{"finding":{"findingId":"01a0df7f-a7f1-7735-acd5-2cb3da82309e","status":"published","tier":2,"rule":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5,"revisitHours":18}},"title":"Persistent flaring in Flare field IRN 27.76, 52.17 (21 VNF sites): 7 cluster(s), up to 29 nights","summary":"7 VIIRS night-time heat cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW persisted on ≥ 5 of the last 30 nights; the most persistent was lit 29 nights (max 26.36 MW). 7 sit on known VNF 2024 flare sites.","geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[52.175,27.721]},"bbox":[51.89,27.58,52.42,28.11],"aoi":{"id":"flare-irn-27p8n-52p2e","name":"Flare field IRN 27.76, 52.17 (21 VNF sites)","tags":["flaring","oil-gas","discovered","irn","irn_ups_52.1685e_27.7606n"]},"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[]},"blindSpots":["Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.","Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.","FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.","Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.","No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.","Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.","The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week."],"observedAt":"2026-09-25T00:00:00Z","createdAt":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-26T21:23:09.851Z","createdBy":"system:flaring@1.0","confirmed":{"at":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","independence":"provider","signal":{"id":"eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-27p8n-52p2e","kind":"record","source":"eog-vnf-annual","datetime":"2024-12-31T00:00:00Z","href":"https://eogdata.mines.edu/products/vnf/global_gas_flare.html","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"vnfYear":2024}},"summary":"7 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.523 BCM, 0.12 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary.","values":{"bcm":0.523,"vnfMatched":7}}},"evidence":[{"id":"firms-flaring-flare-irn-27p8n-52p2e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-25T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[51.89,27.58,52.42,28.11],"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"limit":20,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5}},"summary":"7 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-28…2026-09-26); top cluster 29 nights, max 26.36 MW at 27.7207, 52.1754.","values":{"hotNightDetections":686,"maxFrp":26.36,"maxNights":29,"persistentClusters":7,"vnfMatched":7,"vnfTopBcm":0.523,"vnfTopKm":0.12,"vnfYear":2024}}],"attribution":null,"narration":{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df99-ade6-744d-b0fe-ae032beb5b50","findingId":"01a0df7f-a7f1-7735-acd5-2cb3da82309e","at":"2026-09-26T21:23:05.830Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"0fa736202f4b4406f3196bd401b6f373eecdc25fffe2a8c8f7dcd3d5528754a6","kind":"narrated","text":"Seven steady night-time heat sources near a known Iranian flare field; top site lit 29 of 30 nights\n\nBetween 28 August and 26 September 2026, night-time infrared sensors on the NOAA-20 and NOAA-21 satellites picked out 7 clusters of heat within this flare field around 27.76N, 52.17E, each burning at 5 MW or more on at least 5 of the last 30 nights. The most persistent was lit on 29 nights, with a peak single-pixel reading of 26.36 MW. Across the month there were 686 hot-night detections. All 7 clusters sit on sites already listed in the 2024 VIIRS Nightfire annual flare summary — the nearest just 0.12 km away, a site credited with 0.523 billion cubic metres that year.\n\nWhat this is not: heat alone cannot separate a gas flare from a refinery furnace, a kiln or another industrial burner, and the satellite passes only twice a night, so brief flaring is missed. The brightness figure is not a volume — the sensor saturates on big flares. The 2024 record proves the site is a known flare, not that it burned this week. Cold venting and unlit methane are invisible here.\n\nWhat would change our mind: a cloudy stretch hiding nights, a site registry showing a non-flare furnace, or methane data from Sentinel-5P or EMIT telling a different story.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Persistent clusters: 7 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-27p8n-52p2e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Nights lit, top cluster (of 30): 29 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-27p8n-52p2e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Peak fire radiative power (MW): 26.36 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-27p8n-52p2e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Hot-night detections: 686 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-27p8n-52p2e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Clusters matching VNF 2024 flare sites: 7 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-27p8n-52p2e]\n- Top VNF site volume, 2024 (BCM): 0.523 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-27p8n-52p2e]\n- Distance to nearest VNF site (km): 0.12 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-27p8n-52p2e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n\nConfidence: high\nCaveats:\n- Thermal signal cannot distinguish a flare from a refinery furnace, kiln or other industrial heat source.\n- Cloud or smoke can hide nights, under-counting persistence and mimicking a shut-off.\n- FRP is not flared volume; the sensor saturates on the largest flares.\n- The confirming VNF record is an annual aggregate from 2024, evidence the site is a known flare, not of this month's activity.\n- Only two overpasses per night (~01:30 local); short or intermittent flaring is missed.\n- Unlit venting and cold methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors.\n- No operator or ownership attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"45d957596ac2054999fb34b66a47b1ef0405f837ab8ba250da0b38f65a57d380","transcriptSha256":"f1920a8a15bc248ce4f7f53187b1db707259f6ab2e22934ff62f7ceeb5e322ea","evidenceRefs":["firms-flaring-flare-irn-27p8n-52p2e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26","eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-27p8n-52p2e"]},"reviews":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df99-bd98-7334-a21b-2c8dc5cb4f70","findingId":"01a0df7f-a7f1-7735-acd5-2cb3da82309e","at":"2026-09-26T21:23:09.848Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"10e08c4c92605e95d379ec7a4221cac8f71d93cb4c14e9dce93f3622b9b1d8a9","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":2,"note":"All numeric claims (7 clusters, 29 nights, 26.36 MW, 686 detections, 0.523 BCM, 0.12 km) match the evidence values exactly; Narration clearly discloses key blind spots: cannot distinguish flare from other industrial heat sources, cloud gaps, FRP vs volume, VNF is an annual aggregate not current activity, overpass limitations, invisibility of cold venting; No individuals or companies are named; text explicitly notes no ownership attribution; AOI is tagged 'flaring/oil-gas/discovered', not control, consistent with a real (non-control) finding suitable for publication","verdict":"publish"}],"notifications":[],"replies":[],"retracted":null,"history":[{"at":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","kind":"created","status":"candidate","actor":"system:flaring@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","kind":"confirmed","status":"confirmed","actor":"system:flaring@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-26T21:23:05.830Z","kind":"narrated","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-opus-5"},{"at":"2026-09-26T21:23:09.848Z","kind":"reviewed","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"},{"at":"2026-09-26T21:23:09.851Z","kind":"status_changed","status":"published","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"}],"eventCount":5,"lastEventHash":"a06bf4b896035974301551a04d5c4e600889c3a68c09d24d1f1867b72b5f2bb4"},"events":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df7f-a7f2-7a48-9256-538ade827902","findingId":"01a0df7f-a7f1-7735-acd5-2cb3da82309e","at":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","actor":"system:flaring@1.0","prev":null,"kind":"created","rule":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5,"revisitHours":18}},"title":"Persistent flaring in Flare field IRN 27.76, 52.17 (21 VNF sites): 7 cluster(s), up to 29 nights","summary":"7 VIIRS night-time heat cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW persisted on ≥ 5 of the last 30 nights; the most persistent was lit 29 nights (max 26.36 MW). 7 sit on known VNF 2024 flare sites.","tier":2,"geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[52.175,27.721]},"bbox":[51.89,27.58,52.42,28.11],"aoi":{"id":"flare-irn-27p8n-52p2e","name":"Flare field IRN 27.76, 52.17 (21 VNF sites)","tags":["flaring","oil-gas","discovered","irn","irn_ups_52.1685e_27.7606n"]},"observedAt":"2026-09-25T00:00:00Z","evidence":[{"id":"firms-flaring-flare-irn-27p8n-52p2e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-25T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[51.89,27.58,52.42,28.11],"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"limit":20,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5}},"summary":"7 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-28…2026-09-26); top cluster 29 nights, max 26.36 MW at 27.7207, 52.1754.","values":{"hotNightDetections":686,"maxFrp":26.36,"maxNights":29,"persistentClusters":7,"vnfMatched":7,"vnfTopBcm":0.523,"vnfTopKm":0.12,"vnfYear":2024}}],"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[]},"blindSpots":["Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.","Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.","FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.","Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.","No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.","Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.","The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week."]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df7f-a7f5-7082-a132-ad61117cc7b6","findingId":"01a0df7f-a7f1-7735-acd5-2cb3da82309e","at":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","actor":"system:flaring@1.0","prev":"092a245736c08fb7172e905e5dd80cfb22c2c2c127885b1e590e12bc3955030b","kind":"confirmed","signal":{"id":"eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-27p8n-52p2e","kind":"record","source":"eog-vnf-annual","datetime":"2024-12-31T00:00:00Z","href":"https://eogdata.mines.edu/products/vnf/global_gas_flare.html","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"vnfYear":2024}},"summary":"7 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.523 BCM, 0.12 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary.","values":{"bcm":0.523,"vnfMatched":7}},"independence":"provider"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df99-ade6-744d-b0fe-ae032beb5b50","findingId":"01a0df7f-a7f1-7735-acd5-2cb3da82309e","at":"2026-09-26T21:23:05.830Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"0fa736202f4b4406f3196bd401b6f373eecdc25fffe2a8c8f7dcd3d5528754a6","kind":"narrated","text":"Seven steady night-time heat sources near a known Iranian flare field; top site lit 29 of 30 nights\n\nBetween 28 August and 26 September 2026, night-time infrared sensors on the NOAA-20 and NOAA-21 satellites picked out 7 clusters of heat within this flare field around 27.76N, 52.17E, each burning at 5 MW or more on at least 5 of the last 30 nights. The most persistent was lit on 29 nights, with a peak single-pixel reading of 26.36 MW. Across the month there were 686 hot-night detections. All 7 clusters sit on sites already listed in the 2024 VIIRS Nightfire annual flare summary — the nearest just 0.12 km away, a site credited with 0.523 billion cubic metres that year.\n\nWhat this is not: heat alone cannot separate a gas flare from a refinery furnace, a kiln or another industrial burner, and the satellite passes only twice a night, so brief flaring is missed. The brightness figure is not a volume — the sensor saturates on big flares. The 2024 record proves the site is a known flare, not that it burned this week. Cold venting and unlit methane are invisible here.\n\nWhat would change our mind: a cloudy stretch hiding nights, a site registry showing a non-flare furnace, or methane data from Sentinel-5P or EMIT telling a different story.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Persistent clusters: 7 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-27p8n-52p2e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Nights lit, top cluster (of 30): 29 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-27p8n-52p2e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Peak fire radiative power (MW): 26.36 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-27p8n-52p2e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Hot-night detections: 686 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-27p8n-52p2e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Clusters matching VNF 2024 flare sites: 7 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-27p8n-52p2e]\n- Top VNF site volume, 2024 (BCM): 0.523 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-27p8n-52p2e]\n- Distance to nearest VNF site (km): 0.12 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-27p8n-52p2e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n\nConfidence: high\nCaveats:\n- Thermal signal cannot distinguish a flare from a refinery furnace, kiln or other industrial heat source.\n- Cloud or smoke can hide nights, under-counting persistence and mimicking a shut-off.\n- FRP is not flared volume; the sensor saturates on the largest flares.\n- The confirming VNF record is an annual aggregate from 2024, evidence the site is a known flare, not of this month's activity.\n- Only two overpasses per night (~01:30 local); short or intermittent flaring is missed.\n- Unlit venting and cold methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors.\n- No operator or ownership attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"45d957596ac2054999fb34b66a47b1ef0405f837ab8ba250da0b38f65a57d380","transcriptSha256":"f1920a8a15bc248ce4f7f53187b1db707259f6ab2e22934ff62f7ceeb5e322ea","evidenceRefs":["firms-flaring-flare-irn-27p8n-52p2e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26","eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-27p8n-52p2e"]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df99-bd98-7334-a21b-2c8dc5cb4f70","findingId":"01a0df7f-a7f1-7735-acd5-2cb3da82309e","at":"2026-09-26T21:23:09.848Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"10e08c4c92605e95d379ec7a4221cac8f71d93cb4c14e9dce93f3622b9b1d8a9","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":2,"note":"All numeric claims (7 clusters, 29 nights, 26.36 MW, 686 detections, 0.523 BCM, 0.12 km) match the evidence values exactly; Narration clearly discloses key blind spots: cannot distinguish flare from other industrial heat sources, cloud gaps, FRP vs volume, VNF is an annual aggregate not current activity, overpass limitations, invisibility of cold venting; No individuals or companies are named; text explicitly notes no ownership attribution; AOI is tagged 'flaring/oil-gas/discovered', not control, consistent with a real (non-control) finding suitable for publication","verdict":"publish"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df99-bd9b-7aca-bd17-0945d7b621a9","findingId":"01a0df7f-a7f1-7735-acd5-2cb3da82309e","at":"2026-09-26T21:23:09.851Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"13f9a7597124b57bd4e9bcfaaf11b8ca3a59dca7a817a72cb2534fc8f05bd310","kind":"status_changed","from":"confirmed","to":"published","reason":"autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)","gates":{"narratedBy":"model:claude-opus-5","reviewedBy":["model:claude-sonnet-5"],"policy":"2026-09-26-autonomous"}}],"inclusion":{"index":148,"leafHash":"9893a3713303b9a227acff0cc09de5575f4479aad6e0fd740fc203cf1b61b338","proof":["9434a709ace2091278bec6d97b23a192b362db94fafa38000e726c990e855eec","8530470bccc06e96db5d3d2168e5e3fd4a69bb588677e839bae80e237d1d0190","464f3970f7f0690f4b379b7a9abff2586174b74cba7dd227c33a40e1fc7d9ad3","091987b67514d05c82bdfea6d21d966a076edd1e18382a6c96bfd4716be39ffd","7213f06b8d14ed3a5b1156a9a9f6238adf157cc0c75ba48bad6be9c01e35759f","ea90af85b57fc2296d71cae3061ddb7573bdaad07fb8fd70a326eb6bfa8a0b0d","1e6b35b77ca24da32136c1f20f9724e4c9e881569d9550e8b5024cf584b97d34"],"size":164,"root":"dee55129d59500208cbd618b2eb9683ec760a3615c26b3a57a3469f08aff9240"}}