{"finding":{"findingId":"01a0e071-770a-79d8-ae13-89923cfac575","status":"published","tier":2,"rule":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5,"revisitHours":18}},"title":"Persistent flaring near Makhmur, Nineveh (Iraq): 7 cluster(s), up to 29 nights","summary":"7 VIIRS night-time heat cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW persisted on ≥ 5 of the last 30 nights; the most persistent was lit 29 nights (max 87.27 MW). 7 sit on known VNF 2024 flare sites.","geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[43.876,35.685]},"bbox":[43.46,35.53,44.2,36.41],"aoi":{"id":"flare-irq-35p7n-43p9e","name":"Flare field near Makhmur, Nineveh (Iraq) — 33 registered sites","tags":["flaring","oil-gas","discovered","irq","irq_ups_43.8765e_35.6860n"]},"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[]},"blindSpots":["Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.","Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.","FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.","Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.","No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.","Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.","The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week.","'New flaring' only means no site of the VNF 2023/2024 annual summaries within 2 km: a flare too small or too cloudy for EOG's annual product, or a new furnace, also qualifies."],"observedAt":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","createdAt":"2026-09-27T01:18:29.319Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-27T01:32:28.137Z","createdBy":"system:flaring@1.0","confirmed":{"at":"2026-09-27T01:18:29.319Z","independence":"provider","signal":{"id":"eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irq-35p7n-43p9e","kind":"record","source":"eog-vnf-annual","datetime":"2024-12-31T00:00:00Z","href":"https://eogdata.mines.edu/products/vnf/global_gas_flare.html","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"vnfYear":2024}},"summary":"7 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.486 BCM, 0.11 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary.","values":{"bcm":0.486,"vnfMatched":7}}},"evidence":[{"id":"firms-flaring-flare-irq-35p7n-43p9e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[43.46,35.53,44.2,36.41],"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"limit":20,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5}},"summary":"7 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-29…2026-09-27); top cluster 29 nights, max 87.27 MW at 35.6853, 43.8756.","values":{"hotNightDetections":762,"maxFrp":87.27,"maxNights":29,"persistentClusters":7,"vnfMatched":7,"vnfTopBcm":0.486,"vnfTopKm":0.11,"vnfYear":2024}}],"attribution":null,"narration":{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e07d-eac4-7b55-b359-38437e99e93a","findingId":"01a0e071-770a-79d8-ae13-89923cfac575","at":"2026-09-27T01:32:23.620Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"668fc21c39cc37de3913047c206c0758c25a4d63728aa5ed8ad7dd2223cae969","kind":"narrated","text":"Seven heat sources burned through the night near Makhmur, Iraq — one on 29 of 30 nights\n\nNight-time satellite sensors (VIIRS on NOAA-20 and NOAA-21) picked up 7 clusters of heat near Makhmur, Nineveh, each bright enough to clear a 5 MW threshold and each lit on at least 5 of the 30 nights from 29 August to 27 September 2026. The steadiest cluster was lit on 29 of those nights and peaked at 87.27 MW. Across the window there were 762 hot-night detections. All 7 clusters fall on sites already listed in the 2024 VIIRS Nightfire annual flare summary, the closest just 0.11 km away, with a top site reported at 0.486 billion cubic metres — an independent provider signal that these are known flare locations.\n\nWhat this is not: heat alone cannot distinguish a gas flare from a furnace, refinery unit or kiln, and the VNF match is an annual record from a past year — it shows the site is a known flare, not what burned this month. Nothing here identifies an operator or owner. Cold venting and unlit methane are invisible to thermal sensors. Cloud or smoke can hide nights and make a steady flare look intermittent.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Persistent night-time clusters: 7 [firms-flaring-flare-irq-35p7n-43p9e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Nights lit, most persistent cluster (of 30): 29 [firms-flaring-flare-irq-35p7n-43p9e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Peak fire radiative power (MW): 87.27 [firms-flaring-flare-irq-35p7n-43p9e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Hot-night detections: 762 [firms-flaring-flare-irq-35p7n-43p9e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Clusters matching VNF 2024 flare sites: 7 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irq-35p7n-43p9e]\n- Distance to nearest known flare site (km): 0.11 [firms-flaring-flare-irq-35p7n-43p9e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Top VNF site reported volume (BCM, 2024): 0.486 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irq-35p7n-43p9e]\n\nConfidence: high\nCaveats:\n- Thermal signal alone cannot separate a flare from a furnace, refinery heater or kiln; persistence plus the VNF site match is the argument, not proof.\n- FRP is not volume — the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the 87.27 MW figure is a single-pixel estimate.\n- The 0.486 BCM confirmation is a 2024 annual aggregate; it establishes a known flare site, not this month's output.\n- Only two satellite passes per night (~01:30 local); short or intermittent burning between passes is missed.\n- Cloudy or smoky nights are not observed, so night counts are a floor, not a ceiling.\n- No operator or ownership attribution — a cluster is a place, not a company.\n- Unlit venting and cold methane releases would not appear at all; pairing with S5P or EMIT methane would be needed.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"037faf46873c27572a9acf8d0b613b33f5b04fe828bdd060eba0a170c8196a65","transcriptSha256":"d0070dd26a4c9a1b60d7aed9db752b5e92dff3bd5b41761e67de66a4a45f699d","evidenceRefs":["firms-flaring-flare-irq-35p7n-43p9e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27","eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irq-35p7n-43p9e"]},"reviews":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e07d-fc64-7d91-bb9b-3d5feb880346","findingId":"01a0e071-770a-79d8-ae13-89923cfac575","at":"2026-09-27T01:32:28.132Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"eacf992146bf43f1c85f76a759d83276ea3595df0549e22501271317851fc66b","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":2,"note":"All numeric claims trace directly to the evidence and confirmation blocks (7 clusters, 29 nights, 87.27 MW, 762 detections, 0.11 km, 0.486 BCM).; Narration explicitly discloses key blind spots: sensor cannot distinguish flare from furnace/kiln, VNF is an annual aggregate not real-time proof, no operator attribution, cloud/smoke undercounting, venting invisibility, and FRP-not-volume caveat.; No individuals or companies are named; only site/place-level description.; AOI tags include 'flaring' and 'oil-gas' with control:false, consistent with a real (non-control) monitoring site, appropriately reported as such.","verdict":"publish"}],"notifications":[],"replies":[],"retracted":null,"history":[{"at":"2026-09-27T01:18:29.319Z","kind":"created","status":"candidate","actor":"system:flaring@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-27T01:18:29.319Z","kind":"confirmed","status":"confirmed","actor":"system:flaring@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-27T01:32:23.620Z","kind":"narrated","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-opus-5"},{"at":"2026-09-27T01:32:28.132Z","kind":"reviewed","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"},{"at":"2026-09-27T01:32:28.137Z","kind":"status_changed","status":"published","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"}],"eventCount":5,"lastEventHash":"f771b3af75fedc75b96776c50bba0fdb71a1a8368c8918f82b522b440af2e9ec"},"events":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e071-770a-702b-b7ba-8de9ac6d8b50","findingId":"01a0e071-770a-79d8-ae13-89923cfac575","at":"2026-09-27T01:18:29.319Z","actor":"system:flaring@1.0","prev":null,"kind":"created","rule":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5,"revisitHours":18}},"title":"Persistent flaring near Makhmur, Nineveh (Iraq): 7 cluster(s), up to 29 nights","summary":"7 VIIRS night-time heat cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW persisted on ≥ 5 of the last 30 nights; the most persistent was lit 29 nights (max 87.27 MW). 7 sit on known VNF 2024 flare sites.","tier":2,"geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[43.876,35.685]},"bbox":[43.46,35.53,44.2,36.41],"aoi":{"id":"flare-irq-35p7n-43p9e","name":"Flare field near Makhmur, Nineveh (Iraq) — 33 registered sites","tags":["flaring","oil-gas","discovered","irq","irq_ups_43.8765e_35.6860n"]},"observedAt":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","evidence":[{"id":"firms-flaring-flare-irq-35p7n-43p9e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[43.46,35.53,44.2,36.41],"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"limit":20,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5}},"summary":"7 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-29…2026-09-27); top cluster 29 nights, max 87.27 MW at 35.6853, 43.8756.","values":{"hotNightDetections":762,"maxFrp":87.27,"maxNights":29,"persistentClusters":7,"vnfMatched":7,"vnfTopBcm":0.486,"vnfTopKm":0.11,"vnfYear":2024}}],"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[]},"blindSpots":["Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.","Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.","FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.","Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.","No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.","Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.","The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week.","'New flaring' only means no site of the VNF 2023/2024 annual summaries within 2 km: a flare too small or too cloudy for EOG's annual product, or a new furnace, also qualifies."]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e071-770f-72c7-89f1-b55b7ffb643c","findingId":"01a0e071-770a-79d8-ae13-89923cfac575","at":"2026-09-27T01:18:29.319Z","actor":"system:flaring@1.0","prev":"2f1244bc08b05fb4999d04d3f7dff8c79c0509978a22fdec73f796b5bfc7ddf7","kind":"confirmed","signal":{"id":"eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irq-35p7n-43p9e","kind":"record","source":"eog-vnf-annual","datetime":"2024-12-31T00:00:00Z","href":"https://eogdata.mines.edu/products/vnf/global_gas_flare.html","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"vnfYear":2024}},"summary":"7 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.486 BCM, 0.11 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary.","values":{"bcm":0.486,"vnfMatched":7}},"independence":"provider"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e07d-eac4-7b55-b359-38437e99e93a","findingId":"01a0e071-770a-79d8-ae13-89923cfac575","at":"2026-09-27T01:32:23.620Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"668fc21c39cc37de3913047c206c0758c25a4d63728aa5ed8ad7dd2223cae969","kind":"narrated","text":"Seven heat sources burned through the night near Makhmur, Iraq — one on 29 of 30 nights\n\nNight-time satellite sensors (VIIRS on NOAA-20 and NOAA-21) picked up 7 clusters of heat near Makhmur, Nineveh, each bright enough to clear a 5 MW threshold and each lit on at least 5 of the 30 nights from 29 August to 27 September 2026. The steadiest cluster was lit on 29 of those nights and peaked at 87.27 MW. Across the window there were 762 hot-night detections. All 7 clusters fall on sites already listed in the 2024 VIIRS Nightfire annual flare summary, the closest just 0.11 km away, with a top site reported at 0.486 billion cubic metres — an independent provider signal that these are known flare locations.\n\nWhat this is not: heat alone cannot distinguish a gas flare from a furnace, refinery unit or kiln, and the VNF match is an annual record from a past year — it shows the site is a known flare, not what burned this month. Nothing here identifies an operator or owner. Cold venting and unlit methane are invisible to thermal sensors. Cloud or smoke can hide nights and make a steady flare look intermittent.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Persistent night-time clusters: 7 [firms-flaring-flare-irq-35p7n-43p9e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Nights lit, most persistent cluster (of 30): 29 [firms-flaring-flare-irq-35p7n-43p9e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Peak fire radiative power (MW): 87.27 [firms-flaring-flare-irq-35p7n-43p9e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Hot-night detections: 762 [firms-flaring-flare-irq-35p7n-43p9e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Clusters matching VNF 2024 flare sites: 7 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irq-35p7n-43p9e]\n- Distance to nearest known flare site (km): 0.11 [firms-flaring-flare-irq-35p7n-43p9e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Top VNF site reported volume (BCM, 2024): 0.486 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irq-35p7n-43p9e]\n\nConfidence: high\nCaveats:\n- Thermal signal alone cannot separate a flare from a furnace, refinery heater or kiln; persistence plus the VNF site match is the argument, not proof.\n- FRP is not volume — the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the 87.27 MW figure is a single-pixel estimate.\n- The 0.486 BCM confirmation is a 2024 annual aggregate; it establishes a known flare site, not this month's output.\n- Only two satellite passes per night (~01:30 local); short or intermittent burning between passes is missed.\n- Cloudy or smoky nights are not observed, so night counts are a floor, not a ceiling.\n- No operator or ownership attribution — a cluster is a place, not a company.\n- Unlit venting and cold methane releases would not appear at all; pairing with S5P or EMIT methane would be needed.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"037faf46873c27572a9acf8d0b613b33f5b04fe828bdd060eba0a170c8196a65","transcriptSha256":"d0070dd26a4c9a1b60d7aed9db752b5e92dff3bd5b41761e67de66a4a45f699d","evidenceRefs":["firms-flaring-flare-irq-35p7n-43p9e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27","eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irq-35p7n-43p9e"]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e07d-fc64-7d91-bb9b-3d5feb880346","findingId":"01a0e071-770a-79d8-ae13-89923cfac575","at":"2026-09-27T01:32:28.132Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"eacf992146bf43f1c85f76a759d83276ea3595df0549e22501271317851fc66b","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":2,"note":"All numeric claims trace directly to the evidence and confirmation blocks (7 clusters, 29 nights, 87.27 MW, 762 detections, 0.11 km, 0.486 BCM).; Narration explicitly discloses key blind spots: sensor cannot distinguish flare from furnace/kiln, VNF is an annual aggregate not real-time proof, no operator attribution, cloud/smoke undercounting, venting invisibility, and FRP-not-volume caveat.; No individuals or companies are named; only site/place-level description.; AOI tags include 'flaring' and 'oil-gas' with control:false, consistent with a real (non-control) monitoring site, appropriately reported as such.","verdict":"publish"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e07d-fc69-7f30-b62b-5fd6f82ecb02","findingId":"01a0e071-770a-79d8-ae13-89923cfac575","at":"2026-09-27T01:32:28.137Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"f94ffc837fa238b5097f7236f2f6c853cb64b7fa5f2cb6d31029cc66e8e4de9e","kind":"status_changed","from":"confirmed","to":"published","reason":"autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)","gates":{"narratedBy":"model:claude-opus-5","reviewedBy":["model:claude-sonnet-5"],"policy":"2026-09-26-autonomous"}}],"inclusion":{"index":467,"leafHash":"ec3cb26e8411c6360c0b774121fd1e7c5333916090df94372963e33cb4dde020","proof":["7cf6f2abb6735718c36b3ce809550167d25791416808e9d865659a17dfc5a079","59a75edc6e985daee09e742a9b966359b9807ebf8a7eb6c91f5a9be94eb3f8d1","da6dff3f324dbe40c51c7406bfa3db9a029a0d3109b6ee44c02ab25ac886109e","493a714a42dd17792681ec1368d8c70cc4ff7767c1aa2584aaa0f3deb8ef6917","f565081aeeeac1e7bf708524afa860f70d7cc95211e3d20c39f88709df60ffcc","cfd8a9689a682dbadf13f73837442d7833d9a97eb16baacdedd92a148869879c","2ac34e8c0b554e5c34b3c90bfdddd542109474aaf07521b16dfe8be684c3edae","2334f041f7aa83a5ef6099e0c9511b6242e982238cdf9f30561e5bf0cb2526cc"],"size":474,"root":"3d5c0e5366efedaf637a782ef6bf63ddd427e2416062effeb6f59afde41a817d"}}