TerraKeepKeeping Earth within its limits
Published

Night-time heat burns 29 of 30 nights at a known Libyan flare field — steady flaring, not a new fire

Flare field LBY 28.91, 19.77 (2 VNF sites) · seen · published

Satellite night-time heat detections over the flare field at roughly 28.91°N, 19.77°E show 3 clusters that stayed lit on at least 5 of the last 30 nights (28 Aug–26 Sep 2026), from 347 hot-night detections. The most persistent cluster was lit on 29 nights and peaked at 127.22 MW. All 3 clusters sit on sites listed in the independent VIIRS Nightfire 2024 annual flare summary, the nearest just 0.15 km away, where the top site was credited with 0.665 billion cubic metres.

What this is not: the sensor cannot tell a gas flare from a refinery furnace, a steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — it is the night-after-night persistence plus the match to known flare sites that points to flaring. The heat figure is not a volume: the detector saturates on the biggest flames, and volume estimates come only from the annual summary. Cold venting and unlit methane leaks would be invisible here. No operator or owner is identified; a cluster is a place, not a company.

What would change our mind: a volcanic or industrial heat source mapped at these coordinates, or a cloud-free stretch showing the clusters going dark.

Written by AI, then checked by a separate reviewer before publication. Every claim points at the evidence below.

Cloud-free satellite view around Flare field LBY 28.91, 19.77 (2 VNF sites), with the finding area outlined
28.91°N 19.77°ENASA Blue Marble via GIBS · outline = finding area

What we saw

  • NASA fire detections — 3 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-28…2026-09-26); top cluster 29 nights, max 127.22 MW at 28.9097, 19.7723. (Sep 24, 2026) See the source ↗
  • Gas-flare detections (VIIRS Nightfire) — 3 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.665 BCM, 0.15 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary. (Dec 31, 2024) See the source ↗

What it might not be

  • Thermal sensors cannot distinguish a gas flare from a furnace, kiln or volcano; persistence and the site match carry the interpretation.
  • Cloud or heavy smoke hides nights, so a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can mimic a shut-down flare.
  • Radiated heat is not flared volume — the sensor saturates on the largest flames; volume figures come only from the 2024 annual summary.
  • The confirming record is an annual aggregate from 2024: it shows the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week.
  • Only two overpasses per night (~01:30 local); short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed.
  • Unlit venting and cold methane releases are invisible here; pairing with methane sensors would be needed.
  • No operator or ownership attribution is possible from this data.
  • Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.
  • Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.
  • FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.
  • Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.
  • No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.
  • Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.
  • The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week.

What would change our mind

Newer satellite images that show no change, a correction from the data source, or a reply with evidence from the ground. If that happens, the case is marked “Turned out wrong” — in public — and it stays on this site.

Why this was published

Two separate sources agreed — NASA fire detections, then Gas-flare detections (VIIRS Nightfire) — and a reviewer checked the evidence before it went up.

Right of reply

If a case names or affects you, you can reply. A reply channel that keeps both sides on record is being set up; until then, every case page carries its ledger id so a reply can be attached to it.

Ledger id 01a0df7f-d4fc-715f-834e-f9a754351d75

Technical details rule, evidence ids, history, proof
Rule
flaring v1.0
Tier
T2
Tags
flaring, oil-gas, discovered, lby, lby_ups_19.7736e_28.9105n
Confirmed
Yes — independent provider signal, 2026-09-26
Rule FP rate
9.1 % · 1 of 11 decided
Location
28.91°N 19.77°E
Observed
2026-09-24
Opened
2026-09-26 by automatic rule flaring v1.0
  1. candidate
  2. confirmed
  3. published
  4. resolved

Evidence2

alertfirms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt

3 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-28…2026-09-26); top cluster 29 nights, max 127.22 MW at 28.9097, 19.7723.

hotNightDetections 347maxFrp 127.22maxNights 29persistentClusters 3vnfMatched 3vnfTopBcm 0.665vnfTopKm 0.15vnfYear 2024
· flaring v1.0 · firms-flaring-flare-lby-28p9n-19p8e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26
Source ↗
recordeog-vnf-annualConfirming signal

3 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.665 BCM, 0.15 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary.

bcm 0.665vnfMatched 3
· flaring v1.0 · eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-lby-28p9n-19p8e
Source ↗

Context

ENSO El Niño · ONI +1.8

Publication gates

  • Evidence — 1 piece from firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt — met
  • Independent confirmation — a different provider (eog-vnf-annual), 2026-09-26 — met
  • Human approval — 1 of 2 needed at tier 2 — not met
  • Narration — AI-drafted by claude-opus-5 — met
Published
2026-09-26 by AI model
Narrated By
AI model
Reviewed By
AI model
Policy
2026-09-26-autonomous
Note
autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)

History5

  1. status changed → publishedAI model
  2. reviewed → confirmedAI model
  3. narrated → confirmedAI model
  4. confirmed → confirmedautomatic rule flaring v1.0
  5. created → candidateautomatic rule flaring v1.0

Verify

Checkpoint
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1 · 164 entries
Signed root
dee55129d595…ff9240
This case
5 signed events
Leaf
#157 of 164 — this case’s latest event
Leaf hash
e2503016c989…061de0
Proof
7-hash audit path
  1. 834c00854fde4ece5fe9eecedd38c8226f3d1680c05e2665792c336617cd0d54
  2. aae577f89500475c05f3c27ffcc625656db3aaa76cdb7b96d84189136cb209d8
  3. 61ab4a67ab6b47bea2be3a14af856cfb19c31393ee3e064ec00e0a4485e67165
  4. cb2a066495c5aaafbfe7da55c484ec7f0e77bcccc83f0b9f3cff939a855bc422
  5. 7213f06b8d14ed3a5b1156a9a9f6238adf157cc0c75ba48bad6be9c01e35759f
  6. ea90af85b57fc2296d71cae3061ddb7573bdaad07fb8fd70a326eb6bfa8a0b0d
  7. 1e6b35b77ca24da32136c1f20f9724e4c9e881569d9550e8b5024cf584b97d34
Last event
46bce9c1eeeb…96c181
Note
Checkpoint text
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1
164
3uVRKdWVACCMvWGLLrloPsdgo2FcJrOlejRp8Ir/kkA=

— earthdeck TkCXv1RvXauCpUiWuk11ZCqwdoBJwbds1eETDZCkAWnWOFvcgHuHpllz0Q9kEbLx6iBG7M0UPs+Ejc/MfFN6WPWxNQA=

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