TerraKeepKeeping Earth within its limits
Published

Six heat sources burn night after night near Amarah, Iraq — one lit on 29 of 30 nights

Flare field near Amarah, Maysan (Iraq) — 7 registered sites · seen · published

Night-time satellite passes over the flare field near Amarah, Maysan, picked up 6 clusters of heat of at least 5 MW that were lit on 5 or more of the last 30 nights (29 August to 27 September 2026). The most persistent burned on 29 nights and peaked at 71.44 MW, out of 786 hot-night detections in all. All 6 clusters fall on sites already listed in the 2024 VIIRS Nightfire annual flare summary, the closest just 0.12 km away, with the top site credited at 0.527 billion cubic metres for that year — an independent provider signal that these are known flare locations.

What this is not: thermal sensors cannot separate a gas flare from a refinery furnace or kiln, and the brightness figure is not a measure of volume — the largest flares saturate the sensor. The VNF match is an annual aggregate from a past year, so it proves the place flares, not that it flared this week. No operator or owner is identified here; a cluster is a place. Cold, unlit venting would be invisible.

What would change our mind: a cloudy or smoky month would undercount nights, and daylight imagery, methane sounders or asset registries could reclassify the source as industrial heat rather than flaring.

Written by AI, then checked by a separate reviewer before publication. Every claim points at the evidence below.

Cloud-free satellite view around Flare field near Amarah, Maysan (Iraq) — 7 registered sites, with the finding area outlined
32.12°N 47.50°ENASA Blue Marble via GIBS · outline = finding area

What we saw

  • NASA fire detections — 6 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-29…2026-09-27); top cluster 29 nights, max 71.44 MW at 32.1177, 47.4097. (Sep 26, 2026) See the source ↗
  • Gas-flare detections (VIIRS Nightfire) — 6 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.527 BCM, 0.12 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary. (Dec 31, 2024) See the source ↗

What it might not be

  • Thermal sensors cannot distinguish a flare from a furnace, refinery or kiln; persistence plus the VNF site match is the argument.
  • FRP is not volume: the sensor saturates on the biggest flares and the value is a single-pixel estimate.
  • Cloud or heavy smoke hides nights, so persistence counts are a floor, not a ceiling.
  • The VNF confirmation is a 2024 annual aggregate — it shows a known flare site, not activity this week.
  • Only two overpasses per night (~01:30 local); short or intermittent burning between passes is missed.
  • No operator or ownership attribution; the finding locates a place, not a party.
  • Unlit venting and cold methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors.
  • Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.
  • Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.
  • FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.
  • Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.
  • No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.
  • Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.
  • The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week.
  • 'New flaring' only means no site of the VNF 2023/2024 annual summaries within 2 km: a flare too small or too cloudy for EOG's annual product, or a new furnace, also qualifies.

What would change our mind

Newer satellite images that show no change, a correction from the data source, or a reply with evidence from the ground. If that happens, the case is marked “Turned out wrong” — in public — and it stays on this site.

Why this was published

Two separate sources agreed — NASA fire detections, then Gas-flare detections (VIIRS Nightfire) — and a reviewer checked the evidence before it went up.

Right of reply

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Ledger id 01a0e071-872b-7144-8713-1c6f9c4df510

Technical details rule, evidence ids, history, proof
Rule
flaring v1.0
Tier
T2
Tags
flaring, oil-gas, discovered, irq, irq_ups_47.4101e_32.1188n
Confirmed
Yes — independent provider signal, 2026-09-27
Rule FP rate
2.4 % · 1 of 41 decided
Location
32.12°N 47.50°E
Observed
2026-09-26
Opened
2026-09-27 by automatic rule flaring v1.0
  1. candidate
  2. confirmed
  3. published
  4. resolved

Evidence2

alertfirms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt

6 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-29…2026-09-27); top cluster 29 nights, max 71.44 MW at 32.1177, 47.4097.

hotNightDetections 786maxFrp 71.44maxNights 29persistentClusters 6vnfMatched 6vnfTopBcm 0.527vnfTopKm 0.12vnfYear 2024
· flaring v1.0 · firms-flaring-flare-irq-32p1n-47p4e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27
Source ↗
recordeog-vnf-annualConfirming signal

6 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.527 BCM, 0.12 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary.

bcm 0.527vnfMatched 6
· flaring v1.0 · eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irq-32p1n-47p4e
Source ↗

Context

ENSO El Niño · ONI +1.8

Publication gates

  • Evidence — 1 piece from firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt — met
  • Independent confirmation — a different provider (eog-vnf-annual), 2026-09-27 — met
  • Human approval — 1 of 2 needed at tier 2 — not met
  • Narration — AI-drafted by claude-opus-5 — met
Published
2026-09-27 by AI model
Narrated By
AI model
Reviewed By
AI model
Policy
2026-09-26-autonomous
Note
autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)

History5

  1. status changed → publishedAI model
  2. reviewed → confirmedAI model
  3. narrated → confirmedAI model
  4. confirmed → confirmedautomatic rule flaring v1.0
  5. created → candidateautomatic rule flaring v1.0

Verify

Checkpoint
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1 · 474 entries
Signed root
3d5c0e5366ef…1a817d
This case
5 signed events
Leaf
#473 of 474 — this case’s latest event
Leaf hash
c00ab2caf91a…2c8a52
Proof
6-hash audit path
  1. ecee0d7c0ba02176a5b6ca22d5864d2711c43ddecf84b87b0365aaaae24f2ffd
  2. a2fd86a3c7d49e06b1488d6d56d98fbac98d5617bbb24a973f9910f1d486d02f
  3. f565081aeeeac1e7bf708524afa860f70d7cc95211e3d20c39f88709df60ffcc
  4. cfd8a9689a682dbadf13f73837442d7833d9a97eb16baacdedd92a148869879c
  5. 2ac34e8c0b554e5c34b3c90bfdddd542109474aaf07521b16dfe8be684c3edae
  6. 2334f041f7aa83a5ef6099e0c9511b6242e982238cdf9f30561e5bf0cb2526cc
Last event
85697c1ad390…735be9
Note
Checkpoint text
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1
474
PVwOU2bv7a9jengu9r9j3dQn4kFgYu/+tvWa/eQagX0=

— earthdeck TkCXv/cvio9EAdvkzlL+Yd2YP4DpbJfAKLucFWpg9Lx0fsSq96qdwI14h8khEO0RbAZGTNPZZvO7btaXxroLJftBzwc=

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