TerraKeepKeeping Earth within its limits
Cloud-free satellite view around Parque Nacional Serra Das Confusões (BRA), with the finding area outlined
9.11°S 43.75°WNASA Blue Marble via GIBS · outline = finding area
Published

Nine hot fire detections inside Serra das Confusões National Park, with more the next day

Parque Nacional Serra Das Confusões (BRA) · seen · published

Satellite heat sensing (VIIRS on NOAA-20) picked up 9 detections with fire radiative power at or above 20 MW over two days inside the watched boundary of Parque Nacional Serra das Confusões in Brazil, the hottest at 57.8 MW. A later pass on 29 September found 4 more hot detections in the same area, which is the independent check this finding needed. Fire density inside the boundary ran about 1.584 times the surrounding 30 km neighbourhood (4.662 versus 2.942 hot detections per deg²).

What this is not: it is not evidence of forest clearing, and it does not say who lit anything or why. The sensor cannot separate a wildfire from managed, agricultural or legally prescribed burning. The season is running under a strong El Niño (ONI 1.8), a pattern associated with drier, more fire-prone conditions in this region. The watched area is a bounding box, not the park's legal polygon, so some detections may sit outside the park.

What would change our mind: mapping against the legal boundary placing the heat outside the park, a burn permit or management record covering these dates, or later passes and imagery showing a brief, contained burn scar.

Written by AI, then checked by a separate reviewer before publication. Every claim points at the evidence below.

What we saw

  • NASA fire detections — 9 detections with FRP ≥ 20 MW in 2 d (max 57.8 MW). (Sep 28, 2026) See the source ↗
  • NASA fire detections — 4 hot detections again on a later pass (2026-09-29). (Sep 29, 2026)

What it might not be

  • Cannot distinguish wildfire from managed, agricultural or legally prescribed burning.
  • Boundary used is the watchlist bounding box, not the park's legal polygon.
  • VIIRS misses fires under cloud or smoke, and small or short fires between roughly two daily overpasses.
  • A data source outage would look like calm; the default source is NOAA-20.
  • No statement about cause or responsibility; that needs land-tenure and concession data.
  • Cannot tell wildfire from managed burning, agricultural fire or a legal prescribed burn.
  • VIIRS misses fires under cloud/smoke and small or short-lived fires between overpasses (~2/day).
  • The watched boundary is the watchlist's bbox, not the legal polygon, until protected_areas (M3) lands.
  • S-NPP products end 1 Nov 2026 — the default source is NOAA-20; a source outage looks like calm.
  • Says nothing about cause or responsibility; attribution needs land-tenure and concession layers.

What would change our mind

Newer satellite images that show no change, a correction from the data source, or a reply with evidence from the ground. If that happens, the case is marked “Turned out wrong” — in public — and it stays on this site.

Why this was published

Two separate sources agreed — NASA fire detections, then NASA fire detections — and a reviewer checked the evidence before it went up.

Replies

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Ledger id 01a0ea8b-fc7f-72fe-a509-7a1740efacbd

Technical details rule, evidence ids, history, proof
Rule
fires_in_protected v1.0
Tier
T1
Tags
protected-area, discovered, bra, iucn-ii, park
Confirmed
Yes — independent revisit signal, 2026-09-29
Rule FP rate
0 % · 0 of 12 decided
Location
9.11°S 43.75°W
Observed
2026-09-28
Opened
2026-09-29 by automatic rule fires_in_protected v1.0
  1. candidate
  2. confirmed
  3. published
  4. resolved

Evidence2

alertfirms-viirs_noaa20_nrt

9 detections with FRP ≥ 20 MW in 2 d (max 57.8 MW).

detections 9maxFrp 57.8
· fires_in v1.0 · firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-198366-2026-09-28
Source ↗
alertfirms-viirs_noaa20_nrtConfirming signal

4 hot detections again on a later pass (2026-09-29).

detections 4
· fires_in v1.0 · firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-198366-2026-09-29-revisit

Context

1.58×
AOI vs its 30 km neighbourhood
AOI
4.662
Ring
2.942
Metric
hot detections per deg²
ENSO El Niño · ONI +1.8

Publication gates

  • Evidence — 1 piece from firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt — met
  • Independent confirmation — a different revisit (firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt), 2026-09-29 — met
  • Human approval — 1 of 1 needed at tier 1 — met
  • Narration — AI-drafted by claude-opus-5 — met
Published
2026-09-30 by AI model
Narrated By
AI model
Reviewed By
AI model
Policy
2026-09-26-autonomous
Note
autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)

History5

  1. status changed → publishedAI model
  2. reviewed → confirmedAI model
  3. narrated → confirmedAI model
  4. confirmed → confirmedautomatic rule fires_in_protected v1.0
  5. created → candidateautomatic rule fires_in_protected v1.0

Verify

Checkpoint
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1 · 971 entries
Signed root
65becba35e7b…cfb1ac
This case
5 signed events
Leaf
#961 of 971 — this case’s latest event
Leaf hash
1fcb3bf92fe9…061b51
Proof
8-hash audit path
  1. a6776af07b28b49817f20c41514f8f482e2d060a0441b9757f2924ad204fbcbc
  2. 4e062e9c3af961e45acdfba184cad50247e31eaee8c0100a650528532732f8d3
  3. a657bd075fc428919af3b2109867b254e973b42459d11f67c8bc95dfefa362c7
  4. f03d09f61778113da25d1abb1fd48d266ab0d3a8ba35563ff54eb6dd55459da7
  5. 86d57304ddba91cb44fb33ac9e4294873940805fa57f40f04b5b131c5eec4764
  6. d4a69eb9bd4aba2b04a0c06f8365d5c370a5591fa80d0e8a9962a94eea222b01
  7. b151de5eaefddf3d1cfc86f94cdbc3995ed5d406a6c0acfc99649a5d48d50794
  8. 5f7580b7f5a7f09ff7675565fb36c19876079a6c101f721419a5a07a7a23b1c1
Last event
6a7878b34df7…24bf8e
Note
Checkpoint text
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1
971
Zb7Lo157ettQqPmu0tm88BnWSkMC3ZJMEFFRbmvPsaw=

— earthdeck TkCXvy4ab1W8aoaOb+pzCGCDnG5hglritooG+HSh5E2eK5bX/GOa8ngRawRBFFq9xkoAkQHY2WV8CTtkhuUX2a2EhA8=

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