{"finding":{"findingId":"01a0e1f1-3362-7534-9200-4240015937d8","status":"published","tier":1,"rule":{"name":"indicator_trend","version":"1.0","params":{"indicator":"marine-protected-areas"}},"title":"Marine protected areas rose to 17.5 (% of territorial waters) in 2025 — more of the ocean is protected","summary":"Marine protected areas rose to 17.5 (% of territorial waters) in 2025, from 14 in 2024 (+24.61%). Over the last ten years of data it is improving (+31.8% per decade). Source: UNEP-WCMC via World Bank, via Our World in Data. A later read showing the same value confirms the source has not revised it.","geometry":{"type":"Polygon","coordinates":[[[-180,-90],[180,-90],[180,90],[-180,90],[-180,-90]]]},"bbox":[-180,-90,180,90],"aoi":{"id":"wp-marine-protected","name":"World: marine protected areas","tags":["world-indicator","improvement"]},"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[{"id":"EONET_24811","title":"Tropical Storm Gonzalo","category":"Severe Storms"},{"id":"EONET_6510","title":"Iceberg D33C","category":"Sea and Lake Ice"},{"id":"EONET_24786","title":"Hurricane Nolo","category":"Severe Storms"},{"id":"EONET_24787","title":"Typhoon Surigae","category":"Severe Storms"},{"id":"EONET_24809","title":"Wildfire Merit Creek, Greene, Mississippi","category":"Wildfires"},{"id":"EONET_24785","title":"Tropical Cyclone 01B","category":"Severe Storms"},{"id":"EONET_24721","title":"Hurricane Polo","category":"Severe Storms"},{"id":"EONET_24710","title":"Wildfire Round Prarie, Morehouse, Louisiana","category":"Wildfires"},{"id":"EONET_24722","title":"Tropical Storm Fay","category":"Severe Storms"},{"id":"EONET_24720","title":"Hurricane Odalys","category":"Severe Storms"},{"id":"EONET_24810","title":"Prescribed Fire CRAWFORD CORRAL RX, Tulare, California","category":"Wildfires"},{"id":"EONET_6523","title":"Iceberg A83","category":"Sea and Lake Ice"},{"id":"EONET_10212","title":"Iceberg B22F","category":"Sea and Lake Ice"},{"id":"EONET_24719","title":"Prescribed Fire D2 Dye RX, Coconino, Arizona","category":"Wildfires"},{"id":"EONET_24718","title":"Prescribed Fire D2 Vincent RX, Coconino, Arizona","category":"Wildfires"},{"id":"EONET_24483","title":"Wildfire Breezy, Starr, Texas","category":"Wildfires"},{"id":"EONET_24488","title":"Wildfire FLORISTON, Nevada, California","category":"Wildfires"},{"id":"EONET_24317","title":"Typhoon Dujuan","category":"Severe Storms"},{"id":"EONET_24499","title":"Prescribed Fire RX CALV BU 104-108, Vernon, Louisiana","category":"Wildfires"},{"id":"EONET_24482","title":"Wildfire Clark, Edwards, Texas","category":"Wildfires"}],"notes":["Dataset: UNEP-WCMC via World Bank via Our World in Data (grapher marine-protected-areas); annual series, direction = 10-year linear trend."]},"blindSpots":["Annual global indicators lag reality by 1–5 years: a 'new' value can describe a year long past.","The direction is the 10-year trend, not the single year: one year can move against the trend, and the title then says so.","Global aggregates hide where it happens — a stable global number can mask collapse in one region and recovery in another.","Confirmation only proves the source did not revise the number on a later read — same provider, not an independent measurement.","Some series are single sites (ocean pH is Station ALOHA, Hawaii) or modelled composites (Living Planet Index) with wide uncertainty bands we do not show.","Upstream methods change between releases; a revised back-series can make a year look new or change the trend."],"observedAt":"2025-01-01T00:00:00Z","createdAt":"2026-09-27T08:16:26.160Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-28T01:29:20.829Z","createdBy":"system:indicator_trend@1.0","confirmed":{"at":"2026-09-27T13:40:21.136Z","independence":"method","signal":{"id":"owid-marine-protected-areas-2025-reread-2026-09-27","kind":"series","source":"owid-grapher","collection":"marine-protected-areas","datetime":"2025-01-01T00:00:00Z","href":"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/marine-protected-areas","method":{"name":"indicator_trend","version":"1.0","params":{"indicator":"marine-protected-areas","retrievedAt":"2026-09-27T13:40:21.136Z"}},"summary":"Re-read on 2026-09-27: 2025 value unchanged at 17.464169 — the source has not revised it. Same provider (data stability, not an independent measurement).","values":{"value":17.464169,"year":2025}}},"evidence":[{"id":"owid-marine-protected-areas-2025","kind":"series","source":"owid-grapher","collection":"marine-protected-areas","datetime":"2025-01-01T00:00:00Z","href":"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/marine-protected-areas","method":{"name":"indicator_trend","version":"1.0","params":{"indicator":"marine-protected-areas","retrievedAt":"2026-09-27T08:16:26.160Z"}},"summary":"Marine protected areas: 2025 = 17.464169 (2024 = 14.014829) % of territorial waters; 10-year trend 31.8% per decade (improving). Upstream: UNEP-WCMC via World Bank.","values":{"changePct":24.61,"pctPerDecade":31.8,"previous":14.014829,"value":17.464169,"year":2025}}],"attribution":null,"narration":{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e5a1-69fa-7853-a7f8-624002f71ff9","findingId":"01a0e1f1-3362-7534-9200-4240015937d8","at":"2026-09-28T01:29:16.026Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"95edfe4aae65f97e196b8799fa9efd499247a77f85ed1a562145674444362bf0","kind":"narrated","text":"Marine protected areas reach 17.5% of territorial waters in 2025, up from 14% the year before\n\nThe share of the world's territorial waters inside marine protected areas is reported at 17.464169% for 2025, up from 14.014829% in 2024 — a rise of 24.61%. Over the last ten years of data the series is improving at 31.8% per decade. The data comes from UNEP-WCMC via the World Bank, published through Our World in Data. A re-read of the same source months later returned the identical 2025 value, showing the number has not been revised.\n\nWhat this is not: it is not a measurement of ocean health. A protected area is a line on a map and a legal designation; this indicator says nothing about how well those waters are patrolled or whether species inside them are recovering. Global annual indicators also lag reality by one to five years, and a single world total hides geography — strong growth in a few large designations can sit alongside losses elsewhere. The confirming re-read comes from the same provider, so it tests data stability, not accuracy.\n\nWhat would change our mind: a revised back-series or an upstream method change from UNEP-WCMC, or a later year that breaks the ten-year upward trend.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Marine protected areas, 2025 (% of territorial waters): 17.464169 [owid-marine-protected-areas-2025]\n- Previous year, 2024 (% of territorial waters): 14.014829 [owid-marine-protected-areas-2025]\n- Year-on-year change (%): 24.61 [owid-marine-protected-areas-2025]\n- Ten-year trend (% per decade): 31.8 [owid-marine-protected-areas-2025]\n- Re-read value, unchanged: 17.464169 [owid-marine-protected-areas-2025-reread-2026-09-27]\n\nConfidence: medium\nCaveats:\n- Measures designated area, not enforcement or ecological outcome.\n- Annual global indicators can lag reality by 1–5 years.\n- A world aggregate hides regional gains and losses.\n- Confirmation is a re-read from the same provider, not an independent measurement.\n- Upstream method changes or a revised back-series could alter the trend.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"9e76fdcd21090d8027fb079b1fb43d94dba4b917db497d5b71d86ff68efa2d0b","transcriptSha256":"cce17e69a72440cca2f2b46466c435a95beb8bb45896346aa2daf7d5a21937fa","evidenceRefs":["owid-marine-protected-areas-2025","owid-marine-protected-areas-2025-reread-2026-09-27"]},"reviews":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e5a1-7ca8-7be9-aa03-7ccdb4fc7555","findingId":"01a0e1f1-3362-7534-9200-4240015937d8","at":"2026-09-28T01:29:20.808Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"aef4ca869bde55b1aa7af21827fe6044e098ccccec0453f519eec52120156e43","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":1,"note":"All numbers (17.464169, 14.014829, 24.61%, 31.8%/decade, reread value) match the evidence and confirmation signal exactly; Narration clearly discloses blind spots: designation vs enforcement, lag in indicators, aggregation masking regional variation, and same-provider confirmation limits; No individuals are named or identifiable; content is about a global indicator; AOI tags are 'world-indicator' and 'improvement', control flag is false, so this is not a control AOI and controlAoi check fails","verdict":"publish"}],"notifications":[],"replies":[],"retracted":null,"history":[{"at":"2026-09-27T08:16:26.160Z","kind":"created","status":"candidate","actor":"system:indicator_trend@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-27T13:40:21.136Z","kind":"confirmed","status":"confirmed","actor":"system:indicator_trend@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-28T01:29:16.026Z","kind":"narrated","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-opus-5"},{"at":"2026-09-28T01:29:20.808Z","kind":"reviewed","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"},{"at":"2026-09-28T01:29:20.829Z","kind":"status_changed","status":"published","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"}],"eventCount":5,"lastEventHash":"d8215047a8d25337eba1e13045d10f9daedd87e0261011855c741ac3441606b9"},"events":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e1f1-3362-7701-9c92-2ca44e92eed6","findingId":"01a0e1f1-3362-7534-9200-4240015937d8","at":"2026-09-27T08:16:26.160Z","actor":"system:indicator_trend@1.0","prev":null,"kind":"created","rule":{"name":"indicator_trend","version":"1.0","params":{"indicator":"marine-protected-areas"}},"title":"Marine protected areas rose to 17.5 (% of territorial waters) in 2025 — more of the ocean is protected","summary":"Marine protected areas rose to 17.5 (% of territorial waters) in 2025, from 14 in 2024 (+24.61%). Over the last ten years of data it is improving (+31.8% per decade). Source: UNEP-WCMC via World Bank, via Our World in Data. A later read showing the same value confirms the source has not revised it.","tier":1,"geometry":{"type":"Polygon","coordinates":[[[-180,-90],[180,-90],[180,90],[-180,90],[-180,-90]]]},"bbox":[-180,-90,180,90],"aoi":{"id":"wp-marine-protected","name":"World: marine protected areas","tags":["world-indicator","improvement"]},"observedAt":"2025-01-01T00:00:00Z","evidence":[{"id":"owid-marine-protected-areas-2025","kind":"series","source":"owid-grapher","collection":"marine-protected-areas","datetime":"2025-01-01T00:00:00Z","href":"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/marine-protected-areas","method":{"name":"indicator_trend","version":"1.0","params":{"indicator":"marine-protected-areas","retrievedAt":"2026-09-27T08:16:26.160Z"}},"summary":"Marine protected areas: 2025 = 17.464169 (2024 = 14.014829) % of territorial waters; 10-year trend 31.8% per decade (improving). Upstream: UNEP-WCMC via World Bank.","values":{"changePct":24.61,"pctPerDecade":31.8,"previous":14.014829,"value":17.464169,"year":2025}}],"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[{"id":"EONET_24811","title":"Tropical Storm Gonzalo","category":"Severe Storms"},{"id":"EONET_6510","title":"Iceberg D33C","category":"Sea and Lake Ice"},{"id":"EONET_24786","title":"Hurricane Nolo","category":"Severe Storms"},{"id":"EONET_24787","title":"Typhoon Surigae","category":"Severe Storms"},{"id":"EONET_24809","title":"Wildfire Merit Creek, Greene, Mississippi","category":"Wildfires"},{"id":"EONET_24785","title":"Tropical Cyclone 01B","category":"Severe Storms"},{"id":"EONET_24721","title":"Hurricane Polo","category":"Severe Storms"},{"id":"EONET_24710","title":"Wildfire Round Prarie, Morehouse, Louisiana","category":"Wildfires"},{"id":"EONET_24722","title":"Tropical Storm Fay","category":"Severe Storms"},{"id":"EONET_24720","title":"Hurricane Odalys","category":"Severe Storms"},{"id":"EONET_24810","title":"Prescribed Fire CRAWFORD CORRAL RX, Tulare, California","category":"Wildfires"},{"id":"EONET_6523","title":"Iceberg A83","category":"Sea and Lake Ice"},{"id":"EONET_10212","title":"Iceberg B22F","category":"Sea and Lake Ice"},{"id":"EONET_24719","title":"Prescribed Fire D2 Dye RX, Coconino, Arizona","category":"Wildfires"},{"id":"EONET_24718","title":"Prescribed Fire D2 Vincent RX, Coconino, Arizona","category":"Wildfires"},{"id":"EONET_24483","title":"Wildfire Breezy, Starr, Texas","category":"Wildfires"},{"id":"EONET_24488","title":"Wildfire FLORISTON, Nevada, California","category":"Wildfires"},{"id":"EONET_24317","title":"Typhoon Dujuan","category":"Severe Storms"},{"id":"EONET_24499","title":"Prescribed Fire RX CALV BU 104-108, Vernon, Louisiana","category":"Wildfires"},{"id":"EONET_24482","title":"Wildfire Clark, Edwards, Texas","category":"Wildfires"}],"notes":["Dataset: UNEP-WCMC via World Bank via Our World in Data (grapher marine-protected-areas); annual series, direction = 10-year linear trend."]},"blindSpots":["Annual global indicators lag reality by 1–5 years: a 'new' value can describe a year long past.","The direction is the 10-year trend, not the single year: one year can move against the trend, and the title then says so.","Global aggregates hide where it happens — a stable global number can mask collapse in one region and recovery in another.","Confirmation only proves the source did not revise the number on a later read — same provider, not an independent measurement.","Some series are single sites (ocean pH is Station ALOHA, Hawaii) or modelled composites (Living Planet Index) with wide uncertainty bands we do not show.","Upstream methods change between releases; a revised back-series can make a year look new or change the trend."]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e31a-b86b-7f14-8c81-19cdeed7b085","findingId":"01a0e1f1-3362-7534-9200-4240015937d8","at":"2026-09-27T13:40:21.136Z","actor":"system:indicator_trend@1.0","prev":"ce70dfd930bc63458f296ede8b5bfeab936fa8c9f67a05fe1430be3a25faf619","kind":"confirmed","signal":{"id":"owid-marine-protected-areas-2025-reread-2026-09-27","kind":"series","source":"owid-grapher","collection":"marine-protected-areas","datetime":"2025-01-01T00:00:00Z","href":"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/marine-protected-areas","method":{"name":"indicator_trend","version":"1.0","params":{"indicator":"marine-protected-areas","retrievedAt":"2026-09-27T13:40:21.136Z"}},"summary":"Re-read on 2026-09-27: 2025 value unchanged at 17.464169 — the source has not revised it. Same provider (data stability, not an independent measurement).","values":{"value":17.464169,"year":2025}},"independence":"method"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e5a1-69fa-7853-a7f8-624002f71ff9","findingId":"01a0e1f1-3362-7534-9200-4240015937d8","at":"2026-09-28T01:29:16.026Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"95edfe4aae65f97e196b8799fa9efd499247a77f85ed1a562145674444362bf0","kind":"narrated","text":"Marine protected areas reach 17.5% of territorial waters in 2025, up from 14% the year before\n\nThe share of the world's territorial waters inside marine protected areas is reported at 17.464169% for 2025, up from 14.014829% in 2024 — a rise of 24.61%. Over the last ten years of data the series is improving at 31.8% per decade. The data comes from UNEP-WCMC via the World Bank, published through Our World in Data. A re-read of the same source months later returned the identical 2025 value, showing the number has not been revised.\n\nWhat this is not: it is not a measurement of ocean health. A protected area is a line on a map and a legal designation; this indicator says nothing about how well those waters are patrolled or whether species inside them are recovering. Global annual indicators also lag reality by one to five years, and a single world total hides geography — strong growth in a few large designations can sit alongside losses elsewhere. The confirming re-read comes from the same provider, so it tests data stability, not accuracy.\n\nWhat would change our mind: a revised back-series or an upstream method change from UNEP-WCMC, or a later year that breaks the ten-year upward trend.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Marine protected areas, 2025 (% of territorial waters): 17.464169 [owid-marine-protected-areas-2025]\n- Previous year, 2024 (% of territorial waters): 14.014829 [owid-marine-protected-areas-2025]\n- Year-on-year change (%): 24.61 [owid-marine-protected-areas-2025]\n- Ten-year trend (% per decade): 31.8 [owid-marine-protected-areas-2025]\n- Re-read value, unchanged: 17.464169 [owid-marine-protected-areas-2025-reread-2026-09-27]\n\nConfidence: medium\nCaveats:\n- Measures designated area, not enforcement or ecological outcome.\n- Annual global indicators can lag reality by 1–5 years.\n- A world aggregate hides regional gains and losses.\n- Confirmation is a re-read from the same provider, not an independent measurement.\n- Upstream method changes or a revised back-series could alter the trend.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"9e76fdcd21090d8027fb079b1fb43d94dba4b917db497d5b71d86ff68efa2d0b","transcriptSha256":"cce17e69a72440cca2f2b46466c435a95beb8bb45896346aa2daf7d5a21937fa","evidenceRefs":["owid-marine-protected-areas-2025","owid-marine-protected-areas-2025-reread-2026-09-27"]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e5a1-7ca8-7be9-aa03-7ccdb4fc7555","findingId":"01a0e1f1-3362-7534-9200-4240015937d8","at":"2026-09-28T01:29:20.808Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"aef4ca869bde55b1aa7af21827fe6044e098ccccec0453f519eec52120156e43","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":1,"note":"All numbers (17.464169, 14.014829, 24.61%, 31.8%/decade, reread value) match the evidence and confirmation signal exactly; Narration clearly discloses blind spots: designation vs enforcement, lag in indicators, aggregation masking regional variation, and same-provider confirmation limits; No individuals are named or identifiable; content is about a global indicator; AOI tags are 'world-indicator' and 'improvement', control flag is false, so this is not a control AOI and controlAoi check fails","verdict":"publish"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e5a1-7cbd-7177-bb1d-154cdb6958a5","findingId":"01a0e1f1-3362-7534-9200-4240015937d8","at":"2026-09-28T01:29:20.829Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"3aa2ad69339b1867470103dce33ad086c7a10354abf48d13bd4fb93d97a84d92","kind":"status_changed","from":"confirmed","to":"published","reason":"autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)","gates":{"narratedBy":"model:claude-opus-5","reviewedBy":["model:claude-sonnet-5"],"policy":"2026-09-26-autonomous"}}],"inclusion":{"index":686,"leafHash":"fcd47bd3ba9a532a8386bf0e34f0c8f3e9b4fe461849c39df0e9c0406042e2e9","proof":["4b45d37ca733849fb02a9bfa47d728b0d2b6aa5efae96733711191db0633cc2f","5406331e274e4c453fbc472726dbdde83f7aa7e4f1f137b09383c45e3fab0047","d3c74e7a39f0850116e825e0f15b2166efd05ea6d768a51bae664b4b98aafca9","84aa041188a5988ee7151b2a6d9e5d00342b8bfc030d3fcb41a4c0a095802dc6","c48fa2ba50cdabb32516076c29670733ce7e2a0fc952437c43016bfc442f989b","7dca4cb46e918bc2462caff163cbc3833e9d56e1231ed15deafc73303f4232da","5539526203a0f9a3fe1a73a93ff155b59f2e165868d80dfa2e6993baad67874b","4dcd70c622d414afaa3e0c21c3cf5233386d63f463994a07fff4e5e92c390f72","5f7580b7f5a7f09ff7675565fb36c19876079a6c101f721419a5a07a7a23b1c1"],"size":714,"root":"23ed27dda9a2da2abe3dbd3567303dfd6d402bbc077a4783e4e79b987c5fec16"}}