{"finding":{"findingId":"01a0df7f-b6cc-734a-aa32-b840851cf0d5","status":"published","tier":2,"rule":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5,"revisitHours":18}},"title":"Persistent flaring in Flare field IRN 27.51, 52.64 (12 VNF sites): 12 cluster(s), up to 28 nights","summary":"12 VIIRS night-time heat cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW persisted on ≥ 5 of the last 30 nights; the most persistent was lit 28 nights (max 27.8 MW). 12 sit on known VNF 2024 flare sites.","geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[52.626,27.511]},"bbox":[52.43,27.39,52.75,27.68],"aoi":{"id":"flare-irn-27p5n-52p6e","name":"Flare field IRN 27.51, 52.64 (12 VNF sites)","tags":["flaring","oil-gas","discovered","irn","irn_ups_52.6363e_27.5070n"]},"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[]},"blindSpots":["Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.","Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.","FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.","Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.","No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.","Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.","The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week."],"observedAt":"2026-09-25T00:00:00Z","createdAt":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-26T21:23:43.068Z","createdBy":"system:flaring@1.0","confirmed":{"at":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","independence":"provider","signal":{"id":"eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-27p5n-52p6e","kind":"record","source":"eog-vnf-annual","datetime":"2024-12-31T00:00:00Z","href":"https://eogdata.mines.edu/products/vnf/global_gas_flare.html","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"vnfYear":2024}},"summary":"12 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.268 BCM, 0.65 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary.","values":{"bcm":0.268,"vnfMatched":12}}},"evidence":[{"id":"firms-flaring-flare-irn-27p5n-52p6e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-25T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[52.43,27.39,52.75,27.68],"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"limit":20,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5}},"summary":"12 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-28…2026-09-26); top cluster 28 nights, max 27.8 MW at 27.5105, 52.6262.","values":{"hotNightDetections":649,"maxFrp":137.29,"maxNights":28,"persistentClusters":12,"vnfMatched":12,"vnfTopBcm":0.268,"vnfTopKm":0.65,"vnfYear":2024}}],"attribution":null,"narration":{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df99-ff41-79b4-8a65-b82f534e5cd7","findingId":"01a0df7f-b6cc-734a-aa32-b840851cf0d5","at":"2026-09-26T21:23:26.657Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"6c651fc6562f900e6900b8f7577dbcc78716ab0bb8867b8c5c89cb32372be3e8","kind":"narrated","text":"Twelve night-time heat sources burn steadily over a known Iranian flare field, one lit 28 nights in 30\n\nBetween 28 August and 26 September 2026, night-time infrared sensors on the NOAA-20 and NOAA-21 satellites recorded 649 hot-night detections over a roughly 30 km-wide area near 27.51N, 52.64E. These grouped into 12 clusters that each burned at 5 MW or more on at least 5 of 30 nights. The most persistent was lit on 28 of those nights, peaking at 27.8 MW; the brightest single reading anywhere in the box was 137.29 MW. All 12 clusters fall on sites already listed in the Earth Observation Group's 2024 global flare summary, the nearest match 0.65 km away and credited with 0.268 billion cubic metres of gas that year.\n\nWhat this is not: thermal sensors cannot separate a gas flare from a refinery furnace or a kiln, so persistence plus the flare-site match is the argument, not proof. Brightness is not volume — the sensor saturates on big flares. Cloud can hide nights and make steady flaring look intermittent, and cold venting of methane is invisible here. A cluster is a place, not an operator.\n\nWhat would change our mind: a cloud-free month showing the clusters dark, an asset registry identifying non-flare industry at these coordinates, or methane sensing that contradicts combustion.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Persistent night-time clusters: 12 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-27p5n-52p6e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Nights lit, most persistent cluster (of 30): 28 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-27p5n-52p6e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Peak radiative power of top cluster (MW): 27.8 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-27p5n-52p6e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Highest single-pixel radiative power in box (MW): 137.29 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-27p5n-52p6e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Hot-night detections in 30 days: 649 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-27p5n-52p6e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Clusters matching known 2024 flare sites: 12 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-27p5n-52p6e]\n- Gas flared at top matched site in 2024 (BCM): 0.268 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-27p5n-52p6e]\n\nConfidence: high\nCaveats:\n- Thermal signal alone cannot distinguish a flare from a furnace, refinery or kiln.\n- Radiative power is not flared volume; the sensor saturates on the largest flares.\n- Cloud or smoke can hide nights and under-count persistence.\n- The flare-site confirmation is a 2024 annual aggregate: it shows the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week.\n- Only two satellite passes per night; short or intermittent burning between passes is missed.\n- No operator or ownership attribution — each cluster is a location, not a company.\n- Unlit venting of gas is invisible to thermal sensors and would need methane sensing.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"9483c08429884083a6eb40439e4330d8378a26a8525b66e42e98955e5c28a4f8","transcriptSha256":"48ed0c8ee3703aebb91403a8f9dc8ce62118aaf9ee3b90a1e7c810686a45726b","evidenceRefs":["firms-flaring-flare-irn-27p5n-52p6e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26","eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-27p5n-52p6e"]},"reviews":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df9a-3f59-70b7-8e7e-e934b7fe60b7","findingId":"01a0df7f-b6cc-734a-aa32-b840851cf0d5","at":"2026-09-26T21:23:43.065Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"dc54889cd5e4498db9897521e4cd2ecd99a467757f5bd93edb2390f1b48ae6dd","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":2,"note":"All quantitative claims (12 clusters, 28 nights, 27.8 MW, 137.29 MW, 649 detections, 0.268 BCM, 0.65 km) match the evidence values exactly.; Narration explicitly states the flare-vs-other-thermal-source ambiguity, cloud under-counting, FRP-vs-volume distinction, saturation, unlit venting, and lack of operator attribution — matching the blind spots list.; No individual person is named or identifiable; only satellite/agency sources are credited.; AOI tags are ['flaring','oil-gas','discovered','irn', site id] and control:false — this is not a control site, so it is fit for publication as a real finding.","verdict":"publish"}],"notifications":[],"replies":[],"retracted":null,"history":[{"at":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","kind":"created","status":"candidate","actor":"system:flaring@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","kind":"confirmed","status":"confirmed","actor":"system:flaring@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-26T21:23:26.657Z","kind":"narrated","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-opus-5"},{"at":"2026-09-26T21:23:43.065Z","kind":"reviewed","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"},{"at":"2026-09-26T21:23:43.068Z","kind":"status_changed","status":"published","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"}],"eventCount":5,"lastEventHash":"37ed7e9c5697d475fe12cc92781b1812f4c05939e407b64e90866149339cae29"},"events":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df7f-b6cc-7282-95ec-500c662c77a1","findingId":"01a0df7f-b6cc-734a-aa32-b840851cf0d5","at":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","actor":"system:flaring@1.0","prev":null,"kind":"created","rule":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5,"revisitHours":18}},"title":"Persistent flaring in Flare field IRN 27.51, 52.64 (12 VNF sites): 12 cluster(s), up to 28 nights","summary":"12 VIIRS night-time heat cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW persisted on ≥ 5 of the last 30 nights; the most persistent was lit 28 nights (max 27.8 MW). 12 sit on known VNF 2024 flare sites.","tier":2,"geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[52.626,27.511]},"bbox":[52.43,27.39,52.75,27.68],"aoi":{"id":"flare-irn-27p5n-52p6e","name":"Flare field IRN 27.51, 52.64 (12 VNF sites)","tags":["flaring","oil-gas","discovered","irn","irn_ups_52.6363e_27.5070n"]},"observedAt":"2026-09-25T00:00:00Z","evidence":[{"id":"firms-flaring-flare-irn-27p5n-52p6e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-25T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[52.43,27.39,52.75,27.68],"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"limit":20,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5}},"summary":"12 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-28…2026-09-26); top cluster 28 nights, max 27.8 MW at 27.5105, 52.6262.","values":{"hotNightDetections":649,"maxFrp":137.29,"maxNights":28,"persistentClusters":12,"vnfMatched":12,"vnfTopBcm":0.268,"vnfTopKm":0.65,"vnfYear":2024}}],"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[]},"blindSpots":["Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.","Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.","FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.","Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.","No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.","Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.","The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week."]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df7f-b6cf-7b25-82d0-3ad091512494","findingId":"01a0df7f-b6cc-734a-aa32-b840851cf0d5","at":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","actor":"system:flaring@1.0","prev":"ff527516eff434511c8df17f2017ec0fe4fd8a75aa6531e4bf46399bb88b158f","kind":"confirmed","signal":{"id":"eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-27p5n-52p6e","kind":"record","source":"eog-vnf-annual","datetime":"2024-12-31T00:00:00Z","href":"https://eogdata.mines.edu/products/vnf/global_gas_flare.html","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"vnfYear":2024}},"summary":"12 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.268 BCM, 0.65 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary.","values":{"bcm":0.268,"vnfMatched":12}},"independence":"provider"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df99-ff41-79b4-8a65-b82f534e5cd7","findingId":"01a0df7f-b6cc-734a-aa32-b840851cf0d5","at":"2026-09-26T21:23:26.657Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"6c651fc6562f900e6900b8f7577dbcc78716ab0bb8867b8c5c89cb32372be3e8","kind":"narrated","text":"Twelve night-time heat sources burn steadily over a known Iranian flare field, one lit 28 nights in 30\n\nBetween 28 August and 26 September 2026, night-time infrared sensors on the NOAA-20 and NOAA-21 satellites recorded 649 hot-night detections over a roughly 30 km-wide area near 27.51N, 52.64E. These grouped into 12 clusters that each burned at 5 MW or more on at least 5 of 30 nights. The most persistent was lit on 28 of those nights, peaking at 27.8 MW; the brightest single reading anywhere in the box was 137.29 MW. All 12 clusters fall on sites already listed in the Earth Observation Group's 2024 global flare summary, the nearest match 0.65 km away and credited with 0.268 billion cubic metres of gas that year.\n\nWhat this is not: thermal sensors cannot separate a gas flare from a refinery furnace or a kiln, so persistence plus the flare-site match is the argument, not proof. Brightness is not volume — the sensor saturates on big flares. Cloud can hide nights and make steady flaring look intermittent, and cold venting of methane is invisible here. A cluster is a place, not an operator.\n\nWhat would change our mind: a cloud-free month showing the clusters dark, an asset registry identifying non-flare industry at these coordinates, or methane sensing that contradicts combustion.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Persistent night-time clusters: 12 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-27p5n-52p6e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Nights lit, most persistent cluster (of 30): 28 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-27p5n-52p6e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Peak radiative power of top cluster (MW): 27.8 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-27p5n-52p6e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Highest single-pixel radiative power in box (MW): 137.29 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-27p5n-52p6e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Hot-night detections in 30 days: 649 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-27p5n-52p6e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Clusters matching known 2024 flare sites: 12 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-27p5n-52p6e]\n- Gas flared at top matched site in 2024 (BCM): 0.268 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-27p5n-52p6e]\n\nConfidence: high\nCaveats:\n- Thermal signal alone cannot distinguish a flare from a furnace, refinery or kiln.\n- Radiative power is not flared volume; the sensor saturates on the largest flares.\n- Cloud or smoke can hide nights and under-count persistence.\n- The flare-site confirmation is a 2024 annual aggregate: it shows the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week.\n- Only two satellite passes per night; short or intermittent burning between passes is missed.\n- No operator or ownership attribution — each cluster is a location, not a company.\n- Unlit venting of gas is invisible to thermal sensors and would need methane sensing.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"9483c08429884083a6eb40439e4330d8378a26a8525b66e42e98955e5c28a4f8","transcriptSha256":"48ed0c8ee3703aebb91403a8f9dc8ce62118aaf9ee3b90a1e7c810686a45726b","evidenceRefs":["firms-flaring-flare-irn-27p5n-52p6e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26","eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-27p5n-52p6e"]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df9a-3f59-70b7-8e7e-e934b7fe60b7","findingId":"01a0df7f-b6cc-734a-aa32-b840851cf0d5","at":"2026-09-26T21:23:43.065Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"dc54889cd5e4498db9897521e4cd2ecd99a467757f5bd93edb2390f1b48ae6dd","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":2,"note":"All quantitative claims (12 clusters, 28 nights, 27.8 MW, 137.29 MW, 649 detections, 0.268 BCM, 0.65 km) match the evidence values exactly.; Narration explicitly states the flare-vs-other-thermal-source ambiguity, cloud under-counting, FRP-vs-volume distinction, saturation, unlit venting, and lack of operator attribution — matching the blind spots list.; No individual person is named or identifiable; only satellite/agency sources are credited.; AOI tags are ['flaring','oil-gas','discovered','irn', site id] and control:false — this is not a control site, so it is fit for publication as a real finding.","verdict":"publish"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df9a-3f5c-788b-bb0d-5e1417015ab6","findingId":"01a0df7f-b6cc-734a-aa32-b840851cf0d5","at":"2026-09-26T21:23:43.068Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"cea766db432c79024f6684f6f72cab0033b3c50fbd0423c0c8e25739e0194dfb","kind":"status_changed","from":"confirmed","to":"published","reason":"autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)","gates":{"narratedBy":"model:claude-opus-5","reviewedBy":["model:claude-sonnet-5"],"policy":"2026-09-26-autonomous"}}],"inclusion":{"index":151,"leafHash":"27f70ee908e47eeb696fec4e764002204342bcd4fd420941083471a0e5c41788","proof":["74d4f68301456c8835634fa37cf5177a45c8d18a1e7ba9fa75247c5deff16851","7275aabee25c0bc2d62cd38fdcafa06e36323787cb70fdcb09a4b47a76b0b700","464f3970f7f0690f4b379b7a9abff2586174b74cba7dd227c33a40e1fc7d9ad3","091987b67514d05c82bdfea6d21d966a076edd1e18382a6c96bfd4716be39ffd","7213f06b8d14ed3a5b1156a9a9f6238adf157cc0c75ba48bad6be9c01e35759f","ea90af85b57fc2296d71cae3061ddb7573bdaad07fb8fd70a326eb6bfa8a0b0d","1e6b35b77ca24da32136c1f20f9724e4c9e881569d9550e8b5024cf584b97d34"],"size":164,"root":"dee55129d59500208cbd618b2eb9683ec760a3615c26b3a57a3469f08aff9240"}}