{"finding":{"findingId":"01a0df8c-11e9-7823-81ed-4579df49e920","status":"published","tier":2,"rule":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5,"revisitHours":18}},"title":"Persistent flaring in Flare field IRN 25.53, 53.15 (2 VNF sites): 2 cluster(s), up to 28 nights","summary":"2 VIIRS night-time heat cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW persisted on ≥ 5 of the last 30 nights; the most persistent was lit 28 nights (max 40.03 MW). 2 sit on known VNF 2024 flare sites.","geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[53.147,25.533]},"bbox":[53.04,25.41,53.25,25.63],"aoi":{"id":"flare-irn-25p5n-53p1e","name":"Flare field IRN 25.53, 53.15 (2 VNF sites)","tags":["flaring","oil-gas","discovered","irn","irn_ups_53.1487e_25.5337n"]},"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[]},"blindSpots":["Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.","Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.","FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.","Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.","No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.","Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.","The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week."],"observedAt":"2026-09-25T00:00:00Z","createdAt":"2026-09-26T21:07:01.490Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-26T21:22:30.137Z","createdBy":"system:flaring@1.0","confirmed":{"at":"2026-09-26T21:07:01.490Z","independence":"provider","signal":{"id":"eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-25p5n-53p1e","kind":"record","source":"eog-vnf-annual","datetime":"2024-12-31T00:00:00Z","href":"https://eogdata.mines.edu/products/vnf/global_gas_flare.html","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"vnfYear":2024}},"summary":"2 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.401 BCM, 0.15 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary.","values":{"bcm":0.401,"vnfMatched":2}}},"evidence":[{"id":"firms-flaring-flare-irn-25p5n-53p1e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-25T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[53.04,25.41,53.25,25.63],"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"limit":20,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5}},"summary":"2 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-28…2026-09-26); top cluster 28 nights, max 40.03 MW at 25.5333, 53.1472.","values":{"hotNightDetections":145,"maxFrp":40.03,"maxNights":28,"persistentClusters":2,"vnfMatched":2,"vnfTopBcm":0.401,"vnfTopKm":0.15,"vnfYear":2024}}],"attribution":null,"narration":{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df99-1093-7138-91df-64599569d32d","findingId":"01a0df8c-11e9-7823-81ed-4579df49e920","at":"2026-09-26T21:22:25.555Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"56634fb162a8a4ff8411272d59c509af1c3477bc7cc4abaeefaedc31618160c0","kind":"narrated","text":"Two heat sources burned through the night for up to 28 of 30 nights at a known Iranian flare field\n\nNight-time infrared satellite passes (VIIRS on NOAA-20 and NOAA-21) picked up 2 persistent heat clusters inside the flare field near 25.53N, 53.15E between 28 August and 26 September 2026. Together they produced 145 hot-night detections; the most persistent cluster was lit on 28 of the 30 nights, with a peak fire radiative power of 40.03 MW. Both clusters sit on sites already listed in the 2024 VIIRS Nightfire annual flare summary, the nearest just 0.15 km away, where the top site was credited with 0.401 billion cubic metres — an independent, provider-level match.\n\nWhat this is not: it is not a measurement of how much gas burned this month, and it is not proof of new activity. Thermal sensors cannot separate a gas flare from a refinery furnace or kiln, and FRP saturates on large flares. The 2024 record only shows the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week. Unlit venting would be invisible here. The El Niño phase (ONI 1.8) and cloud cover affect how many nights are seen, not whether a flare exists. No operator is identified.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Persistent night-time heat clusters: 2 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-25p5n-53p1e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Nights lit (most persistent cluster, of 30): 28 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-25p5n-53p1e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Peak fire radiative power (MW): 40.03 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-25p5n-53p1e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Hot-night detections in 30 days: 145 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-25p5n-53p1e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Clusters matching 2024 VNF flare sites: 2 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-25p5n-53p1e]\n- Top VNF site volume, 2024 (BCM): 0.401 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-25p5n-53p1e]\n- Distance to nearest VNF site (km): 0.15 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-25p5n-53p1e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n\nConfidence: high\nCaveats:\n- FRP is not volume: the sensor saturates on big flares; only the VNF annual summary gives burned volumes.\n- A flare cannot be told apart from a furnace, refinery or kiln by heat alone — persistence plus the VNF site match is the argument.\n- Cloud or smoke hides nights, so night counts are a floor, not a ceiling.\n- Only two passes per night (~01:30 local); short or intermittent burning between passes is missed.\n- Unlit venting and cold methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors; pair with S5P/EMIT methane data.\n- The VNF confirmation is a 2024 annual aggregate — it proves a known flare site, not this month's activity.\n- No operator or owner is identified; a cluster is a place, not a company.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"d1563f486bdd1f01a831f605280044c6009f9b6ed9989833b60083cc61705341","transcriptSha256":"560aa16d9ddd71a43b064c158dfca1858f2688c344a78d6eac4b9045fd92328e","evidenceRefs":["firms-flaring-flare-irn-25p5n-53p1e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26","eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-25p5n-53p1e"]},"reviews":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df99-2276-7c5a-9d24-587e3ed92663","findingId":"01a0df8c-11e9-7823-81ed-4579df49e920","at":"2026-09-26T21:22:30.134Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"95e7136f6f63130036807ca3b85e3e48cb8c3d5ccb2214594c3cb011f814aa75","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":2,"note":"All numeric claims (145 detections, 40.03 MW, 28/30 nights, 0.401 BCM, 0.15 km, 2 clusters) match the evidence and confirmation records exactly; Narration explicitly covers blind spots: sensor cannot distinguish flare from furnace/kiln, FRP saturation, cloud undercounting, pass-frequency gaps, unlit venting invisibility, stale annual VNF match, no operator attribution; No individuals or companies are named, only a site location and public VNF dataset; AOI control tag is false, correctly not a control site, consistent with publishing a real flaring finding","verdict":"publish"}],"notifications":[],"replies":[],"retracted":null,"history":[{"at":"2026-09-26T21:07:01.490Z","kind":"created","status":"candidate","actor":"system:flaring@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-26T21:07:01.490Z","kind":"confirmed","status":"confirmed","actor":"system:flaring@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-26T21:22:25.555Z","kind":"narrated","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-opus-5"},{"at":"2026-09-26T21:22:30.134Z","kind":"reviewed","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"},{"at":"2026-09-26T21:22:30.137Z","kind":"status_changed","status":"published","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"}],"eventCount":5,"lastEventHash":"81f845ae63a427c029ce6a7ef8658ac2cdafc91906e861736ad92482d0bba020"},"events":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df8c-11e9-7cf8-a3b7-45b4cf08d161","findingId":"01a0df8c-11e9-7823-81ed-4579df49e920","at":"2026-09-26T21:07:01.490Z","actor":"system:flaring@1.0","prev":null,"kind":"created","rule":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5,"revisitHours":18}},"title":"Persistent flaring in Flare field IRN 25.53, 53.15 (2 VNF sites): 2 cluster(s), up to 28 nights","summary":"2 VIIRS night-time heat cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW persisted on ≥ 5 of the last 30 nights; the most persistent was lit 28 nights (max 40.03 MW). 2 sit on known VNF 2024 flare sites.","tier":2,"geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[53.147,25.533]},"bbox":[53.04,25.41,53.25,25.63],"aoi":{"id":"flare-irn-25p5n-53p1e","name":"Flare field IRN 25.53, 53.15 (2 VNF sites)","tags":["flaring","oil-gas","discovered","irn","irn_ups_53.1487e_25.5337n"]},"observedAt":"2026-09-25T00:00:00Z","evidence":[{"id":"firms-flaring-flare-irn-25p5n-53p1e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-25T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[53.04,25.41,53.25,25.63],"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"limit":20,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5}},"summary":"2 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-28…2026-09-26); top cluster 28 nights, max 40.03 MW at 25.5333, 53.1472.","values":{"hotNightDetections":145,"maxFrp":40.03,"maxNights":28,"persistentClusters":2,"vnfMatched":2,"vnfTopBcm":0.401,"vnfTopKm":0.15,"vnfYear":2024}}],"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[]},"blindSpots":["Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.","Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.","FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.","Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.","No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.","Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.","The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week."]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df8c-11f0-7aa8-974d-1e3cc60d4ad3","findingId":"01a0df8c-11e9-7823-81ed-4579df49e920","at":"2026-09-26T21:07:01.490Z","actor":"system:flaring@1.0","prev":"7756ce984d5ed33ccf885c8e08675817f99f0e74ede7786cebf5df24200f4610","kind":"confirmed","signal":{"id":"eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-25p5n-53p1e","kind":"record","source":"eog-vnf-annual","datetime":"2024-12-31T00:00:00Z","href":"https://eogdata.mines.edu/products/vnf/global_gas_flare.html","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"vnfYear":2024}},"summary":"2 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.401 BCM, 0.15 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary.","values":{"bcm":0.401,"vnfMatched":2}},"independence":"provider"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df99-1093-7138-91df-64599569d32d","findingId":"01a0df8c-11e9-7823-81ed-4579df49e920","at":"2026-09-26T21:22:25.555Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"56634fb162a8a4ff8411272d59c509af1c3477bc7cc4abaeefaedc31618160c0","kind":"narrated","text":"Two heat sources burned through the night for up to 28 of 30 nights at a known Iranian flare field\n\nNight-time infrared satellite passes (VIIRS on NOAA-20 and NOAA-21) picked up 2 persistent heat clusters inside the flare field near 25.53N, 53.15E between 28 August and 26 September 2026. Together they produced 145 hot-night detections; the most persistent cluster was lit on 28 of the 30 nights, with a peak fire radiative power of 40.03 MW. Both clusters sit on sites already listed in the 2024 VIIRS Nightfire annual flare summary, the nearest just 0.15 km away, where the top site was credited with 0.401 billion cubic metres — an independent, provider-level match.\n\nWhat this is not: it is not a measurement of how much gas burned this month, and it is not proof of new activity. Thermal sensors cannot separate a gas flare from a refinery furnace or kiln, and FRP saturates on large flares. The 2024 record only shows the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week. Unlit venting would be invisible here. The El Niño phase (ONI 1.8) and cloud cover affect how many nights are seen, not whether a flare exists. No operator is identified.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Persistent night-time heat clusters: 2 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-25p5n-53p1e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Nights lit (most persistent cluster, of 30): 28 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-25p5n-53p1e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Peak fire radiative power (MW): 40.03 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-25p5n-53p1e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Hot-night detections in 30 days: 145 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-25p5n-53p1e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Clusters matching 2024 VNF flare sites: 2 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-25p5n-53p1e]\n- Top VNF site volume, 2024 (BCM): 0.401 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-25p5n-53p1e]\n- Distance to nearest VNF site (km): 0.15 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-25p5n-53p1e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n\nConfidence: high\nCaveats:\n- FRP is not volume: the sensor saturates on big flares; only the VNF annual summary gives burned volumes.\n- A flare cannot be told apart from a furnace, refinery or kiln by heat alone — persistence plus the VNF site match is the argument.\n- Cloud or smoke hides nights, so night counts are a floor, not a ceiling.\n- Only two passes per night (~01:30 local); short or intermittent burning between passes is missed.\n- Unlit venting and cold methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors; pair with S5P/EMIT methane data.\n- The VNF confirmation is a 2024 annual aggregate — it proves a known flare site, not this month's activity.\n- No operator or owner is identified; a cluster is a place, not a company.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"d1563f486bdd1f01a831f605280044c6009f9b6ed9989833b60083cc61705341","transcriptSha256":"560aa16d9ddd71a43b064c158dfca1858f2688c344a78d6eac4b9045fd92328e","evidenceRefs":["firms-flaring-flare-irn-25p5n-53p1e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26","eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-25p5n-53p1e"]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df99-2276-7c5a-9d24-587e3ed92663","findingId":"01a0df8c-11e9-7823-81ed-4579df49e920","at":"2026-09-26T21:22:30.134Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"95e7136f6f63130036807ca3b85e3e48cb8c3d5ccb2214594c3cb011f814aa75","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":2,"note":"All numeric claims (145 detections, 40.03 MW, 28/30 nights, 0.401 BCM, 0.15 km, 2 clusters) match the evidence and confirmation records exactly; Narration explicitly covers blind spots: sensor cannot distinguish flare from furnace/kiln, FRP saturation, cloud undercounting, pass-frequency gaps, unlit venting invisibility, stale annual VNF match, no operator attribution; No individuals or companies are named, only a site location and public VNF dataset; AOI control tag is false, correctly not a control site, consistent with publishing a real flaring finding","verdict":"publish"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df99-2279-75dc-9bff-fe33539809b9","findingId":"01a0df8c-11e9-7823-81ed-4579df49e920","at":"2026-09-26T21:22:30.137Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"9f1fdf730a8253358cd2d24cfbb41e3ffe33278b73e40df9a93f671d3394d27f","kind":"status_changed","from":"confirmed","to":"published","reason":"autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)","gates":{"narratedBy":"model:claude-opus-5","reviewedBy":["model:claude-sonnet-5"],"policy":"2026-09-26-autonomous"}}],"inclusion":{"index":142,"leafHash":"a49b619b884c666b06982c3c668450cc1b3a441c30e94cb3910b88633deaba1f","proof":["46189bd4186374f84e54a10463038a26024dff2158a418f707645efd737ebea6","98d3f07563983cefa2d96baaccdb93cde71cb8929ec68f262782a7554ac62576","5f8baa74966003f8abc067020ad6ff1c537ac5fcae420acd584f2537fd639138","78d4a217127a8d785683c1be031cba2e901cbe093b1ae77f14424b62c88b2c67","c5791be43a93742281091b42839887266fcf328111a065fdb199bd6029e8a58f","ea90af85b57fc2296d71cae3061ddb7573bdaad07fb8fd70a326eb6bfa8a0b0d","1e6b35b77ca24da32136c1f20f9724e4c9e881569d9550e8b5024cf584b97d34"],"size":164,"root":"dee55129d59500208cbd618b2eb9683ec760a3615c26b3a57a3469f08aff9240"}}