TerraKeepKeeping Earth within its limits
Cloud-free satellite view around Selous G.R (TZA) — tile 1/4, with the finding area outlined
8.08°S 36.75°ENASA Blue Marble via GIBS · outline = finding area
Published

13 hot fire detections inside Selous Game Reserve tile, confirmed by a later satellite pass

Selous G.R (TZA) — tile 1/4 · seen · published

Over a 2-day window ending 28 September 2026, the NOAA-20 VIIRS sensor logged 13 detections with fire radiative power of at least 20 MW inside the watched boundary of the Selous Game Reserve (tile 1/4) in Tanzania. The hottest reading was 88.5 MW. A later pass on 29 September picked up 4 more hot detections in the same box, which is what moved this from a single snapshot to a confirmed finding. Fire density ran at 6.229 hot detections per square degree against 5.053 in the surrounding 30 km ring — a ratio of 1.233, busier than its neighbourhood but not dramatically so. This is not evidence of clearing or of any illegal act. Satellites see heat, not purpose: managed burning, agricultural fire and legal prescribed burns look identical to wildfire from orbit. The season is also running under El Niño conditions (ONI 1.8), which shifts regional fire weather. What would change the picture: burn-scar mapping showing small, patchy fires, records of scheduled prescribed burning, or a run of clean passes with no further detections.

Written by AI, then checked by a separate reviewer before publication. Every claim points at the evidence below.

What we saw

  • NASA fire detections — 13 detections with FRP ≥ 20 MW in 2 d (max 88.5 MW). (Sep 28, 2026) See the source ↗
  • NASA fire detections — 4 hot detections again on a later pass (2026-09-29). (Sep 29, 2026)

What it might not be

  • Cannot distinguish wildfire from managed, agricultural or legally prescribed burning.
  • VIIRS misses fires under cloud or smoke, and short-lived fires between overpasses.
  • The watched area is a bounding box, not the reserve's legal boundary, so some detections may fall outside the protected area.
  • Density is only 1.233× the surrounding 30 km ring — modestly above the local norm.
  • El Niño conditions (ONI 1.8) affect regional fire weather and complicate comparison with past seasons.
  • Says nothing about cause or responsibility; attribution would need land-tenure and concession data.
  • A NOAA-20 source outage would look like calm rather than an absence of fire.
  • Cannot tell wildfire from managed burning, agricultural fire or a legal prescribed burn.
  • VIIRS misses fires under cloud/smoke and small or short-lived fires between overpasses (~2/day).
  • The watched boundary is the watchlist's bbox, not the legal polygon, until protected_areas (M3) lands.
  • S-NPP products end 1 Nov 2026 — the default source is NOAA-20; a source outage looks like calm.
  • Says nothing about cause or responsibility; attribution needs land-tenure and concession layers.

What would change our mind

Newer satellite images that show no change, a correction from the data source, or a reply with evidence from the ground. If that happens, the case is marked “Turned out wrong” — in public — and it stays on this site.

Why this was published

Two separate sources agreed — NASA fire detections, then NASA fire detections — and a reviewer checked the evidence before it went up.

Replies

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Ledger id 01a0e96e-fd2c-7de6-b27d-7261a3203793

Technical details rule, evidence ids, history, proof
Rule
fires_in_protected v1.0
Tier
T1
Tags
protected-area, discovered, tza, iucn-iv, game-reserve
Confirmed
Yes — independent revisit signal, 2026-09-29
Rule FP rate
0 % · 0 of 12 decided
Location
8.08°S 36.75°E
Observed
2026-09-28
Opened
2026-09-28 by automatic rule fires_in_protected v1.0
  1. candidate
  2. confirmed
  3. published
  4. resolved

Evidence2

alertfirms-viirs_noaa20_nrt

13 detections with FRP ≥ 20 MW in 2 d (max 88.5 MW).

detections 13maxFrp 88.5
· fires_in v1.0 · firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-1399-1-2026-09-28
Source ↗
alertfirms-viirs_noaa20_nrtConfirming signal

4 hot detections again on a later pass (2026-09-29).

detections 4
· fires_in v1.0 · firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-1399-1-2026-09-29-revisit

Context

1.23×
AOI vs its 30 km neighbourhood
AOI
6.229
Ring
5.053
Metric
hot detections per deg²
ENSO El Niño · ONI +1.8

Publication gates

  • Evidence — 1 piece from firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt — met
  • Independent confirmation — a different revisit (firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt), 2026-09-29 — met
  • Human approval — 1 of 1 needed at tier 1 — met
  • Narration — AI-drafted by claude-opus-5 — met
Published
2026-09-30 by AI model
Narrated By
AI model
Reviewed By
AI model
Policy
2026-09-26-autonomous
Note
autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)

History5

  1. status changed → publishedAI model
  2. reviewed → confirmedAI model
  3. narrated → confirmedAI model
  4. confirmed → confirmedautomatic rule fires_in_protected v1.0
  5. created → candidateautomatic rule fires_in_protected v1.0

Verify

Checkpoint
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1 · 971 entries
Signed root
65becba35e7b…cfb1ac
This case
5 signed events
Leaf
#946 of 971 — this case’s latest event
Leaf hash
6108645b49cd…b54c44
Proof
10-hash audit path
  1. 8cdaec8c3b450bb347e5f4aa1149d10526127e5b414aa27160ceccc18eda19d4
  2. d51fc21525e9e36689f72e682f4d2be33cfb8d58e7c1bd93cac53b5743d6a0c6
  3. 7b391a3ea5268e8f4c9a966df9280c8527026e310de1a1877a8dce2933a1246d
  4. 01c284708e9a4ff4f1c7deca4045683435570693d94707fde2fc69e98c93b623
  5. 0045955efc1ce8cbac08a8733861af830ac685c100ede195c387e074963da34e
  6. 881a017e2581f97da1c46804177dfd5f924565433e1166705255b96348abe25d
  7. a72c3339b408a45e95e937a87116707abc006bf01b9d03fe3f1a13fbcc11992a
  8. d4a69eb9bd4aba2b04a0c06f8365d5c370a5591fa80d0e8a9962a94eea222b01
  9. b151de5eaefddf3d1cfc86f94cdbc3995ed5d406a6c0acfc99649a5d48d50794
  10. 5f7580b7f5a7f09ff7675565fb36c19876079a6c101f721419a5a07a7a23b1c1
Last event
8bacf84e49d4…24e929
Note
Checkpoint text
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1
971
Zb7Lo157ettQqPmu0tm88BnWSkMC3ZJMEFFRbmvPsaw=

— earthdeck TkCXvy4ab1W8aoaOb+pzCGCDnG5hglritooG+HSh5E2eK5bX/GOa8ngRawRBFFq9xkoAkQHY2WV8CTtkhuUX2a2EhA8=

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