{"finding":{"findingId":"01a0e049-e1b0-77c2-8d6f-e2de0d66be09","status":"published","tier":2,"rule":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5,"revisitHours":18}},"title":"New flaring near Mirninsky, Sakha Republic (Russia)","summary":"1 persistent VIIRS night-time heat cluster(s) near Mirninsky, Sakha Republic (Russia) are not in the flare registry: no site of the VNF 2023 and 2024 annual summaries within 2 km. One was lit 16 of the last 30 nights (max 44.39 MW) at 61.406, 112.8891. It may be a new flare — or a furnace, or a flare too small for EOG's annual product; a later pass confirms the heat, not its cause.","geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[112.889,61.406]},"bbox":[112.55,61.22,113.39,61.69],"aoi":{"id":"flare-rus-61p3n-112p8e","name":"Flare field near Mirninsky, Sakha Republic (Russia) — 22 registered sites","tags":["flaring","oil-gas","discovered","rus","rus_ups_112.8072e_61.3476n","new-flare"]},"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[]},"blindSpots":["Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.","Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.","FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.","Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.","No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.","Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.","The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week.","'New flaring' only means no site of the VNF 2023/2024 annual summaries within 2 km: a flare too small or too cloudy for EOG's annual product, or a new furnace, also qualifies."],"observedAt":"2026-09-25T00:00:00Z","createdAt":"2026-09-27T00:34:19.577Z","updatedAt":"2026-10-01T06:30:19.054Z","createdBy":"system:flaring@1.0","confirmed":{"at":"2026-10-01T00:30:18.328Z","independence":"revisit","signal":{"id":"firms-flaring-flare-rus-61p3n-112p8e-2026-09-30-revisit","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-30T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[112.55,61.22,113.39,61.69],"clusterKm":1,"days":2,"limit":50,"minFrp":5,"minNights":1,"vnf":false}},"summary":"Night-time heat with FRP ≥ 5 MW again at the flagged cluster on a later pass (2026-09-30).","values":{"clusters":1,"maxFrp":9.04}}},"evidence":[{"id":"firms-flaring-flare-rus-61p3n-112p8e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-25T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[112.55,61.22,113.39,61.69],"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"limit":20,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5}},"summary":"4 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-29…2026-09-27); new cluster (no VNF 2023 and 2024 site within 2 km) 16 nights, max 44.39 MW at 61.406, 112.8891.","values":{"hotNightDetections":586,"maxFrp":197.68,"maxNights":16,"newClusters":1,"new_flare":1,"persistentClusters":4,"vnfMatched":3,"vnfTopBcm":1.034,"vnfTopKm":0.12,"vnfYear":2024}},{"id":"firms-flaring-flare-rus-61p3n-112p8e-2026-09-02-2026-10-01","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-30T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[112.55,61.22,113.39,61.69],"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"limit":20,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5}},"summary":"3 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-09-02…2026-10-01); new cluster (no VNF 2023 and 2024 site within 2 km) 13 nights, max 28.89 MW at 61.4059, 112.8889.","values":{"hotNightDetections":401,"maxFrp":197.68,"maxNights":13,"newClusters":1,"new_flare":1,"persistentClusters":3,"vnfMatched":2,"vnfTopBcm":1.034,"vnfTopKm":0.12,"vnfYear":2024}}],"attribution":null,"narration":{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0f510-5be1-76bb-b21d-070fb60858e8","findingId":"01a0e049-e1b0-77c2-8d6f-e2de0d66be09","at":"2026-10-01T01:24:45.153Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"04e5ab114b4d2d8de5676369f2912312bb772ee806f7af44d523520d104b813a","kind":"narrated","text":"Unregistered night-time heat source burning 16 of 30 nights near Mirninsky, Sakha Republic\n\nNight-time infrared passes from the VIIRS sensors on NOAA-20 and NOAA-21 picked out 4 persistent heat clusters in this flare field between 29 August and 27 September 2026. Three match sites in the EOG flare registry (VNF) annual summaries; one does not, with no registered site within 2 km. That cluster, at 61.406, 112.8891, was lit on 16 of 30 nights, peaking at 44.39 MW. A later pass on 30 September again found heat of at least 5 MW at the same spot, at 9.04 MW — confirming the heat is still there, not what is making it.\n\nIt may not be a new flare. Thermal sensors cannot separate a gas flare from an industrial furnace or kiln, and \"new\" here only means absent from the 2023 and 2024 annual registries — a flare too small or too often cloud-covered for those products would also look new. Cold venting of gas is invisible to these sensors entirely. The finding names a place, not an operator.\n\nWhat would change our mind: a matching entry in a later VNF annual summary, high-resolution imagery showing a building or kiln rather than a flare stack, or the heat ending as cloud clears.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Nights lit out of 30 at the unregistered cluster: 16 [firms-flaring-flare-rus-61p3n-112p8e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Peak fire radiative power at that cluster (MW): 44.39 [firms-flaring-flare-rus-61p3n-112p8e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Persistent night-time clusters in the field: 4 [firms-flaring-flare-rus-61p3n-112p8e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Clusters matched to the VNF registry: 3 [firms-flaring-flare-rus-61p3n-112p8e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Unregistered (new) clusters: 1 [firms-flaring-flare-rus-61p3n-112p8e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Peak FRP on the confirming pass, 30 Sep (MW): 9.04 [firms-flaring-flare-rus-61p3n-112p8e-2026-09-30-revisit]\n\nConfidence: medium\nCaveats:\n- Thermal data cannot distinguish a flare from a furnace, refinery or kiln.\n- \"New\" means only: no VNF 2023/2024 registry site within 2 km.\n- FRP is not flared volume; VIIRS can saturate on large flares.\n- Cloudy nights are missed, so persistence counts are a floor.\n- Two passes per night; short or intermittent burns go unseen.\n- Unlit venting of methane is invisible to these sensors.\n- No operator or ownership is identified; this is a location only.\n- The confirming pass verifies continued heat, not its cause.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"c07b387f7eafe699bc72ec758693f20a00d8f1da05b7215be613ace72c684154","transcriptSha256":"42aaafa54ab1b9f344582da0e2f3d62f5333dd94a9eb1d4e6360ff5e47e5c5f7","evidenceRefs":["firms-flaring-flare-rus-61p3n-112p8e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27","firms-flaring-flare-rus-61p3n-112p8e-2026-09-30-revisit"]},"reviews":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0f510-6c82-773c-8749-f477dc380f63","findingId":"01a0e049-e1b0-77c2-8d6f-e2de0d66be09","at":"2026-10-01T01:24:49.410Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"b9063b3725688b7f09596edad03ade99cd8a91ff88c1ca1add2fa6e963b489f1","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":2,"note":"All numeric claims (16/30 nights, 44.39 MW, 4 clusters, 3 matched, 1 new, 9.04 MW confirming pass) match the evidence values exactly; Narration clearly states blind spots: furnace/kiln ambiguity, cloud under-counting, FRP≠volume, cold venting invisibility, no operator attribution, and that confirmation only verifies heat not cause; No individuals or operators are named, only a location/cluster is identified; AOI control flag is false, consistent with this being an active discovery field, not a control site; Appropriately hedged confidence (medium) with falsifiable conditions listed","verdict":"publish"}],"notifications":[],"replies":[],"retracted":null,"history":[{"at":"2026-09-27T00:34:19.577Z","kind":"created","status":"candidate","actor":"system:flaring@1.0"},{"at":"2026-10-01T00:30:18.328Z","kind":"confirmed","status":"confirmed","actor":"system:flaring@1.0"},{"at":"2026-10-01T01:24:45.153Z","kind":"narrated","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-opus-5"},{"at":"2026-10-01T01:24:49.410Z","kind":"reviewed","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"},{"at":"2026-10-01T01:24:49.428Z","kind":"status_changed","status":"published","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"},{"at":"2026-10-01T06:30:19.054Z","kind":"evidence_added","status":"published","actor":"system:flaring@1.0"}],"eventCount":6,"lastEventHash":"e6f486cc888e5d8e36c70578d86a57342b126c9b1c01300868c8334d0fe24209"},"events":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e049-e1b0-7a03-863f-1f76b0062d3b","findingId":"01a0e049-e1b0-77c2-8d6f-e2de0d66be09","at":"2026-09-27T00:34:19.577Z","actor":"system:flaring@1.0","prev":null,"kind":"created","rule":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5,"revisitHours":18}},"title":"New flaring near Mirninsky, Sakha Republic (Russia)","summary":"1 persistent VIIRS night-time heat cluster(s) near Mirninsky, Sakha Republic (Russia) are not in the flare registry: no site of the VNF 2023 and 2024 annual summaries within 2 km. One was lit 16 of the last 30 nights (max 44.39 MW) at 61.406, 112.8891. It may be a new flare — or a furnace, or a flare too small for EOG's annual product; a later pass confirms the heat, not its cause.","tier":2,"geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[112.889,61.406]},"bbox":[112.55,61.22,113.39,61.69],"aoi":{"id":"flare-rus-61p3n-112p8e","name":"Flare field near Mirninsky, Sakha Republic (Russia) — 22 registered sites","tags":["flaring","oil-gas","discovered","rus","rus_ups_112.8072e_61.3476n","new-flare"]},"observedAt":"2026-09-25T00:00:00Z","evidence":[{"id":"firms-flaring-flare-rus-61p3n-112p8e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-25T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[112.55,61.22,113.39,61.69],"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"limit":20,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5}},"summary":"4 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-29…2026-09-27); new cluster (no VNF 2023 and 2024 site within 2 km) 16 nights, max 44.39 MW at 61.406, 112.8891.","values":{"hotNightDetections":586,"maxFrp":197.68,"maxNights":16,"newClusters":1,"new_flare":1,"persistentClusters":4,"vnfMatched":3,"vnfTopBcm":1.034,"vnfTopKm":0.12,"vnfYear":2024}}],"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[]},"blindSpots":["Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.","Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.","FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.","Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.","No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.","Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.","The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week.","'New flaring' only means no site of the VNF 2023/2024 annual summaries within 2 km: a flare too small or too cloudy for EOG's annual product, or a new furnace, also qualifies."]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0f4df-2e61-7d80-9f2b-0b972fdac144","findingId":"01a0e049-e1b0-77c2-8d6f-e2de0d66be09","at":"2026-10-01T00:30:18.328Z","actor":"system:flaring@1.0","prev":"abde3485cee086ba7fae9a6b0bd090b2a2894d5fa59914b3fb5fb8dbc22c81aa","kind":"confirmed","signal":{"id":"firms-flaring-flare-rus-61p3n-112p8e-2026-09-30-revisit","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-30T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[112.55,61.22,113.39,61.69],"clusterKm":1,"days":2,"limit":50,"minFrp":5,"minNights":1,"vnf":false}},"summary":"Night-time heat with FRP ≥ 5 MW again at the flagged cluster on a later pass (2026-09-30).","values":{"clusters":1,"maxFrp":9.04}},"independence":"revisit"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0f510-5be1-76bb-b21d-070fb60858e8","findingId":"01a0e049-e1b0-77c2-8d6f-e2de0d66be09","at":"2026-10-01T01:24:45.153Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"04e5ab114b4d2d8de5676369f2912312bb772ee806f7af44d523520d104b813a","kind":"narrated","text":"Unregistered night-time heat source burning 16 of 30 nights near Mirninsky, Sakha Republic\n\nNight-time infrared passes from the VIIRS sensors on NOAA-20 and NOAA-21 picked out 4 persistent heat clusters in this flare field between 29 August and 27 September 2026. Three match sites in the EOG flare registry (VNF) annual summaries; one does not, with no registered site within 2 km. That cluster, at 61.406, 112.8891, was lit on 16 of 30 nights, peaking at 44.39 MW. A later pass on 30 September again found heat of at least 5 MW at the same spot, at 9.04 MW — confirming the heat is still there, not what is making it.\n\nIt may not be a new flare. Thermal sensors cannot separate a gas flare from an industrial furnace or kiln, and \"new\" here only means absent from the 2023 and 2024 annual registries — a flare too small or too often cloud-covered for those products would also look new. Cold venting of gas is invisible to these sensors entirely. The finding names a place, not an operator.\n\nWhat would change our mind: a matching entry in a later VNF annual summary, high-resolution imagery showing a building or kiln rather than a flare stack, or the heat ending as cloud clears.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Nights lit out of 30 at the unregistered cluster: 16 [firms-flaring-flare-rus-61p3n-112p8e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Peak fire radiative power at that cluster (MW): 44.39 [firms-flaring-flare-rus-61p3n-112p8e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Persistent night-time clusters in the field: 4 [firms-flaring-flare-rus-61p3n-112p8e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Clusters matched to the VNF registry: 3 [firms-flaring-flare-rus-61p3n-112p8e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Unregistered (new) clusters: 1 [firms-flaring-flare-rus-61p3n-112p8e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Peak FRP on the confirming pass, 30 Sep (MW): 9.04 [firms-flaring-flare-rus-61p3n-112p8e-2026-09-30-revisit]\n\nConfidence: medium\nCaveats:\n- Thermal data cannot distinguish a flare from a furnace, refinery or kiln.\n- \"New\" means only: no VNF 2023/2024 registry site within 2 km.\n- FRP is not flared volume; VIIRS can saturate on large flares.\n- Cloudy nights are missed, so persistence counts are a floor.\n- Two passes per night; short or intermittent burns go unseen.\n- Unlit venting of methane is invisible to these sensors.\n- No operator or ownership is identified; this is a location only.\n- The confirming pass verifies continued heat, not its cause.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"c07b387f7eafe699bc72ec758693f20a00d8f1da05b7215be613ace72c684154","transcriptSha256":"42aaafa54ab1b9f344582da0e2f3d62f5333dd94a9eb1d4e6360ff5e47e5c5f7","evidenceRefs":["firms-flaring-flare-rus-61p3n-112p8e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27","firms-flaring-flare-rus-61p3n-112p8e-2026-09-30-revisit"]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0f510-6c82-773c-8749-f477dc380f63","findingId":"01a0e049-e1b0-77c2-8d6f-e2de0d66be09","at":"2026-10-01T01:24:49.410Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"b9063b3725688b7f09596edad03ade99cd8a91ff88c1ca1add2fa6e963b489f1","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":2,"note":"All numeric claims (16/30 nights, 44.39 MW, 4 clusters, 3 matched, 1 new, 9.04 MW confirming pass) match the evidence values exactly; Narration clearly states blind spots: furnace/kiln ambiguity, cloud under-counting, FRP≠volume, cold venting invisibility, no operator attribution, and that confirmation only verifies heat not cause; No individuals or operators are named, only a location/cluster is identified; AOI control flag is false, consistent with this being an active discovery field, not a control site; Appropriately hedged confidence (medium) with falsifiable conditions listed","verdict":"publish"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0f510-6c94-746d-a210-403d265adf66","findingId":"01a0e049-e1b0-77c2-8d6f-e2de0d66be09","at":"2026-10-01T01:24:49.428Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"ad69e11343de5ced95e8fffde1c4464db7c1ae4f01c22ab74569d441c951433c","kind":"status_changed","from":"confirmed","to":"published","reason":"autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)","gates":{"narratedBy":"model:claude-opus-5","reviewedBy":["model:claude-sonnet-5"],"policy":"2026-09-26-autonomous"}},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0f628-be9a-7ab1-af46-b0bc87ba10f3","findingId":"01a0e049-e1b0-77c2-8d6f-e2de0d66be09","at":"2026-10-01T06:30:19.054Z","actor":"system:flaring@1.0","prev":"238f4bb0fa3d4c0a44be4566bb3eedf5d85657885a7f7b173bb5e9283dbb6ea4","kind":"evidence_added","evidence":[{"id":"firms-flaring-flare-rus-61p3n-112p8e-2026-09-02-2026-10-01","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-30T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[112.55,61.22,113.39,61.69],"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"limit":20,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5}},"summary":"3 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-09-02…2026-10-01); new cluster (no VNF 2023 and 2024 site within 2 km) 13 nights, max 28.89 MW at 61.4059, 112.8889.","values":{"hotNightDetections":401,"maxFrp":197.68,"maxNights":13,"newClusters":1,"new_flare":1,"persistentClusters":3,"vnfMatched":2,"vnfTopBcm":1.034,"vnfTopKm":0.12,"vnfYear":2024}}]}],"inclusion":{"index":1096,"leafHash":"45b3c53b206e0599899dac0d7cadf8ab07ccfc7c8e7394353369575abb4c5315","proof":["49ae44d5a8b4476df85c083f1fef020dbde0d0528c325596f44a556ce620d0e8","b5085375af98e42f412159a1017999c55bcba0d01491af2676d0b3ceb6e53690","ae4a2a2604c6e65995d0d306cb0cd2a515b5791eae3e97bd7358e42ac3b268c7","c975c829e374fe7df303dbffb1c3e80df6c273cc625d4b10d1dce405e61ce34e","faf94375e7054adbd22fa0ead48c4d4d3a748de7b2b9cd5efbc8cf21e012ab03","8c9c126ddde5463be4c66b848b31cefa5e2e8b034ab906e8158680a170325566"],"size":1104,"root":"2d46ab865c7813b8991ed0d713906b15bef1321a022b8d382a1069dac9d5686a"}}