{"finding":{"findingId":"01a0e04a-1131-76be-9560-64d9e8461a07","status":"published","tier":2,"rule":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5,"revisitHours":18}},"title":"New flaring near Hoveyzeh, Khuzestan (Iran)","summary":"1 persistent VIIRS night-time heat cluster(s) near Hoveyzeh, Khuzestan (Iran) are not in the flare registry: no site of the VNF 2023 and 2024 annual summaries within 2 km. One was lit 27 of the last 30 nights (max 27.6 MW) at 31.2367, 47.9648. It may be a new flare — or a furnace, or a flare too small for EOG's annual product; a later pass confirms the heat, not its cause.","geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[47.965,31.237]},"bbox":[47.95,31.06,48.24,31.38],"aoi":{"id":"flare-irn-31p3n-48p1e","name":"Flare field near Hoveyzeh, Khuzestan (Iran) — 5 registered sites","tags":["flaring","oil-gas","discovered","irn","irn_ups_48.1166e_31.2731n","new-flare"]},"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[]},"blindSpots":["Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.","Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.","FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.","Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.","No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.","Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.","The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week.","'New flaring' only means no site of the VNF 2023/2024 annual summaries within 2 km: a flare too small or too cloudy for EOG's annual product, or a new furnace, also qualifies."],"observedAt":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","createdAt":"2026-09-27T00:34:19.577Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-28T01:32:38.026Z","createdBy":"system:flaring@1.0","confirmed":{"at":"2026-09-28T00:30:11.972Z","independence":"revisit","signal":{"id":"firms-flaring-flare-irn-31p3n-48p1e-2026-09-27-revisit","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-27T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[47.95,31.06,48.24,31.38],"clusterKm":1,"days":2,"limit":50,"minFrp":5,"minNights":1,"vnf":false}},"summary":"Night-time heat with FRP ≥ 5 MW again at the flagged cluster on a later pass (2026-09-27).","values":{"clusters":1,"maxFrp":23.99}}},"evidence":[{"id":"firms-flaring-flare-irn-31p3n-48p1e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[47.95,31.06,48.24,31.38],"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"limit":20,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5}},"summary":"4 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-29…2026-09-27); new cluster (no VNF 2023 and 2024 site within 2 km) 27 nights, max 27.6 MW at 31.2367, 47.9648.","values":{"hotNightDetections":546,"maxFrp":119.29,"maxNights":27,"newClusters":1,"new_flare":1,"persistentClusters":4,"vnfMatched":3,"vnfTopBcm":0.643,"vnfTopKm":0.17,"vnfYear":2024}}],"attribution":null,"narration":{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e5a4-5570-7fa9-b44f-268d8bd3df2a","findingId":"01a0e04a-1131-76be-9560-64d9e8461a07","at":"2026-09-28T01:32:27.376Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"ac06415028b737a35040a35fdfbe3de19954c3844dc0fe503f999a793af5dca1","kind":"narrated","text":"Night-time heat burns 27 of 30 nights near Hoveyzeh, at a spot not in the flare registry\n\nSatellite night passes picked up a steady point of heat about where the Hoveyzeh flare field sits in Khuzestan, Iran — but at a location with no registered flare site within 2 km in the 2023 or 2024 annual flare summaries. The cluster was lit on 27 of the last 30 nights, peaking at 27.6 MW, one of 4 persistent clusters detected in the area (3 of which match known registry sites). A later pass on 27 September saw the heat again, at 23.99 MW, confirming it is still burning.\n\nWhat this is not: thermal sensors see heat, not its cause. A furnace, refinery unit, kiln or other industrial heat source looks much the same from orbit. \"New\" only means absent from the annual registry — a flare too small or too often cloud-covered for that product would also show up as new. Heat is also not volume; the brightness figure is a single-pixel estimate, not gas burned. Cold venting and unlit methane are invisible here.\n\nWhat would change our mind: a ground or high-resolution image showing a stack or furnace, an entry for this point in the next annual flare summary, or the heat stopping on clear nights.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Nights lit out of 30: 27 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-31p3n-48p1e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Peak heat at new cluster (MW): 27.6 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-31p3n-48p1e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Persistent clusters in the area: 4 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-31p3n-48p1e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Clusters matching the flare registry: 3 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-31p3n-48p1e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Unregistered (new) clusters: 1 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-31p3n-48p1e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Heat on confirming pass, 27 Sep (MW): 23.99 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-31p3n-48p1e-2026-09-27-revisit]\n\nConfidence: medium\nCaveats:\n- Thermal detection cannot distinguish a gas flare from a furnace, refinery unit or kiln.\n- \"New\" means only that no 2023/2024 registry site lies within 2 km; a small or cloud-obscured flare would also qualify.\n- Heat output is not flared volume; the sensor saturates on the largest flares.\n- Cloudy nights under-count persistence and can mimic a flare being switched off.\n- Only two passes per night (~01:30 local); short or intermittent burning between passes is missed.\n- No operator or ownership information — this is a location, not an asset holder.\n- Unlit venting and cold methane releases are invisible to these sensors.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"fa03df752e1a8bd20cf7d0ac4ce92e0af0e37284c19cd5827a79ff92170342ac","transcriptSha256":"e170abca9f3d1cea19552ec68e22a4cb492529e16a94107862bdd3263fdc43ba","evidenceRefs":["firms-flaring-flare-irn-31p3n-48p1e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27","firms-flaring-flare-irn-31p3n-48p1e-2026-09-27-revisit"]},"reviews":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e5a4-7eff-7344-8649-6c8f482e3c88","findingId":"01a0e04a-1131-76be-9560-64d9e8461a07","at":"2026-09-28T01:32:38.015Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"73093dd479ac87650820792f784a3c625941f2d4d0e1bb9ca264ca85852d93bf","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":2,"note":"All quantitative claims (27/30 nights, 27.6 MW peak, 4 persistent clusters, 3 registry matches, 1 new cluster, 23.99 MW confirming pass) are directly sourced from the evidence and confirmation signal.; Narration clearly states blind spots: cannot distinguish flare from furnace/kiln/refinery, 'new' only means absent from 2023/2024 VNF registry, FRP is not volume and saturates, cloud cover under-counts nights, only two passes/night, no ownership attribution, and cold/unlit venting is invisible — all matching the finding's blindSpots list.; No individuals or companies are named; language stays at location/asset level.; AOI is tagged control:false and lacks a 'control' tag, consistent with this being a genuine discovery site, not a control test.","verdict":"publish"}],"notifications":[],"replies":[],"retracted":null,"history":[{"at":"2026-09-27T00:34:19.577Z","kind":"created","status":"candidate","actor":"system:flaring@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-28T00:30:11.972Z","kind":"confirmed","status":"confirmed","actor":"system:flaring@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-28T01:32:27.376Z","kind":"narrated","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-opus-5"},{"at":"2026-09-28T01:32:38.015Z","kind":"reviewed","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"},{"at":"2026-09-28T01:32:38.026Z","kind":"status_changed","status":"published","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"}],"eventCount":5,"lastEventHash":"53d0ea34e31ee4f26e0f2941e6e8cbae7ec9e0e04a4b8518fccffa0cb46aea27"},"events":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e04a-1132-7718-8588-988ed53a04d2","findingId":"01a0e04a-1131-76be-9560-64d9e8461a07","at":"2026-09-27T00:34:19.577Z","actor":"system:flaring@1.0","prev":null,"kind":"created","rule":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5,"revisitHours":18}},"title":"New flaring near Hoveyzeh, Khuzestan (Iran)","summary":"1 persistent VIIRS night-time heat cluster(s) near Hoveyzeh, Khuzestan (Iran) are not in the flare registry: no site of the VNF 2023 and 2024 annual summaries within 2 km. One was lit 27 of the last 30 nights (max 27.6 MW) at 31.2367, 47.9648. It may be a new flare — or a furnace, or a flare too small for EOG's annual product; a later pass confirms the heat, not its cause.","tier":2,"geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[47.965,31.237]},"bbox":[47.95,31.06,48.24,31.38],"aoi":{"id":"flare-irn-31p3n-48p1e","name":"Flare field near Hoveyzeh, Khuzestan (Iran) — 5 registered sites","tags":["flaring","oil-gas","discovered","irn","irn_ups_48.1166e_31.2731n","new-flare"]},"observedAt":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","evidence":[{"id":"firms-flaring-flare-irn-31p3n-48p1e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[47.95,31.06,48.24,31.38],"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"limit":20,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5}},"summary":"4 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-29…2026-09-27); new cluster (no VNF 2023 and 2024 site within 2 km) 27 nights, max 27.6 MW at 31.2367, 47.9648.","values":{"hotNightDetections":546,"maxFrp":119.29,"maxNights":27,"newClusters":1,"new_flare":1,"persistentClusters":4,"vnfMatched":3,"vnfTopBcm":0.643,"vnfTopKm":0.17,"vnfYear":2024}}],"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[]},"blindSpots":["Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.","Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.","FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.","Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.","No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.","Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.","The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week.","'New flaring' only means no site of the VNF 2023/2024 annual summaries within 2 km: a flare too small or too cloudy for EOG's annual product, or a new furnace, also qualifies."]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e56e-d163-74ba-954c-f3539d6c0f37","findingId":"01a0e04a-1131-76be-9560-64d9e8461a07","at":"2026-09-28T00:30:11.972Z","actor":"system:flaring@1.0","prev":"39a2510042be93cf23971463f7eb9f6509b867131889bd0b1a0ec05a0051e2e5","kind":"confirmed","signal":{"id":"firms-flaring-flare-irn-31p3n-48p1e-2026-09-27-revisit","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-27T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[47.95,31.06,48.24,31.38],"clusterKm":1,"days":2,"limit":50,"minFrp":5,"minNights":1,"vnf":false}},"summary":"Night-time heat with FRP ≥ 5 MW again at the flagged cluster on a later pass (2026-09-27).","values":{"clusters":1,"maxFrp":23.99}},"independence":"revisit"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e5a4-5570-7fa9-b44f-268d8bd3df2a","findingId":"01a0e04a-1131-76be-9560-64d9e8461a07","at":"2026-09-28T01:32:27.376Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"ac06415028b737a35040a35fdfbe3de19954c3844dc0fe503f999a793af5dca1","kind":"narrated","text":"Night-time heat burns 27 of 30 nights near Hoveyzeh, at a spot not in the flare registry\n\nSatellite night passes picked up a steady point of heat about where the Hoveyzeh flare field sits in Khuzestan, Iran — but at a location with no registered flare site within 2 km in the 2023 or 2024 annual flare summaries. The cluster was lit on 27 of the last 30 nights, peaking at 27.6 MW, one of 4 persistent clusters detected in the area (3 of which match known registry sites). A later pass on 27 September saw the heat again, at 23.99 MW, confirming it is still burning.\n\nWhat this is not: thermal sensors see heat, not its cause. A furnace, refinery unit, kiln or other industrial heat source looks much the same from orbit. \"New\" only means absent from the annual registry — a flare too small or too often cloud-covered for that product would also show up as new. Heat is also not volume; the brightness figure is a single-pixel estimate, not gas burned. Cold venting and unlit methane are invisible here.\n\nWhat would change our mind: a ground or high-resolution image showing a stack or furnace, an entry for this point in the next annual flare summary, or the heat stopping on clear nights.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Nights lit out of 30: 27 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-31p3n-48p1e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Peak heat at new cluster (MW): 27.6 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-31p3n-48p1e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Persistent clusters in the area: 4 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-31p3n-48p1e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Clusters matching the flare registry: 3 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-31p3n-48p1e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Unregistered (new) clusters: 1 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-31p3n-48p1e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Heat on confirming pass, 27 Sep (MW): 23.99 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-31p3n-48p1e-2026-09-27-revisit]\n\nConfidence: medium\nCaveats:\n- Thermal detection cannot distinguish a gas flare from a furnace, refinery unit or kiln.\n- \"New\" means only that no 2023/2024 registry site lies within 2 km; a small or cloud-obscured flare would also qualify.\n- Heat output is not flared volume; the sensor saturates on the largest flares.\n- Cloudy nights under-count persistence and can mimic a flare being switched off.\n- Only two passes per night (~01:30 local); short or intermittent burning between passes is missed.\n- No operator or ownership information — this is a location, not an asset holder.\n- Unlit venting and cold methane releases are invisible to these sensors.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"fa03df752e1a8bd20cf7d0ac4ce92e0af0e37284c19cd5827a79ff92170342ac","transcriptSha256":"e170abca9f3d1cea19552ec68e22a4cb492529e16a94107862bdd3263fdc43ba","evidenceRefs":["firms-flaring-flare-irn-31p3n-48p1e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27","firms-flaring-flare-irn-31p3n-48p1e-2026-09-27-revisit"]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e5a4-7eff-7344-8649-6c8f482e3c88","findingId":"01a0e04a-1131-76be-9560-64d9e8461a07","at":"2026-09-28T01:32:38.015Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"73093dd479ac87650820792f784a3c625941f2d4d0e1bb9ca264ca85852d93bf","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":2,"note":"All quantitative claims (27/30 nights, 27.6 MW peak, 4 persistent clusters, 3 registry matches, 1 new cluster, 23.99 MW confirming pass) are directly sourced from the evidence and confirmation signal.; Narration clearly states blind spots: cannot distinguish flare from furnace/kiln/refinery, 'new' only means absent from 2023/2024 VNF registry, FRP is not volume and saturates, cloud cover under-counts nights, only two passes/night, no ownership attribution, and cold/unlit venting is invisible — all matching the finding's blindSpots list.; No individuals or companies are named; language stays at location/asset level.; AOI is tagged control:false and lacks a 'control' tag, consistent with this being a genuine discovery site, not a control test.","verdict":"publish"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e5a4-7f0a-7915-9ed3-228ce28922de","findingId":"01a0e04a-1131-76be-9560-64d9e8461a07","at":"2026-09-28T01:32:38.026Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"b4bfc0754fa904c1f25505d0b637efce91c4099c08a1fe3752726079bbef0a73","kind":"status_changed","from":"confirmed","to":"published","reason":"autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)","gates":{"narratedBy":"model:claude-opus-5","reviewedBy":["model:claude-sonnet-5"],"policy":"2026-09-26-autonomous"}}],"inclusion":{"index":707,"leafHash":"ce567804ec1e9334dfa3f7d0bbe0f3c8a753ab39d8b1fc14df33cc4028dd399a","proof":["9bf592fd69af75aad000517a981e2a25915c542d5b2fad689215a66b52e97ee8","794ecbc147703d94c286c24dd76664242ffbd8af79614808a6374eab621bc9a9","1dd8b669176ba23a234c3887e513118ce5f8fd15a154b8fdd926ee02760d8174","a7fdef2cf5b5a712272dd0a660098eb2cfa6428b0896d7a072066e511d831900","227a1a00b64043f08073431f63834a568f922396dea9ef77ee795cd7e34484d7","4dcd70c622d414afaa3e0c21c3cf5233386d63f463994a07fff4e5e92c390f72","5f7580b7f5a7f09ff7675565fb36c19876079a6c101f721419a5a07a7a23b1c1"],"size":714,"root":"23ed27dda9a2da2abe3dbd3567303dfd6d402bbc077a4783e4e79b987c5fec16"}}