{"finding":{"findingId":"01a0df7f-c581-71a3-a96d-ed8a75bf8f20","status":"published","tier":2,"rule":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5,"revisitHours":18}},"title":"Persistent flaring in Flare field AGO -6.86, 12.39 (6 VNF sites): 1 cluster(s), up to 7 nights","summary":"1 VIIRS night-time heat cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW persisted on ≥ 5 of the last 30 nights; the most persistent was lit 7 nights (max 43.02 MW). 1 sit on known VNF 2024 flare sites.","geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[12.393,-6.857]},"bbox":[12.3,-6.96,12.53,-6.74],"aoi":{"id":"flare-ago-6p9s-12p4e","name":"Flare field AGO -6.86, 12.39 (6 VNF sites)","tags":["flaring","oil-gas","discovered","ago","ago_ups_12.3922e_6.8563s"]},"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[]},"blindSpots":["Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.","Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.","FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.","Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.","No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.","Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.","The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week."],"observedAt":"2026-09-21T00:00:00Z","createdAt":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-26T21:24:18.213Z","createdBy":"system:flaring@1.0","confirmed":{"at":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","independence":"provider","signal":{"id":"eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-ago-6p9s-12p4e","kind":"record","source":"eog-vnf-annual","datetime":"2024-12-31T00:00:00Z","href":"https://eogdata.mines.edu/products/vnf/global_gas_flare.html","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"vnfYear":2024}},"summary":"1 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.578 BCM, 0.17 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary.","values":{"bcm":0.578,"vnfMatched":1}}},"evidence":[{"id":"firms-flaring-flare-ago-6p9s-12p4e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-21T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[12.3,-6.96,12.53,-6.74],"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"limit":20,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5}},"summary":"1 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-28…2026-09-26); top cluster 7 nights, max 43.02 MW at -6.8573, 12.3934.","values":{"hotNightDetections":49,"maxFrp":43.02,"maxNights":7,"persistentClusters":1,"vnfMatched":1,"vnfTopBcm":0.578,"vnfTopKm":0.17,"vnfYear":2024}}],"attribution":null,"narration":{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df9a-b81f-7833-893a-e1ed5ff8e563","findingId":"01a0df7f-c581-71a3-a96d-ed8a75bf8f20","at":"2026-09-26T21:24:13.983Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"0050acf64bb711c66a67e5dc1713bf0e271c902c86623832be1812bbf88e8fbf","kind":"narrated","text":"Night-time heat source burns 7 of 30 nights at a known Angolan flare site\n\nNight-time satellite heat detections over the flare field near -6.86, 12.39 in Angola show one cluster lit on 7 of the last 30 nights (28 August to 26 September 2026), peaking at 43.02 MW of fire radiative power, from 49 hot-night detections. The cluster sits 0.17 km from a site in the 2024 VIIRS Nightfire annual flare summary, which logged 0.578 billion cubic metres at that site — an independent provider record that the spot is a known flare.\n\nWhat it may not be: the sensor sees heat, not equipment. A furnace, refinery or kiln would look much the same; only persistence and the known-site match argue 'flare'. The heat figure is not a volume, and the instrument can saturate on large flares. Unlit venting and cold methane releases are invisible. Cloud or smoke hides nights, so gaps need not mean a flare stopped. The 2024 record proves a past year, not this week.\n\nWhat would change our mind: asset-registry evidence of a non-flare heat source, methane observations (S5P/EMIT) pointing to unlit venting instead, or a clear-sky month with no repeat detections at the cluster.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Nights lit (of 30): 7 [firms-flaring-flare-ago-6p9s-12p4e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Peak fire radiative power (MW): 43.02 [firms-flaring-flare-ago-6p9s-12p4e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Persistent clusters: 1 [firms-flaring-flare-ago-6p9s-12p4e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Hot-night detections: 49 [firms-flaring-flare-ago-6p9s-12p4e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Distance to known VNF flare site (km): 0.17 [firms-flaring-flare-ago-6p9s-12p4e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- VNF 2024 top site volume (BCM): 0.578 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-ago-6p9s-12p4e]\n\nConfidence: medium\nCaveats:\n- Thermal sensors cannot separate a gas flare from a furnace, kiln or volcano; the flare reading rests on persistence plus the known-site match.\n- Fire radiative power is not flared volume; the sensor can saturate on the largest flares.\n- Cloud or smoke hides nights, so persistence counts can be undercounts.\n- Only two overpasses per night (~01:30 local); short or intermittent burning between passes is missed.\n- The confirming record is a 2024 annual aggregate — it shows a known flare site, not activity this week.\n- Unlit venting and cold methane releases are invisible here; pair with methane sounders.\n- No operator or ownership attribution: this is a place, not a company.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"ca67a1236b61b29b155b45ed8beb1f73952b231caa442c2c4f31f78987b5251f","transcriptSha256":"52d7d89d6643af16fb92e964a9233b13cd23de7ff9f0ecf3e967a49faa6c874e","evidenceRefs":["firms-flaring-flare-ago-6p9s-12p4e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26","eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-ago-6p9s-12p4e"]},"reviews":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df9a-c8a2-7ee2-8179-26d02ac151ca","findingId":"01a0df7f-c581-71a3-a96d-ed8a75bf8f20","at":"2026-09-26T21:24:18.210Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"57b8cd97152f23b2386f0348f1e2c7df42313fd9c210eb9373e12f62ff2dd5bb","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":2,"note":"All numbers (7 nights, 43.02 MW, 49 detections, 1 cluster, 0.17 km, 0.578 BCM) match the evidence and confirmation records exactly; Narration clearly discloses blind spots: heat vs equipment ambiguity, FRP not volume, saturation, cloud undercounting, overpass gaps, aggregate-vs-current-week caveat, no venting/methane detection, no ownership attribution; No individuals or companies named, only a place-based cluster; AOI is tagged as discovered/oil-gas, not control, consistent with a non-control finding suitable for publication","verdict":"publish"}],"notifications":[],"replies":[],"retracted":null,"history":[{"at":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","kind":"created","status":"candidate","actor":"system:flaring@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","kind":"confirmed","status":"confirmed","actor":"system:flaring@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-26T21:24:13.983Z","kind":"narrated","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-opus-5"},{"at":"2026-09-26T21:24:18.210Z","kind":"reviewed","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"},{"at":"2026-09-26T21:24:18.213Z","kind":"status_changed","status":"published","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"}],"eventCount":5,"lastEventHash":"6a13ec65c132bf3ee98adcefa626ff5f758ece78e4fc6615c8fe92836557ae31"},"events":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df7f-c581-76ba-b3ec-728c7bf21eef","findingId":"01a0df7f-c581-71a3-a96d-ed8a75bf8f20","at":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","actor":"system:flaring@1.0","prev":null,"kind":"created","rule":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5,"revisitHours":18}},"title":"Persistent flaring in Flare field AGO -6.86, 12.39 (6 VNF sites): 1 cluster(s), up to 7 nights","summary":"1 VIIRS night-time heat cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW persisted on ≥ 5 of the last 30 nights; the most persistent was lit 7 nights (max 43.02 MW). 1 sit on known VNF 2024 flare sites.","tier":2,"geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[12.393,-6.857]},"bbox":[12.3,-6.96,12.53,-6.74],"aoi":{"id":"flare-ago-6p9s-12p4e","name":"Flare field AGO -6.86, 12.39 (6 VNF sites)","tags":["flaring","oil-gas","discovered","ago","ago_ups_12.3922e_6.8563s"]},"observedAt":"2026-09-21T00:00:00Z","evidence":[{"id":"firms-flaring-flare-ago-6p9s-12p4e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-21T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[12.3,-6.96,12.53,-6.74],"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"limit":20,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5}},"summary":"1 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-28…2026-09-26); top cluster 7 nights, max 43.02 MW at -6.8573, 12.3934.","values":{"hotNightDetections":49,"maxFrp":43.02,"maxNights":7,"persistentClusters":1,"vnfMatched":1,"vnfTopBcm":0.578,"vnfTopKm":0.17,"vnfYear":2024}}],"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[]},"blindSpots":["Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.","Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.","FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.","Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.","No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.","Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.","The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week."]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df7f-c584-7e21-a7e1-8d357ba3bd14","findingId":"01a0df7f-c581-71a3-a96d-ed8a75bf8f20","at":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","actor":"system:flaring@1.0","prev":"30fc602478c6666a026a5a2df09c6dc67848d7d734fa62e2b7ec7eb88dfc2ec5","kind":"confirmed","signal":{"id":"eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-ago-6p9s-12p4e","kind":"record","source":"eog-vnf-annual","datetime":"2024-12-31T00:00:00Z","href":"https://eogdata.mines.edu/products/vnf/global_gas_flare.html","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"vnfYear":2024}},"summary":"1 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.578 BCM, 0.17 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary.","values":{"bcm":0.578,"vnfMatched":1}},"independence":"provider"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df9a-b81f-7833-893a-e1ed5ff8e563","findingId":"01a0df7f-c581-71a3-a96d-ed8a75bf8f20","at":"2026-09-26T21:24:13.983Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"0050acf64bb711c66a67e5dc1713bf0e271c902c86623832be1812bbf88e8fbf","kind":"narrated","text":"Night-time heat source burns 7 of 30 nights at a known Angolan flare site\n\nNight-time satellite heat detections over the flare field near -6.86, 12.39 in Angola show one cluster lit on 7 of the last 30 nights (28 August to 26 September 2026), peaking at 43.02 MW of fire radiative power, from 49 hot-night detections. The cluster sits 0.17 km from a site in the 2024 VIIRS Nightfire annual flare summary, which logged 0.578 billion cubic metres at that site — an independent provider record that the spot is a known flare.\n\nWhat it may not be: the sensor sees heat, not equipment. A furnace, refinery or kiln would look much the same; only persistence and the known-site match argue 'flare'. The heat figure is not a volume, and the instrument can saturate on large flares. Unlit venting and cold methane releases are invisible. Cloud or smoke hides nights, so gaps need not mean a flare stopped. The 2024 record proves a past year, not this week.\n\nWhat would change our mind: asset-registry evidence of a non-flare heat source, methane observations (S5P/EMIT) pointing to unlit venting instead, or a clear-sky month with no repeat detections at the cluster.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Nights lit (of 30): 7 [firms-flaring-flare-ago-6p9s-12p4e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Peak fire radiative power (MW): 43.02 [firms-flaring-flare-ago-6p9s-12p4e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Persistent clusters: 1 [firms-flaring-flare-ago-6p9s-12p4e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Hot-night detections: 49 [firms-flaring-flare-ago-6p9s-12p4e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Distance to known VNF flare site (km): 0.17 [firms-flaring-flare-ago-6p9s-12p4e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- VNF 2024 top site volume (BCM): 0.578 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-ago-6p9s-12p4e]\n\nConfidence: medium\nCaveats:\n- Thermal sensors cannot separate a gas flare from a furnace, kiln or volcano; the flare reading rests on persistence plus the known-site match.\n- Fire radiative power is not flared volume; the sensor can saturate on the largest flares.\n- Cloud or smoke hides nights, so persistence counts can be undercounts.\n- Only two overpasses per night (~01:30 local); short or intermittent burning between passes is missed.\n- The confirming record is a 2024 annual aggregate — it shows a known flare site, not activity this week.\n- Unlit venting and cold methane releases are invisible here; pair with methane sounders.\n- No operator or ownership attribution: this is a place, not a company.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"ca67a1236b61b29b155b45ed8beb1f73952b231caa442c2c4f31f78987b5251f","transcriptSha256":"52d7d89d6643af16fb92e964a9233b13cd23de7ff9f0ecf3e967a49faa6c874e","evidenceRefs":["firms-flaring-flare-ago-6p9s-12p4e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26","eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-ago-6p9s-12p4e"]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df9a-c8a2-7ee2-8179-26d02ac151ca","findingId":"01a0df7f-c581-71a3-a96d-ed8a75bf8f20","at":"2026-09-26T21:24:18.210Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"57b8cd97152f23b2386f0348f1e2c7df42313fd9c210eb9373e12f62ff2dd5bb","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":2,"note":"All numbers (7 nights, 43.02 MW, 49 detections, 1 cluster, 0.17 km, 0.578 BCM) match the evidence and confirmation records exactly; Narration clearly discloses blind spots: heat vs equipment ambiguity, FRP not volume, saturation, cloud undercounting, overpass gaps, aggregate-vs-current-week caveat, no venting/methane detection, no ownership attribution; No individuals or companies named, only a place-based cluster; AOI is tagged as discovered/oil-gas, not control, consistent with a non-control finding suitable for publication","verdict":"publish"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df9a-c8a5-75ed-9c57-e2c560e6d78c","findingId":"01a0df7f-c581-71a3-a96d-ed8a75bf8f20","at":"2026-09-26T21:24:18.213Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"0b839c89d59622c71f30d4992d1e0e591ec1ca8a2074ede991de5d7ecffc928b","kind":"status_changed","from":"confirmed","to":"published","reason":"autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)","gates":{"narratedBy":"model:claude-opus-5","reviewedBy":["model:claude-sonnet-5"],"policy":"2026-09-26-autonomous"}}],"inclusion":{"index":154,"leafHash":"f8241184c1407346cc645e98d634bedf9cfdbf3dc0ab3ac06445b03645892b5e","proof":["de1799a5c1037fe4d061638379973d35dd2b4fb1c4eb366b1d6c574d6143c4a2","03e9b04265a09f7dc6197598b5eb5b62f2d37696dbe0e9c1e108c8a4a2ea3c61","b5798429fd11cb2f551d3698ac999f45cb87365608f06282501a07faff2db7f6","cb2a066495c5aaafbfe7da55c484ec7f0e77bcccc83f0b9f3cff939a855bc422","7213f06b8d14ed3a5b1156a9a9f6238adf157cc0c75ba48bad6be9c01e35759f","ea90af85b57fc2296d71cae3061ddb7573bdaad07fb8fd70a326eb6bfa8a0b0d","1e6b35b77ca24da32136c1f20f9724e4c9e881569d9550e8b5024cf584b97d34"],"size":164,"root":"dee55129d59500208cbd618b2eb9683ec760a3615c26b3a57a3469f08aff9240"}}