TerraKeepKeeping Earth within its limits
Cloud-free satellite view around World: marine protected areas, with the finding area outlined
0.00°N 0.00°ENASA Blue Marble via GIBS · outline = finding area
Published

Marine protected areas reach 17.5% of territorial waters in 2025, up from 14% the year before

World: marine protected areas · seen · published

The share of the world's territorial waters inside marine protected areas is reported at 17.464169% for 2025, up from 14.014829% in 2024 — a rise of 24.61%. Over the last ten years of data the series is improving at 31.8% per decade. The data comes from UNEP-WCMC via the World Bank, published through Our World in Data. A re-read of the same source months later returned the identical 2025 value, showing the number has not been revised.

What this is not: it is not a measurement of ocean health. A protected area is a line on a map and a legal designation; this indicator says nothing about how well those waters are patrolled or whether species inside them are recovering. Global annual indicators also lag reality by one to five years, and a single world total hides geography — strong growth in a few large designations can sit alongside losses elsewhere. The confirming re-read comes from the same provider, so it tests data stability, not accuracy.

What would change our mind: a revised back-series or an upstream method change from UNEP-WCMC, or a later year that breaks the ten-year upward trend.

Written by AI, then checked by a separate reviewer before publication. Every claim points at the evidence below.

What we saw

  • owid-grapher — Marine protected areas: 2025 = 17.464169 (2024 = 14.014829) % of territorial waters; 10-year trend 31.8% per decade (improving). Upstream: UNEP-WCMC via World Bank. (Jan 1, 2025) See the source ↗
  • owid-grapher — Re-read on 2026-09-27: 2025 value unchanged at 17.464169 — the source has not revised it. Same provider (data stability, not an independent measurement). (Jan 1, 2025) See the source ↗

What it might not be

  • Measures designated area, not enforcement or ecological outcome.
  • Annual global indicators can lag reality by 1–5 years.
  • A world aggregate hides regional gains and losses.
  • Confirmation is a re-read from the same provider, not an independent measurement.
  • Upstream method changes or a revised back-series could alter the trend.
  • Annual global indicators lag reality by 1–5 years: a 'new' value can describe a year long past.
  • The direction is the 10-year trend, not the single year: one year can move against the trend, and the title then says so.
  • Global aggregates hide where it happens — a stable global number can mask collapse in one region and recovery in another.
  • Confirmation only proves the source did not revise the number on a later read — same provider, not an independent measurement.
  • Some series are single sites (ocean pH is Station ALOHA, Hawaii) or modelled composites (Living Planet Index) with wide uncertainty bands we do not show.
  • Upstream methods change between releases; a revised back-series can make a year look new or change the trend.

What would change our mind

Newer satellite images that show no change, a correction from the data source, or a reply with evidence from the ground. If that happens, the case is marked “Turned out wrong” — in public — and it stays on this site.

Why this was published

Two separate sources agreed — owid-grapher, then owid-grapher — and a reviewer checked the evidence before it went up.

Replies

Know this place? Say what you see. Replies are checked before they appear. No account, no email.

Replies are open on the interactive site (it needs JavaScript).

Ledger id 01a0e1f1-3362-7534-9200-4240015937d8

Technical details rule, evidence ids, history, proof
Rule
indicator_trend v1.0
Tier
T1
Tags
world-indicator, improvement
Confirmed
Yes — independent method signal, 2026-09-27
Rule FP rate
0 % · 0 of 6 decided
Location
0.00°N 0.00°E
Observed
2025-01-01
Opened
2026-09-27 by automatic rule indicator_trend v1.0
  1. candidate
  2. confirmed
  3. published
  4. resolved

Evidence2

seriesowid-grapher

Marine protected areas: 2025 = 17.464169 (2024 = 14.014829) % of territorial waters; 10-year trend 31.8% per decade (improving). Upstream: UNEP-WCMC via World Bank.

changePct 24.61pctPerDecade 31.8previous 14.014829value 17.464169year 2025
· indicator_trend v1.0 · owid-marine-protected-areas-2025
Source ↗
seriesowid-grapherConfirming signal

Re-read on 2026-09-27: 2025 value unchanged at 17.464169 — the source has not revised it. Same provider (data stability, not an independent measurement).

value 17.464169year 2025
· indicator_trend v1.0 · owid-marine-protected-areas-2025-reread-2026-09-27
Source ↗

Context

ENSO El Niño · ONI +1.8Severe Storms: Tropical Storm GonzaloSea and Lake Ice: Iceberg D33CSevere Storms: Hurricane NoloSevere Storms: Typhoon SurigaeWildfires: Wildfire Merit Creek, Greene, MississippiSevere Storms: Tropical Cyclone 01BSevere Storms: Hurricane PoloWildfires: Wildfire Round Prarie, Morehouse, LouisianaSevere Storms: Tropical Storm FaySevere Storms: Hurricane OdalysWildfires: Prescribed Fire CRAWFORD CORRAL RX, Tulare, CaliforniaSea and Lake Ice: Iceberg A83Sea and Lake Ice: Iceberg B22FWildfires: Prescribed Fire D2 Dye RX, Coconino, ArizonaWildfires: Prescribed Fire D2 Vincent RX, Coconino, ArizonaWildfires: Wildfire Breezy, Starr, TexasWildfires: Wildfire FLORISTON, Nevada, CaliforniaSevere Storms: Typhoon DujuanWildfires: Prescribed Fire RX CALV BU 104-108, Vernon, LouisianaWildfires: Wildfire Clark, Edwards, Texas
  • Dataset: UNEP-WCMC via World Bank via Our World in Data (grapher marine-protected-areas); annual series, direction = 10-year linear trend.

Publication gates

  • Evidence — 1 piece from owid-grapher — met
  • Independent confirmation — a different method (owid-grapher), 2026-09-27 — met
  • Human approval — 1 of 1 needed at tier 1 — met
  • Narration — AI-drafted by claude-opus-5 — met
Published
2026-09-28 by AI model
Narrated By
AI model
Reviewed By
AI model
Policy
2026-09-26-autonomous
Note
autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)

History5

  1. status changed → publishedAI model
  2. reviewed → confirmedAI model
  3. narrated → confirmedAI model
  4. confirmed → confirmedautomatic rule indicator_trend v1.0
  5. created → candidateautomatic rule indicator_trend v1.0

Verify

Checkpoint
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1 · 714 entries
Signed root
23ed27dda9a2…5fec16
This case
5 signed events
Leaf
#686 of 714 — this case’s latest event
Leaf hash
fcd47bd3ba9a…42e2e9
Proof
9-hash audit path
  1. 4b45d37ca733849fb02a9bfa47d728b0d2b6aa5efae96733711191db0633cc2f
  2. 5406331e274e4c453fbc472726dbdde83f7aa7e4f1f137b09383c45e3fab0047
  3. d3c74e7a39f0850116e825e0f15b2166efd05ea6d768a51bae664b4b98aafca9
  4. 84aa041188a5988ee7151b2a6d9e5d00342b8bfc030d3fcb41a4c0a095802dc6
  5. c48fa2ba50cdabb32516076c29670733ce7e2a0fc952437c43016bfc442f989b
  6. 7dca4cb46e918bc2462caff163cbc3833e9d56e1231ed15deafc73303f4232da
  7. 5539526203a0f9a3fe1a73a93ff155b59f2e165868d80dfa2e6993baad67874b
  8. 4dcd70c622d414afaa3e0c21c3cf5233386d63f463994a07fff4e5e92c390f72
  9. 5f7580b7f5a7f09ff7675565fb36c19876079a6c101f721419a5a07a7a23b1c1
Last event
d8215047a8d2…1606b9
Note
Checkpoint text
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1
714
I+0n3ami2iq+Pb01ZzA9/W1AK7wHekeD5OebmHxf7BY=

— earthdeck TkCXv0OmAxDtzaj1At98wE5s0VUwWeSCBAVzEDOuLw2Ioh7cGCd8Por/k57n26y0m4mCTkkb6qIdr6CB1+b6NmG1wgc=

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