{"finding":{"findingId":"01a0e5b2-06f0-736c-b118-19a24096e3b1","status":"published","tier":1,"rule":{"name":"indicator_threshold","version":"1.0","params":{"indicator":"air_quality","lat":28.61,"lon":77.21,"minDays":3}},"title":"Delhi (India): fine-particle pollution above the WHO limit 7 days running — 24.9 µg/m³, 1.7× the guideline","summary":"Modelled PM2.5 near 28.61, 77.21 averaged 24.9 µg/m³ on 2026-09-27; every one of the last 7 full days was above the WHO 24-hour guideline of 15 µg/m³ (mean 52, worst day 73.3). Fine particles reach deep into the lungs; a later day still above the limit confirms the episode.","geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[77.21,28.61]},"bbox":[76.96,28.36,77.46,28.86],"aoi":{"id":"air-delhi","name":"Delhi (India)","tags":["air-quality","city"]},"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[],"notes":["Dataset: Copernicus CAMS global forecast/analysis (~40 km) via Open-Meteo, hourly PM2.5 averaged to UTC days; last 7 days, forecast hours excluded."]},"blindSpots":["Air quality: CAMS is a ~40 km model, not a monitor; it smooths city hotspots and can misplace dust and smoke plumes.","Air quality: PM2.5 only — ozone, NO₂ and indoor air are not judged, and the WHO guideline is a health line, not a legal limit.","All: global zero-key feeds can go stale or be revised; a threshold crossing is a signal to look, not a verdict on cause or impact."],"observedAt":"2026-09-27T00:00:00Z","createdAt":"2026-09-28T01:44:34.592Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-29T01:22:07.388Z","createdBy":"system:indicator_threshold@1.0","confirmed":{"at":"2026-09-28T19:40:22.178Z","independence":"revisit","signal":{"id":"cams-pm25-air-delhi-2026-09-28-persist","kind":"series","source":"cams-global","datetime":"2026-09-28T00:00:00Z","href":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/air-quality-api","method":{"name":"indicator_threshold","version":"1.0","params":{"guideline":15,"indicator":"air_quality","lat":28.61,"lon":77.21}},"summary":"Still above 15 µg/m³ on 2026-09-28: 30 µg/m³ (8 days running).","values":{"days_over":8,"pm25_daily_ugm3":30}}},"evidence":[{"id":"cams-pm25-air-delhi-2026-09-27","kind":"series","source":"cams-global","datetime":"2026-09-27T00:00:00Z","href":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/air-quality-api","method":{"name":"indicator_threshold","version":"1.0","params":{"guideline":15,"indicator":"air_quality","lat":28.61,"lon":77.21,"minDays":3}},"summary":"CAMS PM2.5 daily means (UTC, ≥ 18 h): 7 trailing day(s) above 15 µg/m³, latest 2026-09-27 = 24.9.","values":{"days_over":7,"guideline_ugm3":15,"pm25_daily_ugm3":24.9,"pm25_max_ugm3":73.3,"pm25_mean_ugm3":52,"times_guideline":1.7}}],"attribution":null,"narration":{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0eac1-2c21-70e4-8170-5ef8b5e67783","findingId":"01a0e5b2-06f0-736c-b118-19a24096e3b1","at":"2026-09-29T01:22:03.426Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"3b2546ac427c2954bd7adad5ff03b51e37d7244324953b321632a9ad6d1e0468","kind":"narrated","text":"Delhi: modelled PM2.5 above the WHO daily limit 8 days running, latest day 30 µg/m³\n\nModelled fine-particle pollution (PM2.5) over central Delhi stayed above the World Health Organization's 24-hour guideline of 15 µg/m³ for 7 straight full days to 27 September 2026. That day's average was 24.9 µg/m³, about 1.7 times the guideline; across the week the mean was 52 µg/m³ and the worst day reached 73.3 µg/m³. A later check on 28 September still found 30 µg/m³, an eighth day running, which confirms a sustained episode rather than a one-day blip.\n\nWhat this is not: it is not a measurement from a street-level monitor. CAMS is a global model with roughly 40 km grid cells, so it smooths city hotspots and can misplace dust or smoke plumes; the number is an area average, not a reading outside any one building. It covers PM2.5 only — ozone, NO₂ and indoor air are not judged — and the WHO figure is a health guideline, not a legal limit. No cause is assigned here.\n\nWhat would change our mind: ground-monitor data disagreeing with the modelled daily means, a revision of the CAMS feed, or values dropping back below 15 µg/m³ on the following days.\n\nKey numbers:\n- PM2.5 on 2026-09-27 (µg/m³): 24.9 [cams-pm25-air-delhi-2026-09-27]\n- WHO 24-hour guideline (µg/m³): 15 [cams-pm25-air-delhi-2026-09-27]\n- Times the guideline: 1.7 [cams-pm25-air-delhi-2026-09-27]\n- 7-day mean (µg/m³): 52 [cams-pm25-air-delhi-2026-09-27]\n- Worst day in the week (µg/m³): 73.3 [cams-pm25-air-delhi-2026-09-27]\n- Consecutive days above guideline at confirmation: 8 [cams-pm25-air-delhi-2026-09-28-persist]\n- PM2.5 on 2026-09-28 (µg/m³): 30 [cams-pm25-air-delhi-2026-09-28-persist]\n\nConfidence: high\nCaveats:\n- CAMS is a ~40 km model, not a ground monitor; city hotspots are smoothed and dust or smoke plumes can be misplaced.\n- Confirmation is a repeat look at the same dataset (a revisit), not an independent instrument.\n- PM2.5 only — ozone, NO₂ and indoor air are not assessed.\n- The WHO 15 µg/m³ figure is a health guideline, not a legal limit.\n- Zero-key global feeds can go stale or be revised; a threshold crossing is a signal to look, not a verdict on cause.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"e391f3dcdd1b88867b8eb6ad19e9e6817f50dec81f3984f35161663cb29464f8","transcriptSha256":"fae2004c901cdd1f87916cb5b83ee13bf8bbb6497a10aaf6b509ae3a8d2cec61","evidenceRefs":["cams-pm25-air-delhi-2026-09-27","cams-pm25-air-delhi-2026-09-28-persist"]},"reviews":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0eac1-3b8a-7b5d-b297-de266fbb4d35","findingId":"01a0e5b2-06f0-736c-b118-19a24096e3b1","at":"2026-09-29T01:22:07.370Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"09dc170671c8c2797f8aff120c5296d55df6804d01fe390334a99869c7cc587b","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":1,"note":"All numbers (24.9, 15, 1.7x, mean 52, max 73.3, 7 days, confirmation 30 µg/m³ on 8th day) match the evidence exactly; Narration clearly states blind spots: model resolution/smoothing, PM2.5-only scope, guideline vs legal limit, revisit vs independent confirmation, and possibility of feed staleness; No individuals are named; only a city location and dataset are discussed; AOI is tagged air-quality/city with control:false, correctly not a control site","verdict":"publish"}],"notifications":[],"replies":[],"retracted":null,"history":[{"at":"2026-09-28T01:44:34.592Z","kind":"created","status":"candidate","actor":"system:indicator_threshold@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-28T19:40:22.178Z","kind":"confirmed","status":"confirmed","actor":"system:indicator_threshold@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-29T01:22:03.426Z","kind":"narrated","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-opus-5"},{"at":"2026-09-29T01:22:07.370Z","kind":"reviewed","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"},{"at":"2026-09-29T01:22:07.388Z","kind":"status_changed","status":"published","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"}],"eventCount":5,"lastEventHash":"ba71440d42ff8fe4a5449b6062616555eef814d9eb1bb1e13d8e19ab2df168f7"},"events":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e5b2-06f0-7dc3-9dc4-b6d7434233a0","findingId":"01a0e5b2-06f0-736c-b118-19a24096e3b1","at":"2026-09-28T01:44:34.592Z","actor":"system:indicator_threshold@1.0","prev":null,"kind":"created","rule":{"name":"indicator_threshold","version":"1.0","params":{"indicator":"air_quality","lat":28.61,"lon":77.21,"minDays":3}},"title":"Delhi (India): fine-particle pollution above the WHO limit 7 days running — 24.9 µg/m³, 1.7× the guideline","summary":"Modelled PM2.5 near 28.61, 77.21 averaged 24.9 µg/m³ on 2026-09-27; every one of the last 7 full days was above the WHO 24-hour guideline of 15 µg/m³ (mean 52, worst day 73.3). Fine particles reach deep into the lungs; a later day still above the limit confirms the episode.","tier":1,"geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[77.21,28.61]},"bbox":[76.96,28.36,77.46,28.86],"aoi":{"id":"air-delhi","name":"Delhi (India)","tags":["air-quality","city"]},"observedAt":"2026-09-27T00:00:00Z","evidence":[{"id":"cams-pm25-air-delhi-2026-09-27","kind":"series","source":"cams-global","datetime":"2026-09-27T00:00:00Z","href":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/air-quality-api","method":{"name":"indicator_threshold","version":"1.0","params":{"guideline":15,"indicator":"air_quality","lat":28.61,"lon":77.21,"minDays":3}},"summary":"CAMS PM2.5 daily means (UTC, ≥ 18 h): 7 trailing day(s) above 15 µg/m³, latest 2026-09-27 = 24.9.","values":{"days_over":7,"guideline_ugm3":15,"pm25_daily_ugm3":24.9,"pm25_max_ugm3":73.3,"pm25_mean_ugm3":52,"times_guideline":1.7}}],"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[],"notes":["Dataset: Copernicus CAMS global forecast/analysis (~40 km) via Open-Meteo, hourly PM2.5 averaged to UTC days; last 7 days, forecast hours excluded."]},"blindSpots":["Air quality: CAMS is a ~40 km model, not a monitor; it smooths city hotspots and can misplace dust and smoke plumes.","Air quality: PM2.5 only — ozone, NO₂ and indoor air are not judged, and the WHO guideline is a health line, not a legal limit.","All: global zero-key feeds can go stale or be revised; a threshold crossing is a signal to look, not a verdict on cause or impact."]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e98a-57d9-7aa9-abdb-764792bb53bf","findingId":"01a0e5b2-06f0-736c-b118-19a24096e3b1","at":"2026-09-28T19:40:22.178Z","actor":"system:indicator_threshold@1.0","prev":"fbf47d0ec931b09383eed112d2ac17493f9b077f52e899d547e3da844d339479","kind":"confirmed","signal":{"id":"cams-pm25-air-delhi-2026-09-28-persist","kind":"series","source":"cams-global","datetime":"2026-09-28T00:00:00Z","href":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/air-quality-api","method":{"name":"indicator_threshold","version":"1.0","params":{"guideline":15,"indicator":"air_quality","lat":28.61,"lon":77.21}},"summary":"Still above 15 µg/m³ on 2026-09-28: 30 µg/m³ (8 days running).","values":{"days_over":8,"pm25_daily_ugm3":30}},"independence":"revisit"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0eac1-2c21-70e4-8170-5ef8b5e67783","findingId":"01a0e5b2-06f0-736c-b118-19a24096e3b1","at":"2026-09-29T01:22:03.426Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"3b2546ac427c2954bd7adad5ff03b51e37d7244324953b321632a9ad6d1e0468","kind":"narrated","text":"Delhi: modelled PM2.5 above the WHO daily limit 8 days running, latest day 30 µg/m³\n\nModelled fine-particle pollution (PM2.5) over central Delhi stayed above the World Health Organization's 24-hour guideline of 15 µg/m³ for 7 straight full days to 27 September 2026. That day's average was 24.9 µg/m³, about 1.7 times the guideline; across the week the mean was 52 µg/m³ and the worst day reached 73.3 µg/m³. A later check on 28 September still found 30 µg/m³, an eighth day running, which confirms a sustained episode rather than a one-day blip.\n\nWhat this is not: it is not a measurement from a street-level monitor. CAMS is a global model with roughly 40 km grid cells, so it smooths city hotspots and can misplace dust or smoke plumes; the number is an area average, not a reading outside any one building. It covers PM2.5 only — ozone, NO₂ and indoor air are not judged — and the WHO figure is a health guideline, not a legal limit. No cause is assigned here.\n\nWhat would change our mind: ground-monitor data disagreeing with the modelled daily means, a revision of the CAMS feed, or values dropping back below 15 µg/m³ on the following days.\n\nKey numbers:\n- PM2.5 on 2026-09-27 (µg/m³): 24.9 [cams-pm25-air-delhi-2026-09-27]\n- WHO 24-hour guideline (µg/m³): 15 [cams-pm25-air-delhi-2026-09-27]\n- Times the guideline: 1.7 [cams-pm25-air-delhi-2026-09-27]\n- 7-day mean (µg/m³): 52 [cams-pm25-air-delhi-2026-09-27]\n- Worst day in the week (µg/m³): 73.3 [cams-pm25-air-delhi-2026-09-27]\n- Consecutive days above guideline at confirmation: 8 [cams-pm25-air-delhi-2026-09-28-persist]\n- PM2.5 on 2026-09-28 (µg/m³): 30 [cams-pm25-air-delhi-2026-09-28-persist]\n\nConfidence: high\nCaveats:\n- CAMS is a ~40 km model, not a ground monitor; city hotspots are smoothed and dust or smoke plumes can be misplaced.\n- Confirmation is a repeat look at the same dataset (a revisit), not an independent instrument.\n- PM2.5 only — ozone, NO₂ and indoor air are not assessed.\n- The WHO 15 µg/m³ figure is a health guideline, not a legal limit.\n- Zero-key global feeds can go stale or be revised; a threshold crossing is a signal to look, not a verdict on cause.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"e391f3dcdd1b88867b8eb6ad19e9e6817f50dec81f3984f35161663cb29464f8","transcriptSha256":"fae2004c901cdd1f87916cb5b83ee13bf8bbb6497a10aaf6b509ae3a8d2cec61","evidenceRefs":["cams-pm25-air-delhi-2026-09-27","cams-pm25-air-delhi-2026-09-28-persist"]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0eac1-3b8a-7b5d-b297-de266fbb4d35","findingId":"01a0e5b2-06f0-736c-b118-19a24096e3b1","at":"2026-09-29T01:22:07.370Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"09dc170671c8c2797f8aff120c5296d55df6804d01fe390334a99869c7cc587b","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":1,"note":"All numbers (24.9, 15, 1.7x, mean 52, max 73.3, 7 days, confirmation 30 µg/m³ on 8th day) match the evidence exactly; Narration clearly states blind spots: model resolution/smoothing, PM2.5-only scope, guideline vs legal limit, revisit vs independent confirmation, and possibility of feed staleness; No individuals are named; only a city location and dataset are discussed; AOI is tagged air-quality/city with control:false, correctly not a control site","verdict":"publish"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0eac1-3b9c-7264-8f24-2c127f08b31a","findingId":"01a0e5b2-06f0-736c-b118-19a24096e3b1","at":"2026-09-29T01:22:07.388Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"132e65248b2d5ec16afa08fcdd7e1e79ef823b0c3c22412a21a846c8dd191dc8","kind":"status_changed","from":"confirmed","to":"published","reason":"autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)","gates":{"narratedBy":"model:claude-opus-5","reviewedBy":["model:claude-sonnet-5"],"policy":"2026-09-26-autonomous"}}],"inclusion":{"index":838,"leafHash":"94ce8713faf154993e55331dfb472a51a8a538ed750da8f9841741ded565d07b","proof":["674138882eb224e6dee631a3a4ae817e63fd109385643a747389d379346494f9","5639848df91c1884b19862524f8affaec8cc54c68133df5815f75d18185f35d5","5d8cf711fcaaed5552b31c377af07b091efd523ed15650065f820aa194cfa547","466491b195d0c6c50c01102db3a93a2db6df90b9fcce522f5bfa485c19d4504d","39f538d8c117910f61de676ff8fdfa537b14e09c3608c4d11e55d57096999195","71a85e208c2f8dc340522e3deb6239caf3cc060a8c75b6fd8407e3d5de5d060d","b151de5eaefddf3d1cfc86f94cdbc3995ed5d406a6c0acfc99649a5d48d50794","5f7580b7f5a7f09ff7675565fb36c19876079a6c101f721419a5a07a7a23b1c1"],"size":854,"root":"842817ab26f9a2521ef7ad6014dcb954a959e9359f578a89f5c3a92c7df7aace"}}