TerraKeepKeeping Earth within its limits
Published

Two heat sources burned through the night for up to 28 of 30 nights at a known Iranian flare field

Flare field IRN 25.53, 53.15 (2 VNF sites) · seen · published

Night-time infrared satellite passes (VIIRS on NOAA-20 and NOAA-21) picked up 2 persistent heat clusters inside the flare field near 25.53N, 53.15E between 28 August and 26 September 2026. Together they produced 145 hot-night detections; the most persistent cluster was lit on 28 of the 30 nights, with a peak fire radiative power of 40.03 MW. Both clusters sit on sites already listed in the 2024 VIIRS Nightfire annual flare summary, the nearest just 0.15 km away, where the top site was credited with 0.401 billion cubic metres — an independent, provider-level match.

What this is not: it is not a measurement of how much gas burned this month, and it is not proof of new activity. Thermal sensors cannot separate a gas flare from a refinery furnace or kiln, and FRP saturates on large flares. The 2024 record only shows the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week. Unlit venting would be invisible here. The El Niño phase (ONI 1.8) and cloud cover affect how many nights are seen, not whether a flare exists. No operator is identified.

Written by AI, then checked by a separate reviewer before publication. Every claim points at the evidence below.

Cloud-free satellite view around Flare field IRN 25.53, 53.15 (2 VNF sites), with the finding area outlined
25.52°N 53.14°ENASA Blue Marble via GIBS · outline = finding area

What we saw

  • NASA fire detections — 2 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-28…2026-09-26); top cluster 28 nights, max 40.03 MW at 25.5333, 53.1472. (Sep 25, 2026) See the source ↗
  • Gas-flare detections (VIIRS Nightfire) — 2 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.401 BCM, 0.15 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary. (Dec 31, 2024) See the source ↗

What it might not be

  • FRP is not volume: the sensor saturates on big flares; only the VNF annual summary gives burned volumes.
  • A flare cannot be told apart from a furnace, refinery or kiln by heat alone — persistence plus the VNF site match is the argument.
  • Cloud or smoke hides nights, so night counts are a floor, not a ceiling.
  • Only two passes per night (~01:30 local); short or intermittent burning between passes is missed.
  • Unlit venting and cold methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors; pair with S5P/EMIT methane data.
  • The VNF confirmation is a 2024 annual aggregate — it proves a known flare site, not this month's activity.
  • No operator or owner is identified; a cluster is a place, not a company.
  • Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.
  • Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.
  • FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.
  • Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.
  • No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.
  • Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.
  • The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week.

What would change our mind

Newer satellite images that show no change, a correction from the data source, or a reply with evidence from the ground. If that happens, the case is marked “Turned out wrong” — in public — and it stays on this site.

Why this was published

Two separate sources agreed — NASA fire detections, then Gas-flare detections (VIIRS Nightfire) — and a reviewer checked the evidence before it went up.

Right of reply

If a case names or affects you, you can reply. A reply channel that keeps both sides on record is being set up; until then, every case page carries its ledger id so a reply can be attached to it.

Ledger id 01a0df8c-11e9-7823-81ed-4579df49e920

Technical details rule, evidence ids, history, proof
Rule
flaring v1.0
Tier
T2
Tags
flaring, oil-gas, discovered, irn, irn_ups_53.1487e_25.5337n
Confirmed
Yes — independent provider signal, 2026-09-26
Rule FP rate
9.1 % · 1 of 11 decided
Location
25.52°N 53.14°E
Observed
2026-09-25
Opened
2026-09-26 by automatic rule flaring v1.0
  1. candidate
  2. confirmed
  3. published
  4. resolved

Evidence2

alertfirms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt

2 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-28…2026-09-26); top cluster 28 nights, max 40.03 MW at 25.5333, 53.1472.

hotNightDetections 145maxFrp 40.03maxNights 28persistentClusters 2vnfMatched 2vnfTopBcm 0.401vnfTopKm 0.15vnfYear 2024
· flaring v1.0 · firms-flaring-flare-irn-25p5n-53p1e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26
Source ↗
recordeog-vnf-annualConfirming signal

2 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.401 BCM, 0.15 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary.

bcm 0.401vnfMatched 2
· flaring v1.0 · eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-25p5n-53p1e
Source ↗

Context

ENSO El Niño · ONI +1.8

Publication gates

  • Evidence — 1 piece from firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt — met
  • Independent confirmation — a different provider (eog-vnf-annual), 2026-09-26 — met
  • Human approval — 1 of 2 needed at tier 2 — not met
  • Narration — AI-drafted by claude-opus-5 — met
Published
2026-09-26 by AI model
Narrated By
AI model
Reviewed By
AI model
Policy
2026-09-26-autonomous
Note
autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)

History5

  1. status changed → publishedAI model
  2. reviewed → confirmedAI model
  3. narrated → confirmedAI model
  4. confirmed → confirmedautomatic rule flaring v1.0
  5. created → candidateautomatic rule flaring v1.0

Verify

Checkpoint
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1 · 164 entries
Signed root
dee55129d595…ff9240
This case
5 signed events
Leaf
#142 of 164 — this case’s latest event
Leaf hash
a49b619b884c…eaba1f
Proof
7-hash audit path
  1. 46189bd4186374f84e54a10463038a26024dff2158a418f707645efd737ebea6
  2. 98d3f07563983cefa2d96baaccdb93cde71cb8929ec68f262782a7554ac62576
  3. 5f8baa74966003f8abc067020ad6ff1c537ac5fcae420acd584f2537fd639138
  4. 78d4a217127a8d785683c1be031cba2e901cbe093b1ae77f14424b62c88b2c67
  5. c5791be43a93742281091b42839887266fcf328111a065fdb199bd6029e8a58f
  6. ea90af85b57fc2296d71cae3061ddb7573bdaad07fb8fd70a326eb6bfa8a0b0d
  7. 1e6b35b77ca24da32136c1f20f9724e4c9e881569d9550e8b5024cf584b97d34
Last event
81f845ae63a4…bba020
Note
Checkpoint text
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1
164
3uVRKdWVACCMvWGLLrloPsdgo2FcJrOlejRp8Ir/kkA=

— earthdeck TkCXv1RvXauCpUiWuk11ZCqwdoBJwbds1eETDZCkAWnWOFvcgHuHpllz0Q9kEbLx6iBG7M0UPs+Ejc/MfFN6WPWxNQA=

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