TerraKeepKeeping Earth within its limits
Cloud-free satellite view around Phoenix Islands Protected Area — tile 1/2, with the finding area outlined
3.73°S 174.31°WNASA Blue Marble via GIBS · outline = finding area
Published

1,667 hours of apparent fishing logged inside Phoenix Islands Protected Area in 30 days

Phoenix Islands Protected Area — tile 1/2 · seen · published

Satellite-tracked vessel movements analysed by Global Fishing Watch show 1666.6 hours of apparent fishing inside the legal boundary of the Phoenix Islands Protected Area within this watch box, between 28 August and 23 September 2026, on 27 of 30 days and involving vessels of 4 flag states. Across the whole reserve the model logs 3818.8 hours. An independent check using a different clip — a box drawn 15% in from each side — finds 867.2 hours, or 52% of the total, well inside the area rather than hugging the edge, so this is not a boundary-drawing artefact.

What this is not: it is not proof of illegal fishing. The reserve closed to commercial fishing in 2015, but Kiribati announced a reopening in 2021, so this effort may be licensed, and zoning inside the reserve is not modelled here. "Apparent fishing" is inferred from movement, not observed catch; transiting or drifting vessels can be misread. Vessels without AIS are invisible, and a flag state is not an owner.

What would change our mind: licence or zoning records covering these dates, gear-level tracks showing transit rather than fishing, or a revised GFW dataset version lowering the hours.

Written by AI, then checked by a separate reviewer before publication. Every claim points at the evidence below.

What we saw

  • globalfishingwatch-fishing-effort — 1666.6 h of apparent fishing inside the legal boundary of MPA 309888 (GFW polygon clip) within this watch box, 2026-08-28..2026-09-23; whole reserve by flag state: CHN 3529 h, NRU 221 h, KIR 42 h. Global Fishing Watch, 2026. www.globalfishingwatch.org. (Sep 23, 2026) See the source ↗
  • globalfishingwatch-fishing-effort — 867.2 h (52% of the 1666.6 h) lie in 0.01° cells well inside the area (box inset 15% per side) and inside the legal polygon — not a boundary artefact (bar 25 h). (Sep 23, 2026) See the source ↗

What it might not be

  • Fishing here may be lawful: Kiribati announced a reopening of the reserve in 2021, and internal zoning is not modelled.
  • "Apparent fishing" is model-inferred from AIS movement, not observed catch, and can be wrong for a given vessel track.
  • Vessels with AIS off, absent or spoofed are not counted, so the true figure could be higher.
  • Flag state is where a vessel is registered, not who owns or operates it; no responsibility is assigned here.
  • Data lag is about 4 days and GFW revises its effort model between dataset versions.
  • The boundary used is GFW's copy of the WDPA polygon on 0.01° cells with a centre-in rule.
  • The confirming check uses the same source and data, differing only in method, so it is not a fully independent observation.
  • Only vessels broadcasting AIS are seen: 'dark' vessels (AIS off, absent or spoofed) are invisible, and most small-scale boats carry no AIS at all.
  • Apparent fishing is inferred by a GFW model from vessel movement, not observed catch — it can be wrong for a given track.
  • Transiting, drifting or waiting vessels can be misread as fishing (and slow fishing as transit).
  • The legal boundary is GFW's copy of the WDPA polygon (0.01° cells, centre-in rule); without a WDPA id the watch box stands in for the boundary. Zoning inside a reserve is not modelled.
  • Some MPAs allow fishing legally in zones or for local/artisanal fleets (e.g. Galápagos, Phoenix Islands since 2021) — effort there may be lawful.
  • Data lag ~4 days, and GFW's effort model is revised between dataset versions.
  • Says nothing about who is responsible; flag state is where a vessel is registered, not who owns or controls it.

What would change our mind

Newer satellite images that show no change, a correction from the data source, or a reply with evidence from the ground. If that happens, the case is marked “Turned out wrong” — in public — and it stays on this site.

Why this was published

Two separate sources agreed — globalfishingwatch-fishing-effort, then globalfishingwatch-fishing-effort — and a reviewer checked the evidence before it went up.

Replies

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Ledger id 01a0e22b-237e-7e46-be7e-421629825a6c

Technical details rule, evidence ids, history, proof
Rule
mpa_fishing v1.0
Tier
T2
Tags
marine, marine-protected-area, fishing, kir, iucn-not-reported, fishing, marine-protected-area
Confirmed
Yes — independent method signal, 2026-09-27
Rule FP rate
33 % · 1 of 3 decided
Location
3.73°S 174.31°W
Observed
2026-09-23
Opened
2026-09-27 by automatic rule mpa_fishing v1.0
  1. candidate
  2. confirmed
  3. published
  4. resolved

Evidence2

recordglobalfishingwatch-fishing-effort

1666.6 h of apparent fishing inside the legal boundary of MPA 309888 (GFW polygon clip) within this watch box, 2026-08-28..2026-09-23; whole reserve by flag state: CHN 3529 h, NRU 221 h, KIR 42 h. Global Fishing Watch, 2026. www.globalfishingwatch.org.

activeDays 27days 30flagStates 4hours 1666.6reserveHours 3818.8
· fishing_activity v1.0 · gfw-fishing-mpa-phoenix-islands-1-2026-08-28-2026-09-27
Source ↗
recordglobalfishingwatch-fishing-effortConfirming signal

867.2 h (52% of the 1666.6 h) lie in 0.01° cells well inside the area (box inset 15% per side) and inside the legal polygon — not a boundary artefact (bar 25 h).

insetHours 867.2insetSharePct 52
· fishing_activity v1.0 · gfw-fishing-inset-mpa-phoenix-islands-1-2026-08-28-2026-09-27
Source ↗

Context

ENSO El Niño · ONI +1.8
  • Apparent fishing is model-inferred from AIS; vessels without AIS are not counted. Flag state ≠ owner.
  • Closed to commercial fishing 2015; Kiribati announced a reopening in 2021 — fishing here may be licensed.

Publication gates

  • Evidence — 1 piece from globalfishingwatch-fishing-effort — met
  • Independent confirmation — a different method (globalfishingwatch-fishing-effort), 2026-09-27 — met
  • Human approval — 1 of 2 needed at tier 2 — not met
  • Narration — AI-drafted by claude-opus-5 — met
Published
2026-09-28 by AI model
Narrated By
AI model
Reviewed By
AI model
Policy
2026-09-26-autonomous
Note
autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)

History5

  1. status changed → publishedAI model
  2. reviewed → confirmedAI model
  3. narrated → confirmedAI model
  4. confirmed → confirmedautomatic rule mpa_fishing v1.0
  5. created → candidateautomatic rule mpa_fishing v1.0

Verify

Checkpoint
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1 · 714 entries
Signed root
23ed27dda9a2…5fec16
This case
5 signed events
Leaf
#698 of 714 — this case’s latest event
Leaf hash
73ca9fae54db…e7f92a
Proof
9-hash audit path
  1. 4b31817403407dacc16a12713b6d44988c2054eb09a23390899c6ee8ffb1022c
  2. 55aee35020068da73617cc5b1d66e0aea8a3f8da8a2895c87f39ff36097b783c
  3. bdd54dcdf7b0cdf92bc9ec3d3bb9b21496ae7668b5f619a02019aa2ccbbb8851
  4. 713065a704b00aad76f8869f82e046e9492e3a7cd547d51a4a3bfb08b42147ab
  5. 89ea47a2db6f92bde86a283891634b3c2ce72e93ad607587cac01f8e71117f35
  6. 7dca4cb46e918bc2462caff163cbc3833e9d56e1231ed15deafc73303f4232da
  7. 5539526203a0f9a3fe1a73a93ff155b59f2e165868d80dfa2e6993baad67874b
  8. 4dcd70c622d414afaa3e0c21c3cf5233386d63f463994a07fff4e5e92c390f72
  9. 5f7580b7f5a7f09ff7675565fb36c19876079a6c101f721419a5a07a7a23b1c1
Last event
544dab8d1771…aa8051
Note
Checkpoint text
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1
714
I+0n3ami2iq+Pb01ZzA9/W1AK7wHekeD5OebmHxf7BY=

— earthdeck TkCXv0OmAxDtzaj1At98wE5s0VUwWeSCBAVzEDOuLw2Ioh7cGCd8Por/k57n26y0m4mCTkkb6qIdr6CB1+b6NmG1wgc=

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