TerraKeepKeeping Earth within its limits
Published

Night-time heat at a known Siberian flare site: one cluster lit 18 of 30 nights, peaking at 36.73 MW

Flare field RUS 57.95, 107.08 (27 VNF sites) · seen · published

Satellite night-time heat detections over the flare field at roughly 57.95N, 107.08E show one persistent hot cluster. Between 28 August and 26 September 2026 it was lit on 18 of the 30 nights, with a peak fire radiative power of 36.73 MW and 157 hot-night detections in the area overall. Independently, the cluster sits 0.54 km from a site listed in the Earth Observation Group's VIIRS Nightfire annual flare summary for 2024, where that site was credited with 0.157 billion cubic metres of flared gas.

What this is not: thermal sensors cannot separate a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery or kiln, and heat is not volume — the sensor can saturate, and the flared-volume figure comes only from an earlier annual summary, which proves the site is a known flare but not what burned this month. Unlit venting and cold methane leaks would be invisible here. No operator or owner is identified; this is a place, not a company.

What would change our mind: a cloud-free month with the cluster dark, a ground or registry record showing a different heat source, or methane observations pointing to venting rather than burning.

Written by AI, then checked by a separate reviewer before publication. Every claim points at the evidence below.

Cloud-free satellite view around Flare field RUS 57.95, 107.08 (27 VNF sites), with the finding area outlined
58.06°N 106.89°ENASA Blue Marble via GIBS · outline = finding area

What we saw

  • NASA fire detections — 1 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-28…2026-09-26); top cluster 18 nights, max 36.73 MW at 58.0946, 106.5585. (Sep 25, 2026) See the source ↗
  • Gas-flare detections (VIIRS Nightfire) — 1 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.157 BCM, 0.54 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary. (Dec 31, 2024) See the source ↗

What it might not be

  • Thermal data cannot distinguish a flare from a furnace, kiln or other industrial heat source.
  • Cloud or smoke hides nights, so persistence counts are a floor, not a ceiling.
  • Fire radiative power is not flared volume; the sensor can saturate on large flares.
  • The 0.157 BCM figure is a 2024 annual aggregate, not this month's output.
  • Unlit venting and cold methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors.
  • Only two satellite passes per night; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed.
  • No operator or ownership attribution is made or implied.
  • Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.
  • Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.
  • FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.
  • Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.
  • No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.
  • Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.
  • The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week.

What would change our mind

Newer satellite images that show no change, a correction from the data source, or a reply with evidence from the ground. If that happens, the case is marked “Turned out wrong” — in public — and it stays on this site.

Why this was published

Two separate sources agreed — NASA fire detections, then Gas-flare detections (VIIRS Nightfire) — and a reviewer checked the evidence before it went up.

Right of reply

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Ledger id 01a0df8b-d019-740b-a8d3-c6107acfc13f

Technical details rule, evidence ids, history, proof
Rule
flaring v1.0
Tier
T2
Tags
flaring, oil-gas, discovered, rus, rus_ups_107.0756e_57.9530n
Confirmed
Yes — independent provider signal, 2026-09-26
Rule FP rate
9.1 % · 1 of 11 decided
Location
58.06°N 106.89°E
Observed
2026-09-25
Opened
2026-09-26 by automatic rule flaring v1.0
  1. candidate
  2. confirmed
  3. published
  4. resolved

Evidence2

alertfirms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt

1 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-28…2026-09-26); top cluster 18 nights, max 36.73 MW at 58.0946, 106.5585.

hotNightDetections 157maxFrp 36.73maxNights 18persistentClusters 1vnfMatched 1vnfTopBcm 0.157vnfTopKm 0.54vnfYear 2024
· flaring v1.0 · firms-flaring-flare-rus-58p0n-107p1e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26
Source ↗
recordeog-vnf-annualConfirming signal

1 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.157 BCM, 0.54 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary.

bcm 0.157vnfMatched 1
· flaring v1.0 · eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-rus-58p0n-107p1e
Source ↗

Context

ENSO El Niño · ONI +1.8

Publication gates

  • Evidence — 1 piece from firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt — met
  • Independent confirmation — a different provider (eog-vnf-annual), 2026-09-26 — met
  • Human approval — 1 of 2 needed at tier 2 — not met
  • Narration — AI-drafted by claude-opus-5 — met
Published
2026-09-26 by AI model
Narrated By
AI model
Reviewed By
AI model
Policy
2026-09-26-autonomous
Note
autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)

History5

  1. status changed → publishedAI model
  2. reviewed → confirmedAI model
  3. narrated → confirmedAI model
  4. confirmed → confirmedautomatic rule flaring v1.0
  5. created → candidateautomatic rule flaring v1.0

Verify

Checkpoint
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1 · 164 entries
Signed root
dee55129d595…ff9240
This case
5 signed events
Leaf
#136 of 164 — this case’s latest event
Leaf hash
332c7354d47b…384d08
Proof
7-hash audit path
  1. 568245561a2aea02ae7c4d97823347c40e63cf04aa710a3f2118f5b2f213e32f
  2. d9340b6bf60412eb830e63a2b1a815110d6978c633ebc4eabfab6430a4d3cec6
  3. b13dc0db5f1134c95f7da180b64ee68e411bf0d20ddf2d22a212de896380aa9c
  4. 78d4a217127a8d785683c1be031cba2e901cbe093b1ae77f14424b62c88b2c67
  5. c5791be43a93742281091b42839887266fcf328111a065fdb199bd6029e8a58f
  6. ea90af85b57fc2296d71cae3061ddb7573bdaad07fb8fd70a326eb6bfa8a0b0d
  7. 1e6b35b77ca24da32136c1f20f9724e4c9e881569d9550e8b5024cf584b97d34
Last event
3d89d0af21c1…2f3b7f
Note
Checkpoint text
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1
164
3uVRKdWVACCMvWGLLrloPsdgo2FcJrOlejRp8Ir/kkA=

— earthdeck TkCXv1RvXauCpUiWuk11ZCqwdoBJwbds1eETDZCkAWnWOFvcgHuHpllz0Q9kEbLx6iBG7M0UPs+Ejc/MfFN6WPWxNQA=

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