TerraKeepKeeping Earth within its limits
Cloud-free satellite view around Flare field near Hoveyzeh, Khuzestan (Iran) — 5 registered sites, with the finding area outlined
31.22°N 48.09°ENASA Blue Marble via GIBS · outline = finding area
Published

Night-time heat burns 27 of 30 nights near Hoveyzeh, at a spot not in the flare registry

Flare field near Hoveyzeh, Khuzestan (Iran) — 5 registered sites · seen · published

Satellite night passes picked up a steady point of heat about where the Hoveyzeh flare field sits in Khuzestan, Iran — but at a location with no registered flare site within 2 km in the 2023 or 2024 annual flare summaries. The cluster was lit on 27 of the last 30 nights, peaking at 27.6 MW, one of 4 persistent clusters detected in the area (3 of which match known registry sites). A later pass on 27 September saw the heat again, at 23.99 MW, confirming it is still burning.

What this is not: thermal sensors see heat, not its cause. A furnace, refinery unit, kiln or other industrial heat source looks much the same from orbit. "New" only means absent from the annual registry — a flare too small or too often cloud-covered for that product would also show up as new. Heat is also not volume; the brightness figure is a single-pixel estimate, not gas burned. Cold venting and unlit methane are invisible here.

What would change our mind: a ground or high-resolution image showing a stack or furnace, an entry for this point in the next annual flare summary, or the heat stopping on clear nights.

Written by AI, then checked by a separate reviewer before publication. Every claim points at the evidence below.

What we saw

  • NASA fire detections — 4 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-29…2026-09-27); new cluster (no VNF 2023 and 2024 site within 2 km) 27 nights, max 27.6 MW at 31.2367, 47.9648. (Sep 26, 2026) See the source ↗
  • NASA fire detections — Night-time heat with FRP ≥ 5 MW again at the flagged cluster on a later pass (2026-09-27). (Sep 27, 2026) See the source ↗

What it might not be

  • Thermal detection cannot distinguish a gas flare from a furnace, refinery unit or kiln.
  • "New" means only that no 2023/2024 registry site lies within 2 km; a small or cloud-obscured flare would also qualify.
  • Heat output is not flared volume; the sensor saturates on the largest flares.
  • Cloudy nights under-count persistence and can mimic a flare being switched off.
  • Only two passes per night (~01:30 local); short or intermittent burning between passes is missed.
  • No operator or ownership information — this is a location, not an asset holder.
  • Unlit venting and cold methane releases are invisible to these sensors.
  • Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.
  • Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.
  • FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.
  • Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.
  • No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.
  • Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.
  • The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week.
  • 'New flaring' only means no site of the VNF 2023/2024 annual summaries within 2 km: a flare too small or too cloudy for EOG's annual product, or a new furnace, also qualifies.

What would change our mind

Newer satellite images that show no change, a correction from the data source, or a reply with evidence from the ground. If that happens, the case is marked “Turned out wrong” — in public — and it stays on this site.

Why this was published

Two separate sources agreed — NASA fire detections, then NASA fire detections — and a reviewer checked the evidence before it went up.

Replies

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Ledger id 01a0e04a-1131-76be-9560-64d9e8461a07

Technical details rule, evidence ids, history, proof
Rule
flaring v1.0
Tier
T2
Tags
flaring, oil-gas, discovered, irn, irn_ups_48.1166e_31.2731n, new-flare
Confirmed
Yes — independent revisit signal, 2026-09-28
Rule FP rate
4.3 % · 2 of 46 decided
Location
31.22°N 48.09°E
Observed
2026-09-26
Opened
2026-09-27 by automatic rule flaring v1.0
  1. candidate
  2. confirmed
  3. published
  4. resolved

Evidence2

alertfirms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt

4 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-29…2026-09-27); new cluster (no VNF 2023 and 2024 site within 2 km) 27 nights, max 27.6 MW at 31.2367, 47.9648.

hotNightDetections 546maxFrp 119.29maxNights 27newClusters 1new_flare 1persistentClusters 4vnfMatched 3vnfTopBcm 0.643vnfTopKm 0.17vnfYear 2024
· flaring v1.0 · firms-flaring-flare-irn-31p3n-48p1e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27
Source ↗
alertfirms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrtConfirming signal

Night-time heat with FRP ≥ 5 MW again at the flagged cluster on a later pass (2026-09-27).

clusters 1maxFrp 23.99
· flaring v1.0 · firms-flaring-flare-irn-31p3n-48p1e-2026-09-27-revisit
Source ↗

Context

ENSO El Niño · ONI +1.8

Publication gates

  • Evidence — 1 piece from firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt — met
  • Independent confirmation — a different revisit (firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt), 2026-09-28 — met
  • Human approval — 1 of 2 needed at tier 2 — not met
  • Narration — AI-drafted by claude-opus-5 — met
Published
2026-09-28 by AI model
Narrated By
AI model
Reviewed By
AI model
Policy
2026-09-26-autonomous
Note
autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)

History5

  1. status changed → publishedAI model
  2. reviewed → confirmedAI model
  3. narrated → confirmedAI model
  4. confirmed → confirmedautomatic rule flaring v1.0
  5. created → candidateautomatic rule flaring v1.0

Verify

Checkpoint
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1 · 714 entries
Signed root
23ed27dda9a2…5fec16
This case
5 signed events
Leaf
#707 of 714 — this case’s latest event
Leaf hash
ce567804ec1e…dd399a
Proof
7-hash audit path
  1. 9bf592fd69af75aad000517a981e2a25915c542d5b2fad689215a66b52e97ee8
  2. 794ecbc147703d94c286c24dd76664242ffbd8af79614808a6374eab621bc9a9
  3. 1dd8b669176ba23a234c3887e513118ce5f8fd15a154b8fdd926ee02760d8174
  4. a7fdef2cf5b5a712272dd0a660098eb2cfa6428b0896d7a072066e511d831900
  5. 227a1a00b64043f08073431f63834a568f922396dea9ef77ee795cd7e34484d7
  6. 4dcd70c622d414afaa3e0c21c3cf5233386d63f463994a07fff4e5e92c390f72
  7. 5f7580b7f5a7f09ff7675565fb36c19876079a6c101f721419a5a07a7a23b1c1
Last event
53d0ea34e31e…6aea27
Note
Checkpoint text
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1
714
I+0n3ami2iq+Pb01ZzA9/W1AK7wHekeD5OebmHxf7BY=

— earthdeck TkCXv0OmAxDtzaj1At98wE5s0VUwWeSCBAVzEDOuLw2Ioh7cGCd8Por/k57n26y0m4mCTkkb6qIdr6CB1+b6NmG1wgc=

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