{"finding":{"findingId":"01a0e071-872b-7144-8713-1c6f9c4df510","status":"published","tier":2,"rule":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5,"revisitHours":18}},"title":"Persistent flaring near Amarah, Maysan (Iraq): 6 cluster(s), up to 29 nights","summary":"6 VIIRS night-time heat cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW persisted on ≥ 5 of the last 30 nights; the most persistent was lit 29 nights (max 71.44 MW). 6 sit on known VNF 2024 flare sites.","geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[47.41,32.118]},"bbox":[47.3,31.97,47.7,32.27],"aoi":{"id":"flare-irq-32p1n-47p4e","name":"Flare field near Amarah, Maysan (Iraq) — 7 registered sites","tags":["flaring","oil-gas","discovered","irq","irq_ups_47.4101e_32.1188n"]},"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[]},"blindSpots":["Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.","Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.","FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.","Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.","No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.","Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.","The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week.","'New flaring' only means no site of the VNF 2023/2024 annual summaries within 2 km: a flare too small or too cloudy for EOG's annual product, or a new furnace, also qualifies."],"observedAt":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","createdAt":"2026-09-27T01:18:29.319Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-27T01:33:21.273Z","createdBy":"system:flaring@1.0","confirmed":{"at":"2026-09-27T01:18:29.319Z","independence":"provider","signal":{"id":"eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irq-32p1n-47p4e","kind":"record","source":"eog-vnf-annual","datetime":"2024-12-31T00:00:00Z","href":"https://eogdata.mines.edu/products/vnf/global_gas_flare.html","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"vnfYear":2024}},"summary":"6 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.527 BCM, 0.12 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary.","values":{"bcm":0.527,"vnfMatched":6}}},"evidence":[{"id":"firms-flaring-flare-irq-32p1n-47p4e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[47.3,31.97,47.7,32.27],"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"limit":20,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5}},"summary":"6 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-29…2026-09-27); top cluster 29 nights, max 71.44 MW at 32.1177, 47.4097.","values":{"hotNightDetections":786,"maxFrp":71.44,"maxNights":29,"persistentClusters":6,"vnfMatched":6,"vnfTopBcm":0.527,"vnfTopKm":0.12,"vnfYear":2024}}],"attribution":null,"narration":{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e07e-bcad-73b3-90ad-3f6c465577cb","findingId":"01a0e071-872b-7144-8713-1c6f9c4df510","at":"2026-09-27T01:33:17.357Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"12cc921b872f4ba138f129066346663a6fce0a7e0fa9e7d97df8a8e1293b2a6f","kind":"narrated","text":"Six heat sources burn night after night near Amarah, Iraq — one lit on 29 of 30 nights\n\nNight-time satellite passes over the flare field near Amarah, Maysan, picked up 6 clusters of heat of at least 5 MW that were lit on 5 or more of the last 30 nights (29 August to 27 September 2026). The most persistent burned on 29 nights and peaked at 71.44 MW, out of 786 hot-night detections in all. All 6 clusters fall on sites already listed in the 2024 VIIRS Nightfire annual flare summary, the closest just 0.12 km away, with the top site credited at 0.527 billion cubic metres for that year — an independent provider signal that these are known flare locations.\n\nWhat this is not: thermal sensors cannot separate a gas flare from a refinery furnace or kiln, and the brightness figure is not a measure of volume — the largest flares saturate the sensor. The VNF match is an annual aggregate from a past year, so it proves the place flares, not that it flared this week. No operator or owner is identified here; a cluster is a place. Cold, unlit venting would be invisible.\n\nWhat would change our mind: a cloudy or smoky month would undercount nights, and daylight imagery, methane sounders or asset registries could reclassify the source as industrial heat rather than flaring.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Persistent night-time clusters: 6 [firms-flaring-flare-irq-32p1n-47p4e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Nights lit, most persistent cluster (of 30): 29 [firms-flaring-flare-irq-32p1n-47p4e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Peak fire radiative power (MW): 71.44 [firms-flaring-flare-irq-32p1n-47p4e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Hot-night detections: 786 [firms-flaring-flare-irq-32p1n-47p4e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Clusters matching VNF 2024 flare sites: 6 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irq-32p1n-47p4e]\n- Top VNF 2024 site volume (BCM): 0.527 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irq-32p1n-47p4e]\n- Distance to nearest known flare site (km): 0.12 [firms-flaring-flare-irq-32p1n-47p4e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n\nConfidence: high\nCaveats:\n- Thermal sensors cannot distinguish a flare from a furnace, refinery or kiln; persistence plus the VNF site match is the argument.\n- FRP is not volume: the sensor saturates on the biggest flares and the value is a single-pixel estimate.\n- Cloud or heavy smoke hides nights, so persistence counts are a floor, not a ceiling.\n- The VNF confirmation is a 2024 annual aggregate — it shows a known flare site, not activity this week.\n- Only two overpasses per night (~01:30 local); short or intermittent burning between passes is missed.\n- No operator or ownership attribution; the finding locates a place, not a party.\n- Unlit venting and cold methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"fc4614db0dabd19fcbf0329dcadd82295e9ca8497e9bdd220c96919a85cb855d","transcriptSha256":"30f24163ed9e71631ebbf4168fcd26053601c5e9abec8d3c8938b94dc8835eab","evidenceRefs":["firms-flaring-flare-irq-32p1n-47p4e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27","eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irq-32p1n-47p4e"]},"reviews":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e07e-cbf4-7d63-b96f-132525b666e0","findingId":"01a0e071-872b-7144-8713-1c6f9c4df510","at":"2026-09-27T01:33:21.268Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"8bae1826e6d8245e51f0f1af0fbcd289d901a873083fdbe70cf3ab69b2b95672","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":2,"note":"All numbers (6 clusters, 29 nights, 71.44 MW, 786 detections, 0.527 BCM, 0.12 km) match the evidence and confirmation fields exactly; Narration explicitly covers blind spots: sensor cannot distinguish flare from furnace/kiln, FRP not volume, cloud undercounting, VNF as past annual aggregate, no attribution, unlit venting invisible, revisit gaps; No individuals or companies named, only a place-based cluster; AOI control flag is false and tagged 'flaring'/'oil-gas', consistent with a real (non-control) finding","verdict":"publish"}],"notifications":[],"replies":[],"retracted":null,"history":[{"at":"2026-09-27T01:18:29.319Z","kind":"created","status":"candidate","actor":"system:flaring@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-27T01:18:29.319Z","kind":"confirmed","status":"confirmed","actor":"system:flaring@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-27T01:33:17.357Z","kind":"narrated","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-opus-5"},{"at":"2026-09-27T01:33:21.268Z","kind":"reviewed","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"},{"at":"2026-09-27T01:33:21.273Z","kind":"status_changed","status":"published","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"}],"eventCount":5,"lastEventHash":"85697c1ad390ec89cde3345f2abd67ce5c1b1373d19474d01810fd2243735be9"},"events":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e071-872b-7f48-aca4-9a955c0671dc","findingId":"01a0e071-872b-7144-8713-1c6f9c4df510","at":"2026-09-27T01:18:29.319Z","actor":"system:flaring@1.0","prev":null,"kind":"created","rule":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5,"revisitHours":18}},"title":"Persistent flaring near Amarah, Maysan (Iraq): 6 cluster(s), up to 29 nights","summary":"6 VIIRS night-time heat cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW persisted on ≥ 5 of the last 30 nights; the most persistent was lit 29 nights (max 71.44 MW). 6 sit on known VNF 2024 flare sites.","tier":2,"geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[47.41,32.118]},"bbox":[47.3,31.97,47.7,32.27],"aoi":{"id":"flare-irq-32p1n-47p4e","name":"Flare field near Amarah, Maysan (Iraq) — 7 registered sites","tags":["flaring","oil-gas","discovered","irq","irq_ups_47.4101e_32.1188n"]},"observedAt":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","evidence":[{"id":"firms-flaring-flare-irq-32p1n-47p4e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[47.3,31.97,47.7,32.27],"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"limit":20,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5}},"summary":"6 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-29…2026-09-27); top cluster 29 nights, max 71.44 MW at 32.1177, 47.4097.","values":{"hotNightDetections":786,"maxFrp":71.44,"maxNights":29,"persistentClusters":6,"vnfMatched":6,"vnfTopBcm":0.527,"vnfTopKm":0.12,"vnfYear":2024}}],"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[]},"blindSpots":["Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.","Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.","FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.","Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.","No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.","Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.","The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week.","'New flaring' only means no site of the VNF 2023/2024 annual summaries within 2 km: a flare too small or too cloudy for EOG's annual product, or a new furnace, also qualifies."]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e071-8730-7108-b8e1-973ef1d88efc","findingId":"01a0e071-872b-7144-8713-1c6f9c4df510","at":"2026-09-27T01:18:29.319Z","actor":"system:flaring@1.0","prev":"aff30ecd474c5388cbffeec9e488e8d17117cea77c07bf557a7acd8c128b9f37","kind":"confirmed","signal":{"id":"eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irq-32p1n-47p4e","kind":"record","source":"eog-vnf-annual","datetime":"2024-12-31T00:00:00Z","href":"https://eogdata.mines.edu/products/vnf/global_gas_flare.html","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"vnfYear":2024}},"summary":"6 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.527 BCM, 0.12 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary.","values":{"bcm":0.527,"vnfMatched":6}},"independence":"provider"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e07e-bcad-73b3-90ad-3f6c465577cb","findingId":"01a0e071-872b-7144-8713-1c6f9c4df510","at":"2026-09-27T01:33:17.357Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"12cc921b872f4ba138f129066346663a6fce0a7e0fa9e7d97df8a8e1293b2a6f","kind":"narrated","text":"Six heat sources burn night after night near Amarah, Iraq — one lit on 29 of 30 nights\n\nNight-time satellite passes over the flare field near Amarah, Maysan, picked up 6 clusters of heat of at least 5 MW that were lit on 5 or more of the last 30 nights (29 August to 27 September 2026). The most persistent burned on 29 nights and peaked at 71.44 MW, out of 786 hot-night detections in all. All 6 clusters fall on sites already listed in the 2024 VIIRS Nightfire annual flare summary, the closest just 0.12 km away, with the top site credited at 0.527 billion cubic metres for that year — an independent provider signal that these are known flare locations.\n\nWhat this is not: thermal sensors cannot separate a gas flare from a refinery furnace or kiln, and the brightness figure is not a measure of volume — the largest flares saturate the sensor. The VNF match is an annual aggregate from a past year, so it proves the place flares, not that it flared this week. No operator or owner is identified here; a cluster is a place. Cold, unlit venting would be invisible.\n\nWhat would change our mind: a cloudy or smoky month would undercount nights, and daylight imagery, methane sounders or asset registries could reclassify the source as industrial heat rather than flaring.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Persistent night-time clusters: 6 [firms-flaring-flare-irq-32p1n-47p4e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Nights lit, most persistent cluster (of 30): 29 [firms-flaring-flare-irq-32p1n-47p4e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Peak fire radiative power (MW): 71.44 [firms-flaring-flare-irq-32p1n-47p4e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Hot-night detections: 786 [firms-flaring-flare-irq-32p1n-47p4e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Clusters matching VNF 2024 flare sites: 6 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irq-32p1n-47p4e]\n- Top VNF 2024 site volume (BCM): 0.527 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irq-32p1n-47p4e]\n- Distance to nearest known flare site (km): 0.12 [firms-flaring-flare-irq-32p1n-47p4e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n\nConfidence: high\nCaveats:\n- Thermal sensors cannot distinguish a flare from a furnace, refinery or kiln; persistence plus the VNF site match is the argument.\n- FRP is not volume: the sensor saturates on the biggest flares and the value is a single-pixel estimate.\n- Cloud or heavy smoke hides nights, so persistence counts are a floor, not a ceiling.\n- The VNF confirmation is a 2024 annual aggregate — it shows a known flare site, not activity this week.\n- Only two overpasses per night (~01:30 local); short or intermittent burning between passes is missed.\n- No operator or ownership attribution; the finding locates a place, not a party.\n- Unlit venting and cold methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"fc4614db0dabd19fcbf0329dcadd82295e9ca8497e9bdd220c96919a85cb855d","transcriptSha256":"30f24163ed9e71631ebbf4168fcd26053601c5e9abec8d3c8938b94dc8835eab","evidenceRefs":["firms-flaring-flare-irq-32p1n-47p4e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27","eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irq-32p1n-47p4e"]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e07e-cbf4-7d63-b96f-132525b666e0","findingId":"01a0e071-872b-7144-8713-1c6f9c4df510","at":"2026-09-27T01:33:21.268Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"8bae1826e6d8245e51f0f1af0fbcd289d901a873083fdbe70cf3ab69b2b95672","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":2,"note":"All numbers (6 clusters, 29 nights, 71.44 MW, 786 detections, 0.527 BCM, 0.12 km) match the evidence and confirmation fields exactly; Narration explicitly covers blind spots: sensor cannot distinguish flare from furnace/kiln, FRP not volume, cloud undercounting, VNF as past annual aggregate, no attribution, unlit venting invisible, revisit gaps; No individuals or companies named, only a place-based cluster; AOI control flag is false and tagged 'flaring'/'oil-gas', consistent with a real (non-control) finding","verdict":"publish"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e07e-cbf9-75f4-b4ba-145b52ebe9b0","findingId":"01a0e071-872b-7144-8713-1c6f9c4df510","at":"2026-09-27T01:33:21.273Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"2e2167869fb39ca1ec0cff3ca78e0c8707f13bdd4f6448b131c696390c716dce","kind":"status_changed","from":"confirmed","to":"published","reason":"autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)","gates":{"narratedBy":"model:claude-opus-5","reviewedBy":["model:claude-sonnet-5"],"policy":"2026-09-26-autonomous"}}],"inclusion":{"index":473,"leafHash":"c00ab2caf91a449c9bed574bbef643fa82991d7688eba94f07c43a3c082c8a52","proof":["ecee0d7c0ba02176a5b6ca22d5864d2711c43ddecf84b87b0365aaaae24f2ffd","a2fd86a3c7d49e06b1488d6d56d98fbac98d5617bbb24a973f9910f1d486d02f","f565081aeeeac1e7bf708524afa860f70d7cc95211e3d20c39f88709df60ffcc","cfd8a9689a682dbadf13f73837442d7833d9a97eb16baacdedd92a148869879c","2ac34e8c0b554e5c34b3c90bfdddd542109474aaf07521b16dfe8be684c3edae","2334f041f7aa83a5ef6099e0c9511b6242e982238cdf9f30561e5bf0cb2526cc"],"size":474,"root":"3d5c0e5366efedaf637a782ef6bf63ddd427e2416062effeb6f59afde41a817d"}}