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Published

Night-time heat source burns 7 of 30 nights at a known Angolan flare site

Flare field AGO -6.86, 12.39 (6 VNF sites) · seen · published

Night-time satellite heat detections over the flare field near -6.86, 12.39 in Angola show one cluster lit on 7 of the last 30 nights (28 August to 26 September 2026), peaking at 43.02 MW of fire radiative power, from 49 hot-night detections. The cluster sits 0.17 km from a site in the 2024 VIIRS Nightfire annual flare summary, which logged 0.578 billion cubic metres at that site — an independent provider record that the spot is a known flare.

What it may not be: the sensor sees heat, not equipment. A furnace, refinery or kiln would look much the same; only persistence and the known-site match argue 'flare'. The heat figure is not a volume, and the instrument can saturate on large flares. Unlit venting and cold methane releases are invisible. Cloud or smoke hides nights, so gaps need not mean a flare stopped. The 2024 record proves a past year, not this week.

What would change our mind: asset-registry evidence of a non-flare heat source, methane observations (S5P/EMIT) pointing to unlit venting instead, or a clear-sky month with no repeat detections at the cluster.

Written by AI, then checked by a separate reviewer before publication. Every claim points at the evidence below.

Cloud-free satellite view around Flare field AGO -6.86, 12.39 (6 VNF sites), with the finding area outlined
6.85°S 12.41°ENASA Blue Marble via GIBS · outline = finding area

What we saw

  • NASA fire detections — 1 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-28…2026-09-26); top cluster 7 nights, max 43.02 MW at -6.8573, 12.3934. (Sep 21, 2026) See the source ↗
  • Gas-flare detections (VIIRS Nightfire) — 1 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.578 BCM, 0.17 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary. (Dec 31, 2024) See the source ↗

What it might not be

  • Thermal sensors cannot separate a gas flare from a furnace, kiln or volcano; the flare reading rests on persistence plus the known-site match.
  • Fire radiative power is not flared volume; the sensor can saturate on the largest flares.
  • Cloud or smoke hides nights, so persistence counts can be undercounts.
  • Only two overpasses per night (~01:30 local); short or intermittent burning between passes is missed.
  • The confirming record is a 2024 annual aggregate — it shows a known flare site, not activity this week.
  • Unlit venting and cold methane releases are invisible here; pair with methane sounders.
  • No operator or ownership attribution: this is a place, not a company.
  • Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.
  • Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.
  • FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.
  • Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.
  • No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.
  • Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.
  • The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week.

What would change our mind

Newer satellite images that show no change, a correction from the data source, or a reply with evidence from the ground. If that happens, the case is marked “Turned out wrong” — in public — and it stays on this site.

Why this was published

Two separate sources agreed — NASA fire detections, then Gas-flare detections (VIIRS Nightfire) — and a reviewer checked the evidence before it went up.

Right of reply

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Ledger id 01a0df7f-c581-71a3-a96d-ed8a75bf8f20

Technical details rule, evidence ids, history, proof
Rule
flaring v1.0
Tier
T2
Tags
flaring, oil-gas, discovered, ago, ago_ups_12.3922e_6.8563s
Confirmed
Yes — independent provider signal, 2026-09-26
Rule FP rate
9.1 % · 1 of 11 decided
Location
6.85°S 12.41°E
Observed
2026-09-21
Opened
2026-09-26 by automatic rule flaring v1.0
  1. candidate
  2. confirmed
  3. published
  4. resolved

Evidence2

alertfirms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt

1 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-28…2026-09-26); top cluster 7 nights, max 43.02 MW at -6.8573, 12.3934.

hotNightDetections 49maxFrp 43.02maxNights 7persistentClusters 1vnfMatched 1vnfTopBcm 0.578vnfTopKm 0.17vnfYear 2024
· flaring v1.0 · firms-flaring-flare-ago-6p9s-12p4e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26
Source ↗
recordeog-vnf-annualConfirming signal

1 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.578 BCM, 0.17 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary.

bcm 0.578vnfMatched 1
· flaring v1.0 · eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-ago-6p9s-12p4e
Source ↗

Context

ENSO El Niño · ONI +1.8

Publication gates

  • Evidence — 1 piece from firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt — met
  • Independent confirmation — a different provider (eog-vnf-annual), 2026-09-26 — met
  • Human approval — 1 of 2 needed at tier 2 — not met
  • Narration — AI-drafted by claude-opus-5 — met
Published
2026-09-26 by AI model
Narrated By
AI model
Reviewed By
AI model
Policy
2026-09-26-autonomous
Note
autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)

History5

  1. status changed → publishedAI model
  2. reviewed → confirmedAI model
  3. narrated → confirmedAI model
  4. confirmed → confirmedautomatic rule flaring v1.0
  5. created → candidateautomatic rule flaring v1.0

Verify

Checkpoint
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1 · 164 entries
Signed root
dee55129d595…ff9240
This case
5 signed events
Leaf
#154 of 164 — this case’s latest event
Leaf hash
f8241184c140…892b5e
Proof
7-hash audit path
  1. de1799a5c1037fe4d061638379973d35dd2b4fb1c4eb366b1d6c574d6143c4a2
  2. 03e9b04265a09f7dc6197598b5eb5b62f2d37696dbe0e9c1e108c8a4a2ea3c61
  3. b5798429fd11cb2f551d3698ac999f45cb87365608f06282501a07faff2db7f6
  4. cb2a066495c5aaafbfe7da55c484ec7f0e77bcccc83f0b9f3cff939a855bc422
  5. 7213f06b8d14ed3a5b1156a9a9f6238adf157cc0c75ba48bad6be9c01e35759f
  6. ea90af85b57fc2296d71cae3061ddb7573bdaad07fb8fd70a326eb6bfa8a0b0d
  7. 1e6b35b77ca24da32136c1f20f9724e4c9e881569d9550e8b5024cf584b97d34
Last event
6a13ec65c132…57ae31
Note
Checkpoint text
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1
164
3uVRKdWVACCMvWGLLrloPsdgo2FcJrOlejRp8Ir/kkA=

— earthdeck TkCXv1RvXauCpUiWuk11ZCqwdoBJwbds1eETDZCkAWnWOFvcgHuHpllz0Q9kEbLx6iBG7M0UPs+Ejc/MfFN6WPWxNQA=

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