TerraKeepKeeping Earth within its limits
Cloud-free satellite view around World: Living Planet Index, with the finding area outlined
0.00°N 0.00°ENASA Blue Marble via GIBS · outline = finding area
Published

Global wildlife population index at 27.1 for 2020, down from 27.3 — a decade of decline

World: Living Planet Index · seen · published

The Living Planet Index, which tracks the average change in monitored wildlife populations against a 1970 baseline of 100, stands at 27.134067 for 2020, down from 27.327448 in 2019 — a drop of -0.71% in one year. The ten-year trend is the stronger signal: -9.2% per decade, and worsening. The data come from the WWF / ZSL Living Planet Report via Our World in Data. A later re-read on the same source returned the identical 2020 value, confirming the figure has not been revised.

What this is not: it is not a count of animals lost, nor a map of where loss happened. The index is a modelled composite with wide uncertainty bands we do not display here, and a global average can hide collapse in one region alongside recovery in another. The 2020 reading describes a year long past — annual indicators lag reality by one to five years. The single-year dip is small and should not be read apart from the decade trend.

What would change our mind: a revised back-series or a change in upstream method, an independent measurement from another provider, or a sustained multi-year reversal in the ten-year trend.

Written by AI, then checked by a separate reviewer before publication. Every claim points at the evidence below.

What we saw

  • owid-grapher — Living Planet Index (wildlife populations): 2020 = 27.134067 (2019 = 27.327447999999997) index, 1970 = 100; 10-year trend -9.2% per decade (worsening). Upstream: WWF / ZSL Living Planet Report. (Jan 1, 2020) See the source ↗
  • owid-grapher — Re-read on 2026-09-27: 2020 value unchanged at 27.134067 — the source has not revised it. Same provider (data stability, not an independent measurement). (Jan 1, 2020) See the source ↗

What it might not be

  • The confirmation is a re-read of the same provider — it proves the number was not revised, not that it is independently correct.
  • The Living Planet Index is a modelled composite with uncertainty bands not shown here.
  • A global aggregate masks regional differences; this says nothing about any specific place.
  • The 2020 value reflects a year already several years past.
  • Upstream method changes between report releases can shift the back-series and the trend.
  • Listed storms, icebergs and fires are background context for the period, not causes of the index value.
  • Annual global indicators lag reality by 1–5 years: a 'new' value can describe a year long past.
  • The direction is the 10-year trend, not the single year: one year can move against the trend, and the title then says so.
  • Global aggregates hide where it happens — a stable global number can mask collapse in one region and recovery in another.
  • Confirmation only proves the source did not revise the number on a later read — same provider, not an independent measurement.
  • Some series are single sites (ocean pH is Station ALOHA, Hawaii) or modelled composites (Living Planet Index) with wide uncertainty bands we do not show.
  • Upstream methods change between releases; a revised back-series can make a year look new or change the trend.

What would change our mind

Newer satellite images that show no change, a correction from the data source, or a reply with evidence from the ground. If that happens, the case is marked “Turned out wrong” — in public — and it stays on this site.

Why this was published

Two separate sources agreed — owid-grapher, then owid-grapher — and a reviewer checked the evidence before it went up.

Replies

Know this place? Say what you see. Replies are checked before they appear. No account, no email.

Replies are open on the interactive site (it needs JavaScript).

Ledger id 01a0e1f1-0e95-73bc-b08a-bd20cc919b9d

Technical details rule, evidence ids, history, proof
Rule
indicator_trend v1.0
Tier
T1
Tags
world-indicator, worsening
Confirmed
Yes — independent method signal, 2026-09-27
Rule FP rate
17 % · 1 of 6 decided
Location
0.00°N 0.00°E
Observed
2020-01-01
Opened
2026-09-27 by automatic rule indicator_trend v1.0
  1. candidate
  2. confirmed
  3. published
  4. resolved

Evidence2

seriesowid-grapher

Living Planet Index (wildlife populations): 2020 = 27.134067 (2019 = 27.327447999999997) index, 1970 = 100; 10-year trend -9.2% per decade (worsening). Upstream: WWF / ZSL Living Planet Report.

changePct -0.71pctPerDecade -9.2previous 27.327447999999997value 27.134067year 2020
· indicator_trend v1.0 · owid-global-living-planet-index-2020
Source ↗
seriesowid-grapherConfirming signal

Re-read on 2026-09-27: 2020 value unchanged at 27.134067 — the source has not revised it. Same provider (data stability, not an independent measurement).

value 27.134067year 2020
· indicator_trend v1.0 · owid-global-living-planet-index-2020-reread-2026-09-27
Source ↗

Context

ENSO El Niño · ONI +1.8Severe Storms: Tropical Storm GonzaloSea and Lake Ice: Iceberg D33CSevere Storms: Hurricane NoloSevere Storms: Typhoon SurigaeWildfires: Wildfire Merit Creek, Greene, MississippiSevere Storms: Tropical Cyclone 01BSevere Storms: Hurricane PoloWildfires: Wildfire Round Prarie, Morehouse, LouisianaSevere Storms: Tropical Storm FaySevere Storms: Hurricane OdalysWildfires: Prescribed Fire CRAWFORD CORRAL RX, Tulare, CaliforniaSea and Lake Ice: Iceberg A83Sea and Lake Ice: Iceberg B22FWildfires: Prescribed Fire D2 Dye RX, Coconino, ArizonaWildfires: Prescribed Fire D2 Vincent RX, Coconino, ArizonaWildfires: Wildfire Breezy, Starr, TexasWildfires: Wildfire FLORISTON, Nevada, CaliforniaSevere Storms: Typhoon DujuanWildfires: Prescribed Fire RX CALV BU 104-108, Vernon, LouisianaWildfires: Wildfire Clark, Edwards, Texas
  • Dataset: WWF / ZSL Living Planet Report via Our World in Data (grapher global-living-planet-index); annual series, direction = 10-year linear trend.

Publication gates

  • Evidence — 1 piece from owid-grapher — met
  • Independent confirmation — a different method (owid-grapher), 2026-09-27 — met
  • Human approval — 1 of 1 needed at tier 1 — met
  • Narration — AI-drafted by claude-opus-5 — met
Published
2026-10-01 by AI model
Narrated By
AI model
Reviewed By
AI model
Policy
2026-09-26-autonomous
Note
autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)

History5

  1. status changed → publishedAI model
  2. reviewed → confirmedAI model
  3. narrated → confirmedAI model
  4. confirmed → confirmedautomatic rule indicator_trend v1.0
  5. created → candidateautomatic rule indicator_trend v1.0

Verify

Checkpoint
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1 · 1104 entries
Signed root
2d46ab865c78…d5686a
This case
5 signed events
Leaf
#1088 of 1104 — this case’s latest event
Leaf hash
c5590f59cbed…fd18cf
Proof
6-hash audit path
  1. f0994cfa336d78576877d7119d497bcdb2c04b309713a2d96a2835360cedd441
  2. c8e51a9d2ffa7e4dec846555234c6fc1dc2c22afcb74cad5a6739e6382c2ab61
  3. 3a34d5b84d8e75a2d5a5d4341b8288e3b2fc60d48db7a7359cdafb4f58860656
  4. f70b81a02441d6121c5ad48f6f4c3ddb21c1430b914c3b4ed38e548c75286ee7
  5. faf94375e7054adbd22fa0ead48c4d4d3a748de7b2b9cd5efbc8cf21e012ab03
  6. 8c9c126ddde5463be4c66b848b31cefa5e2e8b034ab906e8158680a170325566
Last event
e05b2d99d5e3…c6f622
Note
Checkpoint text
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1
1104
LUarhlx4E7iZHtDXE5BrFb7xMhoCK404KhBp2snVaGo=

— earthdeck TkCXv/sH/NTGvayZVEMmgP9cZnDpvpCaJ9kK+Cb/ptytbf1au9W9DoMBSvoBcBgV8vaL/MaVF3YesXBKf/3RqhoFSgA=

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