TerraKeepKeeping Earth within its limits
Cloud-free satellite view around Flare field near Mirninsky, Sakha Republic (Russia) — 22 registered sites, with the finding area outlined
61.45°N 112.97°ENASA Blue Marble via GIBS · outline = finding area
Published

Unregistered night-time heat source burning 16 of 30 nights near Mirninsky, Sakha Republic

Flare field near Mirninsky, Sakha Republic (Russia) — 22 registered sites · seen · published

Night-time infrared passes from the VIIRS sensors on NOAA-20 and NOAA-21 picked out 4 persistent heat clusters in this flare field between 29 August and 27 September 2026. Three match sites in the EOG flare registry (VNF) annual summaries; one does not, with no registered site within 2 km. That cluster, at 61.406, 112.8891, was lit on 16 of 30 nights, peaking at 44.39 MW. A later pass on 30 September again found heat of at least 5 MW at the same spot, at 9.04 MW — confirming the heat is still there, not what is making it.

It may not be a new flare. Thermal sensors cannot separate a gas flare from an industrial furnace or kiln, and "new" here only means absent from the 2023 and 2024 annual registries — a flare too small or too often cloud-covered for those products would also look new. Cold venting of gas is invisible to these sensors entirely. The finding names a place, not an operator.

What would change our mind: a matching entry in a later VNF annual summary, high-resolution imagery showing a building or kiln rather than a flare stack, or the heat ending as cloud clears.

Written by AI, then checked by a separate reviewer before publication. Every claim points at the evidence below.

What we saw

  • NASA fire detections — 4 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-29…2026-09-27); new cluster (no VNF 2023 and 2024 site within 2 km) 16 nights, max 44.39 MW at 61.406, 112.8891. (Sep 25, 2026) See the source ↗
  • NASA fire detections — 3 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-09-02…2026-10-01); new cluster (no VNF 2023 and 2024 site within 2 km) 13 nights, max 28.89 MW at 61.4059, 112.8889. (Sep 30, 2026) See the source ↗
  • NASA fire detections — Night-time heat with FRP ≥ 5 MW again at the flagged cluster on a later pass (2026-09-30). (Sep 30, 2026) See the source ↗

What it might not be

  • Thermal data cannot distinguish a flare from a furnace, refinery or kiln.
  • "New" means only: no VNF 2023/2024 registry site within 2 km.
  • FRP is not flared volume; VIIRS can saturate on large flares.
  • Cloudy nights are missed, so persistence counts are a floor.
  • Two passes per night; short or intermittent burns go unseen.
  • Unlit venting of methane is invisible to these sensors.
  • No operator or ownership is identified; this is a location only.
  • The confirming pass verifies continued heat, not its cause.
  • Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.
  • Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.
  • FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.
  • Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.
  • No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.
  • Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.
  • The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week.
  • 'New flaring' only means no site of the VNF 2023/2024 annual summaries within 2 km: a flare too small or too cloudy for EOG's annual product, or a new furnace, also qualifies.

What would change our mind

Newer satellite images that show no change, a correction from the data source, or a reply with evidence from the ground. If that happens, the case is marked “Turned out wrong” — in public — and it stays on this site.

Why this was published

Two separate sources agreed — NASA fire detections, then NASA fire detections — and a reviewer checked the evidence before it went up.

Replies

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Ledger id 01a0e049-e1b0-77c2-8d6f-e2de0d66be09

Technical details rule, evidence ids, history, proof
Rule
flaring v1.0
Tier
T2
Tags
flaring, oil-gas, discovered, rus, rus_ups_112.8072e_61.3476n, new-flare
Confirmed
Yes — independent revisit signal, 2026-10-01
Rule FP rate
5.8 % · 3 of 52 decided
Location
61.45°N 112.97°E
Observed
2026-09-25
Opened
2026-09-27 by automatic rule flaring v1.0
  1. candidate
  2. confirmed
  3. published
  4. resolved

Evidence3

alertfirms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt

4 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-29…2026-09-27); new cluster (no VNF 2023 and 2024 site within 2 km) 16 nights, max 44.39 MW at 61.406, 112.8891.

hotNightDetections 586maxFrp 197.68maxNights 16newClusters 1new_flare 1persistentClusters 4vnfMatched 3vnfTopBcm 1.034vnfTopKm 0.12vnfYear 2024
· flaring v1.0 · firms-flaring-flare-rus-61p3n-112p8e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27
Source ↗
alertfirms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt

3 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-09-02…2026-10-01); new cluster (no VNF 2023 and 2024 site within 2 km) 13 nights, max 28.89 MW at 61.4059, 112.8889.

hotNightDetections 401maxFrp 197.68maxNights 13newClusters 1new_flare 1persistentClusters 3vnfMatched 2vnfTopBcm 1.034vnfTopKm 0.12vnfYear 2024
· flaring v1.0 · firms-flaring-flare-rus-61p3n-112p8e-2026-09-02-2026-10-01
Source ↗
alertfirms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrtConfirming signal

Night-time heat with FRP ≥ 5 MW again at the flagged cluster on a later pass (2026-09-30).

clusters 1maxFrp 9.04
· flaring v1.0 · firms-flaring-flare-rus-61p3n-112p8e-2026-09-30-revisit
Source ↗

Context

ENSO El Niño · ONI +1.8

Publication gates

  • Evidence — 2 pieces from firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt — met
  • Independent confirmation — a different revisit (firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt), 2026-10-01 — met
  • Human approval — 1 of 2 needed at tier 2 — not met
  • Narration — AI-drafted by claude-opus-5 — met
Published
2026-10-01 by AI model
Narrated By
AI model
Reviewed By
AI model
Policy
2026-09-26-autonomous
Note
autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)

History6

  1. evidence added → publishedautomatic rule flaring v1.0
  2. status changed → publishedAI model
  3. reviewed → confirmedAI model
  4. narrated → confirmedAI model
  5. confirmed → confirmedautomatic rule flaring v1.0
  6. created → candidateautomatic rule flaring v1.0

Verify

Checkpoint
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1 · 1104 entries
Signed root
2d46ab865c78…d5686a
This case
6 signed events
Leaf
#1096 of 1104 — this case’s latest event
Leaf hash
45b3c53b206e…4c5315
Proof
6-hash audit path
  1. 49ae44d5a8b4476df85c083f1fef020dbde0d0528c325596f44a556ce620d0e8
  2. b5085375af98e42f412159a1017999c55bcba0d01491af2676d0b3ceb6e53690
  3. ae4a2a2604c6e65995d0d306cb0cd2a515b5791eae3e97bd7358e42ac3b268c7
  4. c975c829e374fe7df303dbffb1c3e80df6c273cc625d4b10d1dce405e61ce34e
  5. faf94375e7054adbd22fa0ead48c4d4d3a748de7b2b9cd5efbc8cf21e012ab03
  6. 8c9c126ddde5463be4c66b848b31cefa5e2e8b034ab906e8158680a170325566
Last event
e6f486cc888e…e24209
Note
Checkpoint text
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1
1104
LUarhlx4E7iZHtDXE5BrFb7xMhoCK404KhBp2snVaGo=

— earthdeck TkCXv/sH/NTGvayZVEMmgP9cZnDpvpCaJ9kK+Cb/ptytbf1au9W9DoMBSvoBcBgV8vaL/MaVF3YesXBKf/3RqhoFSgA=

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