{"finding":{"findingId":"01a0df8b-d019-740b-a8d3-c6107acfc13f","status":"published","tier":2,"rule":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5,"revisitHours":18}},"title":"Persistent flaring in Flare field RUS 57.95, 107.08 (27 VNF sites): 1 cluster(s), up to 18 nights","summary":"1 VIIRS night-time heat cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW persisted on ≥ 5 of the last 30 nights; the most persistent was lit 18 nights (max 36.73 MW). 1 sit on known VNF 2024 flare sites.","geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[106.559,58.095]},"bbox":[106.29,57.84,107.48,58.27],"aoi":{"id":"flare-rus-58p0n-107p1e","name":"Flare field RUS 57.95, 107.08 (27 VNF sites)","tags":["flaring","oil-gas","discovered","rus","rus_ups_107.0756e_57.9530n"]},"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[]},"blindSpots":["Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.","Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.","FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.","Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.","No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.","Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.","The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week."],"observedAt":"2026-09-25T00:00:00Z","createdAt":"2026-09-26T21:07:01.490Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-26T21:20:46.028Z","createdBy":"system:flaring@1.0","confirmed":{"at":"2026-09-26T21:07:01.490Z","independence":"provider","signal":{"id":"eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-rus-58p0n-107p1e","kind":"record","source":"eog-vnf-annual","datetime":"2024-12-31T00:00:00Z","href":"https://eogdata.mines.edu/products/vnf/global_gas_flare.html","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"vnfYear":2024}},"summary":"1 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.157 BCM, 0.54 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary.","values":{"bcm":0.157,"vnfMatched":1}}},"evidence":[{"id":"firms-flaring-flare-rus-58p0n-107p1e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-25T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[106.29,57.84,107.48,58.27],"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"limit":20,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5}},"summary":"1 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-28…2026-09-26); top cluster 18 nights, max 36.73 MW at 58.0946, 106.5585.","values":{"hotNightDetections":157,"maxFrp":36.73,"maxNights":18,"persistentClusters":1,"vnfMatched":1,"vnfTopBcm":0.157,"vnfTopKm":0.54,"vnfYear":2024}}],"attribution":null,"narration":{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df97-79d6-7b7e-9d6b-60b124487bb0","findingId":"01a0df8b-d019-740b-a8d3-c6107acfc13f","at":"2026-09-26T21:20:41.430Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"760887a4e91ad380c8a36766e38e922de6ac90d868720a4c87ec85a8ac84d06f","kind":"narrated","text":"Night-time heat at a known Siberian flare site: one cluster lit 18 of 30 nights, peaking at 36.73 MW\n\nSatellite night-time heat detections over the flare field at roughly 57.95N, 107.08E show one persistent hot cluster. Between 28 August and 26 September 2026 it was lit on 18 of the 30 nights, with a peak fire radiative power of 36.73 MW and 157 hot-night detections in the area overall. Independently, the cluster sits 0.54 km from a site listed in the Earth Observation Group's VIIRS Nightfire annual flare summary for 2024, where that site was credited with 0.157 billion cubic metres of flared gas.\n\nWhat this is not: thermal sensors cannot separate a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery or kiln, and heat is not volume — the sensor can saturate, and the flared-volume figure comes only from an earlier annual summary, which proves the site is a known flare but not what burned this month. Unlit venting and cold methane leaks would be invisible here. No operator or owner is identified; this is a place, not a company.\n\nWhat would change our mind: a cloud-free month with the cluster dark, a ground or registry record showing a different heat source, or methane observations pointing to venting rather than burning.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Nights lit in the 30-night window: 18 [firms-flaring-flare-rus-58p0n-107p1e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Peak fire radiative power (MW): 36.73 [firms-flaring-flare-rus-58p0n-107p1e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Hot-night detections: 157 [firms-flaring-flare-rus-58p0n-107p1e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Persistent clusters: 1 [firms-flaring-flare-rus-58p0n-107p1e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Distance to known VNF flare site (km): 0.54 [firms-flaring-flare-rus-58p0n-107p1e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- VNF 2024 flared volume at matched site (BCM): 0.157 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-rus-58p0n-107p1e]\n\nConfidence: high\nCaveats:\n- Thermal data cannot distinguish a flare from a furnace, kiln or other industrial heat source.\n- Cloud or smoke hides nights, so persistence counts are a floor, not a ceiling.\n- Fire radiative power is not flared volume; the sensor can saturate on large flares.\n- The 0.157 BCM figure is a 2024 annual aggregate, not this month's output.\n- Unlit venting and cold methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors.\n- Only two satellite passes per night; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed.\n- No operator or ownership attribution is made or implied.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"b98f50d6f36ddd596c6ad0ee3d8668640f7f9786c53443fac51df1c6df375d69","transcriptSha256":"375e8f667b83fc3f3db538cd3033483851b1a4b9f1c8e11a79a85369556bda64","evidenceRefs":["firms-flaring-flare-rus-58p0n-107p1e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26","eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-rus-58p0n-107p1e"]},"reviews":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df97-8bbc-7760-ae5e-857a769b80ed","findingId":"01a0df8b-d019-740b-a8d3-c6107acfc13f","at":"2026-09-26T21:20:46.012Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"c77d9f3daa8401bbe2bea49e630f650f3f9938594843e6d914307cc9f7076d28","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":2,"note":"All numeric claims (18/30 nights, 36.73 MW, 157 detections, 0.54 km, 0.157 BCM) match the evidence and confirmation signal exactly; Narration explicitly covers major blind spots: sensor cannot distinguish flare from furnace/kiln, FRP is not volume, cloud gaps under-count persistence, venting/cold methane invisible, no operator attribution, VNF is a past annual aggregate; No individuals or companies are named, only a place-based cluster; AOI is tagged discovered/flaring/oil-gas, not control, consistent with a non-control finding warranting publication; Confidence label and caveats are appropriately hedged given tier 2 status","verdict":"publish"}],"notifications":[],"replies":[],"retracted":null,"history":[{"at":"2026-09-26T21:07:01.490Z","kind":"created","status":"candidate","actor":"system:flaring@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-26T21:07:01.490Z","kind":"confirmed","status":"confirmed","actor":"system:flaring@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-26T21:20:41.430Z","kind":"narrated","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-opus-5"},{"at":"2026-09-26T21:20:46.012Z","kind":"reviewed","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"},{"at":"2026-09-26T21:20:46.028Z","kind":"status_changed","status":"published","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"}],"eventCount":5,"lastEventHash":"3d89d0af21c177d30192302e62602945bc2125ee4ce7f09fbea4878e082f3b7f"},"events":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df8b-d019-75da-919c-5b29bb54594d","findingId":"01a0df8b-d019-740b-a8d3-c6107acfc13f","at":"2026-09-26T21:07:01.490Z","actor":"system:flaring@1.0","prev":null,"kind":"created","rule":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5,"revisitHours":18}},"title":"Persistent flaring in Flare field RUS 57.95, 107.08 (27 VNF sites): 1 cluster(s), up to 18 nights","summary":"1 VIIRS night-time heat cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW persisted on ≥ 5 of the last 30 nights; the most persistent was lit 18 nights (max 36.73 MW). 1 sit on known VNF 2024 flare sites.","tier":2,"geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[106.559,58.095]},"bbox":[106.29,57.84,107.48,58.27],"aoi":{"id":"flare-rus-58p0n-107p1e","name":"Flare field RUS 57.95, 107.08 (27 VNF sites)","tags":["flaring","oil-gas","discovered","rus","rus_ups_107.0756e_57.9530n"]},"observedAt":"2026-09-25T00:00:00Z","evidence":[{"id":"firms-flaring-flare-rus-58p0n-107p1e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-25T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[106.29,57.84,107.48,58.27],"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"limit":20,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5}},"summary":"1 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-28…2026-09-26); top cluster 18 nights, max 36.73 MW at 58.0946, 106.5585.","values":{"hotNightDetections":157,"maxFrp":36.73,"maxNights":18,"persistentClusters":1,"vnfMatched":1,"vnfTopBcm":0.157,"vnfTopKm":0.54,"vnfYear":2024}}],"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[]},"blindSpots":["Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.","Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.","FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.","Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.","No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.","Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.","The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week."]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df8b-d021-7c2e-a0b2-7f714cc52320","findingId":"01a0df8b-d019-740b-a8d3-c6107acfc13f","at":"2026-09-26T21:07:01.490Z","actor":"system:flaring@1.0","prev":"d2c0d83aa8532f87e33e69ed8a1aacb6ba8ae63db3c34b372795b77821c35578","kind":"confirmed","signal":{"id":"eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-rus-58p0n-107p1e","kind":"record","source":"eog-vnf-annual","datetime":"2024-12-31T00:00:00Z","href":"https://eogdata.mines.edu/products/vnf/global_gas_flare.html","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"vnfYear":2024}},"summary":"1 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.157 BCM, 0.54 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary.","values":{"bcm":0.157,"vnfMatched":1}},"independence":"provider"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df97-79d6-7b7e-9d6b-60b124487bb0","findingId":"01a0df8b-d019-740b-a8d3-c6107acfc13f","at":"2026-09-26T21:20:41.430Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"760887a4e91ad380c8a36766e38e922de6ac90d868720a4c87ec85a8ac84d06f","kind":"narrated","text":"Night-time heat at a known Siberian flare site: one cluster lit 18 of 30 nights, peaking at 36.73 MW\n\nSatellite night-time heat detections over the flare field at roughly 57.95N, 107.08E show one persistent hot cluster. Between 28 August and 26 September 2026 it was lit on 18 of the 30 nights, with a peak fire radiative power of 36.73 MW and 157 hot-night detections in the area overall. Independently, the cluster sits 0.54 km from a site listed in the Earth Observation Group's VIIRS Nightfire annual flare summary for 2024, where that site was credited with 0.157 billion cubic metres of flared gas.\n\nWhat this is not: thermal sensors cannot separate a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery or kiln, and heat is not volume — the sensor can saturate, and the flared-volume figure comes only from an earlier annual summary, which proves the site is a known flare but not what burned this month. Unlit venting and cold methane leaks would be invisible here. No operator or owner is identified; this is a place, not a company.\n\nWhat would change our mind: a cloud-free month with the cluster dark, a ground or registry record showing a different heat source, or methane observations pointing to venting rather than burning.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Nights lit in the 30-night window: 18 [firms-flaring-flare-rus-58p0n-107p1e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Peak fire radiative power (MW): 36.73 [firms-flaring-flare-rus-58p0n-107p1e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Hot-night detections: 157 [firms-flaring-flare-rus-58p0n-107p1e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Persistent clusters: 1 [firms-flaring-flare-rus-58p0n-107p1e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Distance to known VNF flare site (km): 0.54 [firms-flaring-flare-rus-58p0n-107p1e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- VNF 2024 flared volume at matched site (BCM): 0.157 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-rus-58p0n-107p1e]\n\nConfidence: high\nCaveats:\n- Thermal data cannot distinguish a flare from a furnace, kiln or other industrial heat source.\n- Cloud or smoke hides nights, so persistence counts are a floor, not a ceiling.\n- Fire radiative power is not flared volume; the sensor can saturate on large flares.\n- The 0.157 BCM figure is a 2024 annual aggregate, not this month's output.\n- Unlit venting and cold methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors.\n- Only two satellite passes per night; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed.\n- No operator or ownership attribution is made or implied.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"b98f50d6f36ddd596c6ad0ee3d8668640f7f9786c53443fac51df1c6df375d69","transcriptSha256":"375e8f667b83fc3f3db538cd3033483851b1a4b9f1c8e11a79a85369556bda64","evidenceRefs":["firms-flaring-flare-rus-58p0n-107p1e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26","eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-rus-58p0n-107p1e"]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df97-8bbc-7760-ae5e-857a769b80ed","findingId":"01a0df8b-d019-740b-a8d3-c6107acfc13f","at":"2026-09-26T21:20:46.012Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"c77d9f3daa8401bbe2bea49e630f650f3f9938594843e6d914307cc9f7076d28","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":2,"note":"All numeric claims (18/30 nights, 36.73 MW, 157 detections, 0.54 km, 0.157 BCM) match the evidence and confirmation signal exactly; Narration explicitly covers major blind spots: sensor cannot distinguish flare from furnace/kiln, FRP is not volume, cloud gaps under-count persistence, venting/cold methane invisible, no operator attribution, VNF is a past annual aggregate; No individuals or companies are named, only a place-based cluster; AOI is tagged discovered/flaring/oil-gas, not control, consistent with a non-control finding warranting publication; Confidence label and caveats are appropriately hedged given tier 2 status","verdict":"publish"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df97-8bcc-7f07-9c80-85cf5a3eb1bd","findingId":"01a0df8b-d019-740b-a8d3-c6107acfc13f","at":"2026-09-26T21:20:46.028Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"49233085c6e54ceb2aaa585394a1236f6778a2b6e670ec949fee7df91915a94c","kind":"status_changed","from":"confirmed","to":"published","reason":"autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)","gates":{"narratedBy":"model:claude-opus-5","reviewedBy":["model:claude-sonnet-5"],"policy":"2026-09-26-autonomous"}}],"inclusion":{"index":136,"leafHash":"332c7354d47b676eefdf7e50f2ae1d9c94569055e2c4f0403d343dcdf4384d08","proof":["568245561a2aea02ae7c4d97823347c40e63cf04aa710a3f2118f5b2f213e32f","d9340b6bf60412eb830e63a2b1a815110d6978c633ebc4eabfab6430a4d3cec6","b13dc0db5f1134c95f7da180b64ee68e411bf0d20ddf2d22a212de896380aa9c","78d4a217127a8d785683c1be031cba2e901cbe093b1ae77f14424b62c88b2c67","c5791be43a93742281091b42839887266fcf328111a065fdb199bd6029e8a58f","ea90af85b57fc2296d71cae3061ddb7573bdaad07fb8fd70a326eb6bfa8a0b0d","1e6b35b77ca24da32136c1f20f9724e4c9e881569d9550e8b5024cf584b97d34"],"size":164,"root":"dee55129d59500208cbd618b2eb9683ec760a3615c26b3a57a3469f08aff9240"}}