TerraKeepKeeping Earth within its limits
Cloud-free satellite view around World: Red List Index, with the finding area outlined
0.00°N 0.00°ENASA Blue Marble via GIBS · outline = finding area
Published

Global Red List Index slips to 0.74 in 2025, extending a decade-long decline in species survival

World: Red List Index · seen · published

The Red List Index, which scores species survival on a scale where 1 means no species are threatened, stood at 0.74 for 2025, down from 0.75 in 2024 — a change of -1.33%. Over the last ten years of data the series is worsening at -3.5% per decade. The figures come from IUCN and BirdLife via UN SDG indicator 15.5.1, published through Our World in Data. A re-read of the same source on 27 September 2026 returned the same 0.74, so the number has not been quietly revised.

What this is not: it is not a snapshot of any one place, and it is not caused by the storms, icebergs or wildfires listed alongside it in the same period, nor by the El Niño phase. It is a slow global aggregate that can lag reality by one to five years, and a worldwide average can hide sharp declines in one region offset by recovery in another. The one-year step is small; the ten-year direction carries the weight.

What would change our mind: a revised back-series or a change in upstream assessment method, a 2026 value that reverses the direction, or regional breakdowns showing the decline is concentrated rather than broad.

Written by AI, then checked by a separate reviewer before publication. Every claim points at the evidence below.

What we saw

  • owid-grapher — Red List Index (species survival): 2025 = 0.74 (2024 = 0.75) index, 1 = none threatened; 10-year trend -3.5% per decade (worsening). Upstream: IUCN / BirdLife via UN SDG 15.5.1. (Jan 1, 2025) See the source ↗
  • owid-grapher — Re-read on 2026-09-27: 2025 value unchanged at 0.74 — the source has not revised it. Same provider (data stability, not an independent measurement). (Jan 1, 2025) See the source ↗

What it might not be

  • Confirmation is a re-read of the same provider — data stability, not an independent measurement.
  • Annual global indicators can lag conditions on the ground by 1–5 years.
  • A global average masks regional detail: steep local declines and local recoveries can cancel out.
  • The stated direction is the 10-year trend; a single year can move against it.
  • Upstream method changes or a revised back-series could shift both the value and the trend.
  • Uncertainty bands for the index are not shown here.
  • Annual global indicators lag reality by 1–5 years: a 'new' value can describe a year long past.
  • The direction is the 10-year trend, not the single year: one year can move against the trend, and the title then says so.
  • Global aggregates hide where it happens — a stable global number can mask collapse in one region and recovery in another.
  • Confirmation only proves the source did not revise the number on a later read — same provider, not an independent measurement.
  • Some series are single sites (ocean pH is Station ALOHA, Hawaii) or modelled composites (Living Planet Index) with wide uncertainty bands we do not show.
  • Upstream methods change between releases; a revised back-series can make a year look new or change the trend.

What would change our mind

Newer satellite images that show no change, a correction from the data source, or a reply with evidence from the ground. If that happens, the case is marked “Turned out wrong” — in public — and it stays on this site.

Why this was published

Two separate sources agreed — owid-grapher, then owid-grapher — and a reviewer checked the evidence before it went up.

Replies

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Ledger id 01a0e1f1-15fd-7b59-b85b-24909868428c

Technical details rule, evidence ids, history, proof
Rule
indicator_trend v1.0
Tier
T1
Tags
world-indicator, worsening
Confirmed
Yes — independent method signal, 2026-09-27
Rule FP rate
0 % · 0 of 6 decided
Location
0.00°N 0.00°E
Observed
2025-01-01
Opened
2026-09-27 by automatic rule indicator_trend v1.0
  1. candidate
  2. confirmed
  3. published
  4. resolved

Evidence2

seriesowid-grapher

Red List Index (species survival): 2025 = 0.74 (2024 = 0.75) index, 1 = none threatened; 10-year trend -3.5% per decade (worsening). Upstream: IUCN / BirdLife via UN SDG 15.5.1.

changePct -1.33pctPerDecade -3.5previous 0.75value 0.74year 2025
· indicator_trend v1.0 · owid-red-list-index-2025
Source ↗
seriesowid-grapherConfirming signal

Re-read on 2026-09-27: 2025 value unchanged at 0.74 — the source has not revised it. Same provider (data stability, not an independent measurement).

value 0.74year 2025
· indicator_trend v1.0 · owid-red-list-index-2025-reread-2026-09-27
Source ↗

Context

ENSO El Niño · ONI +1.8Severe Storms: Tropical Storm GonzaloSea and Lake Ice: Iceberg D33CSevere Storms: Hurricane NoloSevere Storms: Typhoon SurigaeWildfires: Wildfire Merit Creek, Greene, MississippiSevere Storms: Tropical Cyclone 01BSevere Storms: Hurricane PoloWildfires: Wildfire Round Prarie, Morehouse, LouisianaSevere Storms: Tropical Storm FaySevere Storms: Hurricane OdalysWildfires: Prescribed Fire CRAWFORD CORRAL RX, Tulare, CaliforniaSea and Lake Ice: Iceberg A83Sea and Lake Ice: Iceberg B22FWildfires: Prescribed Fire D2 Dye RX, Coconino, ArizonaWildfires: Prescribed Fire D2 Vincent RX, Coconino, ArizonaWildfires: Wildfire Breezy, Starr, TexasWildfires: Wildfire FLORISTON, Nevada, CaliforniaSevere Storms: Typhoon DujuanWildfires: Prescribed Fire RX CALV BU 104-108, Vernon, LouisianaWildfires: Wildfire Clark, Edwards, Texas
  • Dataset: IUCN / BirdLife via UN SDG 15.5.1 via Our World in Data (grapher red-list-index); annual series, direction = 10-year linear trend.

Publication gates

  • Evidence — 1 piece from owid-grapher — met
  • Independent confirmation — a different method (owid-grapher), 2026-09-27 — met
  • Human approval — 1 of 1 needed at tier 1 — met
  • Narration — AI-drafted by claude-opus-5 — met
Published
2026-09-28 by AI model
Narrated By
AI model
Reviewed By
AI model
Policy
2026-09-26-autonomous
Note
autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)

History5

  1. status changed → publishedAI model
  2. reviewed → confirmedAI model
  3. narrated → confirmedAI model
  4. confirmed → confirmedautomatic rule indicator_trend v1.0
  5. created → candidateautomatic rule indicator_trend v1.0

Verify

Checkpoint
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1 · 714 entries
Signed root
23ed27dda9a2…5fec16
This case
5 signed events
Leaf
#701 of 714 — this case’s latest event
Leaf hash
1e0f7d026031…47e4ff
Proof
9-hash audit path
  1. c5f2d5d7e237b8aae1940568c9928f3a156b4d988326b921f30963580cb1ce3f
  2. c19c42b462c6dfbcd76a241cfd522913b6653d99ad3eb28e07150ce30f88ff42
  3. 1f1092cee43318147cdc4bc28557ff5027bdaeee958f52d6c4a128a8eec0dd5d
  4. 713065a704b00aad76f8869f82e046e9492e3a7cd547d51a4a3bfb08b42147ab
  5. 89ea47a2db6f92bde86a283891634b3c2ce72e93ad607587cac01f8e71117f35
  6. 7dca4cb46e918bc2462caff163cbc3833e9d56e1231ed15deafc73303f4232da
  7. 5539526203a0f9a3fe1a73a93ff155b59f2e165868d80dfa2e6993baad67874b
  8. 4dcd70c622d414afaa3e0c21c3cf5233386d63f463994a07fff4e5e92c390f72
  9. 5f7580b7f5a7f09ff7675565fb36c19876079a6c101f721419a5a07a7a23b1c1
Last event
3f709e9aecee…016257
Note
Checkpoint text
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1
714
I+0n3ami2iq+Pb01ZzA9/W1AK7wHekeD5OebmHxf7BY=

— earthdeck TkCXv0OmAxDtzaj1At98wE5s0VUwWeSCBAVzEDOuLw2Ioh7cGCd8Por/k57n26y0m4mCTkkb6qIdr6CB1+b6NmG1wgc=

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