TerraKeepKeeping Earth within its limits
Published

Three heat sources burned nightly for up to 28 nights at a known Iranian flare field

Flare field IRN 32.49, 47.21 (5 VNF sites) · seen · published

Night-time VIIRS passes over the flare field near 32.49N, 47.21E recorded 3 clusters of heat with fire radiative power of at least 5 MW on 5 or more of the last 30 nights (2026-08-28 to 2026-09-26), from 156 hot-night detections in all. The most persistent cluster was lit on 28 nights, peaking at 21.03 MW. Independently, 2 of the clusters fall on sites listed in the Earth Observation Group's VIIRS Nightfire 2024 annual flare summary, the top one 0.11 km away and credited with 0.303 BCM that year.

What this is not: the sensor sees heat, not the thing burning. A flare, a refinery furnace, a steel or cement kiln all look alike from orbit; only the persistence and the match to a catalogued flare site argue for flaring here. FRP is not volume — the band saturates on big flares — and the VNF match is an annual aggregate from 2024, proving the site is a known flare, not that this week's burn is the same source. Unlit venting would be invisible entirely.

What would change our mind: a cloudy or smoky stretch under-counts nights and can mimic a shutdown; methane data from S5P or EMIT, or an asset registry check, would sharpen or overturn the flaring reading.

Written by AI, then checked by a separate reviewer before publication. Every claim points at the evidence below.

Cloud-free satellite view around Flare field IRN 32.49, 47.21 (5 VNF sites), with the finding area outlined
32.43°N 47.31°ENASA Blue Marble via GIBS · outline = finding area

What we saw

  • NASA fire detections — 3 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-28…2026-09-26); top cluster 28 nights, max 21.03 MW at 32.4909, 47.2098. (Sep 25, 2026) See the source ↗
  • Gas-flare detections (VIIRS Nightfire) — 2 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.303 BCM, 0.11 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary. (Dec 31, 2024) See the source ↗

What it might not be

  • Thermal sensors cannot separate a gas flare from a furnace, kiln or volcano; the flare reading rests on persistence plus the catalogued site match.
  • Cloud or heavy smoke hides nights, so persistence counts are a floor, not a ceiling.
  • FRP is a single-pixel estimate and saturates on large flares; it is not a measure of flared volume.
  • The confirming VNF record is a 2024 annual aggregate — it shows a known flare site, not this month's activity.
  • Only two overpasses per night (~01:30 local); short or intermittent burning between passes is missed.
  • No operator or ownership attribution: a cluster is a location, not an organisation.
  • Unlit venting and cold methane releases would not appear in this data at all.
  • Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.
  • Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.
  • FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.
  • Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.
  • No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.
  • Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.
  • The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week.

What would change our mind

Newer satellite images that show no change, a correction from the data source, or a reply with evidence from the ground. If that happens, the case is marked “Turned out wrong” — in public — and it stays on this site.

Why this was published

Two separate sources agreed — NASA fire detections, then Gas-flare detections (VIIRS Nightfire) — and a reviewer checked the evidence before it went up.

Right of reply

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Ledger id 01a0df7f-ee19-783a-b4ba-14973942ca29

Technical details rule, evidence ids, history, proof
Rule
flaring v1.0
Tier
T2
Tags
flaring, oil-gas, discovered, irn, irn_ups_47.2102e_32.4918n
Confirmed
Yes — independent provider signal, 2026-09-26
Rule FP rate
9.1 % · 1 of 11 decided
Location
32.43°N 47.31°E
Observed
2026-09-25
Opened
2026-09-26 by automatic rule flaring v1.0
  1. candidate
  2. confirmed
  3. published
  4. resolved

Evidence2

alertfirms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt

3 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-28…2026-09-26); top cluster 28 nights, max 21.03 MW at 32.4909, 47.2098.

hotNightDetections 156maxFrp 21.03maxNights 28persistentClusters 3vnfMatched 2vnfTopBcm 0.303vnfTopKm 0.11vnfYear 2024
· flaring v1.0 · firms-flaring-flare-irn-32p5n-47p2e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26
Source ↗
recordeog-vnf-annualConfirming signal

2 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.303 BCM, 0.11 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary.

bcm 0.303vnfMatched 2
· flaring v1.0 · eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-32p5n-47p2e
Source ↗

Context

ENSO El Niño · ONI +1.8

Publication gates

  • Evidence — 1 piece from firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt — met
  • Independent confirmation — a different provider (eog-vnf-annual), 2026-09-26 — met
  • Human approval — 1 of 2 needed at tier 2 — not met
  • Narration — AI-drafted by claude-opus-5 — met
Published
2026-09-26 by AI model
Narrated By
AI model
Reviewed By
AI model
Policy
2026-09-26-autonomous
Note
autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)

History5

  1. status changed → publishedAI model
  2. reviewed → confirmedAI model
  3. narrated → confirmedAI model
  4. confirmed → confirmedautomatic rule flaring v1.0
  5. created → candidateautomatic rule flaring v1.0

Verify

Checkpoint
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1 · 164 entries
Signed root
dee55129d595…ff9240
This case
5 signed events
Leaf
#160 of 164 — this case’s latest event
Leaf hash
f3231091630c…e1eac3
Proof
4-hash audit path
  1. 26659b90bdd3271dae2ba7de60e2237c6020ea0d073fda37a7745930a64cf979
  2. dcbac6339d7a90eb32841680bc69218a83fe14b360dc1f20638dc35f5693e6cc
  3. 0fcf67955c0d83e3763f4cb1e1535a26d56fbd1960df3611140cb83239d78ebc
  4. 1e6b35b77ca24da32136c1f20f9724e4c9e881569d9550e8b5024cf584b97d34
Last event
de4cd40ace11…c8e91e
Note
Checkpoint text
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1
164
3uVRKdWVACCMvWGLLrloPsdgo2FcJrOlejRp8Ir/kkA=

— earthdeck TkCXv1RvXauCpUiWuk11ZCqwdoBJwbds1eETDZCkAWnWOFvcgHuHpllz0Q9kEbLx6iBG7M0UPs+Ejc/MfFN6WPWxNQA=

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