{"finding":{"findingId":"01a0e03c-ac86-7019-a827-1f33be9f9423","status":"published","tier":2,"rule":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5,"revisitHours":18}},"title":"Persistent flaring near Amadiya, Duhok (Iraq): 2 cluster(s), up to 24 nights","summary":"2 VIIRS night-time heat cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW persisted on ≥ 5 of the last 30 nights; the most persistent was lit 24 nights (max 14.58 MW). 2 sit on known VNF 2024 flare sites.","geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[43.324,36.776]},"bbox":[43.27,36.65,43.69,37.01],"aoi":{"id":"flare-irq-36p9n-43p4e","name":"Flare field near Amadiya, Duhok (Iraq) — 5 registered sites","tags":["flaring","oil-gas","discovered","irq","irq_ups_43.3900e_36.9080n"]},"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[]},"blindSpots":["Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.","Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.","FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.","Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.","No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.","Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.","The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week.","'New flaring' only means no site of the VNF 2023/2024 annual summaries within 2 km: a flare too small or too cloudy for EOG's annual product, or a new furnace, also qualifies."],"observedAt":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","createdAt":"2026-09-27T00:20:12.288Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-27T01:29:45.814Z","createdBy":"system:flaring@1.0","confirmed":{"at":"2026-09-27T00:20:12.288Z","independence":"provider","signal":{"id":"eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irq-36p9n-43p4e","kind":"record","source":"eog-vnf-annual","datetime":"2024-12-31T00:00:00Z","href":"https://eogdata.mines.edu/products/vnf/global_gas_flare.html","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"vnfYear":2024}},"summary":"2 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.209 BCM, 0.13 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary.","values":{"bcm":0.209,"vnfMatched":2}}},"evidence":[{"id":"firms-flaring-flare-irq-36p9n-43p4e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[43.27,36.65,43.69,37.01],"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"limit":20,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5}},"summary":"2 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-29…2026-09-27); top cluster 24 nights, max 14.58 MW at 36.7762, 43.3236.","values":{"hotNightDetections":85,"maxFrp":14.58,"maxNights":24,"persistentClusters":2,"vnfMatched":2,"vnfTopBcm":0.209,"vnfTopKm":0.13,"vnfYear":2024}}],"attribution":null,"narration":{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e07a-ee91-721b-be12-34d05bb599a8","findingId":"01a0e03c-ac86-7019-a827-1f33be9f9423","at":"2026-09-27T01:29:07.985Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"b54c295a22b3bc6a759f46b46b8bfae4091d68e8f2ba6528bbf0dcbed9e32f4a","kind":"narrated","text":"Night-time heat at a known flare field near Amadiya, Duhok: one spot lit 24 of 30 nights\n\nSatellite night-time heat detections over a registered flare field near Amadiya, Duhok (Iraq) show 2 persistent clusters over the 30 nights ending 27 September 2026, with 85 hot-night detections in total. The most persistent burned on 24 of those nights, peaking at 14.58 MW of fire radiative power. Both clusters sit on sites listed in the independent VIIRS Nightfire 2024 annual flare summary, the nearest just 0.13 km away, with a top-site volume of 0.209 billion cubic metres in that year.\n\nWhat this is not: it is not a measurement of how much gas is being burned now. Thermal sensors cannot distinguish a gas flare from a furnace, refinery or kiln — only the persistence and the site match point to flaring. The 2024 record proves the location is a known flare, not that it flared this week. Cold venting and unlit methane are invisible here. Cloudy nights hide detections, so persistence may be undercounted, and two passes a night miss short bursts.\n\nWhat would change our mind: methane sounding from Sentinel-5P or EMIT, a later VNF annual summary, or asset records identifying a non-flare heat source at these coordinates.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Persistent night-time clusters: 2 [firms-flaring-flare-irq-36p9n-43p4e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Nights lit, most persistent cluster (of 30): 24 [firms-flaring-flare-irq-36p9n-43p4e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Peak fire radiative power (MW): 14.58 [firms-flaring-flare-irq-36p9n-43p4e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Hot-night detections: 85 [firms-flaring-flare-irq-36p9n-43p4e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Clusters matching VNF 2024 flare sites: 2 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irq-36p9n-43p4e]\n- VNF 2024 top-site volume (BCM): 0.209 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irq-36p9n-43p4e]\n- Distance to nearest VNF site (km): 0.13 [firms-flaring-flare-irq-36p9n-43p4e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n\nConfidence: high\nCaveats:\n- Thermal detections cannot separate a flare from a furnace, refinery or kiln; the VNF site match is the main argument for flaring.\n- FRP is not flared volume — the sensor can saturate on large flares, and volumes come only from the annual VNF product.\n- Cloud or smoke hides nights, so 24 nights is a floor, not a ceiling.\n- The confirming VNF record is a 2024 annual aggregate: it shows a known flare site, not this month's activity.\n- Unlit venting and cold methane releases would not appear at all.\n- No operator or ownership is identified; a cluster is a place, not a company.\n- Two passes per night around 01:30 local miss short or intermittent burning.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"c71f7c973624daf587630ca8841cd480ad2c71ae1118ff6bca5e5f4e2a9b920f","transcriptSha256":"4bb39f3c346e960221dfb9f707c95284cd44a087c4922246b0e8409f5d09fa44","evidenceRefs":["firms-flaring-flare-irq-36p9n-43p4e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27","eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irq-36p9n-43p4e"]},"reviews":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e07b-8250-782e-afcd-ac7a196815ec","findingId":"01a0e03c-ac86-7019-a827-1f33be9f9423","at":"2026-09-27T01:29:45.808Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"4093f6a45bf9d7cf3011f7fbb47a35d9c2d47d1abd9c204bb79c81eb14710fba","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":2,"note":"All key numbers (2 clusters, 24 nights, 14.58 MW, 85 detections, VNF match count, 0.209 BCM, 0.13 km) are drawn directly from the evidence and confirmation records with no embellishment.; Narration explicitly states the rule cannot distinguish flare from furnace/refinery/kiln, notes the VNF match is a 2024 annual aggregate (not proof of current activity), flags cloud under-count, FRP-vs-volume limits, invisible unlit venting, and lack of operator attribution — covering essentially all listed blind spots.; No personal names or identifiable individuals appear; only site/location and provider attributions are used.; The AOI (flare-irq-36p9n-43p4e) is a real, discovered oil-gas flaring site tagged 'flaring/oil-gas/discovered/irq', not tagged 'control', so this is a genuine finding rather than a control-site false-positive test — appropriate for publication.","verdict":"publish"}],"notifications":[],"replies":[],"retracted":null,"history":[{"at":"2026-09-27T00:20:12.288Z","kind":"created","status":"candidate","actor":"system:flaring@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-27T00:20:12.288Z","kind":"confirmed","status":"confirmed","actor":"system:flaring@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-27T01:29:07.985Z","kind":"narrated","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-opus-5"},{"at":"2026-09-27T01:29:45.808Z","kind":"reviewed","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"},{"at":"2026-09-27T01:29:45.814Z","kind":"status_changed","status":"published","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"}],"eventCount":5,"lastEventHash":"c9f205a4d1d02da6db738da93c4817a62a06cf278db3dadb28317a285672dab1"},"events":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e03c-ac86-7517-a7c8-cd968031886e","findingId":"01a0e03c-ac86-7019-a827-1f33be9f9423","at":"2026-09-27T00:20:12.288Z","actor":"system:flaring@1.0","prev":null,"kind":"created","rule":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5,"revisitHours":18}},"title":"Persistent flaring near Amadiya, Duhok (Iraq): 2 cluster(s), up to 24 nights","summary":"2 VIIRS night-time heat cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW persisted on ≥ 5 of the last 30 nights; the most persistent was lit 24 nights (max 14.58 MW). 2 sit on known VNF 2024 flare sites.","tier":2,"geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[43.324,36.776]},"bbox":[43.27,36.65,43.69,37.01],"aoi":{"id":"flare-irq-36p9n-43p4e","name":"Flare field near Amadiya, Duhok (Iraq) — 5 registered sites","tags":["flaring","oil-gas","discovered","irq","irq_ups_43.3900e_36.9080n"]},"observedAt":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","evidence":[{"id":"firms-flaring-flare-irq-36p9n-43p4e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[43.27,36.65,43.69,37.01],"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"limit":20,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5}},"summary":"2 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-29…2026-09-27); top cluster 24 nights, max 14.58 MW at 36.7762, 43.3236.","values":{"hotNightDetections":85,"maxFrp":14.58,"maxNights":24,"persistentClusters":2,"vnfMatched":2,"vnfTopBcm":0.209,"vnfTopKm":0.13,"vnfYear":2024}}],"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[]},"blindSpots":["Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.","Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.","FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.","Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.","No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.","Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.","The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week.","'New flaring' only means no site of the VNF 2023/2024 annual summaries within 2 km: a flare too small or too cloudy for EOG's annual product, or a new furnace, also qualifies."]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e03c-ac8a-703f-8cef-49379b6e0ef3","findingId":"01a0e03c-ac86-7019-a827-1f33be9f9423","at":"2026-09-27T00:20:12.288Z","actor":"system:flaring@1.0","prev":"5c3fe0e5248e32faada85781f0a5613ad69193e3acbdb19444548e1166f2ef88","kind":"confirmed","signal":{"id":"eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irq-36p9n-43p4e","kind":"record","source":"eog-vnf-annual","datetime":"2024-12-31T00:00:00Z","href":"https://eogdata.mines.edu/products/vnf/global_gas_flare.html","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"vnfYear":2024}},"summary":"2 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.209 BCM, 0.13 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary.","values":{"bcm":0.209,"vnfMatched":2}},"independence":"provider"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e07a-ee91-721b-be12-34d05bb599a8","findingId":"01a0e03c-ac86-7019-a827-1f33be9f9423","at":"2026-09-27T01:29:07.985Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"b54c295a22b3bc6a759f46b46b8bfae4091d68e8f2ba6528bbf0dcbed9e32f4a","kind":"narrated","text":"Night-time heat at a known flare field near Amadiya, Duhok: one spot lit 24 of 30 nights\n\nSatellite night-time heat detections over a registered flare field near Amadiya, Duhok (Iraq) show 2 persistent clusters over the 30 nights ending 27 September 2026, with 85 hot-night detections in total. The most persistent burned on 24 of those nights, peaking at 14.58 MW of fire radiative power. Both clusters sit on sites listed in the independent VIIRS Nightfire 2024 annual flare summary, the nearest just 0.13 km away, with a top-site volume of 0.209 billion cubic metres in that year.\n\nWhat this is not: it is not a measurement of how much gas is being burned now. Thermal sensors cannot distinguish a gas flare from a furnace, refinery or kiln — only the persistence and the site match point to flaring. The 2024 record proves the location is a known flare, not that it flared this week. Cold venting and unlit methane are invisible here. Cloudy nights hide detections, so persistence may be undercounted, and two passes a night miss short bursts.\n\nWhat would change our mind: methane sounding from Sentinel-5P or EMIT, a later VNF annual summary, or asset records identifying a non-flare heat source at these coordinates.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Persistent night-time clusters: 2 [firms-flaring-flare-irq-36p9n-43p4e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Nights lit, most persistent cluster (of 30): 24 [firms-flaring-flare-irq-36p9n-43p4e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Peak fire radiative power (MW): 14.58 [firms-flaring-flare-irq-36p9n-43p4e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Hot-night detections: 85 [firms-flaring-flare-irq-36p9n-43p4e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n- Clusters matching VNF 2024 flare sites: 2 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irq-36p9n-43p4e]\n- VNF 2024 top-site volume (BCM): 0.209 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irq-36p9n-43p4e]\n- Distance to nearest VNF site (km): 0.13 [firms-flaring-flare-irq-36p9n-43p4e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27]\n\nConfidence: high\nCaveats:\n- Thermal detections cannot separate a flare from a furnace, refinery or kiln; the VNF site match is the main argument for flaring.\n- FRP is not flared volume — the sensor can saturate on large flares, and volumes come only from the annual VNF product.\n- Cloud or smoke hides nights, so 24 nights is a floor, not a ceiling.\n- The confirming VNF record is a 2024 annual aggregate: it shows a known flare site, not this month's activity.\n- Unlit venting and cold methane releases would not appear at all.\n- No operator or ownership is identified; a cluster is a place, not a company.\n- Two passes per night around 01:30 local miss short or intermittent burning.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"c71f7c973624daf587630ca8841cd480ad2c71ae1118ff6bca5e5f4e2a9b920f","transcriptSha256":"4bb39f3c346e960221dfb9f707c95284cd44a087c4922246b0e8409f5d09fa44","evidenceRefs":["firms-flaring-flare-irq-36p9n-43p4e-2026-08-29-2026-09-27","eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irq-36p9n-43p4e"]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e07b-8250-782e-afcd-ac7a196815ec","findingId":"01a0e03c-ac86-7019-a827-1f33be9f9423","at":"2026-09-27T01:29:45.808Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"4093f6a45bf9d7cf3011f7fbb47a35d9c2d47d1abd9c204bb79c81eb14710fba","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":2,"note":"All key numbers (2 clusters, 24 nights, 14.58 MW, 85 detections, VNF match count, 0.209 BCM, 0.13 km) are drawn directly from the evidence and confirmation records with no embellishment.; Narration explicitly states the rule cannot distinguish flare from furnace/refinery/kiln, notes the VNF match is a 2024 annual aggregate (not proof of current activity), flags cloud under-count, FRP-vs-volume limits, invisible unlit venting, and lack of operator attribution — covering essentially all listed blind spots.; No personal names or identifiable individuals appear; only site/location and provider attributions are used.; The AOI (flare-irq-36p9n-43p4e) is a real, discovered oil-gas flaring site tagged 'flaring/oil-gas/discovered/irq', not tagged 'control', so this is a genuine finding rather than a control-site false-positive test — appropriate for publication.","verdict":"publish"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e07b-8255-7c3c-b832-e20aff3444fd","findingId":"01a0e03c-ac86-7019-a827-1f33be9f9423","at":"2026-09-27T01:29:45.814Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"4f193370f680d2012fdff27897068fd4f81644868b8bd8832de8f7427528cc8d","kind":"status_changed","from":"confirmed","to":"published","reason":"autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)","gates":{"narratedBy":"model:claude-opus-5","reviewedBy":["model:claude-sonnet-5"],"policy":"2026-09-26-autonomous"}}],"inclusion":{"index":449,"leafHash":"7e8ab886dd79a4445457cccaaeaa60d4a37172cd6bc025c2aa4659afed4a2294","proof":["3c2706202a74c47eca424cbbd6427a51e8db98c2000e2a0a3fb6912350c8f46c","58923ad787249e5f5ad85ef66a1d537748ea6a846267ee85c8a189f3e95d13f8","a046f378cae6cd0fdcadca211eecf79d3c99ec45cd66ab7428fd5bbc00adde6c","8ea627e22613d9d2794da12d775238c4972cb68f2c469b529dcc10d499e628d7","d53da2d9a52c42afa1145e989e67defee70d1ab136a8450be836068243b2b4c4","cfd8a9689a682dbadf13f73837442d7833d9a97eb16baacdedd92a148869879c","2ac34e8c0b554e5c34b3c90bfdddd542109474aaf07521b16dfe8be684c3edae","2334f041f7aa83a5ef6099e0c9511b6242e982238cdf9f30561e5bf0cb2526cc"],"size":474,"root":"3d5c0e5366efedaf637a782ef6bf63ddd427e2416062effeb6f59afde41a817d"}}