{"finding":{"findingId":"01a0e071-5000-7b85-a404-9027e43d4c9b","status":"published","tier":2,"rule":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5,"revisitHours":18}},"title":"Persistent flaring near Al-Basrah, Basra (Iraq): 33 cluster(s), up to 29 nights","summary":"33 VIIRS night-time heat cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW persisted on ≥ 5 of the last 30 nights; the most persistent was lit 29 nights (max 57.09 MW). 19 sit on known VNF 2024 flare sites.","geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[47.391,30.211]},"bbox":[46.99,30.07,47.88,31.2],"aoi":{"id":"flare-irq-31p0n-47p3e","name":"Flare field near Al-Basrah, Basra (Iraq) — 58 registered sites","tags":["flaring","oil-gas","discovered","irq","irq_ups_47.2837e_31.0286n"]},"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[]},"blindSpots":["Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.","Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.","FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.","Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.","No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.","Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.","The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week.","'New flaring' only means no site of the VNF 2023/2024 annual summaries within 2 km: a flare too small or too cloudy for EOG's annual product, or a new furnace, also qualifies."],"observedAt":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","createdAt":"2026-09-27T01:18:29.319Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-27T01:31:31.495Z","createdBy":"system:flaring@1.0","confirmed":{"at":"2026-09-27T01:18:29.319Z","independence":"provider","signal":{"id":"eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irq-31p0n-47p3e","kind":"record","source":"eog-vnf-annual","datetime":"2024-12-31T00:00:00Z","href":"https://eogdata.mines.edu/products/vnf/global_gas_flare.html","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"vnfYear":2024}},"summary":"19 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.185 BCM, 0.32 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary.","values":{"bcm":0.185,"vnfMatched":19}}},"evidence":[{"id":"firms-flaring-flare-irq-31p0n-47p3e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[46.99,30.07,47.88,31.2],"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"limit":20,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5}},"summary":"33 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-29…2026-09-27); top cluster 29 nights, max 57.09 MW at 30.2109, 47.3914.","values":{"hotNightDetections":3349,"maxFrp":136.81,"maxNights":29,"persistentClusters":33,"vnfMatched":19,"vnfTopBcm":0.185,"vnfTopKm":0.32,"vnfYear":2024}}],"attribution":null,"narration":{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e07c-fe1f-763e-a7f6-bf3b15fe40c7","findingId":"01a0e071-5000-7b85-a404-9027e43d4c9b","at":"2026-09-27T01:31:23.039Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"595f58cddc4fae7c9ff639c0878a74475d4623b5616fa2ff683505958b6563b1","kind":"narrated","text":"Steady night-time flaring near Al-Basrah: 33 heat clusters, one lit 29 of 30 nights\n\nNight-time infrared passes from the VIIRS sensors on NOAA-20 and NOAA-21 picked up 33 separate heat clusters near Al-Basrah, Basra (Iraq), each burning at 5 MW or more on at least 5 of the 30 nights between 29 August and 27 September 2026. Across the month there were 3349 hot-night detections. The most stubborn cluster was lit on 29 of those nights, with a peak single-pixel reading of 57.09 MW; the brightest detection anywhere in the field reached 136.81 MW. Independently, 19 of the clusters line up with sites listed in the Earth Observation Group's VIIRS Nightfire annual flare summary for 2024, the largest of them 0.32 km away and credited with 0.185 billion cubic metres that year.\n\nWhat this is not: a thermal sensor cannot tell a gas flare from a refinery furnace or a kiln, and the brightness is not a volume — VIIRS saturates on big flares. Unlit venting and cold methane leaks are invisible here. The 2024 records prove these are known flare sites, not that any particular company or activity is involved this month.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Persistent night-time heat clusters: 33 [firms-flaring-flare-irq-31p0n-47p3e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Nights lit, most persistent cluster (of 30): 29 [firms-flaring-flare-irq-31p0n-47p3e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Peak FRP of top cluster (MW): 57.09 [firms-flaring-flare-irq-31p0n-47p3e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Highest FRP detection in field (MW): 136.81 [firms-flaring-flare-irq-31p0n-47p3e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Hot-night detections in 30 days: 3349 [firms-flaring-flare-irq-31p0n-47p3e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Clusters matching known 2024 flare sites: 19 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irq-31p0n-47p3e]\n- Top matched site, 2024 flared volume (BCM): 0.185 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irq-31p0n-47p3e]\n\nConfidence: high\nCaveats:\n- Heat signature alone cannot separate a flare from a furnace, refinery unit or kiln; persistence plus the 2024 site match is the main argument for flaring.\n- Radiative power is not flared volume — VIIRS saturates on the largest flares, and volume figures come only from the annual VNF product.\n- Cloud or heavy smoke hides nights, so a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can mimic a flare being switched off.\n- Only two satellite passes per night (~01:30 local); short or intermittent burning between passes is missed.\n- Unlit venting and cold methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors; methane instruments would be needed.\n- The confirming record is an annual aggregate from 2024 — it shows these are known flare locations, not that they flared this week.\n- No operator or ownership attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company.\n- Evidence that would change our mind: a cloud-free run of dark nights at these coordinates, an asset registry showing a non-flare industrial source, or methane data inconsistent with combustion.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"1e50f28ec88f09fd180e5b02d6ac3f47c980094139607c893f33268d893f44c4","transcriptSha256":"73ef130e826506f176d300e80c21987462426222827124f033253f591630ca93","evidenceRefs":["firms-flaring-flare-irq-31p0n-47p3e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27","eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irq-31p0n-47p3e"]},"reviews":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e07d-1f21-7ca3-8617-beb106969a24","findingId":"01a0e071-5000-7b85-a404-9027e43d4c9b","at":"2026-09-27T01:31:31.489Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"b0cd920ca7d7e55ed239d72aaa1b24e7306ad12121588a72304de2b23677e360","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":2,"note":"All numeric claims (33 clusters, 29 nights, 57.09 MW, 136.81 MW, 3349 detections, 19 VNF matches, 0.185 BCM) match the evidence and confirmation signal exactly.; Narration transparently states what the sensor cannot resolve: flare vs. industrial heat source, FRP vs. volume, cloud undercounting, pass-rate gaps, invisible venting, no operator attribution, and that VNF match is a past-year aggregate.; No individual persons are named or identifiable; only a facility/field is described.; AOI tags do not include 'control' and control:false, consistent with a real (non-control) site.","verdict":"publish"}],"notifications":[],"replies":[],"retracted":null,"history":[{"at":"2026-09-27T01:18:29.319Z","kind":"created","status":"candidate","actor":"system:flaring@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-27T01:18:29.319Z","kind":"confirmed","status":"confirmed","actor":"system:flaring@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-27T01:31:23.039Z","kind":"narrated","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-opus-5"},{"at":"2026-09-27T01:31:31.489Z","kind":"reviewed","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"},{"at":"2026-09-27T01:31:31.495Z","kind":"status_changed","status":"published","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"}],"eventCount":5,"lastEventHash":"24362601b03de6fc0a27140da56ec1d96cf2409f5a31d411e29df606d01b77c4"},"events":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e071-5000-7c20-adfc-3a8c79cd2ffc","findingId":"01a0e071-5000-7b85-a404-9027e43d4c9b","at":"2026-09-27T01:18:29.319Z","actor":"system:flaring@1.0","prev":null,"kind":"created","rule":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5,"revisitHours":18}},"title":"Persistent flaring near Al-Basrah, Basra (Iraq): 33 cluster(s), up to 29 nights","summary":"33 VIIRS night-time heat cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW persisted on ≥ 5 of the last 30 nights; the most persistent was lit 29 nights (max 57.09 MW). 19 sit on known VNF 2024 flare sites.","tier":2,"geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[47.391,30.211]},"bbox":[46.99,30.07,47.88,31.2],"aoi":{"id":"flare-irq-31p0n-47p3e","name":"Flare field near Al-Basrah, Basra (Iraq) — 58 registered sites","tags":["flaring","oil-gas","discovered","irq","irq_ups_47.2837e_31.0286n"]},"observedAt":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","evidence":[{"id":"firms-flaring-flare-irq-31p0n-47p3e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[46.99,30.07,47.88,31.2],"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"limit":20,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5}},"summary":"33 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-29…2026-09-27); top cluster 29 nights, max 57.09 MW at 30.2109, 47.3914.","values":{"hotNightDetections":3349,"maxFrp":136.81,"maxNights":29,"persistentClusters":33,"vnfMatched":19,"vnfTopBcm":0.185,"vnfTopKm":0.32,"vnfYear":2024}}],"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[]},"blindSpots":["Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.","Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.","FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.","Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.","No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.","Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.","The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week.","'New flaring' only means no site of the VNF 2023/2024 annual summaries within 2 km: a flare too small or too cloudy for EOG's annual product, or a new furnace, also qualifies."]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e071-5021-7473-88f4-83ed6bf2e999","findingId":"01a0e071-5000-7b85-a404-9027e43d4c9b","at":"2026-09-27T01:18:29.319Z","actor":"system:flaring@1.0","prev":"08a6fb4ca997e3da6f83e0851f556b059ebd2bf78a59c4ce8bcc160945398dd8","kind":"confirmed","signal":{"id":"eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irq-31p0n-47p3e","kind":"record","source":"eog-vnf-annual","datetime":"2024-12-31T00:00:00Z","href":"https://eogdata.mines.edu/products/vnf/global_gas_flare.html","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"vnfYear":2024}},"summary":"19 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.185 BCM, 0.32 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary.","values":{"bcm":0.185,"vnfMatched":19}},"independence":"provider"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e07c-fe1f-763e-a7f6-bf3b15fe40c7","findingId":"01a0e071-5000-7b85-a404-9027e43d4c9b","at":"2026-09-27T01:31:23.039Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"595f58cddc4fae7c9ff639c0878a74475d4623b5616fa2ff683505958b6563b1","kind":"narrated","text":"Steady night-time flaring near Al-Basrah: 33 heat clusters, one lit 29 of 30 nights\n\nNight-time infrared passes from the VIIRS sensors on NOAA-20 and NOAA-21 picked up 33 separate heat clusters near Al-Basrah, Basra (Iraq), each burning at 5 MW or more on at least 5 of the 30 nights between 29 August and 27 September 2026. Across the month there were 3349 hot-night detections. The most stubborn cluster was lit on 29 of those nights, with a peak single-pixel reading of 57.09 MW; the brightest detection anywhere in the field reached 136.81 MW. Independently, 19 of the clusters line up with sites listed in the Earth Observation Group's VIIRS Nightfire annual flare summary for 2024, the largest of them 0.32 km away and credited with 0.185 billion cubic metres that year.\n\nWhat this is not: a thermal sensor cannot tell a gas flare from a refinery furnace or a kiln, and the brightness is not a volume — VIIRS saturates on big flares. Unlit venting and cold methane leaks are invisible here. The 2024 records prove these are known flare sites, not that any particular company or activity is involved this month.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Persistent night-time heat clusters: 33 [firms-flaring-flare-irq-31p0n-47p3e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Nights lit, most persistent cluster (of 30): 29 [firms-flaring-flare-irq-31p0n-47p3e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Peak FRP of top cluster (MW): 57.09 [firms-flaring-flare-irq-31p0n-47p3e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Highest FRP detection in field (MW): 136.81 [firms-flaring-flare-irq-31p0n-47p3e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Hot-night detections in 30 days: 3349 [firms-flaring-flare-irq-31p0n-47p3e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Clusters matching known 2024 flare sites: 19 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irq-31p0n-47p3e]\n- Top matched site, 2024 flared volume (BCM): 0.185 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irq-31p0n-47p3e]\n\nConfidence: high\nCaveats:\n- Heat signature alone cannot separate a flare from a furnace, refinery unit or kiln; persistence plus the 2024 site match is the main argument for flaring.\n- Radiative power is not flared volume — VIIRS saturates on the largest flares, and volume figures come only from the annual VNF product.\n- Cloud or heavy smoke hides nights, so a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can mimic a flare being switched off.\n- Only two satellite passes per night (~01:30 local); short or intermittent burning between passes is missed.\n- Unlit venting and cold methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors; methane instruments would be needed.\n- The confirming record is an annual aggregate from 2024 — it shows these are known flare locations, not that they flared this week.\n- No operator or ownership attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company.\n- Evidence that would change our mind: a cloud-free run of dark nights at these coordinates, an asset registry showing a non-flare industrial source, or methane data inconsistent with combustion.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"1e50f28ec88f09fd180e5b02d6ac3f47c980094139607c893f33268d893f44c4","transcriptSha256":"73ef130e826506f176d300e80c21987462426222827124f033253f591630ca93","evidenceRefs":["firms-flaring-flare-irq-31p0n-47p3e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27","eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irq-31p0n-47p3e"]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e07d-1f21-7ca3-8617-beb106969a24","findingId":"01a0e071-5000-7b85-a404-9027e43d4c9b","at":"2026-09-27T01:31:31.489Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"b0cd920ca7d7e55ed239d72aaa1b24e7306ad12121588a72304de2b23677e360","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":2,"note":"All numeric claims (33 clusters, 29 nights, 57.09 MW, 136.81 MW, 3349 detections, 19 VNF matches, 0.185 BCM) match the evidence and confirmation signal exactly.; Narration transparently states what the sensor cannot resolve: flare vs. industrial heat source, FRP vs. volume, cloud undercounting, pass-rate gaps, invisible venting, no operator attribution, and that VNF match is a past-year aggregate.; No individual persons are named or identifiable; only a facility/field is described.; AOI tags do not include 'control' and control:false, consistent with a real (non-control) site.","verdict":"publish"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e07d-1f27-78cf-925b-18b1a337b083","findingId":"01a0e071-5000-7b85-a404-9027e43d4c9b","at":"2026-09-27T01:31:31.495Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"f6612053f2fa8a8ab3c42b97ae9b10f6a847908bc7f47e32092355851c4ff9a1","kind":"status_changed","from":"confirmed","to":"published","reason":"autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)","gates":{"narratedBy":"model:claude-opus-5","reviewedBy":["model:claude-sonnet-5"],"policy":"2026-09-26-autonomous"}}],"inclusion":{"index":461,"leafHash":"52c8b6e91d539db01857491eee36a8b9b336c947273c2ec2498c5ca42b774878","proof":["744973a36d44d6a859abcf409e3252d3e43e8894548cad82f0da3c3be6f6f77a","e94a56be2609ac4ec4df0d9384d5464d2fbb6cd19e7b0040c0570aaa23b62b14","49164dd59576320b567f8933824804c870f1bbc544616127293fb0f529b66f34","beb17f7f5093ab61c553878001efab997ada8fa41b6946b611d715a6e2c6944d","d53da2d9a52c42afa1145e989e67defee70d1ab136a8450be836068243b2b4c4","cfd8a9689a682dbadf13f73837442d7833d9a97eb16baacdedd92a148869879c","2ac34e8c0b554e5c34b3c90bfdddd542109474aaf07521b16dfe8be684c3edae","2334f041f7aa83a5ef6099e0c9511b6242e982238cdf9f30561e5bf0cb2526cc"],"size":474,"root":"3d5c0e5366efedaf637a782ef6bf63ddd427e2416062effeb6f59afde41a817d"}}