistent with a legitimate discovery finding suitable for publication.","verdict":"publish"}],"notifications":[],"replies":[],"retracted":null,"history":[{"at":"2026-09-30T06:50:32.883Z","kind":"created","status":"candidate","actor":"system:flaring@1.0"},{"at":"2026-10-01T00:50:33.169Z","kind":"confirmed","status":"confirmed","actor":"system:flaring@1.0"},{"at":"2026-10-01T01:22:09.513Z","kind":"narrated","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-opus-5"},{"at":"2026-10-01T01:22:17.765Z","kind":"reviewed","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"},{"at":"2026-10-01T01:22:17.793Z","kind":"status_changed","status":"published","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"},{"at":"2026-10-01T06:50:35.097Z","kind":"evidence_added","status":"published","actor":"system:flaring@1.0"}],"eventCount":6,"lastEventHash":"4083082c93664437769b137b979ef0200d85c562226cb07fbeb0f7bbf9bf5c87"},"events":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0f114-f625-7cf8-99da-2023d3d789f9","findingId":"01a0f114-f624-709a-8b39-f3ae6bd11bca","at":"2026-09-30T06:50:32.883Z","actor":"system:flaring@1.0","prev":null,"kind":"created","rule":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5,"revisitHours":18}},"title":"New flaring near Irkutsk (Russia)","summary":"1 persistent VIIRS night-time heat cluster(s) near Irkutsk (Russia) are not in the flare registry: no site of the VNF 2023 and 2024 annual summaries within 2 km. One was lit 17 of the last 30 nights (max 33.21 MW) at 57.6817, 106.0828. It may be a new flare — or a furnace, or a flare too small for EOG's annual product; a later pass confirms the heat, not its cause.","tier":2,"geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[106.083,57.682]},"bbox":[105.52,57.34,106.24,57.99],"aoi":{"id":"flare-rus-57p9n-105p9e","name":"Flare field near Irkutsk (Russia) — 28 registered sites","tags":["flaring","oil-gas","discovered","rus","rus_ups_105.8865e_57.8759n","new-flare"]},"observedAt":"2026-09-28T00:00:00Z","evidence":[{"id":"firms-flaring-flare-rus-57p9n-105p9e-2026-09-01-2026-09-30","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-28T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[105.52,57.34,106.24,57.99],"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"limit":20,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5}},"summary":"7 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-09-01…2026-09-30); new cluster (no VNF 2023 and 2024 site within 2 km) 17 nights, max 33.21 MW at 57.6817, 106.0828.","values":{"hotNightDetections":781,"maxFrp":52.61,"maxNights":17,"newClusters":1,"new_flare":1,"persistentClusters":7,"vnfMatched":6,"vnfTopBcm":0.504,"vnfTopKm":0.08,"vnfYear":2024}}],"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[]},"blindSpots":["Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.","Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.","FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.","Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.","No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.","Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.","The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week.","'New flaring' only means no site of the VNF 2023/2024 annual summaries within 2 km: a flare too small or too cloudy for EOG's annual product, or a new furnace, also qualifies."]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0f4f1-a7ea-7251-8cc3-b7ff88fd6017","findingId":"01a0f114-f624-709a-8b39-f3ae6bd11bca","at":"2026-10-01T00:50:33.169Z","actor":"system:flaring@1.0","prev":"3c25cb640abfd350b16d47d116ece866353340c83d8a484732f2a5cf1d5b0964","kind":"confirmed","signal":{"id":"firms-flaring-flare-rus-57p9n-105p9e-2026-09-30-revisit","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-30T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[105.52,57.34,106.24,57.99],"clusterKm":1,"days":2,"limit":50,"minFrp":5,"minNights":1,"vnf":false}},"summary":"Night-time heat with FRP ≥ 5 MW again at the flagged cluster on a later pass (2026-09-30).","values":{"clusters":1,"maxFrp":13.13}},"independence":"revisit"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0f50d-fbe9-7da4-a991-c4027f4532db","findingId":"01a0f114-f624-709a-8b39-f3ae6bd11bca","at":"2026-10-01T01:22:09.513Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"8b2294a6df97f93774a83e283bd72fe6c772ba263aaeb77006243e8f2dfbb61f","kind":"narrated","text":"Unregistered night-time heat source burns 17 of 30 nights near Irkutsk flare field\n\nA night-time heat detector on the NOAA-20 and NOAA-21 satellites picked up 7 persistent heat clusters in the flare field near Irkutsk over 2026-09-01 to 2026-09-30. Six match sites in the EOG flare registry (VNF) annual summaries. One does not: at 57.6817, 106.0828 it was lit on 17 of 30 nights, peaking at 33.21 MW, with no registered flare site within 2 km. A later pass on 2026-09-30 saw heat again at the same spot, at 13.13 MW — an independent confirmation of the heat, but not of its cause.\n\nWhat this is not: the sensor cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, a refinery or a kiln. \"New\" here only means absent from the 2023 and 2024 annual registries — a flare too small or too often clouded for that product would also look new. Heat energy (FRP) is not burned volume, and unlit venting of methane would not show at all. No operator or owner is identified; this is a place, not a company.\n\nWhat would change our mind: an asset registry match to an existing furnace or plant, a long cloud-free gap with no heat, or methane data from Sentinel-5P or EMIT pointing to a different process.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Nights lit out of 30 at the unregistered cluster: 17 [firms-flaring-flare-rus-57p9n-105p9e-2026-09-01-2026-09-30]\n- Peak heat energy at that cluster (MW): 33.21 [firms-flaring-flare-rus-57p9n-105p9e-2026-09-01-2026-09-30]\n- Persistent night-time clusters in the field: 7 [firms-flaring-flare-rus-57p9n-105p9e-2026-09-01-2026-09-30]\n- Clusters matched to the flare registry: 6 [firms-flaring-flare-rus-57p9n-105p9e-2026-09-01-2026-09-30]\n- Clusters with no registry site within 2 km: 1 [firms-flaring-flare-rus-57p9n-105p9e-2026-09-01-2026-09-30]\n- Heat energy on the confirming pass (MW): 13.13 [firms-flaring-flare-rus-57p9n-105p9e-2026-09-30-revisit]\n\nConfidence: medium\nCaveats:\n- Thermal satellite data cannot distinguish a gas flare from a furnace, refinery or kiln.\n- \"New\" means only that no 2023 or 2024 registry flare site lies within 2 km; small or cloud-hidden flares are missing from that registry.\n- FRP is a single-pixel heat estimate, not flared gas volume, and saturates on the largest flares.\n- Clouds and smoke hide nights, so the 17-night count is a floor, not a total.\n- Unlit venting and cold methane releases are invisible to this sensor.\n- Only about two passes per night near 01:30 local time; brief flaring in between is missed.\n- No operator or ownership attribution is possible from these data.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"bdec0090420385f37a01724caabd576e9724a1b23e61f43318a1388c3bcf929a","transcriptSha256":"97792a9a60501b53cb1a3c643fe397e292467848d72afcdddac108cae9a01abd","evidenceRefs":["firms-flaring-flare-rus-57p9n-105p9e-2026-09-01-2026-09-30","firms-flaring-flare-rus-57p9n-105p9e-2026-09-30-revisit"]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0f50e-1c25-7577-b667-5df5ee0a3292","findingId":"01a0f114-f624-709a-8b39-f3ae6bd11bca","at":"2026-10-01T01:22:17.765Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"081308158db8a2c053db29007fd38f8c3130a4aad3cdb61d9e3d3fbcaf2af188","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":2,"note":"All numeric claims (7 clusters, 6 matched, 1 new, 17/30 nights, 33.21 MW, 13.13 MW revisit) trace directly to the cited evidence fields.; Narration clearly states the heat-vs-cause ambiguity, alternative explanations (furnace, refinery, kiln), registry limitations, FRP-vs-volume caveat, cloud/pass gaps, and lack of operator attribution — matching the blind spots list.; No individual persons are named or identifiable; only a place and generic satellite data are discussed.; AOI is not tagged or flagged as a control site (control: false), consistent with a legitimate discovery finding suitable for publication.","verdict":"publish"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0f50e-1c41-741b-980d-8a3e41c85707","findingId":"01a0f114-f624-709a-8b39-f3ae6bd11bca","at":"2026-10-01T01:22:17.793Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"2b482cf8513f2d6afcc4cacc4c5588ff08347e8856a3d6370ed6918c9bd50a49","kind":"status_changed","from":"confirmed","to":"published","reason":"autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)","gates":{"narratedBy":"model:claude-opus-5","reviewedBy":["model:claude-sonnet-5"],"policy":"2026-09-26-autonomous"}},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0f63b-54fa-7cf6-b721-f13a1d793642","findingId":"01a0f114-f624-709a-8b39-f3ae6bd11bca","at":"2026-10-01T06:50:35.097Z","actor":"system:flaring@1.0","prev":"c926f8d5f0b747421c43a8e9cd6c32700c27e42a81127a75549c487bd87d66a8","kind":"evidence_added","evidence":[{"id":"firms-flaring-flare-rus-57p9n-105p9e-2026-09-02-2026-10-01","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-30T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[105.52,57.34,106.24,57.99],"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"limit":20,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5}},"summary":"7 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-09-02…2026-10-01); new cluster (no VNF 2023 and 2024 site within 2 km) 18 nights, max 33.21 MW at 57.6817, 106.0828.","values":{"hotNightDetections":788,"maxFrp":52.61,"maxNights":18,"newClusters":1,"new_flare":1,"persistentClusters":7,"vnfMatched":6,"vnfTopBcm":0.504,"vnfTopKm":0.09,"vnfYear":2024}}]}],"inclusion":{"index":1097,"leafHash":"49ae44d5a8b4476df85c083f1fef020dbde0d0528c325596f44a556ce620d0e8","proof":["45b3c53b206e0599899dac0d7cadf8ab07ccfc7c8e7394353369575abb4c5315","b5085375af98e42f412159a1017999c55bcba0d01491af2676d0b3ceb6e53690","ae4a2a2604c6e65995d0d306cb0cd2a515b5791eae3e97bd7358e42ac3b268c7","c975c829e374fe7df303dbffb1c3e80df6c273cc625d4b10d1dce405e61ce34e","faf94375e7054adbd22fa0ead48c4d4d3a748de7b2b9cd5efbc8cf21e012ab03","8c9c126ddde5463be4c66b848b31cefa5e2e8b034ab906e8158680a170325566"],"size":1104,"root":"2d46ab865c7813b8991ed0d713906b15bef1321a022b8d382a1069dac9d5686a"}}