{"finding":{"findingId":"01a0df7f-d4fc-715f-834e-f9a754351d75","status":"published","tier":2,"rule":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5,"revisitHours":18}},"title":"Persistent flaring in Flare field LBY 28.91, 19.77 (2 VNF sites): 3 cluster(s), up to 29 nights","summary":"3 VIIRS night-time heat cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW persisted on ≥ 5 of the last 30 nights; the most persistent was lit 29 nights (max 127.22 MW). 3 sit on known VNF 2024 flare sites.","geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[19.772,28.91]},"bbox":[19.65,28.8,19.88,29.01],"aoi":{"id":"flare-lby-28p9n-19p8e","name":"Flare field LBY 28.91, 19.77 (2 VNF sites)","tags":["flaring","oil-gas","discovered","lby","lby_ups_19.7736e_28.9105n"]},"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[]},"blindSpots":["Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.","Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.","FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.","Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.","No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.","Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.","The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week."],"observedAt":"2026-09-24T00:00:00Z","createdAt":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-26T21:24:40.659Z","createdBy":"system:flaring@1.0","confirmed":{"at":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","independence":"provider","signal":{"id":"eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-lby-28p9n-19p8e","kind":"record","source":"eog-vnf-annual","datetime":"2024-12-31T00:00:00Z","href":"https://eogdata.mines.edu/products/vnf/global_gas_flare.html","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"vnfYear":2024}},"summary":"3 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.665 BCM, 0.15 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary.","values":{"bcm":0.665,"vnfMatched":3}}},"evidence":[{"id":"firms-flaring-flare-lby-28p9n-19p8e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-24T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[19.65,28.8,19.88,29.01],"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"limit":20,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5}},"summary":"3 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-28…2026-09-26); top cluster 29 nights, max 127.22 MW at 28.9097, 19.7723.","values":{"hotNightDetections":347,"maxFrp":127.22,"maxNights":29,"persistentClusters":3,"vnfMatched":3,"vnfTopBcm":0.665,"vnfTopKm":0.15,"vnfYear":2024}}],"attribution":null,"narration":{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df9b-0d3b-71d5-8779-c1601d2b2f9e","findingId":"01a0df7f-d4fc-715f-834e-f9a754351d75","at":"2026-09-26T21:24:35.771Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"84b1f90c89c6e6470c5dba823f12dd51399a3a55a05700c1c07bb3e98cd66163","kind":"narrated","text":"Night-time heat burns 29 of 30 nights at a known Libyan flare field — steady flaring, not a new fire\n\nSatellite night-time heat detections over the flare field at roughly 28.91°N, 19.77°E show 3 clusters that stayed lit on at least 5 of the last 30 nights (28 Aug–26 Sep 2026), from 347 hot-night detections. The most persistent cluster was lit on 29 nights and peaked at 127.22 MW. All 3 clusters sit on sites listed in the independent VIIRS Nightfire 2024 annual flare summary, the nearest just 0.15 km away, where the top site was credited with 0.665 billion cubic metres.\n\nWhat this is not: the sensor cannot tell a gas flare from a refinery furnace, a steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — it is the night-after-night persistence plus the match to known flare sites that points to flaring. The heat figure is not a volume: the detector saturates on the biggest flames, and volume estimates come only from the annual summary. Cold venting and unlit methane leaks would be invisible here. No operator or owner is identified; a cluster is a place, not a company.\n\nWhat would change our mind: a volcanic or industrial heat source mapped at these coordinates, or a cloud-free stretch showing the clusters going dark.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Persistent night-time heat clusters: 3 [firms-flaring-flare-lby-28p9n-19p8e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Nights lit (most persistent cluster, of 30): 29 [firms-flaring-flare-lby-28p9n-19p8e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Peak fire radiative power (MW): 127.22 [firms-flaring-flare-lby-28p9n-19p8e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Hot-night detections in the 30-day window: 347 [firms-flaring-flare-lby-28p9n-19p8e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Clusters matching known 2024 flare sites: 3 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-lby-28p9n-19p8e]\n- Top matched site, 2024 flared volume (BCM): 0.665 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-lby-28p9n-19p8e]\n- Distance to nearest known flare site (km): 0.15 [firms-flaring-flare-lby-28p9n-19p8e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n\nConfidence: high\nCaveats:\n- Thermal sensors cannot distinguish a gas flare from a furnace, kiln or volcano; persistence and the site match carry the interpretation.\n- Cloud or heavy smoke hides nights, so a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can mimic a shut-down flare.\n- Radiated heat is not flared volume — the sensor saturates on the largest flames; volume figures come only from the 2024 annual summary.\n- The confirming record is an annual aggregate from 2024: it shows the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week.\n- Only two overpasses per night (~01:30 local); short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed.\n- Unlit venting and cold methane releases are invisible here; pairing with methane sensors would be needed.\n- No operator or ownership attribution is possible from this data.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"e742c5c90b03644dfebe76522f04af0cc49dcf93f594d76d03e195064c51a5d9","transcriptSha256":"4e5d65dd7640f56a36056f1da084a20e63108b5f803d926b576e5fbcde538e89","evidenceRefs":["firms-flaring-flare-lby-28p9n-19p8e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26","eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-lby-28p9n-19p8e"]},"reviews":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df9b-2050-7844-952e-3f6085ddb684","findingId":"01a0df7f-d4fc-715f-834e-f9a754351d75","at":"2026-09-26T21:24:40.656Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"01ee0267c0f50a2c9b3cbb0876745d9716bda4b99f2e86e7c29278e7651e5352","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":2,"note":"All numbers (3 clusters, 29 nights, 127.22 MW, 347 detections, 0.665 BCM, 0.15 km) match the evidence and confirmation signal exactly; Narration transparently covers nearly all blind spots: sensor ambiguity, cloud gaps, FRP vs volume, annual-aggregate limitation, overpass timing, methane invisibility, no attribution; No individuals are named; only site/place-level description; AOI is tagged 'discovered', not 'control', and control field is false, consistent with a live (non-control) finding; Title's framing 'steady flaring, not a new fire' is a reasonable interpretation given persistence data and is appropriately hedged with 'what this is not' and 'what would change our mind' sections","verdict":"publish"}],"notifications":[],"replies":[],"retracted":null,"history":[{"at":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","kind":"created","status":"candidate","actor":"system:flaring@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","kind":"confirmed","status":"confirmed","actor":"system:flaring@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-26T21:24:35.771Z","kind":"narrated","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-opus-5"},{"at":"2026-09-26T21:24:40.656Z","kind":"reviewed","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"},{"at":"2026-09-26T21:24:40.659Z","kind":"status_changed","status":"published","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"}],"eventCount":5,"lastEventHash":"46bce9c1eeebe426154b292cc5c19f57f39cfe42dcb41b3947b651891c96c181"},"events":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df7f-d4fc-78b5-8569-330f4fb62ef4","findingId":"01a0df7f-d4fc-715f-834e-f9a754351d75","at":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","actor":"system:flaring@1.0","prev":null,"kind":"created","rule":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5,"revisitHours":18}},"title":"Persistent flaring in Flare field LBY 28.91, 19.77 (2 VNF sites): 3 cluster(s), up to 29 nights","summary":"3 VIIRS night-time heat cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW persisted on ≥ 5 of the last 30 nights; the most persistent was lit 29 nights (max 127.22 MW). 3 sit on known VNF 2024 flare sites.","tier":2,"geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[19.772,28.91]},"bbox":[19.65,28.8,19.88,29.01],"aoi":{"id":"flare-lby-28p9n-19p8e","name":"Flare field LBY 28.91, 19.77 (2 VNF sites)","tags":["flaring","oil-gas","discovered","lby","lby_ups_19.7736e_28.9105n"]},"observedAt":"2026-09-24T00:00:00Z","evidence":[{"id":"firms-flaring-flare-lby-28p9n-19p8e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-24T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[19.65,28.8,19.88,29.01],"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"limit":20,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5}},"summary":"3 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-28…2026-09-26); top cluster 29 nights, max 127.22 MW at 28.9097, 19.7723.","values":{"hotNightDetections":347,"maxFrp":127.22,"maxNights":29,"persistentClusters":3,"vnfMatched":3,"vnfTopBcm":0.665,"vnfTopKm":0.15,"vnfYear":2024}}],"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[]},"blindSpots":["Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.","Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.","FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.","Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.","No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.","Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.","The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week."]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df7f-d501-70ff-9758-b46e19c1cf16","findingId":"01a0df7f-d4fc-715f-834e-f9a754351d75","at":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","actor":"system:flaring@1.0","prev":"d9509d7b184ae33c5eabd019fc0b51ed1d4c1fd44823ea0ee68828e00c482870","kind":"confirmed","signal":{"id":"eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-lby-28p9n-19p8e","kind":"record","source":"eog-vnf-annual","datetime":"2024-12-31T00:00:00Z","href":"https://eogdata.mines.edu/products/vnf/global_gas_flare.html","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"vnfYear":2024}},"summary":"3 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.665 BCM, 0.15 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary.","values":{"bcm":0.665,"vnfMatched":3}},"independence":"provider"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df9b-0d3b-71d5-8779-c1601d2b2f9e","findingId":"01a0df7f-d4fc-715f-834e-f9a754351d75","at":"2026-09-26T21:24:35.771Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"84b1f90c89c6e6470c5dba823f12dd51399a3a55a05700c1c07bb3e98cd66163","kind":"narrated","text":"Night-time heat burns 29 of 30 nights at a known Libyan flare field — steady flaring, not a new fire\n\nSatellite night-time heat detections over the flare field at roughly 28.91°N, 19.77°E show 3 clusters that stayed lit on at least 5 of the last 30 nights (28 Aug–26 Sep 2026), from 347 hot-night detections. The most persistent cluster was lit on 29 nights and peaked at 127.22 MW. All 3 clusters sit on sites listed in the independent VIIRS Nightfire 2024 annual flare summary, the nearest just 0.15 km away, where the top site was credited with 0.665 billion cubic metres.\n\nWhat this is not: the sensor cannot tell a gas flare from a refinery furnace, a steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — it is the night-after-night persistence plus the match to known flare sites that points to flaring. The heat figure is not a volume: the detector saturates on the biggest flames, and volume estimates come only from the annual summary. Cold venting and unlit methane leaks would be invisible here. No operator or owner is identified; a cluster is a place, not a company.\n\nWhat would change our mind: a volcanic or industrial heat source mapped at these coordinates, or a cloud-free stretch showing the clusters going dark.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Persistent night-time heat clusters: 3 [firms-flaring-flare-lby-28p9n-19p8e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Nights lit (most persistent cluster, of 30): 29 [firms-flaring-flare-lby-28p9n-19p8e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Peak fire radiative power (MW): 127.22 [firms-flaring-flare-lby-28p9n-19p8e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Hot-night detections in the 30-day window: 347 [firms-flaring-flare-lby-28p9n-19p8e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Clusters matching known 2024 flare sites: 3 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-lby-28p9n-19p8e]\n- Top matched site, 2024 flared volume (BCM): 0.665 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-lby-28p9n-19p8e]\n- Distance to nearest known flare site (km): 0.15 [firms-flaring-flare-lby-28p9n-19p8e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n\nConfidence: high\nCaveats:\n- Thermal sensors cannot distinguish a gas flare from a furnace, kiln or volcano; persistence and the site match carry the interpretation.\n- Cloud or heavy smoke hides nights, so a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can mimic a shut-down flare.\n- Radiated heat is not flared volume — the sensor saturates on the largest flames; volume figures come only from the 2024 annual summary.\n- The confirming record is an annual aggregate from 2024: it shows the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week.\n- Only two overpasses per night (~01:30 local); short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed.\n- Unlit venting and cold methane releases are invisible here; pairing with methane sensors would be needed.\n- No operator or ownership attribution is possible from this data.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"e742c5c90b03644dfebe76522f04af0cc49dcf93f594d76d03e195064c51a5d9","transcriptSha256":"4e5d65dd7640f56a36056f1da084a20e63108b5f803d926b576e5fbcde538e89","evidenceRefs":["firms-flaring-flare-lby-28p9n-19p8e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26","eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-lby-28p9n-19p8e"]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df9b-2050-7844-952e-3f6085ddb684","findingId":"01a0df7f-d4fc-715f-834e-f9a754351d75","at":"2026-09-26T21:24:40.656Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"01ee0267c0f50a2c9b3cbb0876745d9716bda4b99f2e86e7c29278e7651e5352","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":2,"note":"All numbers (3 clusters, 29 nights, 127.22 MW, 347 detections, 0.665 BCM, 0.15 km) match the evidence and confirmation signal exactly; Narration transparently covers nearly all blind spots: sensor ambiguity, cloud gaps, FRP vs volume, annual-aggregate limitation, overpass timing, methane invisibility, no attribution; No individuals are named; only site/place-level description; AOI is tagged 'discovered', not 'control', and control field is false, consistent with a live (non-control) finding; Title's framing 'steady flaring, not a new fire' is a reasonable interpretation given persistence data and is appropriately hedged with 'what this is not' and 'what would change our mind' sections","verdict":"publish"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df9b-2052-7364-8135-463f71118dcb","findingId":"01a0df7f-d4fc-715f-834e-f9a754351d75","at":"2026-09-26T21:24:40.659Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"db6ad8ce7d7d1b11bb3e0735240215bfc3984c57b3d1f508f88e9cf0c917fbd1","kind":"status_changed","from":"confirmed","to":"published","reason":"autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)","gates":{"narratedBy":"model:claude-opus-5","reviewedBy":["model:claude-sonnet-5"],"policy":"2026-09-26-autonomous"}}],"inclusion":{"index":157,"leafHash":"e2503016c989a37a01c44378691120e94e98b5ead52df11c54c2026585061de0","proof":["834c00854fde4ece5fe9eecedd38c8226f3d1680c05e2665792c336617cd0d54","aae577f89500475c05f3c27ffcc625656db3aaa76cdb7b96d84189136cb209d8","61ab4a67ab6b47bea2be3a14af856cfb19c31393ee3e064ec00e0a4485e67165","cb2a066495c5aaafbfe7da55c484ec7f0e77bcccc83f0b9f3cff939a855bc422","7213f06b8d14ed3a5b1156a9a9f6238adf157cc0c75ba48bad6be9c01e35759f","ea90af85b57fc2296d71cae3061ddb7573bdaad07fb8fd70a326eb6bfa8a0b0d","1e6b35b77ca24da32136c1f20f9724e4c9e881569d9550e8b5024cf584b97d34"],"size":164,"root":"dee55129d59500208cbd618b2eb9683ec760a3615c26b3a57a3469f08aff9240"}}