{"finding":{"findingId":"01a0df7f-ee19-783a-b4ba-14973942ca29","status":"published","tier":2,"rule":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5,"revisitHours":18}},"title":"Persistent flaring in Flare field IRN 32.49, 47.21 (5 VNF sites): 3 cluster(s), up to 28 nights","summary":"3 VIIRS night-time heat cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW persisted on ≥ 5 of the last 30 nights; the most persistent was lit 28 nights (max 21.03 MW). 2 sit on known VNF 2024 flare sites.","geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[47.21,32.491]},"bbox":[47.09,32.26,47.54,32.6],"aoi":{"id":"flare-irn-32p5n-47p2e","name":"Flare field IRN 32.49, 47.21 (5 VNF sites)","tags":["flaring","oil-gas","discovered","irn","irn_ups_47.2102e_32.4918n"]},"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[]},"blindSpots":["Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.","Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.","FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.","Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.","No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.","Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.","The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week."],"observedAt":"2026-09-25T00:00:00Z","createdAt":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-26T21:25:01.996Z","createdBy":"system:flaring@1.0","confirmed":{"at":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","independence":"provider","signal":{"id":"eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-32p5n-47p2e","kind":"record","source":"eog-vnf-annual","datetime":"2024-12-31T00:00:00Z","href":"https://eogdata.mines.edu/products/vnf/global_gas_flare.html","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"vnfYear":2024}},"summary":"2 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.303 BCM, 0.11 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary.","values":{"bcm":0.303,"vnfMatched":2}}},"evidence":[{"id":"firms-flaring-flare-irn-32p5n-47p2e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-25T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[47.09,32.26,47.54,32.6],"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"limit":20,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5}},"summary":"3 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-28…2026-09-26); top cluster 28 nights, max 21.03 MW at 32.4909, 47.2098.","values":{"hotNightDetections":156,"maxFrp":21.03,"maxNights":28,"persistentClusters":3,"vnfMatched":2,"vnfTopBcm":0.303,"vnfTopKm":0.11,"vnfYear":2024}}],"attribution":null,"narration":{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df9b-6127-75b2-80a5-4358bee6c817","findingId":"01a0df7f-ee19-783a-b4ba-14973942ca29","at":"2026-09-26T21:24:57.255Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"edc889fa581ce7482d6b47ce21d34d90a0032ad49fbdc38b20a00920093c3723","kind":"narrated","text":"Three heat sources burned nightly for up to 28 nights at a known Iranian flare field\n\nNight-time VIIRS passes over the flare field near 32.49N, 47.21E recorded 3 clusters of heat with fire radiative power of at least 5 MW on 5 or more of the last 30 nights (2026-08-28 to 2026-09-26), from 156 hot-night detections in all. The most persistent cluster was lit on 28 nights, peaking at 21.03 MW. Independently, 2 of the clusters fall on sites listed in the Earth Observation Group's VIIRS Nightfire 2024 annual flare summary, the top one 0.11 km away and credited with 0.303 BCM that year.\n\nWhat this is not: the sensor sees heat, not the thing burning. A flare, a refinery furnace, a steel or cement kiln all look alike from orbit; only the persistence and the match to a catalogued flare site argue for flaring here. FRP is not volume — the band saturates on big flares — and the VNF match is an annual aggregate from 2024, proving the site is a known flare, not that this week's burn is the same source. Unlit venting would be invisible entirely.\n\nWhat would change our mind: a cloudy or smoky stretch under-counts nights and can mimic a shutdown; methane data from S5P or EMIT, or an asset registry check, would sharpen or overturn the flaring reading.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Persistent night-time heat clusters: 3 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-32p5n-47p2e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Nights lit, most persistent cluster: 28 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-32p5n-47p2e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Peak fire radiative power (MW): 21.03 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-32p5n-47p2e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Hot-night detections in 30 days: 156 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-32p5n-47p2e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Clusters matching VNF 2024 flare sites: 2 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-32p5n-47p2e]\n- Top VNF site flared volume, 2024 (BCM): 0.303 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-32p5n-47p2e]\n\nConfidence: high\nCaveats:\n- Thermal sensors cannot separate a gas flare from a furnace, kiln or volcano; the flare reading rests on persistence plus the catalogued site match.\n- Cloud or heavy smoke hides nights, so persistence counts are a floor, not a ceiling.\n- FRP is a single-pixel estimate and saturates on large flares; it is not a measure of flared volume.\n- The confirming VNF record is a 2024 annual aggregate — it shows a known flare site, not this month's activity.\n- Only two overpasses per night (~01:30 local); short or intermittent burning between passes is missed.\n- No operator or ownership attribution: a cluster is a location, not an organisation.\n- Unlit venting and cold methane releases would not appear in this data at all.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"d1534fc9204e6d2aa82c7fbf9b6bcb978f53384847d22c517f1ba382307b64e5","transcriptSha256":"0514c2083b5d610f7bf91aedf6925a99f32f09d54988b53e51acd4e329e1d4c4","evidenceRefs":["firms-flaring-flare-irn-32p5n-47p2e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26","eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-32p5n-47p2e"]},"reviews":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df9b-73a9-71d5-a160-9ce88d942fd7","findingId":"01a0df7f-ee19-783a-b4ba-14973942ca29","at":"2026-09-26T21:25:01.993Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"0167de78c38d179650f67eec2d4180a640fe3f8e6a75ec0ff0e67208d4a233aa","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":2,"note":"All numbers (3 clusters, 28 nights, 21.03 MW, 156 detections, 2 VNF matches, 0.303 BCM) match the evidence and confirmation signal exactly; Narration thoroughly acknowledges blind spots: sensor ambiguity, cloud undercounting, FRP saturation, VNF being a past-year aggregate, overpass gaps, lack of ownership attribution, and invisibility of unlit venting; No individuals are named; only a location and institutional VNF credit are referenced; AOI is tagged 'flaring/oil-gas/discovered' and control:false, appropriately not a control site; Confidence label and caveats are consistent with the evidence's inherent uncertainty","verdict":"publish"}],"notifications":[],"replies":[],"retracted":null,"history":[{"at":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","kind":"created","status":"candidate","actor":"system:flaring@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","kind":"confirmed","status":"confirmed","actor":"system:flaring@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-26T21:24:57.255Z","kind":"narrated","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-opus-5"},{"at":"2026-09-26T21:25:01.993Z","kind":"reviewed","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"},{"at":"2026-09-26T21:25:01.996Z","kind":"status_changed","status":"published","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"}],"eventCount":5,"lastEventHash":"de4cd40ace11b62f28117b0257d193ec0126c1349ccd7f169510531538c8e91e"},"events":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df7f-ee19-7398-8451-85a83c0d24f3","findingId":"01a0df7f-ee19-783a-b4ba-14973942ca29","at":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","actor":"system:flaring@1.0","prev":null,"kind":"created","rule":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5,"revisitHours":18}},"title":"Persistent flaring in Flare field IRN 32.49, 47.21 (5 VNF sites): 3 cluster(s), up to 28 nights","summary":"3 VIIRS night-time heat cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW persisted on ≥ 5 of the last 30 nights; the most persistent was lit 28 nights (max 21.03 MW). 2 sit on known VNF 2024 flare sites.","tier":2,"geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[47.21,32.491]},"bbox":[47.09,32.26,47.54,32.6],"aoi":{"id":"flare-irn-32p5n-47p2e","name":"Flare field IRN 32.49, 47.21 (5 VNF sites)","tags":["flaring","oil-gas","discovered","irn","irn_ups_47.2102e_32.4918n"]},"observedAt":"2026-09-25T00:00:00Z","evidence":[{"id":"firms-flaring-flare-irn-32p5n-47p2e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-25T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[47.09,32.26,47.54,32.6],"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"limit":20,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5}},"summary":"3 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-28…2026-09-26); top cluster 28 nights, max 21.03 MW at 32.4909, 47.2098.","values":{"hotNightDetections":156,"maxFrp":21.03,"maxNights":28,"persistentClusters":3,"vnfMatched":2,"vnfTopBcm":0.303,"vnfTopKm":0.11,"vnfYear":2024}}],"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[]},"blindSpots":["Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.","Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.","FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.","Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.","No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.","Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.","The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week."]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df7f-ee1c-73ef-b77a-79f7fb489c9d","findingId":"01a0df7f-ee19-783a-b4ba-14973942ca29","at":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","actor":"system:flaring@1.0","prev":"f508610c93871c9e6fb4fbdb869910e4575e860c50e26dcbb90f0c2ccd180a40","kind":"confirmed","signal":{"id":"eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-32p5n-47p2e","kind":"record","source":"eog-vnf-annual","datetime":"2024-12-31T00:00:00Z","href":"https://eogdata.mines.edu/products/vnf/global_gas_flare.html","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"vnfYear":2024}},"summary":"2 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.303 BCM, 0.11 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary.","values":{"bcm":0.303,"vnfMatched":2}},"independence":"provider"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df9b-6127-75b2-80a5-4358bee6c817","findingId":"01a0df7f-ee19-783a-b4ba-14973942ca29","at":"2026-09-26T21:24:57.255Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"edc889fa581ce7482d6b47ce21d34d90a0032ad49fbdc38b20a00920093c3723","kind":"narrated","text":"Three heat sources burned nightly for up to 28 nights at a known Iranian flare field\n\nNight-time VIIRS passes over the flare field near 32.49N, 47.21E recorded 3 clusters of heat with fire radiative power of at least 5 MW on 5 or more of the last 30 nights (2026-08-28 to 2026-09-26), from 156 hot-night detections in all. The most persistent cluster was lit on 28 nights, peaking at 21.03 MW. Independently, 2 of the clusters fall on sites listed in the Earth Observation Group's VIIRS Nightfire 2024 annual flare summary, the top one 0.11 km away and credited with 0.303 BCM that year.\n\nWhat this is not: the sensor sees heat, not the thing burning. A flare, a refinery furnace, a steel or cement kiln all look alike from orbit; only the persistence and the match to a catalogued flare site argue for flaring here. FRP is not volume — the band saturates on big flares — and the VNF match is an annual aggregate from 2024, proving the site is a known flare, not that this week's burn is the same source. Unlit venting would be invisible entirely.\n\nWhat would change our mind: a cloudy or smoky stretch under-counts nights and can mimic a shutdown; methane data from S5P or EMIT, or an asset registry check, would sharpen or overturn the flaring reading.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Persistent night-time heat clusters: 3 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-32p5n-47p2e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Nights lit, most persistent cluster: 28 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-32p5n-47p2e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Peak fire radiative power (MW): 21.03 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-32p5n-47p2e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Hot-night detections in 30 days: 156 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-32p5n-47p2e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Clusters matching VNF 2024 flare sites: 2 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-32p5n-47p2e]\n- Top VNF site flared volume, 2024 (BCM): 0.303 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-32p5n-47p2e]\n\nConfidence: high\nCaveats:\n- Thermal sensors cannot separate a gas flare from a furnace, kiln or volcano; the flare reading rests on persistence plus the catalogued site match.\n- Cloud or heavy smoke hides nights, so persistence counts are a floor, not a ceiling.\n- FRP is a single-pixel estimate and saturates on large flares; it is not a measure of flared volume.\n- The confirming VNF record is a 2024 annual aggregate — it shows a known flare site, not this month's activity.\n- Only two overpasses per night (~01:30 local); short or intermittent burning between passes is missed.\n- No operator or ownership attribution: a cluster is a location, not an organisation.\n- Unlit venting and cold methane releases would not appear in this data at all.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"d1534fc9204e6d2aa82c7fbf9b6bcb978f53384847d22c517f1ba382307b64e5","transcriptSha256":"0514c2083b5d610f7bf91aedf6925a99f32f09d54988b53e51acd4e329e1d4c4","evidenceRefs":["firms-flaring-flare-irn-32p5n-47p2e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26","eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-32p5n-47p2e"]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df9b-73a9-71d5-a160-9ce88d942fd7","findingId":"01a0df7f-ee19-783a-b4ba-14973942ca29","at":"2026-09-26T21:25:01.993Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"0167de78c38d179650f67eec2d4180a640fe3f8e6a75ec0ff0e67208d4a233aa","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":2,"note":"All numbers (3 clusters, 28 nights, 21.03 MW, 156 detections, 2 VNF matches, 0.303 BCM) match the evidence and confirmation signal exactly; Narration thoroughly acknowledges blind spots: sensor ambiguity, cloud undercounting, FRP saturation, VNF being a past-year aggregate, overpass gaps, lack of ownership attribution, and invisibility of unlit venting; No individuals are named; only a location and institutional VNF credit are referenced; AOI is tagged 'flaring/oil-gas/discovered' and control:false, appropriately not a control site; Confidence label and caveats are consistent with the evidence's inherent uncertainty","verdict":"publish"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df9b-73ac-7728-a4eb-6dbc9d1ac695","findingId":"01a0df7f-ee19-783a-b4ba-14973942ca29","at":"2026-09-26T21:25:01.996Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"1300043fb08692f87cd1700d5f7fee32f20d2de57891618a0d3528b903581880","kind":"status_changed","from":"confirmed","to":"published","reason":"autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)","gates":{"narratedBy":"model:claude-opus-5","reviewedBy":["model:claude-sonnet-5"],"policy":"2026-09-26-autonomous"}}],"inclusion":{"index":160,"leafHash":"f3231091630c7279e31928f960515c5d8257dfc0edbd904dab34d8d185e1eac3","proof":["26659b90bdd3271dae2ba7de60e2237c6020ea0d073fda37a7745930a64cf979","dcbac6339d7a90eb32841680bc69218a83fe14b360dc1f20638dc35f5693e6cc","0fcf67955c0d83e3763f4cb1e1535a26d56fbd1960df3611140cb83239d78ebc","1e6b35b77ca24da32136c1f20f9724e4c9e881569d9550e8b5024cf584b97d34"],"size":164,"root":"dee55129d59500208cbd618b2eb9683ec760a3615c26b3a57a3469f08aff9240"}}