TerraKeepKeeping Earth within its limits
Cloud-free satellite view around Flare field near Hoveyzeh, Khuzestan (Iran) — 11 registered sites, with the finding area outlined
31.07°N 47.73°ENASA Blue Marble via GIBS · outline = finding area
Published

Persistent night-time heat near Hoveyzeh, Khuzestan sits outside the flare registry

Flare field near Hoveyzeh, Khuzestan (Iran) — 11 registered sites · seen · published

Night-time infrared passes from NOAA-20 and NOAA-21 picked up a heat source at 31.2365, 47.9649 near Hoveyzeh, Khuzestan (Iran) that was lit on 27 of the last 30 nights, peaking at 27.6 MW. It is one of 5 persistent clusters in this flare field; 4 match sites in the EOG VNF annual summaries, this one does not — no registered flare within 2 km. A later pass on 28 September saw heat again at the same spot, at 7.1 MW. That revisit confirms the heat is real and repeating; it does not confirm what is burning.

What this might not be: the sensor cannot separate a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery unit or kiln. "New" only means absent from the 2023 and 2024 annual flare lists — a flare too small or too often clouded for that product would also look new. Heat is also not volume: FRP is a single-pixel estimate, and unlit venting is invisible entirely.

What would change our mind: an asset registry or high-resolution imagery showing a fixed plant rather than a stack; appearance of the site in a later VNF annual summary; or the heat stopping, which would argue for a temporary burn.

Written by AI, then checked by a separate reviewer before publication. Every claim points at the evidence below.

What we saw

  • NASA fire detections — 5 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-30…2026-09-28); new cluster (no VNF 2023 and 2024 site within 2 km) 27 nights, max 27.6 MW at 31.2365, 47.9649. (Sep 27, 2026) See the source ↗
  • NASA fire detections — Night-time heat with FRP ≥ 5 MW again at the flagged cluster on a later pass (2026-09-28). (Sep 28, 2026) See the source ↗

What it might not be

  • Thermal sensors cannot distinguish a gas flare from a furnace, refinery or kiln.
  • "New" means only that no VNF 2023/2024 site lies within 2 km; small or cloud-obscured flares are missed by that annual product.
  • FRP is not flared volume; VIIRS can saturate and the estimate is single-pixel.
  • Cloud or smoke can hide nights and understate persistence.
  • Only two passes per night (~01:30 local); short or intermittent burning between passes is missed.
  • No operator or ownership attribution — this is a location, not an asset or company.
  • Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.
  • Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.
  • FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.
  • Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.
  • No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.
  • Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.
  • The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week.
  • 'New flaring' only means no site of the VNF 2023/2024 annual summaries within 2 km: a flare too small or too cloudy for EOG's annual product, or a new furnace, also qualifies.

What would change our mind

Newer satellite images that show no change, a correction from the data source, or a reply with evidence from the ground. If that happens, the case is marked “Turned out wrong” — in public — and it stays on this site.

Why this was published

Two separate sources agreed — NASA fire detections, then NASA fire detections — and a reviewer checked the evidence before it went up.

Replies

Know this place? Say what you see. Replies are checked before they appear. No account, no email.

Replies are open on the interactive site (it needs JavaScript).

Ledger id 01a0e6b5-a503-72fb-bc89-d099570dc766

Technical details rule, evidence ids, history, proof
Rule
flaring v1.0
Tier
T2
Tags
flaring, oil-gas, discovered, irq, irn_ups_47.7897e_31.0899n, new-flare
Confirmed
Yes — independent revisit signal, 2026-09-29
Rule FP rate
4.1 % · 2 of 49 decided
Location
31.07°N 47.73°E
Observed
2026-09-27
Opened
2026-09-28 by automatic rule flaring v1.0
  1. candidate
  2. confirmed
  3. published
  4. resolved

Evidence2

alertfirms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt

5 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-30…2026-09-28); new cluster (no VNF 2023 and 2024 site within 2 km) 27 nights, max 27.6 MW at 31.2365, 47.9649.

hotNightDetections 683maxFrp 40.93maxNights 27newClusters 1new_flare 1persistentClusters 5vnfMatched 4vnfTopBcm 0.356vnfTopKm 0.04vnfYear 2024
· flaring v1.0 · firms-flaring-flare-irq-31p1n-47p8e-2026-08-30-2026-09-28
Source ↗
alertfirms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrtConfirming signal

Night-time heat with FRP ≥ 5 MW again at the flagged cluster on a later pass (2026-09-28).

clusters 1maxFrp 7.1
· flaring v1.0 · firms-flaring-flare-irq-31p1n-47p8e-2026-09-28-revisit
Source ↗

Context

ENSO El Niño · ONI +1.8

Publication gates

  • Evidence — 1 piece from firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt — met
  • Independent confirmation — a different revisit (firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt), 2026-09-29 — met
  • Human approval — 1 of 2 needed at tier 2 — not met
  • Narration — AI-drafted by claude-opus-5 — met
Published
2026-09-29 by AI model
Narrated By
AI model
Reviewed By
AI model
Policy
2026-09-26-autonomous
Note
autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)

History5

  1. status changed → publishedAI model
  2. reviewed → confirmedAI model
  3. narrated → confirmedAI model
  4. confirmed → confirmedautomatic rule flaring v1.0
  5. created → candidateautomatic rule flaring v1.0

Verify

Checkpoint
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1 · 854 entries
Signed root
842817ab26f9…f7aace
This case
5 signed events
Leaf
#835 of 854 — this case’s latest event
Leaf hash
ebf25ec53e9a…f93c67
Proof
8-hash audit path
  1. 0e78968213ac726106bc1e8dcc424e8b53b101db32ca013b99bc6bffaa1f5829
  2. a73517162dcfa556ccd5dee38e03ff0607adbdeddcccdff97ca8cf1abe0b3c08
  3. 76de84d29c6b87188e9e8d44f985d81d1dfdfbbf36c350e4dc8948620198a12e
  4. 466491b195d0c6c50c01102db3a93a2db6df90b9fcce522f5bfa485c19d4504d
  5. 39f538d8c117910f61de676ff8fdfa537b14e09c3608c4d11e55d57096999195
  6. 71a85e208c2f8dc340522e3deb6239caf3cc060a8c75b6fd8407e3d5de5d060d
  7. b151de5eaefddf3d1cfc86f94cdbc3995ed5d406a6c0acfc99649a5d48d50794
  8. 5f7580b7f5a7f09ff7675565fb36c19876079a6c101f721419a5a07a7a23b1c1
Last event
bca928949831…c6c529
Note
Checkpoint text
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1
854
hCgXqyb5olIe961gFNy5VKlZ6TWfV4qJ9cOpLH33qs4=

— earthdeck TkCXv4aDxvyvQYJRvBgPtDUJOpfIw1HGQb9y5odOvbIhnVuG/sWj9/xVVekah5GQglG6yeUuq+KqfNruZfqFA2D32Qg=

Re-derive every entry, signature and trust rule yourself:

npx -y earthdeck ledger verify --remote https://vitalearth.io
Case events + proof (JSON)Signed checkpointPublic keyFull log (JSONL)