TerraKeepKeeping Earth within its limits
Cloud-free satellite view around Parque Nacional Do Araguaia (BRA), with the finding area outlined
10.50°S 50.21°WNASA Blue Marble via GIBS · outline = finding area
Published

Fire cluster burns inside Araguaia National Park, Brazil — 16 hot detections, then 55 on the next pass

Parque Nacional Do Araguaia (BRA) · seen · published

Satellite fire sensors (VIIRS on NOAA-20) logged 16 detections with fire radiative power of at least 20 MW over two days inside the watched boundary of Parque Nacional Do Araguaia, the strongest reaching 89.4 MW. A later pass on 28 September found 55 hot detections again, with a peak of 371.8 MW — the independent revisit that confirms this is not a one-off sensor artefact. Detection density inside the area ran about 2.787 times that of the surrounding 30 km ring. Conditions are El Niño (ONI 1.8), which tends to dry fuels across this part of Brazil.

What this is not: heat alone does not say who lit it or why. The rule cannot separate a wildfire from managed pasture burning, agricultural fire or a legal prescribed burn, and it says nothing about forest clearing. No nearby natural-hazard event is on record. The watched area is a bounding box, not the park's legal polygon, so some detections may fall outside the protected boundary.

What would change our mind: burn-scar mapping showing the fire footprint outside the legal polygon, a documented prescribed-burn authorisation, or later passes showing no scar where the heat was recorded.

Written by AI, then checked by a separate reviewer before publication. Every claim points at the evidence below.

What we saw

  • NASA fire detections — 16 detections with FRP ≥ 20 MW in 2 d (max 89.4 MW). (Sep 27, 2026) See the source ↗
  • NASA fire detections — 55 detections with FRP ≥ 20 MW in 2 d (max 371.8 MW). (Sep 28, 2026) See the source ↗
  • NASA fire detections — 55 hot detections again on a later pass (2026-09-28). (Sep 28, 2026)

What it might not be

  • Cannot distinguish wildfire from managed, agricultural or legally prescribed burning.
  • VIIRS misses fires under cloud or smoke, and short-lived fires between roughly two passes a day.
  • The watched area is the watchlist bounding box, not the park's legal boundary.
  • Confirmation is a later pass of the same sensor, not a fully separate instrument.
  • A source outage (NOAA-20 feed) would look like calm rather than an alert.
  • No statement about cause or responsibility; that needs land-tenure and concession data.
  • Cannot tell wildfire from managed burning, agricultural fire or a legal prescribed burn.
  • VIIRS misses fires under cloud/smoke and small or short-lived fires between overpasses (~2/day).
  • The watched boundary is the watchlist's bbox, not the legal polygon, until protected_areas (M3) lands.
  • S-NPP products end 1 Nov 2026 — the default source is NOAA-20; a source outage looks like calm.
  • Says nothing about cause or responsibility; attribution needs land-tenure and concession layers.

What would change our mind

Newer satellite images that show no change, a correction from the data source, or a reply with evidence from the ground. If that happens, the case is marked “Turned out wrong” — in public — and it stays on this site.

Why this was published

Two separate sources agreed — NASA fire detections, then NASA fire detections — and a reviewer checked the evidence before it went up.

Replies

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Ledger id 01a0e6c9-e566-7104-b6dd-f8d2317f06af

Technical details rule, evidence ids, history, proof
Rule
fires_in_protected v1.0
Tier
T1
Tags
protected-area, discovered, bra, iucn-ii, park
Confirmed
Yes — independent revisit signal, 2026-09-28
Rule FP rate
0 % · 0 of 7 decided
Location
10.50°S 50.21°W
Observed
2026-09-27
Opened
2026-09-28 by automatic rule fires_in_protected v1.0
  1. candidate
  2. confirmed
  3. published
  4. resolved

Evidence3

alertfirms-viirs_noaa20_nrt

16 detections with FRP ≥ 20 MW in 2 d (max 89.4 MW).

detections 16maxFrp 89.4
· fires_in v1.0 · firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-58-2026-09-27
Source ↗
alertfirms-viirs_noaa20_nrt

55 detections with FRP ≥ 20 MW in 2 d (max 371.8 MW).

detections 55maxFrp 371.8
· fires_in v1.0 · firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-58-2026-09-28
Source ↗
alertfirms-viirs_noaa20_nrtConfirming signal

55 hot detections again on a later pass (2026-09-28).

detections 55
· fires_in v1.0 · firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-58-2026-09-28-revisit

Context

2.79×
AOI vs its 30 km neighbourhood
AOI
21.482
Ring
7.708
Metric
hot detections per deg²
ENSO El Niño · ONI +1.8

Publication gates

  • Evidence — 2 pieces from firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt — met
  • Independent confirmation — a different revisit (firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt), 2026-09-28 — met
  • Human approval — 1 of 1 needed at tier 1 — met
  • Narration — AI-drafted by claude-opus-5 — met
Published
2026-09-29 by AI model
Narrated By
AI model
Reviewed By
AI model
Policy
2026-09-26-autonomous
Note
autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)

History6

  1. status changed → publishedAI model
  2. reviewed → confirmedAI model
  3. narrated → confirmedAI model
  4. evidence added → confirmedautomatic rule fires_in_protected v1.0
  5. confirmed → confirmedautomatic rule fires_in_protected v1.0
  6. created → candidateautomatic rule fires_in_protected v1.0

Verify

Checkpoint
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1 · 854 entries
Signed root
842817ab26f9…f7aace
This case
6 signed events
Leaf
#829 of 854 — this case’s latest event
Leaf hash
83563be574c7…f9a8b0
Proof
9-hash audit path
  1. 5ba336a24ca079316dd6398f0ca845563e4477f5eee623c5811f70008132bd58
  2. fd3a5a75f7fc3e9d7ba1d1712f535554185b02a795e38a7acd64a1e14c27fe60
  3. 708249998f283726970759fb72b55051573136bcbda455e1f325fd62d740de3c
  4. c7f14830bcb23789ff0f0654c421515618846687588eee2fb9796d51da770ba3
  5. 7504728da8df235cf0281faf6fa902013721625e532765883342784288764972
  6. c2c417bd9abf6f73d0c436d8fb60be674663ec470648e6f608a4a8a7e315cd55
  7. e74427ab5fe738155236b8489f14fc43910882da5632a9df58f811f4ed21ac85
  8. b151de5eaefddf3d1cfc86f94cdbc3995ed5d406a6c0acfc99649a5d48d50794
  9. 5f7580b7f5a7f09ff7675565fb36c19876079a6c101f721419a5a07a7a23b1c1
Last event
21bcafb2a623…7cd60c
Note
Checkpoint text
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1
854
hCgXqyb5olIe961gFNy5VKlZ6TWfV4qJ9cOpLH33qs4=

— earthdeck TkCXv4aDxvyvQYJRvBgPtDUJOpfIw1HGQb9y5odOvbIhnVuG/sWj9/xVVekah5GQglG6yeUuq+KqfNruZfqFA2D32Qg=

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