{"finding":{"findingId":"01a0ea8b-fc7f-72fe-a509-7a1740efacbd","status":"published","tier":1,"rule":{"name":"fires_in_protected","version":"1.0","params":{"dayRange":2,"minDetections":5,"minFrp":20,"revisitHours":18,"source":"VIIRS_NOAA20_NRT"}},"title":"Fire cluster inside Parque Nacional Serra Das Confusões (BRA): 9 hot detections","summary":"9 VIIRS detections with fire radiative power ≥ 20 MW within 2 days inside the watched boundary; density 1.584× the 30 km neighbourhood. Awaiting an independent signal (EONET event or a later pass).","geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[-44.15,-8.97]},"bbox":[-44.47,-9.79,-43.04,-8.44],"aoi":{"id":"wdpa-198366","name":"Parque Nacional Serra Das Confusões (BRA)","tags":["protected-area","discovered","bra","iucn-ii","park"]},"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[],"baseline":{"metric":"hot detections per deg²","ringKm":30,"aoiValue":4.662,"regionalValue":2.942,"ratio":1.584}},"blindSpots":["Cannot tell wildfire from managed burning, agricultural fire or a legal prescribed burn.","VIIRS misses fires under cloud/smoke and small or short-lived fires between overpasses (~2/day).","The watched boundary is the watchlist's bbox, not the legal polygon, until protected_areas (M3) lands.","S-NPP products end 1 Nov 2026 — the default source is NOAA-20; a source outage looks like calm.","Says nothing about cause or responsibility; attribution needs land-tenure and concession layers."],"observedAt":"2026-09-28T00:00:00Z","createdAt":"2026-09-29T00:20:15.256Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-30T01:23:59.981Z","createdBy":"system:fires_in_protected@1.0","confirmed":{"at":"2026-09-29T18:20:19.324Z","independence":"revisit","signal":{"id":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-198366-2026-09-29-revisit","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-29T00:00:00Z","method":{"name":"fires_in","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[-44.47,-9.79,-43.04,-8.44],"dayRange":1,"minFrp":20,"source":"VIIRS_NOAA20_NRT"}},"summary":"4 hot detections again on a later pass (2026-09-29).","values":{"detections":4}}},"evidence":[{"id":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-198366-2026-09-28","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-28T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"fires_in","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[-44.47,-9.79,-43.04,-8.44],"dayRange":2,"minFrp":20,"source":"VIIRS_NOAA20_NRT"}},"summary":"9 detections with FRP ≥ 20 MW in 2 d (max 57.8 MW).","values":{"detections":9,"maxFrp":57.8}}],"attribution":null,"narration":{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0efe9-40c4-7dc7-a3dc-53344e9ed49b","findingId":"01a0ea8b-fc7f-72fe-a509-7a1740efacbd","at":"2026-09-30T01:23:56.228Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"9bd1600879e2cec8f496ae41e2d1555347a036c863e972a6252f6f68942f55e1","kind":"narrated","text":"Nine hot fire detections inside Serra das Confusões National Park, with more the next day\n\nSatellite heat sensing (VIIRS on NOAA-20) picked up 9 detections with fire radiative power at or above 20 MW over two days inside the watched boundary of Parque Nacional Serra das Confusões in Brazil, the hottest at 57.8 MW. A later pass on 29 September found 4 more hot detections in the same area, which is the independent check this finding needed. Fire density inside the boundary ran about 1.584 times the surrounding 30 km neighbourhood (4.662 versus 2.942 hot detections per deg²).\n\nWhat this is not: it is not evidence of forest clearing, and it does not say who lit anything or why. The sensor cannot separate a wildfire from managed, agricultural or legally prescribed burning. The season is running under a strong El Niño (ONI 1.8), a pattern associated with drier, more fire-prone conditions in this region. The watched area is a bounding box, not the park's legal polygon, so some detections may sit outside the park.\n\nWhat would change our mind: mapping against the legal boundary placing the heat outside the park, a burn permit or management record covering these dates, or later passes and imagery showing a brief, contained burn scar.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Hot detections (FRP ≥ 20 MW, 2 days): 9 [firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-198366-2026-09-28]\n- Strongest detection (MW): 57.8 [firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-198366-2026-09-28]\n- Detections on the confirming later pass: 4 [firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-198366-2026-09-29-revisit]\n\nConfidence: medium\nCaveats:\n- Cannot distinguish wildfire from managed, agricultural or legally prescribed burning.\n- Boundary used is the watchlist bounding box, not the park's legal polygon.\n- VIIRS misses fires under cloud or smoke, and small or short fires between roughly two daily overpasses.\n- A data source outage would look like calm; the default source is NOAA-20.\n- No statement about cause or responsibility; that needs land-tenure and concession data.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"9d8d26e1faddfbaed24b312a2af4783c9d97c6581421169321e34d44cc27abc4","transcriptSha256":"6a8cc15a16ed20c74cd13b62937d7163162861f9be211f5d3a987a9a0094470f","evidenceRefs":["firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-198366-2026-09-28","firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-198366-2026-09-29-revisit"]},"reviews":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0efe9-4f59-76d7-a988-5d66e8c2a2ab","findingId":"01a0ea8b-fc7f-72fe-a509-7a1740efacbd","at":"2026-09-30T01:23:59.961Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"877301fad9a7b3bb0e95a292e320c08c14d3cebf81788099d344a22fadfe440a","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":1,"note":"All numeric claims (9 detections, 57.8 MW max, 4 on revisit, 1.584x density ratio, 4.662 vs 2.942) match evidence exactly; Blind spots are thoroughly acknowledged: burn-type ambiguity, bbox vs legal polygon, VIIRS detection limits, source outage risk, and lack of attribution; No individuals named; only place and organizational/source references used; AOI is tagged as protected-area/discovered, not control, and finding is fit for public record as a real (non-control) detection","verdict":"publish"}],"notifications":[],"replies":[],"retracted":null,"history":[{"at":"2026-09-29T00:20:15.256Z","kind":"created","status":"candidate","actor":"system:fires_in_protected@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-29T18:20:19.324Z","kind":"confirmed","status":"confirmed","actor":"system:fires_in_protected@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-30T01:23:56.228Z","kind":"narrated","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-opus-5"},{"at":"2026-09-30T01:23:59.961Z","kind":"reviewed","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"},{"at":"2026-09-30T01:23:59.981Z","kind":"status_changed","status":"published","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"}],"eventCount":5,"lastEventHash":"6a7878b34df7a14fe57a93e3b96cda7c056e0f144503121a9fb697b33724bf8e"},"events":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0ea8b-fc7f-75a8-8db8-9da96b08d1f3","findingId":"01a0ea8b-fc7f-72fe-a509-7a1740efacbd","at":"2026-09-29T00:20:15.256Z","actor":"system:fires_in_protected@1.0","prev":null,"kind":"created","rule":{"name":"fires_in_protected","version":"1.0","params":{"dayRange":2,"minDetections":5,"minFrp":20,"revisitHours":18,"source":"VIIRS_NOAA20_NRT"}},"title":"Fire cluster inside Parque Nacional Serra Das Confusões (BRA): 9 hot detections","summary":"9 VIIRS detections with fire radiative power ≥ 20 MW within 2 days inside the watched boundary; density 1.584× the 30 km neighbourhood. Awaiting an independent signal (EONET event or a later pass).","tier":1,"geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[-44.15,-8.97]},"bbox":[-44.47,-9.79,-43.04,-8.44],"aoi":{"id":"wdpa-198366","name":"Parque Nacional Serra Das Confusões (BRA)","tags":["protected-area","discovered","bra","iucn-ii","park"]},"observedAt":"2026-09-28T00:00:00Z","evidence":[{"id":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-198366-2026-09-28","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-28T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"fires_in","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[-44.47,-9.79,-43.04,-8.44],"dayRange":2,"minFrp":20,"source":"VIIRS_NOAA20_NRT"}},"summary":"9 detections with FRP ≥ 20 MW in 2 d (max 57.8 MW).","values":{"detections":9,"maxFrp":57.8}}],"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[],"baseline":{"metric":"hot detections per deg²","ringKm":30,"aoiValue":4.662,"regionalValue":2.942,"ratio":1.584}},"blindSpots":["Cannot tell wildfire from managed burning, agricultural fire or a legal prescribed burn.","VIIRS misses fires under cloud/smoke and small or short-lived fires between overpasses (~2/day).","The watched boundary is the watchlist's bbox, not the legal polygon, until protected_areas (M3) lands.","S-NPP products end 1 Nov 2026 — the default source is NOAA-20; a source outage looks like calm.","Says nothing about cause or responsibility; attribution needs land-tenure and concession layers."]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0ee67-cb46-75df-b233-1357d3b2b636","findingId":"01a0ea8b-fc7f-72fe-a509-7a1740efacbd","at":"2026-09-29T18:20:19.324Z","actor":"system:fires_in_protected@1.0","prev":"145f7e6c8594c92e0788272b139772bc95a7ec912c0712c34019a27c93f3fc2a","kind":"confirmed","signal":{"id":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-198366-2026-09-29-revisit","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-29T00:00:00Z","method":{"name":"fires_in","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[-44.47,-9.79,-43.04,-8.44],"dayRange":1,"minFrp":20,"source":"VIIRS_NOAA20_NRT"}},"summary":"4 hot detections again on a later pass (2026-09-29).","values":{"detections":4}},"independence":"revisit"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0efe9-40c4-7dc7-a3dc-53344e9ed49b","findingId":"01a0ea8b-fc7f-72fe-a509-7a1740efacbd","at":"2026-09-30T01:23:56.228Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"9bd1600879e2cec8f496ae41e2d1555347a036c863e972a6252f6f68942f55e1","kind":"narrated","text":"Nine hot fire detections inside Serra das Confusões National Park, with more the next day\n\nSatellite heat sensing (VIIRS on NOAA-20) picked up 9 detections with fire radiative power at or above 20 MW over two days inside the watched boundary of Parque Nacional Serra das Confusões in Brazil, the hottest at 57.8 MW. A later pass on 29 September found 4 more hot detections in the same area, which is the independent check this finding needed. Fire density inside the boundary ran about 1.584 times the surrounding 30 km neighbourhood (4.662 versus 2.942 hot detections per deg²).\n\nWhat this is not: it is not evidence of forest clearing, and it does not say who lit anything or why. The sensor cannot separate a wildfire from managed, agricultural or legally prescribed burning. The season is running under a strong El Niño (ONI 1.8), a pattern associated with drier, more fire-prone conditions in this region. The watched area is a bounding box, not the park's legal polygon, so some detections may sit outside the park.\n\nWhat would change our mind: mapping against the legal boundary placing the heat outside the park, a burn permit or management record covering these dates, or later passes and imagery showing a brief, contained burn scar.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Hot detections (FRP ≥ 20 MW, 2 days): 9 [firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-198366-2026-09-28]\n- Strongest detection (MW): 57.8 [firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-198366-2026-09-28]\n- Detections on the confirming later pass: 4 [firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-198366-2026-09-29-revisit]\n\nConfidence: medium\nCaveats:\n- Cannot distinguish wildfire from managed, agricultural or legally prescribed burning.\n- Boundary used is the watchlist bounding box, not the park's legal polygon.\n- VIIRS misses fires under cloud or smoke, and small or short fires between roughly two daily overpasses.\n- A data source outage would look like calm; the default source is NOAA-20.\n- No statement about cause or responsibility; that needs land-tenure and concession data.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"9d8d26e1faddfbaed24b312a2af4783c9d97c6581421169321e34d44cc27abc4","transcriptSha256":"6a8cc15a16ed20c74cd13b62937d7163162861f9be211f5d3a987a9a0094470f","evidenceRefs":["firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-198366-2026-09-28","firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-198366-2026-09-29-revisit"]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0efe9-4f59-76d7-a988-5d66e8c2a2ab","findingId":"01a0ea8b-fc7f-72fe-a509-7a1740efacbd","at":"2026-09-30T01:23:59.961Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"877301fad9a7b3bb0e95a292e320c08c14d3cebf81788099d344a22fadfe440a","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":1,"note":"All numeric claims (9 detections, 57.8 MW max, 4 on revisit, 1.584x density ratio, 4.662 vs 2.942) match evidence exactly; Blind spots are thoroughly acknowledged: burn-type ambiguity, bbox vs legal polygon, VIIRS detection limits, source outage risk, and lack of attribution; No individuals named; only place and organizational/source references used; AOI is tagged as protected-area/discovered, not control, and finding is fit for public record as a real (non-control) detection","verdict":"publish"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0efe9-4f6d-70d5-9733-8fb987126722","findingId":"01a0ea8b-fc7f-72fe-a509-7a1740efacbd","at":"2026-09-30T01:23:59.981Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"58a8b4cfc4e9b947ebcccd2fdd2431fbe62350d4de7e97ad48b881cfb0463f77","kind":"status_changed","from":"confirmed","to":"published","reason":"autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)","gates":{"narratedBy":"model:claude-opus-5","reviewedBy":["model:claude-sonnet-5"],"policy":"2026-09-26-autonomous"}}],"inclusion":{"index":961,"leafHash":"1fcb3bf92fe975889d354e06541750d594b2b8f5814a4159b9f8ff3f59061b51","proof":["a6776af07b28b49817f20c41514f8f482e2d060a0441b9757f2924ad204fbcbc","4e062e9c3af961e45acdfba184cad50247e31eaee8c0100a650528532732f8d3","a657bd075fc428919af3b2109867b254e973b42459d11f67c8bc95dfefa362c7","f03d09f61778113da25d1abb1fd48d266ab0d3a8ba35563ff54eb6dd55459da7","86d57304ddba91cb44fb33ac9e4294873940805fa57f40f04b5b131c5eec4764","d4a69eb9bd4aba2b04a0c06f8365d5c370a5591fa80d0e8a9962a94eea222b01","b151de5eaefddf3d1cfc86f94cdbc3995ed5d406a6c0acfc99649a5d48d50794","5f7580b7f5a7f09ff7675565fb36c19876079a6c101f721419a5a07a7a23b1c1"],"size":971,"root":"65becba35e7b7adb50a8f9aed2d9bcf019d64a4302dd924c1051516e6bcfb1ac"}}