TerraKeepKeeping Earth within its limits
Published

Steady night-time flaring near Al-Basrah: 33 heat clusters, one lit 29 of 30 nights

Flare field near Al-Basrah, Basra (Iraq) — 58 registered sites · seen · published

Night-time infrared passes from the VIIRS sensors on NOAA-20 and NOAA-21 picked up 33 separate heat clusters near Al-Basrah, Basra (Iraq), each burning at 5 MW or more on at least 5 of the 30 nights between 29 August and 27 September 2026. Across the month there were 3349 hot-night detections. The most stubborn cluster was lit on 29 of those nights, with a peak single-pixel reading of 57.09 MW; the brightest detection anywhere in the field reached 136.81 MW. Independently, 19 of the clusters line up with sites listed in the Earth Observation Group's VIIRS Nightfire annual flare summary for 2024, the largest of them 0.32 km away and credited with 0.185 billion cubic metres that year.

What this is not: a thermal sensor cannot tell a gas flare from a refinery furnace or a kiln, and the brightness is not a volume — VIIRS saturates on big flares. Unlit venting and cold methane leaks are invisible here. The 2024 records prove these are known flare sites, not that any particular company or activity is involved this month.

Written by AI, then checked by a separate reviewer before publication. Every claim points at the evidence below.

Cloud-free satellite view around Flare field near Al-Basrah, Basra (Iraq) — 58 registered sites, with the finding area outlined
30.63°N 47.44°ENASA Blue Marble via GIBS · outline = finding area

What we saw

  • NASA fire detections — 33 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-29…2026-09-27); top cluster 29 nights, max 57.09 MW at 30.2109, 47.3914. (Sep 26, 2026) See the source ↗
  • Gas-flare detections (VIIRS Nightfire) — 19 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.185 BCM, 0.32 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary. (Dec 31, 2024) See the source ↗

What it might not be

  • Heat signature alone cannot separate a flare from a furnace, refinery unit or kiln; persistence plus the 2024 site match is the main argument for flaring.
  • Radiative power is not flared volume — VIIRS saturates on the largest flares, and volume figures come only from the annual VNF product.
  • Cloud or heavy smoke hides nights, so a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can mimic a flare being switched off.
  • Only two satellite passes per night (~01:30 local); short or intermittent burning between passes is missed.
  • Unlit venting and cold methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors; methane instruments would be needed.
  • The confirming record is an annual aggregate from 2024 — it shows these are known flare locations, not that they flared this week.
  • No operator or ownership attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company.
  • Evidence that would change our mind: a cloud-free run of dark nights at these coordinates, an asset registry showing a non-flare industrial source, or methane data inconsistent with combustion.
  • Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.
  • Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.
  • FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.
  • Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.
  • No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.
  • Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.
  • The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week.
  • 'New flaring' only means no site of the VNF 2023/2024 annual summaries within 2 km: a flare too small or too cloudy for EOG's annual product, or a new furnace, also qualifies.

What would change our mind

Newer satellite images that show no change, a correction from the data source, or a reply with evidence from the ground. If that happens, the case is marked “Turned out wrong” — in public — and it stays on this site.

Why this was published

Two separate sources agreed — NASA fire detections, then Gas-flare detections (VIIRS Nightfire) — and a reviewer checked the evidence before it went up.

Right of reply

If a case names or affects you, you can reply. A reply channel that keeps both sides on record is being set up; until then, every case page carries its ledger id so a reply can be attached to it.

Ledger id 01a0e071-5000-7b85-a404-9027e43d4c9b

Technical details rule, evidence ids, history, proof
Rule
flaring v1.0
Tier
T2
Tags
flaring, oil-gas, discovered, irq, irq_ups_47.2837e_31.0286n
Confirmed
Yes — independent provider signal, 2026-09-27
Rule FP rate
2.4 % · 1 of 41 decided
Location
30.63°N 47.44°E
Observed
2026-09-26
Opened
2026-09-27 by automatic rule flaring v1.0
  1. candidate
  2. confirmed
  3. published
  4. resolved

Evidence2

alertfirms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt

33 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-29…2026-09-27); top cluster 29 nights, max 57.09 MW at 30.2109, 47.3914.

hotNightDetections 3349maxFrp 136.81maxNights 29persistentClusters 33vnfMatched 19vnfTopBcm 0.185vnfTopKm 0.32vnfYear 2024
· flaring v1.0 · firms-flaring-flare-irq-31p0n-47p3e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27
Source ↗
recordeog-vnf-annualConfirming signal

19 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.185 BCM, 0.32 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary.

bcm 0.185vnfMatched 19
· flaring v1.0 · eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irq-31p0n-47p3e
Source ↗

Context

ENSO El Niño · ONI +1.8

Publication gates

  • Evidence — 1 piece from firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt — met
  • Independent confirmation — a different provider (eog-vnf-annual), 2026-09-27 — met
  • Human approval — 1 of 2 needed at tier 2 — not met
  • Narration — AI-drafted by claude-opus-5 — met
Published
2026-09-27 by AI model
Narrated By
AI model
Reviewed By
AI model
Policy
2026-09-26-autonomous
Note
autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)

History5

  1. status changed → publishedAI model
  2. reviewed → confirmedAI model
  3. narrated → confirmedAI model
  4. confirmed → confirmedautomatic rule flaring v1.0
  5. created → candidateautomatic rule flaring v1.0

Verify

Checkpoint
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1 · 474 entries
Signed root
3d5c0e5366ef…1a817d
This case
5 signed events
Leaf
#461 of 474 — this case’s latest event
Leaf hash
52c8b6e91d53…774878
Proof
8-hash audit path
  1. 744973a36d44d6a859abcf409e3252d3e43e8894548cad82f0da3c3be6f6f77a
  2. e94a56be2609ac4ec4df0d9384d5464d2fbb6cd19e7b0040c0570aaa23b62b14
  3. 49164dd59576320b567f8933824804c870f1bbc544616127293fb0f529b66f34
  4. beb17f7f5093ab61c553878001efab997ada8fa41b6946b611d715a6e2c6944d
  5. d53da2d9a52c42afa1145e989e67defee70d1ab136a8450be836068243b2b4c4
  6. cfd8a9689a682dbadf13f73837442d7833d9a97eb16baacdedd92a148869879c
  7. 2ac34e8c0b554e5c34b3c90bfdddd542109474aaf07521b16dfe8be684c3edae
  8. 2334f041f7aa83a5ef6099e0c9511b6242e982238cdf9f30561e5bf0cb2526cc
Last event
24362601b03d…1b77c4
Note
Checkpoint text
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1
474
PVwOU2bv7a9jengu9r9j3dQn4kFgYu/+tvWa/eQagX0=

— earthdeck TkCXv/cvio9EAdvkzlL+Yd2YP4DpbJfAKLucFWpg9Lx0fsSq96qdwI14h8khEO0RbAZGTNPZZvO7btaXxroLJftBzwc=

Re-derive every entry, signature and trust rule yourself:

npx -y earthdeck ledger verify --remote https://vitalearth.io