{"finding":{"findingId":"01a0e065-8f2a-76b0-ae90-c3bb61dd3356","status":"published","tier":2,"rule":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5,"revisitHours":18}},"title":"Persistent flaring near Nefteyugansky, Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug – Ugra (Russia): 2 cluster(s), up to 18 nights","summary":"2 VIIRS night-time heat cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW persisted on ≥ 5 of the last 30 nights; the most persistent was lit 18 nights (max 11.34 MW). 2 sit on known VNF 2024 flare sites.","geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[72.517,60.717]},"bbox":[71.85,60.34,73.36,61.03],"aoi":{"id":"flare-rus-60p7n-72p5e","name":"Flare field near Nefteyugansky, Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug – Ugra (Russia) — 21 registered sites","tags":["flaring","oil-gas","discovered","rus","rus_ups_72.5179e_60.7175n"]},"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[]},"blindSpots":["Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.","Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.","FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.","Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.","No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.","Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.","The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week.","'New flaring' only means no site of the VNF 2023/2024 annual summaries within 2 km: a flare too small or too cloudy for EOG's annual product, or a new furnace, also qualifies."],"observedAt":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","createdAt":"2026-09-27T01:02:36.454Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-27T01:30:44.071Z","createdBy":"system:flaring@1.0","confirmed":{"at":"2026-09-27T01:02:36.454Z","independence":"provider","signal":{"id":"eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-rus-60p7n-72p5e","kind":"record","source":"eog-vnf-annual","datetime":"2024-12-31T00:00:00Z","href":"https://eogdata.mines.edu/products/vnf/global_gas_flare.html","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"vnfYear":2024}},"summary":"2 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.16 BCM, 0.08 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary.","values":{"bcm":0.16,"vnfMatched":2}}},"evidence":[{"id":"firms-flaring-flare-rus-60p7n-72p5e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[71.85,60.34,73.36,61.03],"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"limit":20,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5}},"summary":"2 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-29…2026-09-27); top cluster 18 nights, max 11.34 MW at 60.717, 72.5167.","values":{"hotNightDetections":80,"maxFrp":15.1,"maxNights":18,"persistentClusters":2,"vnfMatched":2,"vnfTopBcm":0.16,"vnfTopKm":0.08,"vnfYear":2024}}],"attribution":null,"narration":{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e07c-405a-725e-8799-e70952ecaa2a","findingId":"01a0e065-8f2a-76b0-ae90-c3bb61dd3356","at":"2026-09-27T01:30:34.458Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"f34517bba704086256e4f79c600a7f60c04044031ec938861d2cc54b27194248","kind":"narrated","text":"Steady night-time heat at a known flare field near Nefteyugansky: 2 clusters, one lit 18 of 30 nights\n\nVIIRS night-time thermal detections over the flare field near Nefteyugansky, Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug – Ugra (Russia), show 2 clusters burning hot enough (at least 5 MW) on at least 5 of the 30 nights from 29 August to 27 September 2026. The most persistent was lit on 18 nights, with a peak of 11.34 MW at that cluster and a maximum of 15.1 MW across 80 hot-night detections. Both clusters fall on sites already listed in the 2024 VNF annual flare summary — the nearest just 0.08 km away, credited with 0.16 BCM — an independent, provider-separate confirmation that these are known flare locations.\n\nWhat this is not: heat alone cannot separate a gas flare from a furnace, refinery or kiln, and the fire power reading is not a volume. The VNF match is an annual aggregate from a past year, so it proves the site is a known flare, not this month's activity. Cloudy or smoky nights hide detections, so persistence counts are a floor. Unlit venting stays invisible.\n\nWhat would change our mind: sustained gaps once skies are clear, methane readings from S5P or EMIT, or asset records showing a non-flare heat source.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Persistent clusters: 2 [firms-flaring-flare-rus-60p7n-72p5e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Nights lit, top cluster: 18 [firms-flaring-flare-rus-60p7n-72p5e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Peak FRP at top cluster (MW): 11.34 [firms-flaring-flare-rus-60p7n-72p5e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Maximum FRP observed (MW): 15.1 [firms-flaring-flare-rus-60p7n-72p5e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Hot-night detections: 80 [firms-flaring-flare-rus-60p7n-72p5e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Clusters matching VNF 2024 flare sites: 2 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-rus-60p7n-72p5e]\n- VNF 2024 top site volume (BCM): 0.16 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-rus-60p7n-72p5e]\n- Distance to nearest VNF site (km): 0.08 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-rus-60p7n-72p5e]\n\nConfidence: high\nCaveats:\n- Thermal data cannot distinguish a flare from a furnace, refinery or kiln; persistence plus the VNF site match is the argument.\n- Fire power is not flared volume; the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and readings are single-pixel estimates.\n- Cloud and smoke hide nights, so night counts are a minimum and a quiet stretch may not mean a flare stopped.\n- Only two satellite passes per night (~01:30 local); short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed.\n- The VNF confirmation is a 2024 annual aggregate — it establishes a known flare site, not this month's burning.\n- Unlit venting and cold methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors.\n- No operator or ownership attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"03c7eacf43104cc1b5b3c2c2b576f02285846ab8c41cf7090374deff5a369ed0","transcriptSha256":"cde551f6210bc7269658f99d3f91e1e3c9930f073e9608049ac22e8be4ca5869","evidenceRefs":["firms-flaring-flare-rus-60p7n-72p5e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27","eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-rus-60p7n-72p5e"]},"reviews":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e07c-65e2-750c-b315-11a7ab92744c","findingId":"01a0e065-8f2a-76b0-ae90-c3bb61dd3356","at":"2026-09-27T01:30:44.066Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"e1a51dfbe2393e8171878b51fcf54d9f4908b8be0bbafb071136ebdfec65479f","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":2,"note":"All numeric claims (clusters, nights, FRP values, detections, VNF match, distance, BCM) match the evidence exactly.; Narration explicitly reiterates nearly all blind spots: heat source ambiguity, FRP≠volume, cloud/smoke under-counting, revisit-hour gaps, annual VNF aggregate limitation, invisible unlit venting, no attribution.; No individuals or personal names are referenced, only a location and facility type.; AOI is tagged with flaring/oil-gas/discovered/rus, control:false, confirming this is a genuine (non-control) site.","verdict":"publish"}],"notifications":[],"replies":[],"retracted":null,"history":[{"at":"2026-09-27T01:02:36.454Z","kind":"created","status":"candidate","actor":"system:flaring@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-27T01:02:36.454Z","kind":"confirmed","status":"confirmed","actor":"system:flaring@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-27T01:30:34.458Z","kind":"narrated","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-opus-5"},{"at":"2026-09-27T01:30:44.066Z","kind":"reviewed","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"},{"at":"2026-09-27T01:30:44.071Z","kind":"status_changed","status":"published","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"}],"eventCount":5,"lastEventHash":"056c267d39091ca8352e6609c96575f235ff9e6d3ddda0b7e574be9e15bc3bce"},"events":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e065-8f2a-7834-a94d-64e8f6ad908d","findingId":"01a0e065-8f2a-76b0-ae90-c3bb61dd3356","at":"2026-09-27T01:02:36.454Z","actor":"system:flaring@1.0","prev":null,"kind":"created","rule":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5,"revisitHours":18}},"title":"Persistent flaring near Nefteyugansky, Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug – Ugra (Russia): 2 cluster(s), up to 18 nights","summary":"2 VIIRS night-time heat cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW persisted on ≥ 5 of the last 30 nights; the most persistent was lit 18 nights (max 11.34 MW). 2 sit on known VNF 2024 flare sites.","tier":2,"geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[72.517,60.717]},"bbox":[71.85,60.34,73.36,61.03],"aoi":{"id":"flare-rus-60p7n-72p5e","name":"Flare field near Nefteyugansky, Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug – Ugra (Russia) — 21 registered sites","tags":["flaring","oil-gas","discovered","rus","rus_ups_72.5179e_60.7175n"]},"observedAt":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","evidence":[{"id":"firms-flaring-flare-rus-60p7n-72p5e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[71.85,60.34,73.36,61.03],"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"limit":20,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5}},"summary":"2 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-29…2026-09-27); top cluster 18 nights, max 11.34 MW at 60.717, 72.5167.","values":{"hotNightDetections":80,"maxFrp":15.1,"maxNights":18,"persistentClusters":2,"vnfMatched":2,"vnfTopBcm":0.16,"vnfTopKm":0.08,"vnfYear":2024}}],"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[]},"blindSpots":["Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.","Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.","FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.","Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.","No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.","Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.","The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week.","'New flaring' only means no site of the VNF 2023/2024 annual summaries within 2 km: a flare too small or too cloudy for EOG's annual product, or a new furnace, also qualifies."]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e065-8f2f-723b-8585-19b1e8a6a065","findingId":"01a0e065-8f2a-76b0-ae90-c3bb61dd3356","at":"2026-09-27T01:02:36.454Z","actor":"system:flaring@1.0","prev":"3fffe797b2ba2a845fa75345425d7cd6341df1efaff175ad798071c09d1b52f3","kind":"confirmed","signal":{"id":"eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-rus-60p7n-72p5e","kind":"record","source":"eog-vnf-annual","datetime":"2024-12-31T00:00:00Z","href":"https://eogdata.mines.edu/products/vnf/global_gas_flare.html","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"vnfYear":2024}},"summary":"2 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.16 BCM, 0.08 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary.","values":{"bcm":0.16,"vnfMatched":2}},"independence":"provider"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e07c-405a-725e-8799-e70952ecaa2a","findingId":"01a0e065-8f2a-76b0-ae90-c3bb61dd3356","at":"2026-09-27T01:30:34.458Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"f34517bba704086256e4f79c600a7f60c04044031ec938861d2cc54b27194248","kind":"narrated","text":"Steady night-time heat at a known flare field near Nefteyugansky: 2 clusters, one lit 18 of 30 nights\n\nVIIRS night-time thermal detections over the flare field near Nefteyugansky, Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug – Ugra (Russia), show 2 clusters burning hot enough (at least 5 MW) on at least 5 of the 30 nights from 29 August to 27 September 2026. The most persistent was lit on 18 nights, with a peak of 11.34 MW at that cluster and a maximum of 15.1 MW across 80 hot-night detections. Both clusters fall on sites already listed in the 2024 VNF annual flare summary — the nearest just 0.08 km away, credited with 0.16 BCM — an independent, provider-separate confirmation that these are known flare locations.\n\nWhat this is not: heat alone cannot separate a gas flare from a furnace, refinery or kiln, and the fire power reading is not a volume. The VNF match is an annual aggregate from a past year, so it proves the site is a known flare, not this month's activity. Cloudy or smoky nights hide detections, so persistence counts are a floor. Unlit venting stays invisible.\n\nWhat would change our mind: sustained gaps once skies are clear, methane readings from S5P or EMIT, or asset records showing a non-flare heat source.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Persistent clusters: 2 [firms-flaring-flare-rus-60p7n-72p5e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Nights lit, top cluster: 18 [firms-flaring-flare-rus-60p7n-72p5e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Peak FRP at top cluster (MW): 11.34 [firms-flaring-flare-rus-60p7n-72p5e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Maximum FRP observed (MW): 15.1 [firms-flaring-flare-rus-60p7n-72p5e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Hot-night detections: 80 [firms-flaring-flare-rus-60p7n-72p5e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Clusters matching VNF 2024 flare sites: 2 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-rus-60p7n-72p5e]\n- VNF 2024 top site volume (BCM): 0.16 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-rus-60p7n-72p5e]\n- Distance to nearest VNF site (km): 0.08 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-rus-60p7n-72p5e]\n\nConfidence: high\nCaveats:\n- Thermal data cannot distinguish a flare from a furnace, refinery or kiln; persistence plus the VNF site match is the argument.\n- Fire power is not flared volume; the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and readings are single-pixel estimates.\n- Cloud and smoke hide nights, so night counts are a minimum and a quiet stretch may not mean a flare stopped.\n- Only two satellite passes per night (~01:30 local); short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed.\n- The VNF confirmation is a 2024 annual aggregate — it establishes a known flare site, not this month's burning.\n- Unlit venting and cold methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors.\n- No operator or ownership attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"03c7eacf43104cc1b5b3c2c2b576f02285846ab8c41cf7090374deff5a369ed0","transcriptSha256":"cde551f6210bc7269658f99d3f91e1e3c9930f073e9608049ac22e8be4ca5869","evidenceRefs":["firms-flaring-flare-rus-60p7n-72p5e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27","eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-rus-60p7n-72p5e"]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e07c-65e2-750c-b315-11a7ab92744c","findingId":"01a0e065-8f2a-76b0-ae90-c3bb61dd3356","at":"2026-09-27T01:30:44.066Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"e1a51dfbe2393e8171878b51fcf54d9f4908b8be0bbafb071136ebdfec65479f","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":2,"note":"All numeric claims (clusters, nights, FRP values, detections, VNF match, distance, BCM) match the evidence exactly.; Narration explicitly reiterates nearly all blind spots: heat source ambiguity, FRP≠volume, cloud/smoke under-counting, revisit-hour gaps, annual VNF aggregate limitation, invisible unlit venting, no attribution.; No individuals or personal names are referenced, only a location and facility type.; AOI is tagged with flaring/oil-gas/discovered/rus, control:false, confirming this is a genuine (non-control) site.","verdict":"publish"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e07c-65e7-747d-8ac6-ce6df641f508","findingId":"01a0e065-8f2a-76b0-ae90-c3bb61dd3356","at":"2026-09-27T01:30:44.071Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"3b6cdd686fce4255ce8e7f5a6641101175902679c268bb2baf3d1a79190603d6","kind":"status_changed","from":"confirmed","to":"published","reason":"autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)","gates":{"narratedBy":"model:claude-opus-5","reviewedBy":["model:claude-sonnet-5"],"policy":"2026-09-26-autonomous"}}],"inclusion":{"index":455,"leafHash":"03d0aa2b59008d59acbf434a662ee0325fcdbd0f729bad5f584e7c02c24549b7","proof":["ef2e9d8b00141704954d35feff937e618db499009cecde32ee5e9050cd22392a","af31b3b71b3ed704ef77bbad8ed94d1bec43be3ca751a00b706a384ce578f9ab","f85b37737498dbb705f8a479828326b63b6f6fa5269de7637ec5b34ddcd1ee39","8ea627e22613d9d2794da12d775238c4972cb68f2c469b529dcc10d499e628d7","d53da2d9a52c42afa1145e989e67defee70d1ab136a8450be836068243b2b4c4","cfd8a9689a682dbadf13f73837442d7833d9a97eb16baacdedd92a148869879c","2ac34e8c0b554e5c34b3c90bfdddd542109474aaf07521b16dfe8be684c3edae","2334f041f7aa83a5ef6099e0c9511b6242e982238cdf9f30561e5bf0cb2526cc"],"size":474,"root":"3d5c0e5366efedaf637a782ef6bf63ddd427e2416062effeb6f59afde41a817d"}}