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Published

Twelve night-time heat sources burn steadily over a known Iranian flare field, one lit 28 nights in 30

Flare field IRN 27.51, 52.64 (12 VNF sites) · seen · published

Between 28 August and 26 September 2026, night-time infrared sensors on the NOAA-20 and NOAA-21 satellites recorded 649 hot-night detections over a roughly 30 km-wide area near 27.51N, 52.64E. These grouped into 12 clusters that each burned at 5 MW or more on at least 5 of 30 nights. The most persistent was lit on 28 of those nights, peaking at 27.8 MW; the brightest single reading anywhere in the box was 137.29 MW. All 12 clusters fall on sites already listed in the Earth Observation Group's 2024 global flare summary, the nearest match 0.65 km away and credited with 0.268 billion cubic metres of gas that year.

What this is not: thermal sensors cannot separate a gas flare from a refinery furnace or a kiln, so persistence plus the flare-site match is the argument, not proof. Brightness is not volume — the sensor saturates on big flares. Cloud can hide nights and make steady flaring look intermittent, and cold venting of methane is invisible here. A cluster is a place, not an operator.

What would change our mind: a cloud-free month showing the clusters dark, an asset registry identifying non-flare industry at these coordinates, or methane sensing that contradicts combustion.

Written by AI, then checked by a separate reviewer before publication. Every claim points at the evidence below.

Cloud-free satellite view around Flare field IRN 27.51, 52.64 (12 VNF sites), with the finding area outlined
27.54°N 52.59°ENASA Blue Marble via GIBS · outline = finding area

What we saw

  • NASA fire detections — 12 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-28…2026-09-26); top cluster 28 nights, max 27.8 MW at 27.5105, 52.6262. (Sep 25, 2026) See the source ↗
  • Gas-flare detections (VIIRS Nightfire) — 12 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.268 BCM, 0.65 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary. (Dec 31, 2024) See the source ↗

What it might not be

  • Thermal signal alone cannot distinguish a flare from a furnace, refinery or kiln.
  • Radiative power is not flared volume; the sensor saturates on the largest flares.
  • Cloud or smoke can hide nights and under-count persistence.
  • The flare-site confirmation is a 2024 annual aggregate: it shows the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week.
  • Only two satellite passes per night; short or intermittent burning between passes is missed.
  • No operator or ownership attribution — each cluster is a location, not a company.
  • Unlit venting of gas is invisible to thermal sensors and would need methane sensing.
  • Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.
  • Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.
  • FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.
  • Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.
  • No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.
  • Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.
  • The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week.

What would change our mind

Newer satellite images that show no change, a correction from the data source, or a reply with evidence from the ground. If that happens, the case is marked “Turned out wrong” — in public — and it stays on this site.

Why this was published

Two separate sources agreed — NASA fire detections, then Gas-flare detections (VIIRS Nightfire) — and a reviewer checked the evidence before it went up.

Right of reply

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Ledger id 01a0df7f-b6cc-734a-aa32-b840851cf0d5

Technical details rule, evidence ids, history, proof
Rule
flaring v1.0
Tier
T2
Tags
flaring, oil-gas, discovered, irn, irn_ups_52.6363e_27.5070n
Confirmed
Yes — independent provider signal, 2026-09-26
Rule FP rate
9.1 % · 1 of 11 decided
Location
27.54°N 52.59°E
Observed
2026-09-25
Opened
2026-09-26 by automatic rule flaring v1.0
  1. candidate
  2. confirmed
  3. published
  4. resolved

Evidence2

alertfirms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt

12 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-28…2026-09-26); top cluster 28 nights, max 27.8 MW at 27.5105, 52.6262.

hotNightDetections 649maxFrp 137.29maxNights 28persistentClusters 12vnfMatched 12vnfTopBcm 0.268vnfTopKm 0.65vnfYear 2024
· flaring v1.0 · firms-flaring-flare-irn-27p5n-52p6e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26
Source ↗
recordeog-vnf-annualConfirming signal

12 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.268 BCM, 0.65 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary.

bcm 0.268vnfMatched 12
· flaring v1.0 · eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-27p5n-52p6e
Source ↗

Context

ENSO El Niño · ONI +1.8

Publication gates

  • Evidence — 1 piece from firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt — met
  • Independent confirmation — a different provider (eog-vnf-annual), 2026-09-26 — met
  • Human approval — 1 of 2 needed at tier 2 — not met
  • Narration — AI-drafted by claude-opus-5 — met
Published
2026-09-26 by AI model
Narrated By
AI model
Reviewed By
AI model
Policy
2026-09-26-autonomous
Note
autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)

History5

  1. status changed → publishedAI model
  2. reviewed → confirmedAI model
  3. narrated → confirmedAI model
  4. confirmed → confirmedautomatic rule flaring v1.0
  5. created → candidateautomatic rule flaring v1.0

Verify

Checkpoint
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1 · 164 entries
Signed root
dee55129d595…ff9240
This case
5 signed events
Leaf
#151 of 164 — this case’s latest event
Leaf hash
27f70ee908e4…c41788
Proof
7-hash audit path
  1. 74d4f68301456c8835634fa37cf5177a45c8d18a1e7ba9fa75247c5deff16851
  2. 7275aabee25c0bc2d62cd38fdcafa06e36323787cb70fdcb09a4b47a76b0b700
  3. 464f3970f7f0690f4b379b7a9abff2586174b74cba7dd227c33a40e1fc7d9ad3
  4. 091987b67514d05c82bdfea6d21d966a076edd1e18382a6c96bfd4716be39ffd
  5. 7213f06b8d14ed3a5b1156a9a9f6238adf157cc0c75ba48bad6be9c01e35759f
  6. ea90af85b57fc2296d71cae3061ddb7573bdaad07fb8fd70a326eb6bfa8a0b0d
  7. 1e6b35b77ca24da32136c1f20f9724e4c9e881569d9550e8b5024cf584b97d34
Last event
37ed7e9c5697…9cae29
Note
Checkpoint text
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1
164
3uVRKdWVACCMvWGLLrloPsdgo2FcJrOlejRp8Ir/kkA=

— earthdeck TkCXv1RvXauCpUiWuk11ZCqwdoBJwbds1eETDZCkAWnWOFvcgHuHpllz0Q9kEbLx6iBG7M0UPs+Ejc/MfFN6WPWxNQA=

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