TerraKeepKeeping Earth within its limits
Published

Seven heat sources burned through the night near Makhmur, Iraq — one on 29 of 30 nights

Flare field near Makhmur, Nineveh (Iraq) — 33 registered sites · seen · published

Night-time satellite sensors (VIIRS on NOAA-20 and NOAA-21) picked up 7 clusters of heat near Makhmur, Nineveh, each bright enough to clear a 5 MW threshold and each lit on at least 5 of the 30 nights from 29 August to 27 September 2026. The steadiest cluster was lit on 29 of those nights and peaked at 87.27 MW. Across the window there were 762 hot-night detections. All 7 clusters fall on sites already listed in the 2024 VIIRS Nightfire annual flare summary, the closest just 0.11 km away, with a top site reported at 0.486 billion cubic metres — an independent provider signal that these are known flare locations.

What this is not: heat alone cannot distinguish a gas flare from a furnace, refinery unit or kiln, and the VNF match is an annual record from a past year — it shows the site is a known flare, not what burned this month. Nothing here identifies an operator or owner. Cold venting and unlit methane are invisible to thermal sensors. Cloud or smoke can hide nights and make a steady flare look intermittent.

Written by AI, then checked by a separate reviewer before publication. Every claim points at the evidence below.

Cloud-free satellite view around Flare field near Makhmur, Nineveh (Iraq) — 33 registered sites, with the finding area outlined
35.97°N 43.83°ENASA Blue Marble via GIBS · outline = finding area

What we saw

  • NASA fire detections — 7 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-29…2026-09-27); top cluster 29 nights, max 87.27 MW at 35.6853, 43.8756. (Sep 26, 2026) See the source ↗
  • Gas-flare detections (VIIRS Nightfire) — 7 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.486 BCM, 0.11 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary. (Dec 31, 2024) See the source ↗

What it might not be

  • Thermal signal alone cannot separate a flare from a furnace, refinery heater or kiln; persistence plus the VNF site match is the argument, not proof.
  • FRP is not volume — the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the 87.27 MW figure is a single-pixel estimate.
  • The 0.486 BCM confirmation is a 2024 annual aggregate; it establishes a known flare site, not this month's output.
  • Only two satellite passes per night (~01:30 local); short or intermittent burning between passes is missed.
  • Cloudy or smoky nights are not observed, so night counts are a floor, not a ceiling.
  • No operator or ownership attribution — a cluster is a place, not a company.
  • Unlit venting and cold methane releases would not appear at all; pairing with S5P or EMIT methane would be needed.
  • Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.
  • Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.
  • FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.
  • Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.
  • No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.
  • Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.
  • The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week.
  • 'New flaring' only means no site of the VNF 2023/2024 annual summaries within 2 km: a flare too small or too cloudy for EOG's annual product, or a new furnace, also qualifies.

What would change our mind

Newer satellite images that show no change, a correction from the data source, or a reply with evidence from the ground. If that happens, the case is marked “Turned out wrong” — in public — and it stays on this site.

Why this was published

Two separate sources agreed — NASA fire detections, then Gas-flare detections (VIIRS Nightfire) — and a reviewer checked the evidence before it went up.

Right of reply

If a case names or affects you, you can reply. A reply channel that keeps both sides on record is being set up; until then, every case page carries its ledger id so a reply can be attached to it.

Ledger id 01a0e071-770a-79d8-ae13-89923cfac575

Technical details rule, evidence ids, history, proof
Rule
flaring v1.0
Tier
T2
Tags
flaring, oil-gas, discovered, irq, irq_ups_43.8765e_35.6860n
Confirmed
Yes — independent provider signal, 2026-09-27
Rule FP rate
2.4 % · 1 of 41 decided
Location
35.97°N 43.83°E
Observed
2026-09-26
Opened
2026-09-27 by automatic rule flaring v1.0
  1. candidate
  2. confirmed
  3. published
  4. resolved

Evidence2

alertfirms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt

7 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-29…2026-09-27); top cluster 29 nights, max 87.27 MW at 35.6853, 43.8756.

hotNightDetections 762maxFrp 87.27maxNights 29persistentClusters 7vnfMatched 7vnfTopBcm 0.486vnfTopKm 0.11vnfYear 2024
· flaring v1.0 · firms-flaring-flare-irq-35p7n-43p9e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27
Source ↗
recordeog-vnf-annualConfirming signal

7 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.486 BCM, 0.11 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary.

bcm 0.486vnfMatched 7
· flaring v1.0 · eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irq-35p7n-43p9e
Source ↗

Context

ENSO El Niño · ONI +1.8

Publication gates

  • Evidence — 1 piece from firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt — met
  • Independent confirmation — a different provider (eog-vnf-annual), 2026-09-27 — met
  • Human approval — 1 of 2 needed at tier 2 — not met
  • Narration — AI-drafted by claude-opus-5 — met
Published
2026-09-27 by AI model
Narrated By
AI model
Reviewed By
AI model
Policy
2026-09-26-autonomous
Note
autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)

History5

  1. status changed → publishedAI model
  2. reviewed → confirmedAI model
  3. narrated → confirmedAI model
  4. confirmed → confirmedautomatic rule flaring v1.0
  5. created → candidateautomatic rule flaring v1.0

Verify

Checkpoint
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1 · 474 entries
Signed root
3d5c0e5366ef…1a817d
This case
5 signed events
Leaf
#467 of 474 — this case’s latest event
Leaf hash
ec3cb26e8411…dde020
Proof
8-hash audit path
  1. 7cf6f2abb6735718c36b3ce809550167d25791416808e9d865659a17dfc5a079
  2. 59a75edc6e985daee09e742a9b966359b9807ebf8a7eb6c91f5a9be94eb3f8d1
  3. da6dff3f324dbe40c51c7406bfa3db9a029a0d3109b6ee44c02ab25ac886109e
  4. 493a714a42dd17792681ec1368d8c70cc4ff7767c1aa2584aaa0f3deb8ef6917
  5. f565081aeeeac1e7bf708524afa860f70d7cc95211e3d20c39f88709df60ffcc
  6. cfd8a9689a682dbadf13f73837442d7833d9a97eb16baacdedd92a148869879c
  7. 2ac34e8c0b554e5c34b3c90bfdddd542109474aaf07521b16dfe8be684c3edae
  8. 2334f041f7aa83a5ef6099e0c9511b6242e982238cdf9f30561e5bf0cb2526cc
Last event
f771b3af75fe…f2e9ec
Note
Checkpoint text
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1
474
PVwOU2bv7a9jengu9r9j3dQn4kFgYu/+tvWa/eQagX0=

— earthdeck TkCXv/cvio9EAdvkzlL+Yd2YP4DpbJfAKLucFWpg9Lx0fsSq96qdwI14h8khEO0RbAZGTNPZZvO7btaXxroLJftBzwc=

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