{"finding":{"findingId":"01a0e22b-237e-7e46-be7e-421629825a6c","status":"published","tier":2,"rule":{"name":"mpa_fishing","version":"1.0","params":{"days":30,"insetFrac":0.15,"insetShare":0.5,"legalNote":"Closed to commercial fishing 2015; Kiribati announced a reopening in 2021 — fishing here may be licensed.","minHours":50,"mpaId":"309888","mpaName":"Phoenix Islands Protected Area","resolution":"HIGH","revisitDays":7}},"title":"Fishing activity inside Phoenix Islands Protected Area: 1667 hours in 30 days","summary":"Global Fishing Watch shows 1667 hours of apparent fishing inside Phoenix Islands Protected Area over the last 30 days (vessels of 4 flag states). The area is a no-take or strictly protected marine reserve. Awaiting an independent check: the effort lying well inside the area rather than along its edge, or still there a week later.","geometry":{"type":"Polygon","coordinates":[[[-175.84,-6.48],[-172.77,-6.48],[-172.77,-0.98],[-175.84,-0.98],[-175.84,-6.48]]]},"bbox":[-175.84,-6.48,-172.77,-0.98],"aoi":{"id":"mpa-phoenix-islands-1","name":"Phoenix Islands Protected Area — tile 1/2","tags":["marine","marine-protected-area","fishing","kir","iucn-not-reported","fishing","marine-protected-area"]},"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[],"notes":["Apparent fishing is model-inferred from AIS; vessels without AIS are not counted. Flag state ≠ owner.","Closed to commercial fishing 2015; Kiribati announced a reopening in 2021 — fishing here may be licensed."]},"blindSpots":["Only vessels broadcasting AIS are seen: 'dark' vessels (AIS off, absent or spoofed) are invisible, and most small-scale boats carry no AIS at all.","Apparent fishing is inferred by a GFW model from vessel movement, not observed catch — it can be wrong for a given track.","Transiting, drifting or waiting vessels can be misread as fishing (and slow fishing as transit).","The legal boundary is GFW's copy of the WDPA polygon (0.01° cells, centre-in rule); without a WDPA id the watch box stands in for the boundary. Zoning inside a reserve is not modelled.","Some MPAs allow fishing legally in zones or for local/artisanal fleets (e.g. Galápagos, Phoenix Islands since 2021) — effort there may be lawful.","Data lag ~4 days, and GFW's effort model is revised between dataset versions.","Says nothing about who is responsible; flag state is where a vessel is registered, not who owns or controls it."],"observedAt":"2026-09-23T00:00:00Z","createdAt":"2026-09-27T09:20:51.617Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-28T01:31:35.991Z","createdBy":"system:mpa_fishing@1.0","confirmed":{"at":"2026-09-27T09:20:51.617Z","independence":"method","signal":{"id":"gfw-fishing-inset-mpa-phoenix-islands-1-2026-08-28-2026-09-27","kind":"record","source":"globalfishingwatch-fishing-effort","collection":"public-global-fishing-effort:v4.0","datetime":"2026-09-23T00:00:00Z","href":"https://globalfishingwatch.org/map","method":{"name":"fishing_activity","version":"1.0","params":{"byGear":false,"clipBBox":[-175.3795,-5.655,-173.2305,-1.805],"from":"2026-08-28","mpaId":"309888","resolution":"HIGH","to":"2026-09-27"}},"summary":"867.2 h (52% of the 1666.6 h) lie in 0.01° cells well inside the area (box inset 15% per side) and inside the legal polygon — not a boundary artefact (bar 25 h).","values":{"insetHours":867.2,"insetSharePct":52}}},"evidence":[{"id":"gfw-fishing-mpa-phoenix-islands-1-2026-08-28-2026-09-27","kind":"record","source":"globalfishingwatch-fishing-effort","collection":"public-global-fishing-effort:v4.0","datetime":"2026-09-23T00:00:00Z","href":"https://globalfishingwatch.org/map","method":{"name":"fishing_activity","version":"1.0","params":{"byGear":false,"clipBBox":[-175.84,-6.48,-172.77,-0.98],"from":"2026-08-28","mpaId":"309888","resolution":"HIGH","to":"2026-09-27"}},"summary":"1666.6 h of apparent fishing inside the legal boundary of MPA 309888 (GFW polygon clip) within this watch box, 2026-08-28..2026-09-23; whole reserve by flag state: CHN 3529 h, NRU 221 h, KIR 42 h. Global Fishing Watch, 2026. www.globalfishingwatch.org.","values":{"activeDays":27,"days":30,"flagStates":4,"hours":1666.6,"reserveHours":3818.8}}],"attribution":null,"narration":{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e5a3-4369-7477-b92b-a02e2e137132","findingId":"01a0e22b-237e-7e46-be7e-421629825a6c","at":"2026-09-28T01:31:17.225Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"7c7cf37f0100c5453540f85955a137b35da8cdc6cc681b824af330fef04dded7","kind":"narrated","text":"1,667 hours of apparent fishing logged inside Phoenix Islands Protected Area in 30 days\n\nSatellite-tracked vessel movements analysed by Global Fishing Watch show 1666.6 hours of apparent fishing inside the legal boundary of the Phoenix Islands Protected Area within this watch box, between 28 August and 23 September 2026, on 27 of 30 days and involving vessels of 4 flag states. Across the whole reserve the model logs 3818.8 hours. An independent check using a different clip — a box drawn 15% in from each side — finds 867.2 hours, or 52% of the total, well inside the area rather than hugging the edge, so this is not a boundary-drawing artefact.\n\nWhat this is not: it is not proof of illegal fishing. The reserve closed to commercial fishing in 2015, but Kiribati announced a reopening in 2021, so this effort may be licensed, and zoning inside the reserve is not modelled here. \"Apparent fishing\" is inferred from movement, not observed catch; transiting or drifting vessels can be misread. Vessels without AIS are invisible, and a flag state is not an owner.\n\nWhat would change our mind: licence or zoning records covering these dates, gear-level tracks showing transit rather than fishing, or a revised GFW dataset version lowering the hours.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Apparent fishing hours in watch box (30 days): 1666.6 [gfw-fishing-mpa-phoenix-islands-1-2026-08-28-2026-09-27]\n- Apparent fishing hours across whole reserve: 3818.8 [gfw-fishing-mpa-phoenix-islands-1-2026-08-28-2026-09-27]\n- Days with activity out of 30: 27 [gfw-fishing-mpa-phoenix-islands-1-2026-08-28-2026-09-27]\n- Flag states involved: 4 [gfw-fishing-mpa-phoenix-islands-1-2026-08-28-2026-09-27]\n- Hours well inside the area (15% inset): 867.2 [gfw-fishing-inset-mpa-phoenix-islands-1-2026-08-28-2026-09-27]\n- Share of hours well inside the area (%): 52 [gfw-fishing-inset-mpa-phoenix-islands-1-2026-08-28-2026-09-27]\n\nConfidence: medium\nCaveats:\n- Fishing here may be lawful: Kiribati announced a reopening of the reserve in 2021, and internal zoning is not modelled.\n- \"Apparent fishing\" is model-inferred from AIS movement, not observed catch, and can be wrong for a given vessel track.\n- Vessels with AIS off, absent or spoofed are not counted, so the true figure could be higher.\n- Flag state is where a vessel is registered, not who owns or operates it; no responsibility is assigned here.\n- Data lag is about 4 days and GFW revises its effort model between dataset versions.\n- The boundary used is GFW's copy of the WDPA polygon on 0.01° cells with a centre-in rule.\n- The confirming check uses the same source and data, differing only in method, so it is not a fully independent observation.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"7b00c9a4f655ed9b2007365cb828bd18b775ca70c39e2d98594a466a235d8640","transcriptSha256":"457f05940222e649a78db7673fe1f9cfac6aae72a3c56bbf7b73901627bebbe1","evidenceRefs":["gfw-fishing-mpa-phoenix-islands-1-2026-08-28-2026-09-27","gfw-fishing-inset-mpa-phoenix-islands-1-2026-08-28-2026-09-27"]},"reviews":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e5a3-8cac-7baa-ad64-dc324ed004b3","findingId":"01a0e22b-237e-7e46-be7e-421629825a6c","at":"2026-09-28T01:31:35.980Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"9555b83fae12d1410ed4a27328250e047e3c84cbe1f33037c32e976980e8b889","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":2,"note":"All key figures (1666.6h, 3818.8h reserve-wide, 27/30 active days, 4 flag states, 867.2h/52% inset) match the evidence and confirmation signal exactly.; Narration clearly states this is not proof of illegal fishing, citing the 2021 reopening announcement and unmapped internal zoning as plausible lawful explanations.; AIS-based blind spots (dark vessels, movement-inferred fishing, transit misclassification, flag state ≠ owner, data lag, model revisions, WDPA boundary rule) are all acknowledged, plus an added caveat that the confirming check shares the same underlying source/data.; No individuals are named or identifiable — only flag states, models, and an NGO source are referenced.; AOI is not tagged 'control' and aoi.control is false, so this is a live finding, not a control-site test case, appropriate for publication.","verdict":"publish"}],"notifications":[],"replies":[],"retracted":null,"history":[{"at":"2026-09-27T09:20:51.617Z","kind":"created","status":"candidate","actor":"system:mpa_fishing@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-27T09:20:51.617Z","kind":"confirmed","status":"confirmed","actor":"system:mpa_fishing@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-28T01:31:17.225Z","kind":"narrated","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-opus-5"},{"at":"2026-09-28T01:31:35.980Z","kind":"reviewed","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"},{"at":"2026-09-28T01:31:35.991Z","kind":"status_changed","status":"published","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"}],"eventCount":5,"lastEventHash":"544dab8d1771d1f04a74c4644e9096fcf3c0a7a5ddd1b8496ebc76b083aa8051"},"events":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e22b-237f-7748-940b-5f73f152899a","findingId":"01a0e22b-237e-7e46-be7e-421629825a6c","at":"2026-09-27T09:20:51.617Z","actor":"system:mpa_fishing@1.0","prev":null,"kind":"created","rule":{"name":"mpa_fishing","version":"1.0","params":{"days":30,"insetFrac":0.15,"insetShare":0.5,"legalNote":"Closed to commercial fishing 2015; Kiribati announced a reopening in 2021 — fishing here may be licensed.","minHours":50,"mpaId":"309888","mpaName":"Phoenix Islands Protected Area","resolution":"HIGH","revisitDays":7}},"title":"Fishing activity inside Phoenix Islands Protected Area: 1667 hours in 30 days","summary":"Global Fishing Watch shows 1667 hours of apparent fishing inside Phoenix Islands Protected Area over the last 30 days (vessels of 4 flag states). The area is a no-take or strictly protected marine reserve. Awaiting an independent check: the effort lying well inside the area rather than along its edge, or still there a week later.","tier":2,"geometry":{"type":"Polygon","coordinates":[[[-175.84,-6.48],[-172.77,-6.48],[-172.77,-0.98],[-175.84,-0.98],[-175.84,-6.48]]]},"bbox":[-175.84,-6.48,-172.77,-0.98],"aoi":{"id":"mpa-phoenix-islands-1","name":"Phoenix Islands Protected Area — tile 1/2","tags":["marine","marine-protected-area","fishing","kir","iucn-not-reported","fishing","marine-protected-area"]},"observedAt":"2026-09-23T00:00:00Z","evidence":[{"id":"gfw-fishing-mpa-phoenix-islands-1-2026-08-28-2026-09-27","kind":"record","source":"globalfishingwatch-fishing-effort","collection":"public-global-fishing-effort:v4.0","datetime":"2026-09-23T00:00:00Z","href":"https://globalfishingwatch.org/map","method":{"name":"fishing_activity","version":"1.0","params":{"byGear":false,"clipBBox":[-175.84,-6.48,-172.77,-0.98],"from":"2026-08-28","mpaId":"309888","resolution":"HIGH","to":"2026-09-27"}},"summary":"1666.6 h of apparent fishing inside the legal boundary of MPA 309888 (GFW polygon clip) within this watch box, 2026-08-28..2026-09-23; whole reserve by flag state: CHN 3529 h, NRU 221 h, KIR 42 h. Global Fishing Watch, 2026. www.globalfishingwatch.org.","values":{"activeDays":27,"days":30,"flagStates":4,"hours":1666.6,"reserveHours":3818.8}}],"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[],"notes":["Apparent fishing is model-inferred from AIS; vessels without AIS are not counted. Flag state ≠ owner.","Closed to commercial fishing 2015; Kiribati announced a reopening in 2021 — fishing here may be licensed."]},"blindSpots":["Only vessels broadcasting AIS are seen: 'dark' vessels (AIS off, absent or spoofed) are invisible, and most small-scale boats carry no AIS at all.","Apparent fishing is inferred by a GFW model from vessel movement, not observed catch — it can be wrong for a given track.","Transiting, drifting or waiting vessels can be misread as fishing (and slow fishing as transit).","The legal boundary is GFW's copy of the WDPA polygon (0.01° cells, centre-in rule); without a WDPA id the watch box stands in for the boundary. Zoning inside a reserve is not modelled.","Some MPAs allow fishing legally in zones or for local/artisanal fleets (e.g. Galápagos, Phoenix Islands since 2021) — effort there may be lawful.","Data lag ~4 days, and GFW's effort model is revised between dataset versions.","Says nothing about who is responsible; flag state is where a vessel is registered, not who owns or controls it."]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e22b-2429-70d9-a2d3-caaa43d6d7f0","findingId":"01a0e22b-237e-7e46-be7e-421629825a6c","at":"2026-09-27T09:20:51.617Z","actor":"system:mpa_fishing@1.0","prev":"58201103a56b112468d70de7466844f900b2524e45c059239245c370de6fffa3","kind":"confirmed","signal":{"id":"gfw-fishing-inset-mpa-phoenix-islands-1-2026-08-28-2026-09-27","kind":"record","source":"globalfishingwatch-fishing-effort","collection":"public-global-fishing-effort:v4.0","datetime":"2026-09-23T00:00:00Z","href":"https://globalfishingwatch.org/map","method":{"name":"fishing_activity","version":"1.0","params":{"byGear":false,"clipBBox":[-175.3795,-5.655,-173.2305,-1.805],"from":"2026-08-28","mpaId":"309888","resolution":"HIGH","to":"2026-09-27"}},"summary":"867.2 h (52% of the 1666.6 h) lie in 0.01° cells well inside the area (box inset 15% per side) and inside the legal polygon — not a boundary artefact (bar 25 h).","values":{"insetHours":867.2,"insetSharePct":52}},"independence":"method"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e5a3-4369-7477-b92b-a02e2e137132","findingId":"01a0e22b-237e-7e46-be7e-421629825a6c","at":"2026-09-28T01:31:17.225Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"7c7cf37f0100c5453540f85955a137b35da8cdc6cc681b824af330fef04dded7","kind":"narrated","text":"1,667 hours of apparent fishing logged inside Phoenix Islands Protected Area in 30 days\n\nSatellite-tracked vessel movements analysed by Global Fishing Watch show 1666.6 hours of apparent fishing inside the legal boundary of the Phoenix Islands Protected Area within this watch box, between 28 August and 23 September 2026, on 27 of 30 days and involving vessels of 4 flag states. Across the whole reserve the model logs 3818.8 hours. An independent check using a different clip — a box drawn 15% in from each side — finds 867.2 hours, or 52% of the total, well inside the area rather than hugging the edge, so this is not a boundary-drawing artefact.\n\nWhat this is not: it is not proof of illegal fishing. The reserve closed to commercial fishing in 2015, but Kiribati announced a reopening in 2021, so this effort may be licensed, and zoning inside the reserve is not modelled here. \"Apparent fishing\" is inferred from movement, not observed catch; transiting or drifting vessels can be misread. Vessels without AIS are invisible, and a flag state is not an owner.\n\nWhat would change our mind: licence or zoning records covering these dates, gear-level tracks showing transit rather than fishing, or a revised GFW dataset version lowering the hours.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Apparent fishing hours in watch box (30 days): 1666.6 [gfw-fishing-mpa-phoenix-islands-1-2026-08-28-2026-09-27]\n- Apparent fishing hours across whole reserve: 3818.8 [gfw-fishing-mpa-phoenix-islands-1-2026-08-28-2026-09-27]\n- Days with activity out of 30: 27 [gfw-fishing-mpa-phoenix-islands-1-2026-08-28-2026-09-27]\n- Flag states involved: 4 [gfw-fishing-mpa-phoenix-islands-1-2026-08-28-2026-09-27]\n- Hours well inside the area (15% inset): 867.2 [gfw-fishing-inset-mpa-phoenix-islands-1-2026-08-28-2026-09-27]\n- Share of hours well inside the area (%): 52 [gfw-fishing-inset-mpa-phoenix-islands-1-2026-08-28-2026-09-27]\n\nConfidence: medium\nCaveats:\n- Fishing here may be lawful: Kiribati announced a reopening of the reserve in 2021, and internal zoning is not modelled.\n- \"Apparent fishing\" is model-inferred from AIS movement, not observed catch, and can be wrong for a given vessel track.\n- Vessels with AIS off, absent or spoofed are not counted, so the true figure could be higher.\n- Flag state is where a vessel is registered, not who owns or operates it; no responsibility is assigned here.\n- Data lag is about 4 days and GFW revises its effort model between dataset versions.\n- The boundary used is GFW's copy of the WDPA polygon on 0.01° cells with a centre-in rule.\n- The confirming check uses the same source and data, differing only in method, so it is not a fully independent observation.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"7b00c9a4f655ed9b2007365cb828bd18b775ca70c39e2d98594a466a235d8640","transcriptSha256":"457f05940222e649a78db7673fe1f9cfac6aae72a3c56bbf7b73901627bebbe1","evidenceRefs":["gfw-fishing-mpa-phoenix-islands-1-2026-08-28-2026-09-27","gfw-fishing-inset-mpa-phoenix-islands-1-2026-08-28-2026-09-27"]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e5a3-8cac-7baa-ad64-dc324ed004b3","findingId":"01a0e22b-237e-7e46-be7e-421629825a6c","at":"2026-09-28T01:31:35.980Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"9555b83fae12d1410ed4a27328250e047e3c84cbe1f33037c32e976980e8b889","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":2,"note":"All key figures (1666.6h, 3818.8h reserve-wide, 27/30 active days, 4 flag states, 867.2h/52% inset) match the evidence and confirmation signal exactly.; Narration clearly states this is not proof of illegal fishing, citing the 2021 reopening announcement and unmapped internal zoning as plausible lawful explanations.; AIS-based blind spots (dark vessels, movement-inferred fishing, transit misclassification, flag state ≠ owner, data lag, model revisions, WDPA boundary rule) are all acknowledged, plus an added caveat that the confirming check shares the same underlying source/data.; No individuals are named or identifiable — only flag states, models, and an NGO source are referenced.; AOI is not tagged 'control' and aoi.control is false, so this is a live finding, not a control-site test case, appropriate for publication.","verdict":"publish"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e5a3-8cb7-70e6-9889-2ba239c4a3f1","findingId":"01a0e22b-237e-7e46-be7e-421629825a6c","at":"2026-09-28T01:31:35.991Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"89953bbcaabdd5a3a83d69f16fb2b1b2c987e6468a83ad285e4fcc48b11681fd","kind":"status_changed","from":"confirmed","to":"published","reason":"autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)","gates":{"narratedBy":"model:claude-opus-5","reviewedBy":["model:claude-sonnet-5"],"policy":"2026-09-26-autonomous"}}],"inclusion":{"index":698,"leafHash":"73ca9fae54db479b3879585d8440e59ce79fb6470cee3cb67d243abd91e7f92a","proof":["4b31817403407dacc16a12713b6d44988c2054eb09a23390899c6ee8ffb1022c","55aee35020068da73617cc5b1d66e0aea8a3f8da8a2895c87f39ff36097b783c","bdd54dcdf7b0cdf92bc9ec3d3bb9b21496ae7668b5f619a02019aa2ccbbb8851","713065a704b00aad76f8869f82e046e9492e3a7cd547d51a4a3bfb08b42147ab","89ea47a2db6f92bde86a283891634b3c2ce72e93ad607587cac01f8e71117f35","7dca4cb46e918bc2462caff163cbc3833e9d56e1231ed15deafc73303f4232da","5539526203a0f9a3fe1a73a93ff155b59f2e165868d80dfa2e6993baad67874b","4dcd70c622d414afaa3e0c21c3cf5233386d63f463994a07fff4e5e92c390f72","5f7580b7f5a7f09ff7675565fb36c19876079a6c101f721419a5a07a7a23b1c1"],"size":714,"root":"23ed27dda9a2da2abe3dbd3567303dfd6d402bbc077a4783e4e79b987c5fec16"}}