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Published

Eight persistent night-time heat sources burning in an Iranian flare field, one lit 25 of 30 nights

Flare field IRN 30.48, 50.48 (76 VNF sites) · seen · published

Between 28 August and 26 September 2026, night-time infrared sensors on the NOAA-20 and NOAA-21 satellites recorded 359 hot-night detections in a known oil and gas flare field near 30.48N, 50.48E. These grouped into 8 clusters that each burned at 5 MW or more on at least 5 of 30 nights. The most persistent burned on 25 nights, with a peak reading of 33.44 MW at that spot; the strongest single reading anywhere in the field was 57.63 MW. All 8 clusters sit on sites listed in the 2024 VIIRS Nightfire annual flare summary, the largest of which reported 0.233 billion cubic metres and lies 0.47 km away.

This is a steady industrial heat signature, not a wildfire or a new event. Thermal sensors cannot separate a gas flare from a refinery furnace or kiln; persistence plus the flare-site match is what argues for flaring. Heat is also not volume — the sensor saturates on the biggest flares, and unlit venting is invisible entirely.

We would revise if the clusters fall outside registered flare infrastructure, if methane sensors show no matching plumes, or if a cloudy month explains gaps in the nightly record.

Written by AI, then checked by a separate reviewer before publication. Every claim points at the evidence below.

Cloud-free satellite view around Flare field IRN 30.48, 50.48 (76 VNF sites), with the finding area outlined
30.27°N 50.66°ENASA Blue Marble via GIBS · outline = finding area

What we saw

  • NASA fire detections — 8 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-28…2026-09-26); top cluster 25 nights, max 33.44 MW at 30.3958, 50.619. (Sep 25, 2026) See the source ↗
  • Gas-flare detections (VIIRS Nightfire) — 8 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.233 BCM, 0.47 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary. (Dec 31, 2024) See the source ↗

What it might not be

  • Thermal data cannot distinguish a gas flare from a refinery furnace, kiln or other industrial heat source.
  • Fire radiative power is not flared volume; the sensor saturates on the largest flares and volumes come only from the annual VNF summary.
  • Cloud or smoke hides nights, so persistence counts can be undercounts.
  • Only two satellite passes per night (~01:30 local); brief or intermittent flaring between passes is missed.
  • The 2024 VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year — it proves the site is a known flare, not this month's activity.
  • No operator or ownership attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company.
  • Unlit venting and cold methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors.
  • Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.
  • Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.
  • FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.
  • Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.
  • No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.
  • Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.
  • The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week.

What would change our mind

Newer satellite images that show no change, a correction from the data source, or a reply with evidence from the ground. If that happens, the case is marked “Turned out wrong” — in public — and it stays on this site.

Why this was published

Two separate sources agreed — NASA fire detections, then Gas-flare detections (VIIRS Nightfire) — and a reviewer checked the evidence before it went up.

Right of reply

If a case names or affects you, you can reply. A reply channel that keeps both sides on record is being set up; until then, every case page carries its ledger id so a reply can be attached to it.

Ledger id 01a0df7f-93df-7f59-9465-cf5bddca5885

Technical details rule, evidence ids, history, proof
Rule
flaring v1.0
Tier
T2
Tags
flaring, oil-gas, discovered, irn, irn_ups_50.4845e_30.4845n
Confirmed
Yes — independent provider signal, 2026-09-26
Rule FP rate
9.1 % · 1 of 11 decided
Location
30.27°N 50.66°E
Observed
2026-09-25
Opened
2026-09-26 by automatic rule flaring v1.0
  1. candidate
  2. confirmed
  3. published
  4. resolved

Evidence2

alertfirms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt

8 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-28…2026-09-26); top cluster 25 nights, max 33.44 MW at 30.3958, 50.619.

hotNightDetections 359maxFrp 57.63maxNights 25persistentClusters 8vnfMatched 8vnfTopBcm 0.233vnfTopKm 0.47vnfYear 2024
· flaring v1.0 · firms-flaring-flare-irn-30p5n-50p5e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26
Source ↗
recordeog-vnf-annualConfirming signal

8 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.233 BCM, 0.47 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary.

bcm 0.233vnfMatched 8
· flaring v1.0 · eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-30p5n-50p5e
Source ↗

Context

ENSO El Niño · ONI +1.8

Publication gates

  • Evidence — 1 piece from firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt — met
  • Independent confirmation — a different provider (eog-vnf-annual), 2026-09-26 — met
  • Human approval — 1 of 2 needed at tier 2 — not met
  • Narration — AI-drafted by claude-opus-5 — met
Published
2026-09-26 by AI model
Narrated By
AI model
Reviewed By
AI model
Policy
2026-09-26-autonomous
Note
autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)

History5

  1. status changed → publishedAI model
  2. reviewed → confirmedAI model
  3. narrated → confirmedAI model
  4. confirmed → confirmedautomatic rule flaring v1.0
  5. created → candidateautomatic rule flaring v1.0

Verify

Checkpoint
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1 · 164 entries
Signed root
dee55129d595…ff9240
This case
5 signed events
Leaf
#145 of 164 — this case’s latest event
Leaf hash
7f6d9f8d8dc3…f85e4d
Proof
7-hash audit path
  1. 0276e7bfbf08ca8c05b4651e8a807cb6f1d343fe8c10f007dc654ba8e67898ce
  2. c658ff95cdcdf621d7f23cc4f48960e764df8fe86fc035acb0f80ae30a9787bb
  3. b33c1f8e02ea003c334a6069e4abab35bda0e0f32845baae19a736ca2752c801
  4. 091987b67514d05c82bdfea6d21d966a076edd1e18382a6c96bfd4716be39ffd
  5. 7213f06b8d14ed3a5b1156a9a9f6238adf157cc0c75ba48bad6be9c01e35759f
  6. ea90af85b57fc2296d71cae3061ddb7573bdaad07fb8fd70a326eb6bfa8a0b0d
  7. 1e6b35b77ca24da32136c1f20f9724e4c9e881569d9550e8b5024cf584b97d34
Last event
4dccc956cff1…b1937f
Note
Checkpoint text
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1
164
3uVRKdWVACCMvWGLLrloPsdgo2FcJrOlejRp8Ir/kkA=

— earthdeck TkCXv1RvXauCpUiWuk11ZCqwdoBJwbds1eETDZCkAWnWOFvcgHuHpllz0Q9kEbLx6iBG7M0UPs+Ejc/MfFN6WPWxNQA=

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