TerraKeepKeeping Earth within its limits
Cloud-free satellite view around Estação Ecológica Da Terra Do Meio (BRA) — tile 2/2, with the finding area outlined
6.55°S 53.58°WNASA Blue Marble via GIBS · outline = finding area
Published

Repeat fire detections inside Terra do Meio ecological station, peaking at 109.2 MW

Estação Ecológica Da Terra Do Meio (BRA) — tile 2/2 · seen · published

Satellite heat sensors (VIIRS on NOAA-20) logged 5 detections with fire radiative power at or above 20 MW over a two-day window inside the watched boundary of Estação Ecológica da Terra do Meio, the hottest at 109.2 MW. A later pass on 28 September again returned 5 hot detections (max 25.6 MW), and by 30 September the two-day count had risen to 14 detections (max 89.3 MW). Hot-detection density inside the area runs about 1.758 times the surrounding 30 km ring (1.805 versus 1.027 per deg²).

This is a record of heat, not of clearing or of who lit it. VIIRS cannot separate wildfire from managed, agricultural or legally prescribed burning, and the season is running under a strong El Niño (ONI 1.8), which favours dry fuel and fire spread regardless of land use. The watched area is a bounding box, not the legal protected-area polygon, so some detections may fall outside the reserve.

What would change our mind: higher-resolution imagery showing burn scars outside the legal boundary, a prescribed-burn or land-management record covering these dates, or confirmation that cloud and smoke skewed the counts.

Written by AI, then checked by a separate reviewer before publication. Every claim points at the evidence below.

What we saw

  • NASA fire detections — 5 detections with FRP ≥ 20 MW in 2 d (max 109.2 MW). (Sep 26, 2026) See the source ↗
  • NASA fire detections — 5 detections with FRP ≥ 20 MW in 2 d (max 25.6 MW). (Sep 28, 2026) See the source ↗
  • NASA fire detections — 14 detections with FRP ≥ 20 MW in 2 d (max 89.3 MW). (Sep 30, 2026) See the source ↗
  • NASA fire detections — 5 hot detections again on a later pass (2026-09-28). (Sep 28, 2026)

What it might not be

  • Confirmation is a later pass from the same sensor, not a separate instrument or an EONET event.
  • Thermal detections cannot distinguish wildfire from managed, agricultural or prescribed burning.
  • The monitored area is a bounding box, not the legal protected-area polygon.
  • VIIRS misses fires under cloud or smoke and short-lived fires between the roughly twice-daily overpasses.
  • A source outage (NOAA-20 feed) would look like calm, not absence of fire.
  • No statement is made about cause or responsibility; that needs land-tenure and concession data.
  • Cannot tell wildfire from managed burning, agricultural fire or a legal prescribed burn.
  • VIIRS misses fires under cloud/smoke and small or short-lived fires between overpasses (~2/day).
  • The watched boundary is the watchlist's bbox, not the legal polygon, until protected_areas (M3) lands.
  • S-NPP products end 1 Nov 2026 — the default source is NOAA-20; a source outage looks like calm.
  • Says nothing about cause or responsibility; attribution needs land-tenure and concession layers.

What would change our mind

Newer satellite images that show no change, a correction from the data source, or a reply with evidence from the ground. If that happens, the case is marked “Turned out wrong” — in public — and it stays on this site.

Why this was published

Two separate sources agreed — NASA fire detections, then NASA fire detections — and a reviewer checked the evidence before it went up.

Replies

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Ledger id 01a0e078-f120-7ec4-8454-afbb8e99676b

Technical details rule, evidence ids, history, proof
Rule
fires_in_protected v1.0
Tier
T1
Tags
protected-area, discovered, bra, iucn-ia, ecological-station
Confirmed
Yes — independent revisit signal, 2026-09-28
Rule FP rate
0 % · 0 of 14 decided
Location
6.55°S 53.58°W
Observed
2026-09-26
Opened
2026-09-27 by automatic rule fires_in_protected v1.0
  1. candidate
  2. confirmed
  3. published
  4. resolved

Evidence4

alertfirms-viirs_noaa20_nrt

5 detections with FRP ≥ 20 MW in 2 d (max 109.2 MW).

detections 5maxFrp 109.2
· fires_in v1.0 · firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-351711-2-2026-09-26
Source ↗
alertfirms-viirs_noaa20_nrt

5 detections with FRP ≥ 20 MW in 2 d (max 25.6 MW).

detections 5maxFrp 25.6
· fires_in v1.0 · firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-351711-2-2026-09-28
Source ↗
alertfirms-viirs_noaa20_nrt

14 detections with FRP ≥ 20 MW in 2 d (max 89.3 MW).

detections 14maxFrp 89.3
· fires_in v1.0 · firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-351711-2-2026-09-30
Source ↗
alertfirms-viirs_noaa20_nrtConfirming signal

5 hot detections again on a later pass (2026-09-28).

detections 5
· fires_in v1.0 · firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-351711-2-2026-09-28-revisit

Context

1.76×
AOI vs its 30 km neighbourhood
AOI
1.805
Ring
1.027
Metric
hot detections per deg²
ENSO El Niño · ONI +1.8

Publication gates

  • Evidence — 3 pieces from firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt — met
  • Independent confirmation — a different revisit (firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt), 2026-09-28 — met
  • Human approval — 1 of 1 needed at tier 1 — met
  • Narration — AI-drafted by claude-opus-5 — met
Published
2026-10-01 by AI model
Narrated By
AI model
Reviewed By
AI model
Policy
2026-09-26-autonomous
Note
autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)

History7

  1. status changed → publishedAI model
  2. reviewed → confirmedAI model
  3. narrated → confirmedAI model
  4. evidence added → confirmedautomatic rule fires_in_protected v1.0
  5. evidence added → confirmedautomatic rule fires_in_protected v1.0
  6. confirmed → confirmedautomatic rule fires_in_protected v1.0
  7. created → candidateautomatic rule fires_in_protected v1.0

Verify

Checkpoint
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1 · 1104 entries
Signed root
2d46ab865c78…d5686a
This case
7 signed events
Leaf
#1076 of 1104 — this case’s latest event
Leaf hash
5a1694ebf2f0…e97aa1
Proof
8-hash audit path
  1. 6c3cdd22af177312548440bac4553becd1c3db22c0e0891e52a2e29387efb425
  2. 5fbec1646fee286ac62a53fa0c94236ebd2b713333fca9059494cb6531785341
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  8. 8c9c126ddde5463be4c66b848b31cefa5e2e8b034ab906e8158680a170325566
Last event
7d8b99fa6c79…f9a27b
Note
Checkpoint text
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1
1104
LUarhlx4E7iZHtDXE5BrFb7xMhoCK404KhBp2snVaGo=

— earthdeck TkCXv/sH/NTGvayZVEMmgP9cZnDpvpCaJ9kK+Cb/ptytbf1au9W9DoMBSvoBcBgV8vaL/MaVF3YesXBKf/3RqhoFSgA=

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