TerraKeepKeeping Earth within its limits
Published

Steady night-time heat at a known flare field near Nefteyugansky: 2 clusters, one lit 18 of 30 nights

Flare field near Nefteyugansky, Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug – Ugra (Russia) — 21 registered sites · seen · published

VIIRS night-time thermal detections over the flare field near Nefteyugansky, Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug – Ugra (Russia), show 2 clusters burning hot enough (at least 5 MW) on at least 5 of the 30 nights from 29 August to 27 September 2026. The most persistent was lit on 18 nights, with a peak of 11.34 MW at that cluster and a maximum of 15.1 MW across 80 hot-night detections. Both clusters fall on sites already listed in the 2024 VNF annual flare summary — the nearest just 0.08 km away, credited with 0.16 BCM — an independent, provider-separate confirmation that these are known flare locations.

What this is not: heat alone cannot separate a gas flare from a furnace, refinery or kiln, and the fire power reading is not a volume. The VNF match is an annual aggregate from a past year, so it proves the site is a known flare, not this month's activity. Cloudy or smoky nights hide detections, so persistence counts are a floor. Unlit venting stays invisible.

What would change our mind: sustained gaps once skies are clear, methane readings from S5P or EMIT, or asset records showing a non-flare heat source.

Written by AI, then checked by a separate reviewer before publication. Every claim points at the evidence below.

Cloud-free satellite view around Flare field near Nefteyugansky, Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug – Ugra (Russia) — 21 registered sites, with the finding area outlined
60.69°N 72.60°ENASA Blue Marble via GIBS · outline = finding area

What we saw

  • NASA fire detections — 2 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-29…2026-09-27); top cluster 18 nights, max 11.34 MW at 60.717, 72.5167. (Sep 26, 2026) See the source ↗
  • Gas-flare detections (VIIRS Nightfire) — 2 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.16 BCM, 0.08 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary. (Dec 31, 2024) See the source ↗

What it might not be

  • Thermal data cannot distinguish a flare from a furnace, refinery or kiln; persistence plus the VNF site match is the argument.
  • Fire power is not flared volume; the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and readings are single-pixel estimates.
  • Cloud and smoke hide nights, so night counts are a minimum and a quiet stretch may not mean a flare stopped.
  • Only two satellite passes per night (~01:30 local); short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed.
  • The VNF confirmation is a 2024 annual aggregate — it establishes a known flare site, not this month's burning.
  • Unlit venting and cold methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors.
  • No operator or ownership attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company.
  • Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.
  • Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.
  • FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.
  • Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.
  • No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.
  • Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.
  • The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week.
  • 'New flaring' only means no site of the VNF 2023/2024 annual summaries within 2 km: a flare too small or too cloudy for EOG's annual product, or a new furnace, also qualifies.

What would change our mind

Newer satellite images that show no change, a correction from the data source, or a reply with evidence from the ground. If that happens, the case is marked “Turned out wrong” — in public — and it stays on this site.

Why this was published

Two separate sources agreed — NASA fire detections, then Gas-flare detections (VIIRS Nightfire) — and a reviewer checked the evidence before it went up.

Right of reply

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Ledger id 01a0e065-8f2a-76b0-ae90-c3bb61dd3356

Technical details rule, evidence ids, history, proof
Rule
flaring v1.0
Tier
T2
Tags
flaring, oil-gas, discovered, rus, rus_ups_72.5179e_60.7175n
Confirmed
Yes — independent provider signal, 2026-09-27
Rule FP rate
2.4 % · 1 of 41 decided
Location
60.69°N 72.60°E
Observed
2026-09-26
Opened
2026-09-27 by automatic rule flaring v1.0
  1. candidate
  2. confirmed
  3. published
  4. resolved

Evidence2

alertfirms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt

2 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-29…2026-09-27); top cluster 18 nights, max 11.34 MW at 60.717, 72.5167.

hotNightDetections 80maxFrp 15.1maxNights 18persistentClusters 2vnfMatched 2vnfTopBcm 0.16vnfTopKm 0.08vnfYear 2024
· flaring v1.0 · firms-flaring-flare-rus-60p7n-72p5e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27
Source ↗
recordeog-vnf-annualConfirming signal

2 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.16 BCM, 0.08 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary.

bcm 0.16vnfMatched 2
· flaring v1.0 · eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-rus-60p7n-72p5e
Source ↗

Context

ENSO El Niño · ONI +1.8

Publication gates

  • Evidence — 1 piece from firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt — met
  • Independent confirmation — a different provider (eog-vnf-annual), 2026-09-27 — met
  • Human approval — 1 of 2 needed at tier 2 — not met
  • Narration — AI-drafted by claude-opus-5 — met
Published
2026-09-27 by AI model
Narrated By
AI model
Reviewed By
AI model
Policy
2026-09-26-autonomous
Note
autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)

History5

  1. status changed → publishedAI model
  2. reviewed → confirmedAI model
  3. narrated → confirmedAI model
  4. confirmed → confirmedautomatic rule flaring v1.0
  5. created → candidateautomatic rule flaring v1.0

Verify

Checkpoint
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1 · 474 entries
Signed root
3d5c0e5366ef…1a817d
This case
5 signed events
Leaf
#455 of 474 — this case’s latest event
Leaf hash
03d0aa2b5900…4549b7
Proof
8-hash audit path
  1. ef2e9d8b00141704954d35feff937e618db499009cecde32ee5e9050cd22392a
  2. af31b3b71b3ed704ef77bbad8ed94d1bec43be3ca751a00b706a384ce578f9ab
  3. f85b37737498dbb705f8a479828326b63b6f6fa5269de7637ec5b34ddcd1ee39
  4. 8ea627e22613d9d2794da12d775238c4972cb68f2c469b529dcc10d499e628d7
  5. d53da2d9a52c42afa1145e989e67defee70d1ab136a8450be836068243b2b4c4
  6. cfd8a9689a682dbadf13f73837442d7833d9a97eb16baacdedd92a148869879c
  7. 2ac34e8c0b554e5c34b3c90bfdddd542109474aaf07521b16dfe8be684c3edae
  8. 2334f041f7aa83a5ef6099e0c9511b6242e982238cdf9f30561e5bf0cb2526cc
Last event
056c267d3909…bc3bce
Note
Checkpoint text
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1
474
PVwOU2bv7a9jengu9r9j3dQn4kFgYu/+tvWa/eQagX0=

— earthdeck TkCXv/cvio9EAdvkzlL+Yd2YP4DpbJfAKLucFWpg9Lx0fsSq96qdwI14h8khEO0RbAZGTNPZZvO7btaXxroLJftBzwc=

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