TerraKeepKeeping Earth within its limits
Published

Night-time heat at a known flare field near Amadiya, Duhok: one spot lit 24 of 30 nights

Flare field near Amadiya, Duhok (Iraq) — 5 registered sites · seen · published

Satellite night-time heat detections over a registered flare field near Amadiya, Duhok (Iraq) show 2 persistent clusters over the 30 nights ending 27 September 2026, with 85 hot-night detections in total. The most persistent burned on 24 of those nights, peaking at 14.58 MW of fire radiative power. Both clusters sit on sites listed in the independent VIIRS Nightfire 2024 annual flare summary, the nearest just 0.13 km away, with a top-site volume of 0.209 billion cubic metres in that year.

What this is not: it is not a measurement of how much gas is being burned now. Thermal sensors cannot distinguish a gas flare from a furnace, refinery or kiln — only the persistence and the site match point to flaring. The 2024 record proves the location is a known flare, not that it flared this week. Cold venting and unlit methane are invisible here. Cloudy nights hide detections, so persistence may be undercounted, and two passes a night miss short bursts.

What would change our mind: methane sounding from Sentinel-5P or EMIT, a later VNF annual summary, or asset records identifying a non-flare heat source at these coordinates.

Written by AI, then checked by a separate reviewer before publication. Every claim points at the evidence below.

Cloud-free satellite view around Flare field near Amadiya, Duhok (Iraq) — 5 registered sites, with the finding area outlined
36.83°N 43.48°ENASA Blue Marble via GIBS · outline = finding area

What we saw

  • NASA fire detections — 2 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-29…2026-09-27); top cluster 24 nights, max 14.58 MW at 36.7762, 43.3236. (Sep 26, 2026) See the source ↗
  • Gas-flare detections (VIIRS Nightfire) — 2 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.209 BCM, 0.13 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary. (Dec 31, 2024) See the source ↗

What it might not be

  • Thermal detections cannot separate a flare from a furnace, refinery or kiln; the VNF site match is the main argument for flaring.
  • FRP is not flared volume — the sensor can saturate on large flares, and volumes come only from the annual VNF product.
  • Cloud or smoke hides nights, so 24 nights is a floor, not a ceiling.
  • The confirming VNF record is a 2024 annual aggregate: it shows a known flare site, not this month's activity.
  • Unlit venting and cold methane releases would not appear at all.
  • No operator or ownership is identified; a cluster is a place, not a company.
  • Two passes per night around 01:30 local miss short or intermittent burning.
  • Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.
  • Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.
  • FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.
  • Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.
  • No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.
  • Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.
  • The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week.
  • 'New flaring' only means no site of the VNF 2023/2024 annual summaries within 2 km: a flare too small or too cloudy for EOG's annual product, or a new furnace, also qualifies.

What would change our mind

Newer satellite images that show no change, a correction from the data source, or a reply with evidence from the ground. If that happens, the case is marked “Turned out wrong” — in public — and it stays on this site.

Why this was published

Two separate sources agreed — NASA fire detections, then Gas-flare detections (VIIRS Nightfire) — and a reviewer checked the evidence before it went up.

Right of reply

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Ledger id 01a0e03c-ac86-7019-a827-1f33be9f9423

Technical details rule, evidence ids, history, proof
Rule
flaring v1.0
Tier
T2
Tags
flaring, oil-gas, discovered, irq, irq_ups_43.3900e_36.9080n
Confirmed
Yes — independent provider signal, 2026-09-27
Rule FP rate
2.4 % · 1 of 41 decided
Location
36.83°N 43.48°E
Observed
2026-09-26
Opened
2026-09-27 by automatic rule flaring v1.0
  1. candidate
  2. confirmed
  3. published
  4. resolved

Evidence2

alertfirms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt

2 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-29…2026-09-27); top cluster 24 nights, max 14.58 MW at 36.7762, 43.3236.

hotNightDetections 85maxFrp 14.58maxNights 24persistentClusters 2vnfMatched 2vnfTopBcm 0.209vnfTopKm 0.13vnfYear 2024
· flaring v1.0 · firms-flaring-flare-irq-36p9n-43p4e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27
Source ↗
recordeog-vnf-annualConfirming signal

2 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.209 BCM, 0.13 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary.

bcm 0.209vnfMatched 2
· flaring v1.0 · eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irq-36p9n-43p4e
Source ↗

Context

ENSO El Niño · ONI +1.8

Publication gates

  • Evidence — 1 piece from firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt — met
  • Independent confirmation — a different provider (eog-vnf-annual), 2026-09-27 — met
  • Human approval — 1 of 2 needed at tier 2 — not met
  • Narration — AI-drafted by claude-opus-5 — met
Published
2026-09-27 by AI model
Narrated By
AI model
Reviewed By
AI model
Policy
2026-09-26-autonomous
Note
autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)

History5

  1. status changed → publishedAI model
  2. reviewed → confirmedAI model
  3. narrated → confirmedAI model
  4. confirmed → confirmedautomatic rule flaring v1.0
  5. created → candidateautomatic rule flaring v1.0

Verify

Checkpoint
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1 · 474 entries
Signed root
3d5c0e5366ef…1a817d
This case
5 signed events
Leaf
#449 of 474 — this case’s latest event
Leaf hash
7e8ab886dd79…4a2294
Proof
8-hash audit path
  1. 3c2706202a74c47eca424cbbd6427a51e8db98c2000e2a0a3fb6912350c8f46c
  2. 58923ad787249e5f5ad85ef66a1d537748ea6a846267ee85c8a189f3e95d13f8
  3. a046f378cae6cd0fdcadca211eecf79d3c99ec45cd66ab7428fd5bbc00adde6c
  4. 8ea627e22613d9d2794da12d775238c4972cb68f2c469b529dcc10d499e628d7
  5. d53da2d9a52c42afa1145e989e67defee70d1ab136a8450be836068243b2b4c4
  6. cfd8a9689a682dbadf13f73837442d7833d9a97eb16baacdedd92a148869879c
  7. 2ac34e8c0b554e5c34b3c90bfdddd542109474aaf07521b16dfe8be684c3edae
  8. 2334f041f7aa83a5ef6099e0c9511b6242e982238cdf9f30561e5bf0cb2526cc
Last event
c9f205a4d1d0…72dab1
Note
Checkpoint text
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1
474
PVwOU2bv7a9jengu9r9j3dQn4kFgYu/+tvWa/eQagX0=

— earthdeck TkCXv/cvio9EAdvkzlL+Yd2YP4DpbJfAKLucFWpg9Lx0fsSq96qdwI14h8khEO0RbAZGTNPZZvO7btaXxroLJftBzwc=

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