{"finding":{"findingId":"01a0e1f1-0e95-73bc-b08a-bd20cc919b9d","status":"published","tier":1,"rule":{"name":"indicator_trend","version":"1.0","params":{"indicator":"global-living-planet-index"}},"title":"Living Planet Index (wildlife populations) fell to 27.1 (index, 1970 = 100) in 2020 — wildlife populations keep shrinking","summary":"Living Planet Index (wildlife populations) fell to 27.1 (index, 1970 = 100) in 2020, from 27.3 in 2019 (-0.71%). Over the last ten years of data it is worsening (-9.2% per decade). Source: WWF / ZSL Living Planet Report, via Our World in Data. A later read showing the same value confirms the source has not revised it.","geometry":{"type":"Polygon","coordinates":[[[-180,-90],[180,-90],[180,90],[-180,90],[-180,-90]]]},"bbox":[-180,-90,180,90],"aoi":{"id":"wp-living-planet","name":"World: Living Planet Index","tags":["world-indicator","worsening"]},"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[{"id":"EONET_24811","title":"Tropical Storm Gonzalo","category":"Severe Storms"},{"id":"EONET_6510","title":"Iceberg D33C","category":"Sea and Lake Ice"},{"id":"EONET_24786","title":"Hurricane Nolo","category":"Severe Storms"},{"id":"EONET_24787","title":"Typhoon Surigae","category":"Severe Storms"},{"id":"EONET_24809","title":"Wildfire Merit Creek, Greene, Mississippi","category":"Wildfires"},{"id":"EONET_24785","title":"Tropical Cyclone 01B","category":"Severe Storms"},{"id":"EONET_24721","title":"Hurricane Polo","category":"Severe Storms"},{"id":"EONET_24710","title":"Wildfire Round Prarie, Morehouse, Louisiana","category":"Wildfires"},{"id":"EONET_24722","title":"Tropical Storm Fay","category":"Severe Storms"},{"id":"EONET_24720","title":"Hurricane Odalys","category":"Severe Storms"},{"id":"EONET_24810","title":"Prescribed Fire CRAWFORD CORRAL RX, Tulare, California","category":"Wildfires"},{"id":"EONET_6523","title":"Iceberg A83","category":"Sea and Lake Ice"},{"id":"EONET_10212","title":"Iceberg B22F","category":"Sea and Lake Ice"},{"id":"EONET_24719","title":"Prescribed Fire D2 Dye RX, Coconino, Arizona","category":"Wildfires"},{"id":"EONET_24718","title":"Prescribed Fire D2 Vincent RX, Coconino, Arizona","category":"Wildfires"},{"id":"EONET_24483","title":"Wildfire Breezy, Starr, Texas","category":"Wildfires"},{"id":"EONET_24488","title":"Wildfire FLORISTON, Nevada, California","category":"Wildfires"},{"id":"EONET_24317","title":"Typhoon Dujuan","category":"Severe Storms"},{"id":"EONET_24499","title":"Prescribed Fire RX CALV BU 104-108, Vernon, Louisiana","category":"Wildfires"},{"id":"EONET_24482","title":"Wildfire Clark, Edwards, Texas","category":"Wildfires"}],"notes":["Dataset: WWF / ZSL Living Planet Report via Our World in Data (grapher global-living-planet-index); annual series, direction = 10-year linear trend."]},"blindSpots":["Annual global indicators lag reality by 1–5 years: a 'new' value can describe a year long past.","The direction is the 10-year trend, not the single year: one year can move against the trend, and the title then says so.","Global aggregates hide where it happens — a stable global number can mask collapse in one region and recovery in another.","Confirmation only proves the source did not revise the number on a later read — same provider, not an independent measurement.","Some series are single sites (ocean pH is Station ALOHA, Hawaii) or modelled composites (Living Planet Index) with wide uncertainty bands we do not show.","Upstream methods change between releases; a revised back-series can make a year look new or change the trend."],"observedAt":"2020-01-01T00:00:00Z","createdAt":"2026-09-27T08:16:26.160Z","updatedAt":"2026-10-01T01:25:19.187Z","createdBy":"system:indicator_trend@1.0","confirmed":{"at":"2026-09-27T13:40:21.136Z","independence":"method","signal":{"id":"owid-global-living-planet-index-2020-reread-2026-09-27","kind":"series","source":"owid-grapher","collection":"global-living-planet-index","datetime":"2020-01-01T00:00:00Z","href":"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-living-planet-index","method":{"name":"indicator_trend","version":"1.0","params":{"indicator":"global-living-planet-index","retrievedAt":"2026-09-27T13:40:21.136Z"}},"summary":"Re-read on 2026-09-27: 2020 value unchanged at 27.134067 — the source has not revised it. Same provider (data stability, not an independent measurement).","values":{"value":27.134067,"year":2020}}},"evidence":[{"id":"owid-global-living-planet-index-2020","kind":"series","source":"owid-grapher","collection":"global-living-planet-index","datetime":"2020-01-01T00:00:00Z","href":"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-living-planet-index","method":{"name":"indicator_trend","version":"1.0","params":{"indicator":"global-living-planet-index","retrievedAt":"2026-09-27T08:16:26.160Z"}},"summary":"Living Planet Index (wildlife populations): 2020 = 27.134067 (2019 = 27.327447999999997) index, 1970 = 100; 10-year trend -9.2% per decade (worsening). Upstream: WWF / ZSL Living Planet Report.","values":{"changePct":-0.71,"pctPerDecade":-9.2,"previous":27.327447999999997,"value":27.134067,"year":2020}}],"attribution":null,"narration":{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0f510-d386-7565-841e-1d001f11f6d6","findingId":"01a0e1f1-0e95-73bc-b08a-bd20cc919b9d","at":"2026-10-01T01:25:15.782Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"a8af8c06438b7ed73a040df3be7c881c68d638f28290cfd1b9c27f8e2278990e","kind":"narrated","text":"Global wildlife population index at 27.1 for 2020, down from 27.3 — a decade of decline\n\nThe Living Planet Index, which tracks the average change in monitored wildlife populations against a 1970 baseline of 100, stands at 27.134067 for 2020, down from 27.327448 in 2019 — a drop of -0.71% in one year. The ten-year trend is the stronger signal: -9.2% per decade, and worsening. The data come from the WWF / ZSL Living Planet Report via Our World in Data. A later re-read on the same source returned the identical 2020 value, confirming the figure has not been revised.\n\nWhat this is not: it is not a count of animals lost, nor a map of where loss happened. The index is a modelled composite with wide uncertainty bands we do not display here, and a global average can hide collapse in one region alongside recovery in another. The 2020 reading describes a year long past — annual indicators lag reality by one to five years. The single-year dip is small and should not be read apart from the decade trend.\n\nWhat would change our mind: a revised back-series or a change in upstream method, an independent measurement from another provider, or a sustained multi-year reversal in the ten-year trend.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Living Planet Index, 2020 (1970 = 100): 27.134067 [owid-global-living-planet-index-2020]\n- Living Planet Index, 2019: 27.327447999999997 [owid-global-living-planet-index-2020]\n- Year-on-year change (%): -0.71 [owid-global-living-planet-index-2020]\n- Ten-year trend (% per decade): -9.2 [owid-global-living-planet-index-2020]\n- Re-read value, unchanged: 27.134067 [owid-global-living-planet-index-2020-reread-2026-09-27]\n\nConfidence: medium\nCaveats:\n- The confirmation is a re-read of the same provider — it proves the number was not revised, not that it is independently correct.\n- The Living Planet Index is a modelled composite with uncertainty bands not shown here.\n- A global aggregate masks regional differences; this says nothing about any specific place.\n- The 2020 value reflects a year already several years past.\n- Upstream method changes between report releases can shift the back-series and the trend.\n- Listed storms, icebergs and fires are background context for the period, not causes of the index value.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"630eb7b8cd30bd811a7ff96f34b39a2e273f669b28f80807c735ee0a7f76c5c8","transcriptSha256":"72b3a20ad75b263fa3b7d40222c4c8b59a0a833aa62a92f4382a28e0842f51f5","evidenceRefs":["owid-global-living-planet-index-2020","owid-global-living-planet-index-2020-reread-2026-09-27"]},"reviews":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0f510-e0b7-7be3-b831-2e8f6c30cfa4","findingId":"01a0e1f1-0e95-73bc-b08a-bd20cc919b9d","at":"2026-10-01T01:25:19.159Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"5ba2ec426a8642e721a5ffc2330fe3df977007540bbfff9cc0c82a5fe8117567","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":1,"note":"All numeric claims (27.134067, 27.327448, -0.71%, -9.2% per decade, re-read value) match the evidence and confirmation exactly.; Narration clearly states what the index is not (not a count, not a map), acknowledges lag, modelled uncertainty, regional masking, and same-provider confirmation limits — covering the key blind spots.; No individuals are named; this is an aggregate wildlife indicator.; AOI is tagged world-indicator/worsening, not control, consistent with a non-control finding appropriate for publication.; Context events (storms, icebergs, fires) are correctly framed as background, not causal.","verdict":"publish"}],"notifications":[],"replies":[],"retracted":null,"history":[{"at":"2026-09-27T08:16:26.160Z","kind":"created","status":"candidate","actor":"system:indicator_trend@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-27T13:40:21.136Z","kind":"confirmed","status":"confirmed","actor":"system:indicator_trend@1.0"},{"at":"2026-10-01T01:25:15.782Z","kind":"narrated","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-opus-5"},{"at":"2026-10-01T01:25:19.159Z","kind":"reviewed","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"},{"at":"2026-10-01T01:25:19.187Z","kind":"status_changed","status":"published","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"}],"eventCount":5,"lastEventHash":"e05b2d99d5e3a23c923a33c75bca610ca474f9055fe7c5601b264151dcc6f622"},"events":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e1f1-0e95-79e8-9777-78f3ac278da6","findingId":"01a0e1f1-0e95-73bc-b08a-bd20cc919b9d","at":"2026-09-27T08:16:26.160Z","actor":"system:indicator_trend@1.0","prev":null,"kind":"created","rule":{"name":"indicator_trend","version":"1.0","params":{"indicator":"global-living-planet-index"}},"title":"Living Planet Index (wildlife populations) fell to 27.1 (index, 1970 = 100) in 2020 — wildlife populations keep shrinking","summary":"Living Planet Index (wildlife populations) fell to 27.1 (index, 1970 = 100) in 2020, from 27.3 in 2019 (-0.71%). Over the last ten years of data it is worsening (-9.2% per decade). Source: WWF / ZSL Living Planet Report, via Our World in Data. A later read showing the same value confirms the source has not revised it.","tier":1,"geometry":{"type":"Polygon","coordinates":[[[-180,-90],[180,-90],[180,90],[-180,90],[-180,-90]]]},"bbox":[-180,-90,180,90],"aoi":{"id":"wp-living-planet","name":"World: Living Planet Index","tags":["world-indicator","worsening"]},"observedAt":"2020-01-01T00:00:00Z","evidence":[{"id":"owid-global-living-planet-index-2020","kind":"series","source":"owid-grapher","collection":"global-living-planet-index","datetime":"2020-01-01T00:00:00Z","href":"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-living-planet-index","method":{"name":"indicator_trend","version":"1.0","params":{"indicator":"global-living-planet-index","retrievedAt":"2026-09-27T08:16:26.160Z"}},"summary":"Living Planet Index (wildlife populations): 2020 = 27.134067 (2019 = 27.327447999999997) index, 1970 = 100; 10-year trend -9.2% per decade (worsening). Upstream: WWF / ZSL Living Planet Report.","values":{"changePct":-0.71,"pctPerDecade":-9.2,"previous":27.327447999999997,"value":27.134067,"year":2020}}],"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[{"id":"EONET_24811","title":"Tropical Storm Gonzalo","category":"Severe Storms"},{"id":"EONET_6510","title":"Iceberg D33C","category":"Sea and Lake Ice"},{"id":"EONET_24786","title":"Hurricane Nolo","category":"Severe Storms"},{"id":"EONET_24787","title":"Typhoon Surigae","category":"Severe Storms"},{"id":"EONET_24809","title":"Wildfire Merit Creek, Greene, Mississippi","category":"Wildfires"},{"id":"EONET_24785","title":"Tropical Cyclone 01B","category":"Severe Storms"},{"id":"EONET_24721","title":"Hurricane Polo","category":"Severe Storms"},{"id":"EONET_24710","title":"Wildfire Round Prarie, Morehouse, Louisiana","category":"Wildfires"},{"id":"EONET_24722","title":"Tropical Storm Fay","category":"Severe Storms"},{"id":"EONET_24720","title":"Hurricane Odalys","category":"Severe Storms"},{"id":"EONET_24810","title":"Prescribed Fire CRAWFORD CORRAL RX, Tulare, California","category":"Wildfires"},{"id":"EONET_6523","title":"Iceberg A83","category":"Sea and Lake Ice"},{"id":"EONET_10212","title":"Iceberg B22F","category":"Sea and Lake Ice"},{"id":"EONET_24719","title":"Prescribed Fire D2 Dye RX, Coconino, Arizona","category":"Wildfires"},{"id":"EONET_24718","title":"Prescribed Fire D2 Vincent RX, Coconino, Arizona","category":"Wildfires"},{"id":"EONET_24483","title":"Wildfire Breezy, Starr, Texas","category":"Wildfires"},{"id":"EONET_24488","title":"Wildfire FLORISTON, Nevada, California","category":"Wildfires"},{"id":"EONET_24317","title":"Typhoon Dujuan","category":"Severe Storms"},{"id":"EONET_24499","title":"Prescribed Fire RX CALV BU 104-108, Vernon, Louisiana","category":"Wildfires"},{"id":"EONET_24482","title":"Wildfire Clark, Edwards, Texas","category":"Wildfires"}],"notes":["Dataset: WWF / ZSL Living Planet Report via Our World in Data (grapher global-living-planet-index); annual series, direction = 10-year linear trend."]},"blindSpots":["Annual global indicators lag reality by 1–5 years: a 'new' value can describe a year long past.","The direction is the 10-year trend, not the single year: one year can move against the trend, and the title then says so.","Global aggregates hide where it happens — a stable global number can mask collapse in one region and recovery in another.","Confirmation only proves the source did not revise the number on a later read — same provider, not an independent measurement.","Some series are single sites (ocean pH is Station ALOHA, Hawaii) or modelled composites (Living Planet Index) with wide uncertainty bands we do not show.","Upstream methods change between releases; a revised back-series can make a year look new or change the trend."]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e31a-9a00-7f95-959b-ecb9287e7caa","findingId":"01a0e1f1-0e95-73bc-b08a-bd20cc919b9d","at":"2026-09-27T13:40:21.136Z","actor":"system:indicator_trend@1.0","prev":"d81b8ae6dab31ea13379422c8d5d2efe7a8702c276d4df040b7a91f6caae1911","kind":"confirmed","signal":{"id":"owid-global-living-planet-index-2020-reread-2026-09-27","kind":"series","source":"owid-grapher","collection":"global-living-planet-index","datetime":"2020-01-01T00:00:00Z","href":"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-living-planet-index","method":{"name":"indicator_trend","version":"1.0","params":{"indicator":"global-living-planet-index","retrievedAt":"2026-09-27T13:40:21.136Z"}},"summary":"Re-read on 2026-09-27: 2020 value unchanged at 27.134067 — the source has not revised it. Same provider (data stability, not an independent measurement).","values":{"value":27.134067,"year":2020}},"independence":"method"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0f510-d386-7565-841e-1d001f11f6d6","findingId":"01a0e1f1-0e95-73bc-b08a-bd20cc919b9d","at":"2026-10-01T01:25:15.782Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"a8af8c06438b7ed73a040df3be7c881c68d638f28290cfd1b9c27f8e2278990e","kind":"narrated","text":"Global wildlife population index at 27.1 for 2020, down from 27.3 — a decade of decline\n\nThe Living Planet Index, which tracks the average change in monitored wildlife populations against a 1970 baseline of 100, stands at 27.134067 for 2020, down from 27.327448 in 2019 — a drop of -0.71% in one year. The ten-year trend is the stronger signal: -9.2% per decade, and worsening. The data come from the WWF / ZSL Living Planet Report via Our World in Data. A later re-read on the same source returned the identical 2020 value, confirming the figure has not been revised.\n\nWhat this is not: it is not a count of animals lost, nor a map of where loss happened. The index is a modelled composite with wide uncertainty bands we do not display here, and a global average can hide collapse in one region alongside recovery in another. The 2020 reading describes a year long past — annual indicators lag reality by one to five years. The single-year dip is small and should not be read apart from the decade trend.\n\nWhat would change our mind: a revised back-series or a change in upstream method, an independent measurement from another provider, or a sustained multi-year reversal in the ten-year trend.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Living Planet Index, 2020 (1970 = 100): 27.134067 [owid-global-living-planet-index-2020]\n- Living Planet Index, 2019: 27.327447999999997 [owid-global-living-planet-index-2020]\n- Year-on-year change (%): -0.71 [owid-global-living-planet-index-2020]\n- Ten-year trend (% per decade): -9.2 [owid-global-living-planet-index-2020]\n- Re-read value, unchanged: 27.134067 [owid-global-living-planet-index-2020-reread-2026-09-27]\n\nConfidence: medium\nCaveats:\n- The confirmation is a re-read of the same provider — it proves the number was not revised, not that it is independently correct.\n- The Living Planet Index is a modelled composite with uncertainty bands not shown here.\n- A global aggregate masks regional differences; this says nothing about any specific place.\n- The 2020 value reflects a year already several years past.\n- Upstream method changes between report releases can shift the back-series and the trend.\n- Listed storms, icebergs and fires are background context for the period, not causes of the index value.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"630eb7b8cd30bd811a7ff96f34b39a2e273f669b28f80807c735ee0a7f76c5c8","transcriptSha256":"72b3a20ad75b263fa3b7d40222c4c8b59a0a833aa62a92f4382a28e0842f51f5","evidenceRefs":["owid-global-living-planet-index-2020","owid-global-living-planet-index-2020-reread-2026-09-27"]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0f510-e0b7-7be3-b831-2e8f6c30cfa4","findingId":"01a0e1f1-0e95-73bc-b08a-bd20cc919b9d","at":"2026-10-01T01:25:19.159Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"5ba2ec426a8642e721a5ffc2330fe3df977007540bbfff9cc0c82a5fe8117567","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":1,"note":"All numeric claims (27.134067, 27.327448, -0.71%, -9.2% per decade, re-read value) match the evidence and confirmation exactly.; Narration clearly states what the index is not (not a count, not a map), acknowledges lag, modelled uncertainty, regional masking, and same-provider confirmation limits — covering the key blind spots.; No individuals are named; this is an aggregate wildlife indicator.; AOI is tagged world-indicator/worsening, not control, consistent with a non-control finding appropriate for publication.; Context events (storms, icebergs, fires) are correctly framed as background, not causal.","verdict":"publish"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0f510-e0d3-7839-8a36-a353be207369","findingId":"01a0e1f1-0e95-73bc-b08a-bd20cc919b9d","at":"2026-10-01T01:25:19.187Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"e1c3d2086491d1ca13a29c9c3f87f559ac42029d7967497aa2c1fac5d8c9ec62","kind":"status_changed","from":"confirmed","to":"published","reason":"autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)","gates":{"narratedBy":"model:claude-opus-5","reviewedBy":["model:claude-sonnet-5"],"policy":"2026-09-26-autonomous"}}],"inclusion":{"index":1088,"leafHash":"c5590f59cbed2c66bb13899f9b587bd4d918b06499d6fbfcbcc0a13511fd18cf","proof":["f0994cfa336d78576877d7119d497bcdb2c04b309713a2d96a2835360cedd441","c8e51a9d2ffa7e4dec846555234c6fc1dc2c22afcb74cad5a6739e6382c2ab61","3a34d5b84d8e75a2d5a5d4341b8288e3b2fc60d48db7a7359cdafb4f58860656","f70b81a02441d6121c5ad48f6f4c3ddb21c1430b914c3b4ed38e548c75286ee7","faf94375e7054adbd22fa0ead48c4d4d3a748de7b2b9cd5efbc8cf21e012ab03","8c9c126ddde5463be4c66b848b31cefa5e2e8b034ab906e8158680a170325566"],"size":1104,"root":"2d46ab865c7813b8991ed0d713906b15bef1321a022b8d382a1069dac9d5686a"}}