{"finding":{"findingId":"01a0e6b5-a503-72fb-bc89-d099570dc766","status":"published","tier":2,"rule":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5,"revisitHours":18}},"title":"New flaring near Hoveyzeh, Khuzestan (Iran)","summary":"1 persistent VIIRS night-time heat cluster(s) near Hoveyzeh, Khuzestan (Iran) are not in the flare registry: no site of the VNF 2023 and 2024 annual summaries within 2 km. One was lit 27 of the last 30 nights (max 27.6 MW) at 31.2365, 47.9649. It may be a new flare — or a furnace, or a flare too small for EOG's annual product; a later pass confirms the heat, not its cause.","geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[47.965,31.237]},"bbox":[47.49,30.91,47.98,31.24],"aoi":{"id":"flare-irq-31p1n-47p8e","name":"Flare field near Hoveyzeh, Khuzestan (Iran) — 11 registered sites","tags":["flaring","oil-gas","discovered","irq","irn_ups_47.7897e_31.0899n","new-flare"]},"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[]},"blindSpots":["Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.","Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.","FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.","Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.","No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.","Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.","The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week.","'New flaring' only means no site of the VNF 2023/2024 annual summaries within 2 km: a flare too small or too cloudy for EOG's annual product, or a new furnace, also qualifies."],"observedAt":"2026-09-27T00:00:00Z","createdAt":"2026-09-28T06:30:14.351Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-29T06:30:16.204Z","createdBy":"system:flaring@1.0","confirmed":{"at":"2026-09-29T00:30:16.276Z","independence":"revisit","signal":{"id":"firms-flaring-flare-irq-31p1n-47p8e-2026-09-28-revisit","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-28T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[47.49,30.91,47.98,31.24],"clusterKm":1,"days":2,"limit":50,"minFrp":5,"minNights":1,"vnf":false}},"summary":"Night-time heat with FRP ≥ 5 MW again at the flagged cluster on a later pass (2026-09-28).","values":{"clusters":1,"maxFrp":7.1}}},"evidence":[{"id":"firms-flaring-flare-irq-31p1n-47p8e-2026-08-30-2026-09-28","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-27T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[47.49,30.91,47.98,31.24],"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"limit":20,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5}},"summary":"5 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-30…2026-09-28); new cluster (no VNF 2023 and 2024 site within 2 km) 27 nights, max 27.6 MW at 31.2365, 47.9649.","values":{"hotNightDetections":683,"maxFrp":40.93,"maxNights":27,"newClusters":1,"new_flare":1,"persistentClusters":5,"vnfMatched":4,"vnfTopBcm":0.356,"vnfTopKm":0.04,"vnfYear":2024}},{"id":"firms-flaring-flare-irq-31p1n-47p8e-2026-08-31-2026-09-29","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-28T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[47.49,30.91,47.98,31.24],"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"limit":20,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5}},"summary":"5 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-31…2026-09-29); new cluster (no VNF 2023 and 2024 site within 2 km) 27 nights, max 27.6 MW at 31.2366, 47.9649.","values":{"hotNightDetections":685,"maxFrp":40.93,"maxNights":27,"newClusters":1,"new_flare":1,"persistentClusters":5,"vnfMatched":4,"vnfTopBcm":0.356,"vnfTopKm":0.05,"vnfYear":2024}}],"attribution":null,"narration":{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0eac0-e6d9-732f-b9a1-3379e7267329","findingId":"01a0e6b5-a503-72fb-bc89-d099570dc766","at":"2026-09-29T01:21:45.689Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"32cb1b6f75c8b434b1d48a507e680b7e90798b134f183256282926e1e0e59bf1","kind":"narrated","text":"Persistent night-time heat near Hoveyzeh, Khuzestan sits outside the flare registry\n\nNight-time infrared passes from NOAA-20 and NOAA-21 picked up a heat source at 31.2365, 47.9649 near Hoveyzeh, Khuzestan (Iran) that was lit on 27 of the last 30 nights, peaking at 27.6 MW. It is one of 5 persistent clusters in this flare field; 4 match sites in the EOG VNF annual summaries, this one does not — no registered flare within 2 km. A later pass on 28 September saw heat again at the same spot, at 7.1 MW. That revisit confirms the heat is real and repeating; it does not confirm what is burning.\n\nWhat this might not be: the sensor cannot separate a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery unit or kiln. \"New\" only means absent from the 2023 and 2024 annual flare lists — a flare too small or too often clouded for that product would also look new. Heat is also not volume: FRP is a single-pixel estimate, and unlit venting is invisible entirely.\n\nWhat would change our mind: an asset registry or high-resolution imagery showing a fixed plant rather than a stack; appearance of the site in a later VNF annual summary; or the heat stopping, which would argue for a temporary burn.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Nights lit out of 30: 27 [firms-flaring-flare-irq-31p1n-47p8e-2026-08-30-2026-09-28]\n- Peak fire radiative power at new cluster (MW): 27.6 [firms-flaring-flare-irq-31p1n-47p8e-2026-08-30-2026-09-28]\n- New clusters not in flare registry: 1 [firms-flaring-flare-irq-31p1n-47p8e-2026-08-30-2026-09-28]\n- Persistent clusters in the field: 5 [firms-flaring-flare-irq-31p1n-47p8e-2026-08-30-2026-09-28]\n- Clusters matched to VNF registry: 4 [firms-flaring-flare-irq-31p1n-47p8e-2026-08-30-2026-09-28]\n- FRP on confirming pass, 28 Sep (MW): 7.1 [firms-flaring-flare-irq-31p1n-47p8e-2026-09-28-revisit]\n\nConfidence: medium\nCaveats:\n- Thermal sensors cannot distinguish a gas flare from a furnace, refinery or kiln.\n- \"New\" means only that no VNF 2023/2024 site lies within 2 km; small or cloud-obscured flares are missed by that annual product.\n- FRP is not flared volume; VIIRS can saturate and the estimate is single-pixel.\n- Cloud or smoke can hide nights and understate persistence.\n- Only two passes per night (~01:30 local); short or intermittent burning between passes is missed.\n- No operator or ownership attribution — this is a location, not an asset or company.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"daac17ac60ccc869a5c2ece81ff5de9dd5e5fa194fe1943dbfcc4bb52e76a90f","transcriptSha256":"30d6493a2a890cccec2090c1fc2643703bee5559952bbd1f811a841bc9c13d3b","evidenceRefs":["firms-flaring-flare-irq-31p1n-47p8e-2026-08-30-2026-09-28","firms-flaring-flare-irq-31p1n-47p8e-2026-09-28-revisit"]},"reviews":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0eac0-f8ab-7388-83a8-9936c47dbc5f","findingId":"01a0e6b5-a503-72fb-bc89-d099570dc766","at":"2026-09-29T01:21:50.251Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"238a1b25a2e6c4e6ac636ad83f20f79cf525a99fae92a6da97008ce61321ab0a","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":2,"note":"All numeric claims (27/30 nights, 27.6 MW, 5 persistent clusters, 4 VNF matches, 7.1 MW revisit) match the evidence values exactly.; Narration clearly states the confirming pass verifies heat recurrence, not cause, matching the finding's caveat.; Blind spots are well represented: furnace/kiln ambiguity, VNF-absence limits, FRP vs volume, cloud gaps, revisit cadence, and lack of ownership attribution are all covered.; No individuals are named or identifiable; only a location and infrastructure are described.; AOI control flag is false, consistent with this being a genuine discovery-tagged flaring finding, not a control site.","verdict":"publish"}],"notifications":[],"replies":[],"retracted":null,"history":[{"at":"2026-09-28T06:30:14.351Z","kind":"created","status":"candidate","actor":"system:flaring@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-29T00:30:16.276Z","kind":"confirmed","status":"confirmed","actor":"system:flaring@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-29T01:21:45.689Z","kind":"narrated","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-opus-5"},{"at":"2026-09-29T01:21:50.251Z","kind":"reviewed","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"},{"at":"2026-09-29T01:21:50.264Z","kind":"status_changed","status":"published","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"},{"at":"2026-09-29T06:30:16.204Z","kind":"evidence_added","status":"published","actor":"system:flaring@1.0"}],"eventCount":6,"lastEventHash":"6536a46c1f9609f5f55266629dd212dc13988670edc6fd58717c4bc73405bb7e"},"events":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e6b5-a504-7e23-ae73-2f1296d0168b","findingId":"01a0e6b5-a503-72fb-bc89-d099570dc766","at":"2026-09-28T06:30:14.351Z","actor":"system:flaring@1.0","prev":null,"kind":"created","rule":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5,"revisitHours":18}},"title":"New flaring near Hoveyzeh, Khuzestan (Iran)","summary":"1 persistent VIIRS night-time heat cluster(s) near Hoveyzeh, Khuzestan (Iran) are not in the flare registry: no site of the VNF 2023 and 2024 annual summaries within 2 km. One was lit 27 of the last 30 nights (max 27.6 MW) at 31.2365, 47.9649. It may be a new flare — or a furnace, or a flare too small for EOG's annual product; a later pass confirms the heat, not its cause.","tier":2,"geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[47.965,31.237]},"bbox":[47.49,30.91,47.98,31.24],"aoi":{"id":"flare-irq-31p1n-47p8e","name":"Flare field near Hoveyzeh, Khuzestan (Iran) — 11 registered sites","tags":["flaring","oil-gas","discovered","irq","irn_ups_47.7897e_31.0899n","new-flare"]},"observedAt":"2026-09-27T00:00:00Z","evidence":[{"id":"firms-flaring-flare-irq-31p1n-47p8e-2026-08-30-2026-09-28","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-27T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[47.49,30.91,47.98,31.24],"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"limit":20,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5}},"summary":"5 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-30…2026-09-28); new cluster (no VNF 2023 and 2024 site within 2 km) 27 nights, max 27.6 MW at 31.2365, 47.9649.","values":{"hotNightDetections":683,"maxFrp":40.93,"maxNights":27,"newClusters":1,"new_flare":1,"persistentClusters":5,"vnfMatched":4,"vnfTopBcm":0.356,"vnfTopKm":0.04,"vnfYear":2024}}],"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[]},"blindSpots":["Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.","Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.","FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.","Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.","No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.","Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.","The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week.","'New flaring' only means no site of the VNF 2023/2024 annual summaries within 2 km: a flare too small or too cloudy for EOG's annual product, or a new furnace, also qualifies."]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0ea93-ed1a-7aa8-916b-bd7bd9ae547c","findingId":"01a0e6b5-a503-72fb-bc89-d099570dc766","at":"2026-09-29T00:30:16.276Z","actor":"system:flaring@1.0","prev":"a5dabcb818a1d83c9ca297b0e4cdffd69cf0b2f1b6652efc8ae5bf7a02a273c1","kind":"confirmed","signal":{"id":"firms-flaring-flare-irq-31p1n-47p8e-2026-09-28-revisit","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-28T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[47.49,30.91,47.98,31.24],"clusterKm":1,"days":2,"limit":50,"minFrp":5,"minNights":1,"vnf":false}},"summary":"Night-time heat with FRP ≥ 5 MW again at the flagged cluster on a later pass (2026-09-28).","values":{"clusters":1,"maxFrp":7.1}},"independence":"revisit"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0eac0-e6d9-732f-b9a1-3379e7267329","findingId":"01a0e6b5-a503-72fb-bc89-d099570dc766","at":"2026-09-29T01:21:45.689Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"32cb1b6f75c8b434b1d48a507e680b7e90798b134f183256282926e1e0e59bf1","kind":"narrated","text":"Persistent night-time heat near Hoveyzeh, Khuzestan sits outside the flare registry\n\nNight-time infrared passes from NOAA-20 and NOAA-21 picked up a heat source at 31.2365, 47.9649 near Hoveyzeh, Khuzestan (Iran) that was lit on 27 of the last 30 nights, peaking at 27.6 MW. It is one of 5 persistent clusters in this flare field; 4 match sites in the EOG VNF annual summaries, this one does not — no registered flare within 2 km. A later pass on 28 September saw heat again at the same spot, at 7.1 MW. That revisit confirms the heat is real and repeating; it does not confirm what is burning.\n\nWhat this might not be: the sensor cannot separate a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery unit or kiln. \"New\" only means absent from the 2023 and 2024 annual flare lists — a flare too small or too often clouded for that product would also look new. Heat is also not volume: FRP is a single-pixel estimate, and unlit venting is invisible entirely.\n\nWhat would change our mind: an asset registry or high-resolution imagery showing a fixed plant rather than a stack; appearance of the site in a later VNF annual summary; or the heat stopping, which would argue for a temporary burn.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Nights lit out of 30: 27 [firms-flaring-flare-irq-31p1n-47p8e-2026-08-30-2026-09-28]\n- Peak fire radiative power at new cluster (MW): 27.6 [firms-flaring-flare-irq-31p1n-47p8e-2026-08-30-2026-09-28]\n- New clusters not in flare registry: 1 [firms-flaring-flare-irq-31p1n-47p8e-2026-08-30-2026-09-28]\n- Persistent clusters in the field: 5 [firms-flaring-flare-irq-31p1n-47p8e-2026-08-30-2026-09-28]\n- Clusters matched to VNF registry: 4 [firms-flaring-flare-irq-31p1n-47p8e-2026-08-30-2026-09-28]\n- FRP on confirming pass, 28 Sep (MW): 7.1 [firms-flaring-flare-irq-31p1n-47p8e-2026-09-28-revisit]\n\nConfidence: medium\nCaveats:\n- Thermal sensors cannot distinguish a gas flare from a furnace, refinery or kiln.\n- \"New\" means only that no VNF 2023/2024 site lies within 2 km; small or cloud-obscured flares are missed by that annual product.\n- FRP is not flared volume; VIIRS can saturate and the estimate is single-pixel.\n- Cloud or smoke can hide nights and understate persistence.\n- Only two passes per night (~01:30 local); short or intermittent burning between passes is missed.\n- No operator or ownership attribution — this is a location, not an asset or company.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"daac17ac60ccc869a5c2ece81ff5de9dd5e5fa194fe1943dbfcc4bb52e76a90f","transcriptSha256":"30d6493a2a890cccec2090c1fc2643703bee5559952bbd1f811a841bc9c13d3b","evidenceRefs":["firms-flaring-flare-irq-31p1n-47p8e-2026-08-30-2026-09-28","firms-flaring-flare-irq-31p1n-47p8e-2026-09-28-revisit"]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0eac0-f8ab-7388-83a8-9936c47dbc5f","findingId":"01a0e6b5-a503-72fb-bc89-d099570dc766","at":"2026-09-29T01:21:50.251Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"238a1b25a2e6c4e6ac636ad83f20f79cf525a99fae92a6da97008ce61321ab0a","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":2,"note":"All numeric claims (27/30 nights, 27.6 MW, 5 persistent clusters, 4 VNF matches, 7.1 MW revisit) match the evidence values exactly.; Narration clearly states the confirming pass verifies heat recurrence, not cause, matching the finding's caveat.; Blind spots are well represented: furnace/kiln ambiguity, VNF-absence limits, FRP vs volume, cloud gaps, revisit cadence, and lack of ownership attribution are all covered.; No individuals are named or identifiable; only a location and infrastructure are described.; AOI control flag is false, consistent with this being a genuine discovery-tagged flaring finding, not a control site.","verdict":"publish"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0eac0-f8b8-7198-9219-5b18c4adb3ee","findingId":"01a0e6b5-a503-72fb-bc89-d099570dc766","at":"2026-09-29T01:21:50.264Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"29ab0f67e7e1243f7e353cf5af3f334fe5a47483144a4c62bb61a523992681b7","kind":"status_changed","from":"confirmed","to":"published","reason":"autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)","gates":{"narratedBy":"model:claude-opus-5","reviewedBy":["model:claude-sonnet-5"],"policy":"2026-09-26-autonomous"}},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0ebdc-01bb-73b3-97c5-1c4fd144d617","findingId":"01a0e6b5-a503-72fb-bc89-d099570dc766","at":"2026-09-29T06:30:16.204Z","actor":"system:flaring@1.0","prev":"bca928949831d97725d14fec1b8193015065e55ec7ea4847577ecc2114c6c529","kind":"evidence_added","evidence":[{"id":"firms-flaring-flare-irq-31p1n-47p8e-2026-08-31-2026-09-29","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-28T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[47.49,30.91,47.98,31.24],"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"limit":20,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5}},"summary":"5 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-31…2026-09-29); new cluster (no VNF 2023 and 2024 site within 2 km) 27 nights, max 27.6 MW at 31.2366, 47.9649.","values":{"hotNightDetections":685,"maxFrp":40.93,"maxNights":27,"newClusters":1,"new_flare":1,"persistentClusters":5,"vnfMatched":4,"vnfTopBcm":0.356,"vnfTopKm":0.05,"vnfYear":2024}}]}],"inclusion":{"index":864,"leafHash":"64b9a88a53bbdfa3366f30a2b7fa40870b00b73e2a36c1383f3ff48ee6045570","proof":["f021e53100508b1c244f6c16fbf9ceb7c9f3ec0c854cc8043c656c87d1d6e3d8","f53eb6d181628034f59307d5afea43ea27dd33496e49da96e3169a63141046d2","71a85e208c2f8dc340522e3deb6239caf3cc060a8c75b6fd8407e3d5de5d060d","b151de5eaefddf3d1cfc86f94cdbc3995ed5d406a6c0acfc99649a5d48d50794","5f7580b7f5a7f09ff7675565fb36c19876079a6c101f721419a5a07a7a23b1c1"],"size":866,"root":"b327b8249a4c64d0cc7d54ef55c2f16c1580725fc7abfbeb0f60e29b34535352"}}