TerraKeepKeeping Earth within its limits
Cloud-free satellite view around Delhi (India), with the finding area outlined
28.61°N 77.21°ENASA Blue Marble via GIBS · outline = finding area
Published

Delhi: modelled PM2.5 above the WHO daily limit 8 days running, latest day 30 µg/m³

Delhi (India) · seen · published

Modelled fine-particle pollution (PM2.5) over central Delhi stayed above the World Health Organization's 24-hour guideline of 15 µg/m³ for 7 straight full days to 27 September 2026. That day's average was 24.9 µg/m³, about 1.7 times the guideline; across the week the mean was 52 µg/m³ and the worst day reached 73.3 µg/m³. A later check on 28 September still found 30 µg/m³, an eighth day running, which confirms a sustained episode rather than a one-day blip.

What this is not: it is not a measurement from a street-level monitor. CAMS is a global model with roughly 40 km grid cells, so it smooths city hotspots and can misplace dust or smoke plumes; the number is an area average, not a reading outside any one building. It covers PM2.5 only — ozone, NO₂ and indoor air are not judged — and the WHO figure is a health guideline, not a legal limit. No cause is assigned here.

What would change our mind: ground-monitor data disagreeing with the modelled daily means, a revision of the CAMS feed, or values dropping back below 15 µg/m³ on the following days.

Written by AI, then checked by a separate reviewer before publication. Every claim points at the evidence below.

What we saw

  • cams-global — CAMS PM2.5 daily means (UTC, ≥ 18 h): 7 trailing day(s) above 15 µg/m³, latest 2026-09-27 = 24.9. (Sep 27, 2026) See the source ↗
  • cams-global — Still above 15 µg/m³ on 2026-09-28: 30 µg/m³ (8 days running). (Sep 28, 2026) See the source ↗

What it might not be

  • CAMS is a ~40 km model, not a ground monitor; city hotspots are smoothed and dust or smoke plumes can be misplaced.
  • Confirmation is a repeat look at the same dataset (a revisit), not an independent instrument.
  • PM2.5 only — ozone, NO₂ and indoor air are not assessed.
  • The WHO 15 µg/m³ figure is a health guideline, not a legal limit.
  • Zero-key global feeds can go stale or be revised; a threshold crossing is a signal to look, not a verdict on cause.
  • Air quality: CAMS is a ~40 km model, not a monitor; it smooths city hotspots and can misplace dust and smoke plumes.
  • Air quality: PM2.5 only — ozone, NO₂ and indoor air are not judged, and the WHO guideline is a health line, not a legal limit.
  • All: global zero-key feeds can go stale or be revised; a threshold crossing is a signal to look, not a verdict on cause or impact.

What would change our mind

Newer satellite images that show no change, a correction from the data source, or a reply with evidence from the ground. If that happens, the case is marked “Turned out wrong” — in public — and it stays on this site.

Why this was published

Two separate sources agreed — cams-global, then cams-global — and a reviewer checked the evidence before it went up.

Replies

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Ledger id 01a0e5b2-06f0-736c-b118-19a24096e3b1

Technical details rule, evidence ids, history, proof
Rule
indicator_threshold v1.0
Tier
T1
Tags
air-quality, city
Confirmed
Yes — independent revisit signal, 2026-09-28
Rule FP rate
11 % · 1 of 9 decided
Location
28.61°N 77.21°E
Observed
2026-09-27
Opened
2026-09-28 by automatic rule indicator_threshold v1.0
  1. candidate
  2. confirmed
  3. published
  4. resolved

Evidence2

seriescams-global

CAMS PM2.5 daily means (UTC, ≥ 18 h): 7 trailing day(s) above 15 µg/m³, latest 2026-09-27 = 24.9.

days_over 7guideline_ugm3 15pm25_daily_ugm3 24.9pm25_max_ugm3 73.3pm25_mean_ugm3 52times_guideline 1.7
· indicator_threshold v1.0 · cams-pm25-air-delhi-2026-09-27
Source ↗
seriescams-globalConfirming signal

Still above 15 µg/m³ on 2026-09-28: 30 µg/m³ (8 days running).

days_over 8pm25_daily_ugm3 30
· indicator_threshold v1.0 · cams-pm25-air-delhi-2026-09-28-persist
Source ↗

Context

ENSO El Niño · ONI +1.8
  • Dataset: Copernicus CAMS global forecast/analysis (~40 km) via Open-Meteo, hourly PM2.5 averaged to UTC days; last 7 days, forecast hours excluded.

Publication gates

  • Evidence — 1 piece from cams-global — met
  • Independent confirmation — a different revisit (cams-global), 2026-09-28 — met
  • Human approval — 1 of 1 needed at tier 1 — met
  • Narration — AI-drafted by claude-opus-5 — met
Published
2026-09-29 by AI model
Narrated By
AI model
Reviewed By
AI model
Policy
2026-09-26-autonomous
Note
autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)

History5

  1. status changed → publishedAI model
  2. reviewed → confirmedAI model
  3. narrated → confirmedAI model
  4. confirmed → confirmedautomatic rule indicator_threshold v1.0
  5. created → candidateautomatic rule indicator_threshold v1.0

Verify

Checkpoint
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1 · 854 entries
Signed root
842817ab26f9…f7aace
This case
5 signed events
Leaf
#838 of 854 — this case’s latest event
Leaf hash
94ce8713faf1…65d07b
Proof
8-hash audit path
  1. 674138882eb224e6dee631a3a4ae817e63fd109385643a747389d379346494f9
  2. 5639848df91c1884b19862524f8affaec8cc54c68133df5815f75d18185f35d5
  3. 5d8cf711fcaaed5552b31c377af07b091efd523ed15650065f820aa194cfa547
  4. 466491b195d0c6c50c01102db3a93a2db6df90b9fcce522f5bfa485c19d4504d
  5. 39f538d8c117910f61de676ff8fdfa537b14e09c3608c4d11e55d57096999195
  6. 71a85e208c2f8dc340522e3deb6239caf3cc060a8c75b6fd8407e3d5de5d060d
  7. b151de5eaefddf3d1cfc86f94cdbc3995ed5d406a6c0acfc99649a5d48d50794
  8. 5f7580b7f5a7f09ff7675565fb36c19876079a6c101f721419a5a07a7a23b1c1
Last event
ba71440d42ff…f168f7
Note
Checkpoint text
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1
854
hCgXqyb5olIe961gFNy5VKlZ6TWfV4qJ9cOpLH33qs4=

— earthdeck TkCXv4aDxvyvQYJRvBgPtDUJOpfIw1HGQb9y5odOvbIhnVuG/sWj9/xVVekah5GQglG6yeUuq+KqfNruZfqFA2D32Qg=

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