{"finding":{"findingId":"01a0e6c9-e566-7104-b6dd-f8d2317f06af","status":"published","tier":1,"rule":{"name":"fires_in_protected","version":"1.0","params":{"dayRange":2,"minDetections":5,"minFrp":20,"revisitHours":18,"source":"VIIRS_NOAA20_NRT"}},"title":"Fire cluster inside Parque Nacional Do Araguaia (BRA): 16 hot detections","summary":"16 VIIRS detections with fire radiative power ≥ 20 MW within 2 days inside the watched boundary; density 2.787× the 30 km neighbourhood. Awaiting an independent signal (EONET event or a later pass).","geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[-50.09,-10.09]},"bbox":[-50.49,-11.17,-49.93,-9.84],"aoi":{"id":"wdpa-58","name":"Parque Nacional Do Araguaia (BRA)","tags":["protected-area","discovered","bra","iucn-ii","park"]},"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[],"baseline":{"metric":"hot detections per deg²","ringKm":30,"aoiValue":21.482,"regionalValue":7.708,"ratio":2.787}},"blindSpots":["Cannot tell wildfire from managed burning, agricultural fire or a legal prescribed burn.","VIIRS misses fires under cloud/smoke and small or short-lived fires between overpasses (~2/day).","The watched boundary is the watchlist's bbox, not the legal polygon, until protected_areas (M3) lands.","S-NPP products end 1 Nov 2026 — the default source is NOAA-20; a source outage looks like calm.","Says nothing about cause or responsibility; attribution needs land-tenure and concession layers."],"observedAt":"2026-09-27T00:00:00Z","createdAt":"2026-09-28T06:50:30.965Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-29T01:20:44.348Z","createdBy":"system:fires_in_protected@1.0","confirmed":{"at":"2026-09-28T18:50:32.525Z","independence":"revisit","signal":{"id":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-58-2026-09-28-revisit","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-28T00:00:00Z","method":{"name":"fires_in","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[-50.49,-11.17,-49.93,-9.84],"dayRange":1,"minFrp":20,"source":"VIIRS_NOAA20_NRT"}},"summary":"55 hot detections again on a later pass (2026-09-28).","values":{"detections":55}}},"evidence":[{"id":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-58-2026-09-27","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-27T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"fires_in","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[-50.49,-11.17,-49.93,-9.84],"dayRange":2,"minFrp":20,"source":"VIIRS_NOAA20_NRT"}},"summary":"16 detections with FRP ≥ 20 MW in 2 d (max 89.4 MW).","values":{"detections":16,"maxFrp":89.4}},{"id":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-58-2026-09-28","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-28T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"fires_in","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[-50.49,-11.17,-49.93,-9.84],"dayRange":2,"minFrp":20,"source":"VIIRS_NOAA20_NRT"}},"summary":"55 detections with FRP ≥ 20 MW in 2 d (max 371.8 MW).","values":{"detections":55,"maxFrp":371.8}}],"attribution":null,"narration":{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0eabf-d581-770b-8265-3e4d63051939","findingId":"01a0e6c9-e566-7104-b6dd-f8d2317f06af","at":"2026-09-29T01:20:35.713Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"b1d03acd1e937c9c691da13caa11bdb1df8cdfceccc2fa2debf960db3f0b1d24","kind":"narrated","text":"Fire cluster burns inside Araguaia National Park, Brazil — 16 hot detections, then 55 on the next pass\n\nSatellite fire sensors (VIIRS on NOAA-20) logged 16 detections with fire radiative power of at least 20 MW over two days inside the watched boundary of Parque Nacional Do Araguaia, the strongest reaching 89.4 MW. A later pass on 28 September found 55 hot detections again, with a peak of 371.8 MW — the independent revisit that confirms this is not a one-off sensor artefact. Detection density inside the area ran about 2.787 times that of the surrounding 30 km ring. Conditions are El Niño (ONI 1.8), which tends to dry fuels across this part of Brazil.\n\nWhat this is not: heat alone does not say who lit it or why. The rule cannot separate a wildfire from managed pasture burning, agricultural fire or a legal prescribed burn, and it says nothing about forest clearing. No nearby natural-hazard event is on record. The watched area is a bounding box, not the park's legal polygon, so some detections may fall outside the protected boundary.\n\nWhat would change our mind: burn-scar mapping showing the fire footprint outside the legal polygon, a documented prescribed-burn authorisation, or later passes showing no scar where the heat was recorded.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Hot detections (27 Sep, 2-day window): 16 [firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-58-2026-09-27]\n- Peak fire radiative power, 27 Sep (MW): 89.4 [firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-58-2026-09-27]\n- Hot detections on confirming revisit (28 Sep): 55 [firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-58-2026-09-28-revisit]\n- Peak fire radiative power, 28 Sep (MW): 371.8 [firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-58-2026-09-28]\n\nConfidence: medium\nCaveats:\n- Cannot distinguish wildfire from managed, agricultural or legally prescribed burning.\n- VIIRS misses fires under cloud or smoke, and short-lived fires between roughly two passes a day.\n- The watched area is the watchlist bounding box, not the park's legal boundary.\n- Confirmation is a later pass of the same sensor, not a fully separate instrument.\n- A source outage (NOAA-20 feed) would look like calm rather than an alert.\n- No statement about cause or responsibility; that needs land-tenure and concession data.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"781c0cc2695bfc7b5c9a1c2845b695af9f497defaddfcb0c5aa820d94b5701c6","transcriptSha256":"47f22f2bc4a74e91bf9e8a22c9b57ac2917c324984a5da69333f3a783a43e828","evidenceRefs":["firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-58-2026-09-27","firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-58-2026-09-28-revisit","firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-58-2026-09-28"]},"reviews":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0eabf-f725-7f14-b436-a7681750aede","findingId":"01a0e6c9-e566-7104-b6dd-f8d2317f06af","at":"2026-09-29T01:20:44.325Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"b43eca21c15edb79e3b79d92efbc93ea6f351450337ce4c51936ef37471bda9b","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":1,"note":"All numeric claims (16/55 detections, 89.4/371.8 MW, 2.787 density ratio) match the evidence exactly.; Blind spots are faithfully reflected: cannot distinguish wildfire from managed/agricultural/prescribed burning, VIIRS coverage gaps, bbox vs legal polygon caveat, same-sensor revisit limitation, and source-outage risk.; No natural person is named or identifiable.; AOI is not tagged 'control' (control:false, tags show protected-area/park), so this is a legitimate non-control finding fit for publication.","verdict":"publish"}],"notifications":[],"replies":[],"retracted":null,"history":[{"at":"2026-09-28T06:50:30.965Z","kind":"created","status":"candidate","actor":"system:fires_in_protected@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-28T18:50:32.525Z","kind":"confirmed","status":"confirmed","actor":"system:fires_in_protected@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-29T00:50:30.333Z","kind":"evidence_added","status":"confirmed","actor":"system:fires_in_protected@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-29T01:20:35.713Z","kind":"narrated","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-opus-5"},{"at":"2026-09-29T01:20:44.325Z","kind":"reviewed","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"},{"at":"2026-09-29T01:20:44.348Z","kind":"status_changed","status":"published","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"}],"eventCount":6,"lastEventHash":"21bcafb2a623734bc7f7b1e089112a964fab59fe962e5cdc4b181af75e7cd60c"},"events":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e6c9-e566-77d1-a9d8-3793fcabb4e4","findingId":"01a0e6c9-e566-7104-b6dd-f8d2317f06af","at":"2026-09-28T06:50:30.965Z","actor":"system:fires_in_protected@1.0","prev":null,"kind":"created","rule":{"name":"fires_in_protected","version":"1.0","params":{"dayRange":2,"minDetections":5,"minFrp":20,"revisitHours":18,"source":"VIIRS_NOAA20_NRT"}},"title":"Fire cluster inside Parque Nacional Do Araguaia (BRA): 16 hot detections","summary":"16 VIIRS detections with fire radiative power ≥ 20 MW within 2 days inside the watched boundary; density 2.787× the 30 km neighbourhood. Awaiting an independent signal (EONET event or a later pass).","tier":1,"geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[-50.09,-10.09]},"bbox":[-50.49,-11.17,-49.93,-9.84],"aoi":{"id":"wdpa-58","name":"Parque Nacional Do Araguaia (BRA)","tags":["protected-area","discovered","bra","iucn-ii","park"]},"observedAt":"2026-09-27T00:00:00Z","evidence":[{"id":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-58-2026-09-27","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-27T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"fires_in","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[-50.49,-11.17,-49.93,-9.84],"dayRange":2,"minFrp":20,"source":"VIIRS_NOAA20_NRT"}},"summary":"16 detections with FRP ≥ 20 MW in 2 d (max 89.4 MW).","values":{"detections":16,"maxFrp":89.4}}],"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[],"baseline":{"metric":"hot detections per deg²","ringKm":30,"aoiValue":21.482,"regionalValue":7.708,"ratio":2.787}},"blindSpots":["Cannot tell wildfire from managed burning, agricultural fire or a legal prescribed burn.","VIIRS misses fires under cloud/smoke and small or short-lived fires between overpasses (~2/day).","The watched boundary is the watchlist's bbox, not the legal polygon, until protected_areas (M3) lands.","S-NPP products end 1 Nov 2026 — the default source is NOAA-20; a source outage looks like calm.","Says nothing about cause or responsibility; attribution needs land-tenure and concession layers."]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e95c-d0ed-7776-9c5d-a66aae3b7ed4","findingId":"01a0e6c9-e566-7104-b6dd-f8d2317f06af","at":"2026-09-28T18:50:32.525Z","actor":"system:fires_in_protected@1.0","prev":"bf48e85a3ff78c519b92309bdfb746d4dfb4560cd5fadc35a3bea078d279e2ff","kind":"confirmed","signal":{"id":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-58-2026-09-28-revisit","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-28T00:00:00Z","method":{"name":"fires_in","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[-50.49,-11.17,-49.93,-9.84],"dayRange":1,"minFrp":20,"source":"VIIRS_NOAA20_NRT"}},"summary":"55 hot detections again on a later pass (2026-09-28).","values":{"detections":55}},"independence":"revisit"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0eaa8-5813-7938-820d-9e82963a5ae8","findingId":"01a0e6c9-e566-7104-b6dd-f8d2317f06af","at":"2026-09-29T00:50:30.333Z","actor":"system:fires_in_protected@1.0","prev":"5262ba6bac94739df9cbaccbe1c0646d4d773e3357f7970f1e7aed1e35ee0398","kind":"evidence_added","evidence":[{"id":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-58-2026-09-28","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-28T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"fires_in","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[-50.49,-11.17,-49.93,-9.84],"dayRange":2,"minFrp":20,"source":"VIIRS_NOAA20_NRT"}},"summary":"55 detections with FRP ≥ 20 MW in 2 d (max 371.8 MW).","values":{"detections":55,"maxFrp":371.8}}]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0eabf-d581-770b-8265-3e4d63051939","findingId":"01a0e6c9-e566-7104-b6dd-f8d2317f06af","at":"2026-09-29T01:20:35.713Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"b1d03acd1e937c9c691da13caa11bdb1df8cdfceccc2fa2debf960db3f0b1d24","kind":"narrated","text":"Fire cluster burns inside Araguaia National Park, Brazil — 16 hot detections, then 55 on the next pass\n\nSatellite fire sensors (VIIRS on NOAA-20) logged 16 detections with fire radiative power of at least 20 MW over two days inside the watched boundary of Parque Nacional Do Araguaia, the strongest reaching 89.4 MW. A later pass on 28 September found 55 hot detections again, with a peak of 371.8 MW — the independent revisit that confirms this is not a one-off sensor artefact. Detection density inside the area ran about 2.787 times that of the surrounding 30 km ring. Conditions are El Niño (ONI 1.8), which tends to dry fuels across this part of Brazil.\n\nWhat this is not: heat alone does not say who lit it or why. The rule cannot separate a wildfire from managed pasture burning, agricultural fire or a legal prescribed burn, and it says nothing about forest clearing. No nearby natural-hazard event is on record. The watched area is a bounding box, not the park's legal polygon, so some detections may fall outside the protected boundary.\n\nWhat would change our mind: burn-scar mapping showing the fire footprint outside the legal polygon, a documented prescribed-burn authorisation, or later passes showing no scar where the heat was recorded.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Hot detections (27 Sep, 2-day window): 16 [firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-58-2026-09-27]\n- Peak fire radiative power, 27 Sep (MW): 89.4 [firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-58-2026-09-27]\n- Hot detections on confirming revisit (28 Sep): 55 [firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-58-2026-09-28-revisit]\n- Peak fire radiative power, 28 Sep (MW): 371.8 [firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-58-2026-09-28]\n\nConfidence: medium\nCaveats:\n- Cannot distinguish wildfire from managed, agricultural or legally prescribed burning.\n- VIIRS misses fires under cloud or smoke, and short-lived fires between roughly two passes a day.\n- The watched area is the watchlist bounding box, not the park's legal boundary.\n- Confirmation is a later pass of the same sensor, not a fully separate instrument.\n- A source outage (NOAA-20 feed) would look like calm rather than an alert.\n- No statement about cause or responsibility; that needs land-tenure and concession data.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"781c0cc2695bfc7b5c9a1c2845b695af9f497defaddfcb0c5aa820d94b5701c6","transcriptSha256":"47f22f2bc4a74e91bf9e8a22c9b57ac2917c324984a5da69333f3a783a43e828","evidenceRefs":["firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-58-2026-09-27","firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-58-2026-09-28-revisit","firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-58-2026-09-28"]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0eabf-f725-7f14-b436-a7681750aede","findingId":"01a0e6c9-e566-7104-b6dd-f8d2317f06af","at":"2026-09-29T01:20:44.325Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"b43eca21c15edb79e3b79d92efbc93ea6f351450337ce4c51936ef37471bda9b","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":1,"note":"All numeric claims (16/55 detections, 89.4/371.8 MW, 2.787 density ratio) match the evidence exactly.; Blind spots are faithfully reflected: cannot distinguish wildfire from managed/agricultural/prescribed burning, VIIRS coverage gaps, bbox vs legal polygon caveat, same-sensor revisit limitation, and source-outage risk.; No natural person is named or identifiable.; AOI is not tagged 'control' (control:false, tags show protected-area/park), so this is a legitimate non-control finding fit for publication.","verdict":"publish"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0eabf-f73c-7e00-b928-60a1b7a45b06","findingId":"01a0e6c9-e566-7104-b6dd-f8d2317f06af","at":"2026-09-29T01:20:44.348Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"e061592717ca8ea3afe24e5a818493039625528dfb90774d2e2d3a82fce5cd0c","kind":"status_changed","from":"confirmed","to":"published","reason":"autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)","gates":{"narratedBy":"model:claude-opus-5","reviewedBy":["model:claude-sonnet-5"],"policy":"2026-09-26-autonomous"}}],"inclusion":{"index":829,"leafHash":"83563be574c78c3a57bc1114f5abb07a8c1450229933f356bab36edec7f9a8b0","proof":["5ba336a24ca079316dd6398f0ca845563e4477f5eee623c5811f70008132bd58","fd3a5a75f7fc3e9d7ba1d1712f535554185b02a795e38a7acd64a1e14c27fe60","708249998f283726970759fb72b55051573136bcbda455e1f325fd62d740de3c","c7f14830bcb23789ff0f0654c421515618846687588eee2fb9796d51da770ba3","7504728da8df235cf0281faf6fa902013721625e532765883342784288764972","c2c417bd9abf6f73d0c436d8fb60be674663ec470648e6f608a4a8a7e315cd55","e74427ab5fe738155236b8489f14fc43910882da5632a9df58f811f4ed21ac85","b151de5eaefddf3d1cfc86f94cdbc3995ed5d406a6c0acfc99649a5d48d50794","5f7580b7f5a7f09ff7675565fb36c19876079a6c101f721419a5a07a7a23b1c1"],"size":854,"root":"842817ab26f9a2521ef7ad6014dcb954a959e9359f578a89f5c3a92c7df7aace"}}