{"finding":{"findingId":"01a0e96e-fd2c-7de6-b27d-7261a3203793","status":"published","tier":1,"rule":{"name":"fires_in_protected","version":"1.0","params":{"dayRange":2,"minDetections":5,"minFrp":20,"revisitHours":18,"source":"VIIRS_NOAA20_NRT"}},"title":"Fire cluster inside Selous G.R (TZA) — tile 1/4: 13 hot detections","summary":"13 VIIRS detections with fire radiative power ≥ 20 MW within 2 days inside the watched boundary; density 1.233× the 30 km neighbourhood. Awaiting an independent signal (EONET event or a later pass).","geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[36.33,-8.36]},"bbox":[36.09,-8.865,37.415,-7.29],"aoi":{"id":"wdpa-1399-1","name":"Selous G.R (TZA) — tile 1/4","tags":["protected-area","discovered","tza","iucn-iv","game-reserve"]},"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[],"baseline":{"metric":"hot detections per deg²","ringKm":30,"aoiValue":6.229,"regionalValue":5.053,"ratio":1.233}},"blindSpots":["Cannot tell wildfire from managed burning, agricultural fire or a legal prescribed burn.","VIIRS misses fires under cloud/smoke and small or short-lived fires between overpasses (~2/day).","The watched boundary is the watchlist's bbox, not the legal polygon, until protected_areas (M3) lands.","S-NPP products end 1 Nov 2026 — the default source is NOAA-20; a source outage looks like calm.","Says nothing about cause or responsibility; attribution needs land-tenure and concession layers."],"observedAt":"2026-09-28T00:00:00Z","createdAt":"2026-09-28T19:10:10.696Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-30T01:21:27.180Z","createdBy":"system:fires_in_protected@1.0","confirmed":{"at":"2026-09-29T19:10:12.634Z","independence":"revisit","signal":{"id":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-1399-1-2026-09-29-revisit","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-29T00:00:00Z","method":{"name":"fires_in","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[36.09,-8.865,37.415,-7.29],"dayRange":1,"minFrp":20,"source":"VIIRS_NOAA20_NRT"}},"summary":"4 hot detections again on a later pass (2026-09-29).","values":{"detections":4}}},"evidence":[{"id":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-1399-1-2026-09-28","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-28T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"fires_in","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[36.09,-8.865,37.415,-7.29],"dayRange":2,"minFrp":20,"source":"VIIRS_NOAA20_NRT"}},"summary":"13 detections with FRP ≥ 20 MW in 2 d (max 88.5 MW).","values":{"detections":13,"maxFrp":88.5}}],"attribution":null,"narration":{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0efe6-e95b-7d02-8816-f03f8922684f","findingId":"01a0e96e-fd2c-7de6-b27d-7261a3203793","at":"2026-09-30T01:21:22.779Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"d0e490e4f036f4d790d871cb8a805a97eb8e9a7f041c187d910a261330dee971","kind":"narrated","text":"13 hot fire detections inside Selous Game Reserve tile, confirmed by a later satellite pass\n\nOver a 2-day window ending 28 September 2026, the NOAA-20 VIIRS sensor logged 13 detections with fire radiative power of at least 20 MW inside the watched boundary of the Selous Game Reserve (tile 1/4) in Tanzania. The hottest reading was 88.5 MW. A later pass on 29 September picked up 4 more hot detections in the same box, which is what moved this from a single snapshot to a confirmed finding. Fire density ran at 6.229 hot detections per square degree against 5.053 in the surrounding 30 km ring — a ratio of 1.233, busier than its neighbourhood but not dramatically so. This is not evidence of clearing or of any illegal act. Satellites see heat, not purpose: managed burning, agricultural fire and legal prescribed burns look identical to wildfire from orbit. The season is also running under El Niño conditions (ONI 1.8), which shifts regional fire weather. What would change the picture: burn-scar mapping showing small, patchy fires, records of scheduled prescribed burning, or a run of clean passes with no further detections.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Hot detections (2 days): 13 [firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-1399-1-2026-09-28]\n- Peak fire radiative power (MW): 88.5 [firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-1399-1-2026-09-28]\n- Detections on confirming pass: 4 [firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-1399-1-2026-09-29-revisit]\n\nConfidence: medium\nCaveats:\n- Cannot distinguish wildfire from managed, agricultural or legally prescribed burning.\n- VIIRS misses fires under cloud or smoke, and short-lived fires between overpasses.\n- The watched area is a bounding box, not the reserve's legal boundary, so some detections may fall outside the protected area.\n- Density is only 1.233× the surrounding 30 km ring — modestly above the local norm.\n- El Niño conditions (ONI 1.8) affect regional fire weather and complicate comparison with past seasons.\n- Says nothing about cause or responsibility; attribution would need land-tenure and concession data.\n- A NOAA-20 source outage would look like calm rather than an absence of fire.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"1817b7b431358b67a10d91bcac02057c1eb5fdfa87593bbf47e5da7453b1986f","transcriptSha256":"8f83b06bd9818462be3276196a766af8519f8a243baf22b397e6c5ee68fd7dec","evidenceRefs":["firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-1399-1-2026-09-28","firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-1399-1-2026-09-29-revisit"]},"reviews":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0efe6-fa81-7fc9-9410-231e90bcbf92","findingId":"01a0e96e-fd2c-7de6-b27d-7261a3203793","at":"2026-09-30T01:21:27.169Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"5144cb6854b2c402e67b79edcbd16ca24d2542f33406860dbaff01e2413b8981","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":1,"note":"All numeric claims (13 detections, 88.5 MW max, 4 confirming detections, density ratio 1.233, ONI 1.8) match the evidence and context fields exactly; Narration explicitly acknowledges blind spots: cannot distinguish wildfire from managed/agricultural/prescribed burns, VIIRS detection gaps, bbox vs legal boundary mismatch, source outage risk, and lack of attribution — closely mirroring the finding's blindSpots list; No individuals or identifiable persons are named anywhere in the text; AOI tags include 'protected-area' and control is false, not a control site, consistent with a legitimate non-control finding","verdict":"publish"}],"notifications":[],"replies":[],"retracted":null,"history":[{"at":"2026-09-28T19:10:10.696Z","kind":"created","status":"candidate","actor":"system:fires_in_protected@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-29T19:10:12.634Z","kind":"confirmed","status":"confirmed","actor":"system:fires_in_protected@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-30T01:21:22.779Z","kind":"narrated","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-opus-5"},{"at":"2026-09-30T01:21:27.169Z","kind":"reviewed","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"},{"at":"2026-09-30T01:21:27.180Z","kind":"status_changed","status":"published","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"}],"eventCount":5,"lastEventHash":"8bacf84e49d4ac2855d43b4a397c467c64d488b63685b6b6100644c74324e929"},"events":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e96e-fd2d-7a98-a7e8-1cf2f2713fc2","findingId":"01a0e96e-fd2c-7de6-b27d-7261a3203793","at":"2026-09-28T19:10:10.696Z","actor":"system:fires_in_protected@1.0","prev":null,"kind":"created","rule":{"name":"fires_in_protected","version":"1.0","params":{"dayRange":2,"minDetections":5,"minFrp":20,"revisitHours":18,"source":"VIIRS_NOAA20_NRT"}},"title":"Fire cluster inside Selous G.R (TZA) — tile 1/4: 13 hot detections","summary":"13 VIIRS detections with fire radiative power ≥ 20 MW within 2 days inside the watched boundary; density 1.233× the 30 km neighbourhood. Awaiting an independent signal (EONET event or a later pass).","tier":1,"geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[36.33,-8.36]},"bbox":[36.09,-8.865,37.415,-7.29],"aoi":{"id":"wdpa-1399-1","name":"Selous G.R (TZA) — tile 1/4","tags":["protected-area","discovered","tza","iucn-iv","game-reserve"]},"observedAt":"2026-09-28T00:00:00Z","evidence":[{"id":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-1399-1-2026-09-28","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-28T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"fires_in","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[36.09,-8.865,37.415,-7.29],"dayRange":2,"minFrp":20,"source":"VIIRS_NOAA20_NRT"}},"summary":"13 detections with FRP ≥ 20 MW in 2 d (max 88.5 MW).","values":{"detections":13,"maxFrp":88.5}}],"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[],"baseline":{"metric":"hot detections per deg²","ringKm":30,"aoiValue":6.229,"regionalValue":5.053,"ratio":1.233}},"blindSpots":["Cannot tell wildfire from managed burning, agricultural fire or a legal prescribed burn.","VIIRS misses fires under cloud/smoke and small or short-lived fires between overpasses (~2/day).","The watched boundary is the watchlist's bbox, not the legal polygon, until protected_areas (M3) lands.","S-NPP products end 1 Nov 2026 — the default source is NOAA-20; a source outage looks like calm.","Says nothing about cause or responsibility; attribution needs land-tenure and concession layers."]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0ee95-2048-7800-9ee6-97129fd6de20","findingId":"01a0e96e-fd2c-7de6-b27d-7261a3203793","at":"2026-09-29T19:10:12.634Z","actor":"system:fires_in_protected@1.0","prev":"e44a8cabfc6dd9f749fbfb69faa004464a73769c3d1d764c8e755acb38096e96","kind":"confirmed","signal":{"id":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-1399-1-2026-09-29-revisit","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-29T00:00:00Z","method":{"name":"fires_in","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[36.09,-8.865,37.415,-7.29],"dayRange":1,"minFrp":20,"source":"VIIRS_NOAA20_NRT"}},"summary":"4 hot detections again on a later pass (2026-09-29).","values":{"detections":4}},"independence":"revisit"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0efe6-e95b-7d02-8816-f03f8922684f","findingId":"01a0e96e-fd2c-7de6-b27d-7261a3203793","at":"2026-09-30T01:21:22.779Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"d0e490e4f036f4d790d871cb8a805a97eb8e9a7f041c187d910a261330dee971","kind":"narrated","text":"13 hot fire detections inside Selous Game Reserve tile, confirmed by a later satellite pass\n\nOver a 2-day window ending 28 September 2026, the NOAA-20 VIIRS sensor logged 13 detections with fire radiative power of at least 20 MW inside the watched boundary of the Selous Game Reserve (tile 1/4) in Tanzania. The hottest reading was 88.5 MW. A later pass on 29 September picked up 4 more hot detections in the same box, which is what moved this from a single snapshot to a confirmed finding. Fire density ran at 6.229 hot detections per square degree against 5.053 in the surrounding 30 km ring — a ratio of 1.233, busier than its neighbourhood but not dramatically so. This is not evidence of clearing or of any illegal act. Satellites see heat, not purpose: managed burning, agricultural fire and legal prescribed burns look identical to wildfire from orbit. The season is also running under El Niño conditions (ONI 1.8), which shifts regional fire weather. What would change the picture: burn-scar mapping showing small, patchy fires, records of scheduled prescribed burning, or a run of clean passes with no further detections.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Hot detections (2 days): 13 [firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-1399-1-2026-09-28]\n- Peak fire radiative power (MW): 88.5 [firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-1399-1-2026-09-28]\n- Detections on confirming pass: 4 [firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-1399-1-2026-09-29-revisit]\n\nConfidence: medium\nCaveats:\n- Cannot distinguish wildfire from managed, agricultural or legally prescribed burning.\n- VIIRS misses fires under cloud or smoke, and short-lived fires between overpasses.\n- The watched area is a bounding box, not the reserve's legal boundary, so some detections may fall outside the protected area.\n- Density is only 1.233× the surrounding 30 km ring — modestly above the local norm.\n- El Niño conditions (ONI 1.8) affect regional fire weather and complicate comparison with past seasons.\n- Says nothing about cause or responsibility; attribution would need land-tenure and concession data.\n- A NOAA-20 source outage would look like calm rather than an absence of fire.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"1817b7b431358b67a10d91bcac02057c1eb5fdfa87593bbf47e5da7453b1986f","transcriptSha256":"8f83b06bd9818462be3276196a766af8519f8a243baf22b397e6c5ee68fd7dec","evidenceRefs":["firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-1399-1-2026-09-28","firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-1399-1-2026-09-29-revisit"]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0efe6-fa81-7fc9-9410-231e90bcbf92","findingId":"01a0e96e-fd2c-7de6-b27d-7261a3203793","at":"2026-09-30T01:21:27.169Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"5144cb6854b2c402e67b79edcbd16ca24d2542f33406860dbaff01e2413b8981","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":1,"note":"All numeric claims (13 detections, 88.5 MW max, 4 confirming detections, density ratio 1.233, ONI 1.8) match the evidence and context fields exactly; Narration explicitly acknowledges blind spots: cannot distinguish wildfire from managed/agricultural/prescribed burns, VIIRS detection gaps, bbox vs legal boundary mismatch, source outage risk, and lack of attribution — closely mirroring the finding's blindSpots list; No individuals or identifiable persons are named anywhere in the text; AOI tags include 'protected-area' and control is false, not a control site, consistent with a legitimate non-control finding","verdict":"publish"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0efe6-fa8c-7bdd-ab85-b055ab972ddc","findingId":"01a0e96e-fd2c-7de6-b27d-7261a3203793","at":"2026-09-30T01:21:27.180Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"ebe8e913c9759ea3bd36dc10bd9db1c442bc824637a8c2845a7904812a677534","kind":"status_changed","from":"confirmed","to":"published","reason":"autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)","gates":{"narratedBy":"model:claude-opus-5","reviewedBy":["model:claude-sonnet-5"],"policy":"2026-09-26-autonomous"}}],"inclusion":{"index":946,"leafHash":"6108645b49cd47503be36d90a8e2a85c0266c1daa531c29ca1486989c2b54c44","proof":["8cdaec8c3b450bb347e5f4aa1149d10526127e5b414aa27160ceccc18eda19d4","d51fc21525e9e36689f72e682f4d2be33cfb8d58e7c1bd93cac53b5743d6a0c6","7b391a3ea5268e8f4c9a966df9280c8527026e310de1a1877a8dce2933a1246d","01c284708e9a4ff4f1c7deca4045683435570693d94707fde2fc69e98c93b623","0045955efc1ce8cbac08a8733861af830ac685c100ede195c387e074963da34e","881a017e2581f97da1c46804177dfd5f924565433e1166705255b96348abe25d","a72c3339b408a45e95e937a87116707abc006bf01b9d03fe3f1a13fbcc11992a","d4a69eb9bd4aba2b04a0c06f8365d5c370a5591fa80d0e8a9962a94eea222b01","b151de5eaefddf3d1cfc86f94cdbc3995ed5d406a6c0acfc99649a5d48d50794","5f7580b7f5a7f09ff7675565fb36c19876079a6c101f721419a5a07a7a23b1c1"],"size":971,"root":"65becba35e7b7adb50a8f9aed2d9bcf019d64a4302dd924c1051516e6bcfb1ac"}}