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Published

Seven steady night-time heat sources near a known Iranian flare field; top site lit 29 of 30 nights

Flare field IRN 27.76, 52.17 (21 VNF sites) · seen · published

Between 28 August and 26 September 2026, night-time infrared sensors on the NOAA-20 and NOAA-21 satellites picked out 7 clusters of heat within this flare field around 27.76N, 52.17E, each burning at 5 MW or more on at least 5 of the last 30 nights. The most persistent was lit on 29 nights, with a peak single-pixel reading of 26.36 MW. Across the month there were 686 hot-night detections. All 7 clusters sit on sites already listed in the 2024 VIIRS Nightfire annual flare summary — the nearest just 0.12 km away, a site credited with 0.523 billion cubic metres that year.

What this is not: heat alone cannot separate a gas flare from a refinery furnace, a kiln or another industrial burner, and the satellite passes only twice a night, so brief flaring is missed. The brightness figure is not a volume — the sensor saturates on big flares. The 2024 record proves the site is a known flare, not that it burned this week. Cold venting and unlit methane are invisible here.

What would change our mind: a cloudy stretch hiding nights, a site registry showing a non-flare furnace, or methane data from Sentinel-5P or EMIT telling a different story.

Written by AI, then checked by a separate reviewer before publication. Every claim points at the evidence below.

Cloud-free satellite view around Flare field IRN 27.76, 52.17 (21 VNF sites), with the finding area outlined
27.84°N 52.16°ENASA Blue Marble via GIBS · outline = finding area

What we saw

  • NASA fire detections — 7 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-28…2026-09-26); top cluster 29 nights, max 26.36 MW at 27.7207, 52.1754. (Sep 25, 2026) See the source ↗
  • Gas-flare detections (VIIRS Nightfire) — 7 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.523 BCM, 0.12 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary. (Dec 31, 2024) See the source ↗

What it might not be

  • Thermal signal cannot distinguish a flare from a refinery furnace, kiln or other industrial heat source.
  • Cloud or smoke can hide nights, under-counting persistence and mimicking a shut-off.
  • FRP is not flared volume; the sensor saturates on the largest flares.
  • The confirming VNF record is an annual aggregate from 2024, evidence the site is a known flare, not of this month's activity.
  • Only two overpasses per night (~01:30 local); short or intermittent flaring is missed.
  • Unlit venting and cold methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors.
  • No operator or ownership attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company.
  • Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.
  • Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.
  • FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.
  • Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.
  • No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.
  • Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.
  • The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week.

What would change our mind

Newer satellite images that show no change, a correction from the data source, or a reply with evidence from the ground. If that happens, the case is marked “Turned out wrong” — in public — and it stays on this site.

Why this was published

Two separate sources agreed — NASA fire detections, then Gas-flare detections (VIIRS Nightfire) — and a reviewer checked the evidence before it went up.

Right of reply

If a case names or affects you, you can reply. A reply channel that keeps both sides on record is being set up; until then, every case page carries its ledger id so a reply can be attached to it.

Ledger id 01a0df7f-a7f1-7735-acd5-2cb3da82309e

Technical details rule, evidence ids, history, proof
Rule
flaring v1.0
Tier
T2
Tags
flaring, oil-gas, discovered, irn, irn_ups_52.1685e_27.7606n
Confirmed
Yes — independent provider signal, 2026-09-26
Rule FP rate
9.1 % · 1 of 11 decided
Location
27.84°N 52.16°E
Observed
2026-09-25
Opened
2026-09-26 by automatic rule flaring v1.0
  1. candidate
  2. confirmed
  3. published
  4. resolved

Evidence2

alertfirms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt

7 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-28…2026-09-26); top cluster 29 nights, max 26.36 MW at 27.7207, 52.1754.

hotNightDetections 686maxFrp 26.36maxNights 29persistentClusters 7vnfMatched 7vnfTopBcm 0.523vnfTopKm 0.12vnfYear 2024
· flaring v1.0 · firms-flaring-flare-irn-27p8n-52p2e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26
Source ↗
recordeog-vnf-annualConfirming signal

7 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.523 BCM, 0.12 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary.

bcm 0.523vnfMatched 7
· flaring v1.0 · eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-27p8n-52p2e
Source ↗

Context

ENSO El Niño · ONI +1.8

Publication gates

  • Evidence — 1 piece from firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt — met
  • Independent confirmation — a different provider (eog-vnf-annual), 2026-09-26 — met
  • Human approval — 1 of 2 needed at tier 2 — not met
  • Narration — AI-drafted by claude-opus-5 — met
Published
2026-09-26 by AI model
Narrated By
AI model
Reviewed By
AI model
Policy
2026-09-26-autonomous
Note
autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)

History5

  1. status changed → publishedAI model
  2. reviewed → confirmedAI model
  3. narrated → confirmedAI model
  4. confirmed → confirmedautomatic rule flaring v1.0
  5. created → candidateautomatic rule flaring v1.0

Verify

Checkpoint
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1 · 164 entries
Signed root
dee55129d595…ff9240
This case
5 signed events
Leaf
#148 of 164 — this case’s latest event
Leaf hash
9893a3713303…61b338
Proof
7-hash audit path
  1. 9434a709ace2091278bec6d97b23a192b362db94fafa38000e726c990e855eec
  2. 8530470bccc06e96db5d3d2168e5e3fd4a69bb588677e839bae80e237d1d0190
  3. 464f3970f7f0690f4b379b7a9abff2586174b74cba7dd227c33a40e1fc7d9ad3
  4. 091987b67514d05c82bdfea6d21d966a076edd1e18382a6c96bfd4716be39ffd
  5. 7213f06b8d14ed3a5b1156a9a9f6238adf157cc0c75ba48bad6be9c01e35759f
  6. ea90af85b57fc2296d71cae3061ddb7573bdaad07fb8fd70a326eb6bfa8a0b0d
  7. 1e6b35b77ca24da32136c1f20f9724e4c9e881569d9550e8b5024cf584b97d34
Last event
a06bf4b89603…5f2bb4
Note
Checkpoint text
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1
164
3uVRKdWVACCMvWGLLrloPsdgo2FcJrOlejRp8Ir/kkA=

— earthdeck TkCXv1RvXauCpUiWuk11ZCqwdoBJwbds1eETDZCkAWnWOFvcgHuHpllz0Q9kEbLx6iBG7M0UPs+Ejc/MfFN6WPWxNQA=

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