{"finding":{"findingId":"01a0e1f1-15fd-7b59-b85b-24909868428c","status":"published","tier":1,"rule":{"name":"indicator_trend","version":"1.0","params":{"indicator":"red-list-index"}},"title":"Red List Index (species survival) fell to 0.74 (index, 1 = none threatened) in 2025 — more species are sliding towards extinction","summary":"Red List Index (species survival) fell to 0.74 (index, 1 = none threatened) in 2025, from 0.75 in 2024 (-1.33%). Over the last ten years of data it is worsening (-3.5% per decade). Source: IUCN / BirdLife via UN SDG 15.5.1, via Our World in Data. A later read showing the same value confirms the source has not revised it.","geometry":{"type":"Polygon","coordinates":[[[-180,-90],[180,-90],[180,90],[-180,90],[-180,-90]]]},"bbox":[-180,-90,180,90],"aoi":{"id":"wp-red-list","name":"World: Red List Index","tags":["world-indicator","worsening"]},"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[{"id":"EONET_24811","title":"Tropical Storm Gonzalo","category":"Severe Storms"},{"id":"EONET_6510","title":"Iceberg D33C","category":"Sea and Lake Ice"},{"id":"EONET_24786","title":"Hurricane Nolo","category":"Severe Storms"},{"id":"EONET_24787","title":"Typhoon Surigae","category":"Severe Storms"},{"id":"EONET_24809","title":"Wildfire Merit Creek, Greene, Mississippi","category":"Wildfires"},{"id":"EONET_24785","title":"Tropical Cyclone 01B","category":"Severe Storms"},{"id":"EONET_24721","title":"Hurricane Polo","category":"Severe Storms"},{"id":"EONET_24710","title":"Wildfire Round Prarie, Morehouse, Louisiana","category":"Wildfires"},{"id":"EONET_24722","title":"Tropical Storm Fay","category":"Severe Storms"},{"id":"EONET_24720","title":"Hurricane Odalys","category":"Severe Storms"},{"id":"EONET_24810","title":"Prescribed Fire CRAWFORD CORRAL RX, Tulare, California","category":"Wildfires"},{"id":"EONET_6523","title":"Iceberg A83","category":"Sea and Lake Ice"},{"id":"EONET_10212","title":"Iceberg B22F","category":"Sea and Lake Ice"},{"id":"EONET_24719","title":"Prescribed Fire D2 Dye RX, Coconino, Arizona","category":"Wildfires"},{"id":"EONET_24718","title":"Prescribed Fire D2 Vincent RX, Coconino, Arizona","category":"Wildfires"},{"id":"EONET_24483","title":"Wildfire Breezy, Starr, Texas","category":"Wildfires"},{"id":"EONET_24488","title":"Wildfire FLORISTON, Nevada, California","category":"Wildfires"},{"id":"EONET_24317","title":"Typhoon Dujuan","category":"Severe Storms"},{"id":"EONET_24499","title":"Prescribed Fire RX CALV BU 104-108, Vernon, Louisiana","category":"Wildfires"},{"id":"EONET_24482","title":"Wildfire Clark, Edwards, Texas","category":"Wildfires"}],"notes":["Dataset: IUCN / BirdLife via UN SDG 15.5.1 via Our World in Data (grapher red-list-index); annual series, direction = 10-year linear trend."]},"blindSpots":["Annual global indicators lag reality by 1–5 years: a 'new' value can describe a year long past.","The direction is the 10-year trend, not the single year: one year can move against the trend, and the title then says so.","Global aggregates hide where it happens — a stable global number can mask collapse in one region and recovery in another.","Confirmation only proves the source did not revise the number on a later read — same provider, not an independent measurement.","Some series are single sites (ocean pH is Station ALOHA, Hawaii) or modelled composites (Living Planet Index) with wide uncertainty bands we do not show.","Upstream methods change between releases; a revised back-series can make a year look new or change the trend."],"observedAt":"2025-01-01T00:00:00Z","createdAt":"2026-09-27T08:16:26.160Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-28T01:31:52.331Z","createdBy":"system:indicator_trend@1.0","confirmed":{"at":"2026-09-27T13:40:21.136Z","independence":"method","signal":{"id":"owid-red-list-index-2025-reread-2026-09-27","kind":"series","source":"owid-grapher","collection":"red-list-index","datetime":"2025-01-01T00:00:00Z","href":"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/red-list-index","method":{"name":"indicator_trend","version":"1.0","params":{"indicator":"red-list-index","retrievedAt":"2026-09-27T13:40:21.136Z"}},"summary":"Re-read on 2026-09-27: 2025 value unchanged at 0.74 — the source has not revised it. Same provider (data stability, not an independent measurement).","values":{"value":0.74,"year":2025}}},"evidence":[{"id":"owid-red-list-index-2025","kind":"series","source":"owid-grapher","collection":"red-list-index","datetime":"2025-01-01T00:00:00Z","href":"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/red-list-index","method":{"name":"indicator_trend","version":"1.0","params":{"indicator":"red-list-index","retrievedAt":"2026-09-27T08:16:26.160Z"}},"summary":"Red List Index (species survival): 2025 = 0.74 (2024 = 0.75) index, 1 = none threatened; 10-year trend -3.5% per decade (worsening). Upstream: IUCN / BirdLife via UN SDG 15.5.1.","values":{"changePct":-1.33,"pctPerDecade":-3.5,"previous":0.75,"value":0.74,"year":2025}}],"attribution":null,"narration":{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e5a3-bd00-783e-8690-236a47d0e0ed","findingId":"01a0e1f1-15fd-7b59-b85b-24909868428c","at":"2026-09-28T01:31:48.352Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"12974605b8c704e09b7ab6f8f6caa3645c0d972d64d64ca821d472f5d02e43c1","kind":"narrated","text":"Global Red List Index slips to 0.74 in 2025, extending a decade-long decline in species survival\n\nThe Red List Index, which scores species survival on a scale where 1 means no species are threatened, stood at 0.74 for 2025, down from 0.75 in 2024 — a change of -1.33%. Over the last ten years of data the series is worsening at -3.5% per decade. The figures come from IUCN and BirdLife via UN SDG indicator 15.5.1, published through Our World in Data. A re-read of the same source on 27 September 2026 returned the same 0.74, so the number has not been quietly revised.\n\nWhat this is not: it is not a snapshot of any one place, and it is not caused by the storms, icebergs or wildfires listed alongside it in the same period, nor by the El Niño phase. It is a slow global aggregate that can lag reality by one to five years, and a worldwide average can hide sharp declines in one region offset by recovery in another. The one-year step is small; the ten-year direction carries the weight.\n\nWhat would change our mind: a revised back-series or a change in upstream assessment method, a 2026 value that reverses the direction, or regional breakdowns showing the decline is concentrated rather than broad.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Red List Index, 2025 (1 = none threatened): 0.74 [owid-red-list-index-2025]\n- Red List Index, 2024: 0.75 [owid-red-list-index-2025]\n- Year-on-year change (%): -1.33 [owid-red-list-index-2025]\n- 10-year trend (% per decade): -3.5 [owid-red-list-index-2025]\n- Re-read value, same year, Sept 2026: 0.74 [owid-red-list-index-2025-reread-2026-09-27]\n\nConfidence: medium\nCaveats:\n- Confirmation is a re-read of the same provider — data stability, not an independent measurement.\n- Annual global indicators can lag conditions on the ground by 1–5 years.\n- A global average masks regional detail: steep local declines and local recoveries can cancel out.\n- The stated direction is the 10-year trend; a single year can move against it.\n- Upstream method changes or a revised back-series could shift both the value and the trend.\n- Uncertainty bands for the index are not shown here.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"f950e94c359edf390733122d1e66fa95464dab829ccaf29bc4e3425568d66817","transcriptSha256":"57808f0279618f0c7619c6ec59327a79989909a7d04761fc5ea0a92749b61e6b","evidenceRefs":["owid-red-list-index-2025","owid-red-list-index-2025-reread-2026-09-27"]},"reviews":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e5a3-cc80-7b94-a946-0c925042e466","findingId":"01a0e1f1-15fd-7b59-b85b-24909868428c","at":"2026-09-28T01:31:52.320Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"f438cf58da798ca9701f49da07f8c1672925e1924168bcbe33a1f5d18be3bcb6","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":1,"note":"All numbers (0.74, 0.75, -1.33%, -3.5%/decade, re-read 0.74) match the evidence exactly; Narration appropriately flags blind spots: lag, regional masking, same-provider confirmation limits, single-year vs decade trend, method-change risk, and unshown uncertainty bands; No individuals are named; only institutional sources (IUCN, BirdLife, OWID) are cited; AOI is tagged world-indicator/worsening, not control, and the finding is a legitimate non-control indicator suitable for publication","verdict":"publish"}],"notifications":[],"replies":[],"retracted":null,"history":[{"at":"2026-09-27T08:16:26.160Z","kind":"created","status":"candidate","actor":"system:indicator_trend@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-27T13:40:21.136Z","kind":"confirmed","status":"confirmed","actor":"system:indicator_trend@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-28T01:31:48.352Z","kind":"narrated","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-opus-5"},{"at":"2026-09-28T01:31:52.320Z","kind":"reviewed","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"},{"at":"2026-09-28T01:31:52.331Z","kind":"status_changed","status":"published","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"}],"eventCount":5,"lastEventHash":"3f709e9aecee5be8e36c17f51227dbee2fcb93f44f53d8e233b41a11f8016257"},"events":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e1f1-15fd-7aaf-b85b-d0bac5684729","findingId":"01a0e1f1-15fd-7b59-b85b-24909868428c","at":"2026-09-27T08:16:26.160Z","actor":"system:indicator_trend@1.0","prev":null,"kind":"created","rule":{"name":"indicator_trend","version":"1.0","params":{"indicator":"red-list-index"}},"title":"Red List Index (species survival) fell to 0.74 (index, 1 = none threatened) in 2025 — more species are sliding towards extinction","summary":"Red List Index (species survival) fell to 0.74 (index, 1 = none threatened) in 2025, from 0.75 in 2024 (-1.33%). Over the last ten years of data it is worsening (-3.5% per decade). Source: IUCN / BirdLife via UN SDG 15.5.1, via Our World in Data. A later read showing the same value confirms the source has not revised it.","tier":1,"geometry":{"type":"Polygon","coordinates":[[[-180,-90],[180,-90],[180,90],[-180,90],[-180,-90]]]},"bbox":[-180,-90,180,90],"aoi":{"id":"wp-red-list","name":"World: Red List Index","tags":["world-indicator","worsening"]},"observedAt":"2025-01-01T00:00:00Z","evidence":[{"id":"owid-red-list-index-2025","kind":"series","source":"owid-grapher","collection":"red-list-index","datetime":"2025-01-01T00:00:00Z","href":"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/red-list-index","method":{"name":"indicator_trend","version":"1.0","params":{"indicator":"red-list-index","retrievedAt":"2026-09-27T08:16:26.160Z"}},"summary":"Red List Index (species survival): 2025 = 0.74 (2024 = 0.75) index, 1 = none threatened; 10-year trend -3.5% per decade (worsening). Upstream: IUCN / BirdLife via UN SDG 15.5.1.","values":{"changePct":-1.33,"pctPerDecade":-3.5,"previous":0.75,"value":0.74,"year":2025}}],"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[{"id":"EONET_24811","title":"Tropical Storm Gonzalo","category":"Severe Storms"},{"id":"EONET_6510","title":"Iceberg D33C","category":"Sea and Lake Ice"},{"id":"EONET_24786","title":"Hurricane Nolo","category":"Severe Storms"},{"id":"EONET_24787","title":"Typhoon Surigae","category":"Severe Storms"},{"id":"EONET_24809","title":"Wildfire Merit Creek, Greene, Mississippi","category":"Wildfires"},{"id":"EONET_24785","title":"Tropical Cyclone 01B","category":"Severe Storms"},{"id":"EONET_24721","title":"Hurricane Polo","category":"Severe Storms"},{"id":"EONET_24710","title":"Wildfire Round Prarie, Morehouse, Louisiana","category":"Wildfires"},{"id":"EONET_24722","title":"Tropical Storm Fay","category":"Severe Storms"},{"id":"EONET_24720","title":"Hurricane Odalys","category":"Severe Storms"},{"id":"EONET_24810","title":"Prescribed Fire CRAWFORD CORRAL RX, Tulare, California","category":"Wildfires"},{"id":"EONET_6523","title":"Iceberg A83","category":"Sea and Lake Ice"},{"id":"EONET_10212","title":"Iceberg B22F","category":"Sea and Lake Ice"},{"id":"EONET_24719","title":"Prescribed Fire D2 Dye RX, Coconino, Arizona","category":"Wildfires"},{"id":"EONET_24718","title":"Prescribed Fire D2 Vincent RX, Coconino, Arizona","category":"Wildfires"},{"id":"EONET_24483","title":"Wildfire Breezy, Starr, Texas","category":"Wildfires"},{"id":"EONET_24488","title":"Wildfire FLORISTON, Nevada, California","category":"Wildfires"},{"id":"EONET_24317","title":"Typhoon Dujuan","category":"Severe Storms"},{"id":"EONET_24499","title":"Prescribed Fire RX CALV BU 104-108, Vernon, Louisiana","category":"Wildfires"},{"id":"EONET_24482","title":"Wildfire Clark, Edwards, Texas","category":"Wildfires"}],"notes":["Dataset: IUCN / BirdLife via UN SDG 15.5.1 via Our World in Data (grapher red-list-index); annual series, direction = 10-year linear trend."]},"blindSpots":["Annual global indicators lag reality by 1–5 years: a 'new' value can describe a year long past.","The direction is the 10-year trend, not the single year: one year can move against the trend, and the title then says so.","Global aggregates hide where it happens — a stable global number can mask collapse in one region and recovery in another.","Confirmation only proves the source did not revise the number on a later read — same provider, not an independent measurement.","Some series are single sites (ocean pH is Station ALOHA, Hawaii) or modelled composites (Living Planet Index) with wide uncertainty bands we do not show.","Upstream methods change between releases; a revised back-series can make a year look new or change the trend."]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e31a-a03b-7670-9834-0e4d740f61b4","findingId":"01a0e1f1-15fd-7b59-b85b-24909868428c","at":"2026-09-27T13:40:21.136Z","actor":"system:indicator_trend@1.0","prev":"1ba740d408b12d167c2c79adfff2886f16b054d71756ecc5cf074ebcfe6214d0","kind":"confirmed","signal":{"id":"owid-red-list-index-2025-reread-2026-09-27","kind":"series","source":"owid-grapher","collection":"red-list-index","datetime":"2025-01-01T00:00:00Z","href":"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/red-list-index","method":{"name":"indicator_trend","version":"1.0","params":{"indicator":"red-list-index","retrievedAt":"2026-09-27T13:40:21.136Z"}},"summary":"Re-read on 2026-09-27: 2025 value unchanged at 0.74 — the source has not revised it. Same provider (data stability, not an independent measurement).","values":{"value":0.74,"year":2025}},"independence":"method"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e5a3-bd00-783e-8690-236a47d0e0ed","findingId":"01a0e1f1-15fd-7b59-b85b-24909868428c","at":"2026-09-28T01:31:48.352Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"12974605b8c704e09b7ab6f8f6caa3645c0d972d64d64ca821d472f5d02e43c1","kind":"narrated","text":"Global Red List Index slips to 0.74 in 2025, extending a decade-long decline in species survival\n\nThe Red List Index, which scores species survival on a scale where 1 means no species are threatened, stood at 0.74 for 2025, down from 0.75 in 2024 — a change of -1.33%. Over the last ten years of data the series is worsening at -3.5% per decade. The figures come from IUCN and BirdLife via UN SDG indicator 15.5.1, published through Our World in Data. A re-read of the same source on 27 September 2026 returned the same 0.74, so the number has not been quietly revised.\n\nWhat this is not: it is not a snapshot of any one place, and it is not caused by the storms, icebergs or wildfires listed alongside it in the same period, nor by the El Niño phase. It is a slow global aggregate that can lag reality by one to five years, and a worldwide average can hide sharp declines in one region offset by recovery in another. The one-year step is small; the ten-year direction carries the weight.\n\nWhat would change our mind: a revised back-series or a change in upstream assessment method, a 2026 value that reverses the direction, or regional breakdowns showing the decline is concentrated rather than broad.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Red List Index, 2025 (1 = none threatened): 0.74 [owid-red-list-index-2025]\n- Red List Index, 2024: 0.75 [owid-red-list-index-2025]\n- Year-on-year change (%): -1.33 [owid-red-list-index-2025]\n- 10-year trend (% per decade): -3.5 [owid-red-list-index-2025]\n- Re-read value, same year, Sept 2026: 0.74 [owid-red-list-index-2025-reread-2026-09-27]\n\nConfidence: medium\nCaveats:\n- Confirmation is a re-read of the same provider — data stability, not an independent measurement.\n- Annual global indicators can lag conditions on the ground by 1–5 years.\n- A global average masks regional detail: steep local declines and local recoveries can cancel out.\n- The stated direction is the 10-year trend; a single year can move against it.\n- Upstream method changes or a revised back-series could shift both the value and the trend.\n- Uncertainty bands for the index are not shown here.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"f950e94c359edf390733122d1e66fa95464dab829ccaf29bc4e3425568d66817","transcriptSha256":"57808f0279618f0c7619c6ec59327a79989909a7d04761fc5ea0a92749b61e6b","evidenceRefs":["owid-red-list-index-2025","owid-red-list-index-2025-reread-2026-09-27"]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e5a3-cc80-7b94-a946-0c925042e466","findingId":"01a0e1f1-15fd-7b59-b85b-24909868428c","at":"2026-09-28T01:31:52.320Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"f438cf58da798ca9701f49da07f8c1672925e1924168bcbe33a1f5d18be3bcb6","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":1,"note":"All numbers (0.74, 0.75, -1.33%, -3.5%/decade, re-read 0.74) match the evidence exactly; Narration appropriately flags blind spots: lag, regional masking, same-provider confirmation limits, single-year vs decade trend, method-change risk, and unshown uncertainty bands; No individuals are named; only institutional sources (IUCN, BirdLife, OWID) are cited; AOI is tagged world-indicator/worsening, not control, and the finding is a legitimate non-control indicator suitable for publication","verdict":"publish"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e5a3-cc8b-7952-abbd-0ecae913afcf","findingId":"01a0e1f1-15fd-7b59-b85b-24909868428c","at":"2026-09-28T01:31:52.331Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"d0eda143c7735b15f4266533c2f9b3039960c417026c5ebd9646b8b6f83fa091","kind":"status_changed","from":"confirmed","to":"published","reason":"autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)","gates":{"narratedBy":"model:claude-opus-5","reviewedBy":["model:claude-sonnet-5"],"policy":"2026-09-26-autonomous"}}],"inclusion":{"index":701,"leafHash":"1e0f7d0260319445a5dd61a40b1515fe12b7dadf765fc06badcf56f9c147e4ff","proof":["c5f2d5d7e237b8aae1940568c9928f3a156b4d988326b921f30963580cb1ce3f","c19c42b462c6dfbcd76a241cfd522913b6653d99ad3eb28e07150ce30f88ff42","1f1092cee43318147cdc4bc28557ff5027bdaeee958f52d6c4a128a8eec0dd5d","713065a704b00aad76f8869f82e046e9492e3a7cd547d51a4a3bfb08b42147ab","89ea47a2db6f92bde86a283891634b3c2ce72e93ad607587cac01f8e71117f35","7dca4cb46e918bc2462caff163cbc3833e9d56e1231ed15deafc73303f4232da","5539526203a0f9a3fe1a73a93ff155b59f2e165868d80dfa2e6993baad67874b","4dcd70c622d414afaa3e0c21c3cf5233386d63f463994a07fff4e5e92c390f72","5f7580b7f5a7f09ff7675565fb36c19876079a6c101f721419a5a07a7a23b1c1"],"size":714,"root":"23ed27dda9a2da2abe3dbd3567303dfd6d402bbc077a4783e4e79b987c5fec16"}}